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[國際] 突破敘利亞困局 伐謀伐交伐兵之上

人民受壓迫,奮起革命,爭取自由。 兩年半前,阿拉伯之春席捲北非中東。全世界鼓掌。
& x4 v2 f; ~  B! `6 f+ w& n/ L. Wtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb強人如利比亞的格達費、埃及的穆巴拉克一一倒下。如今只剩敘利亞的阿塞德仍挺立與「叛軍」對抗。9 G( Q& q, ~; ^% X" z" P1 g7 n/ N
敘利亞因內戰死亡目前已十萬人,兩百萬難民(近全國人口十趴)散奔鄰國,中東動盪。八月廿一日,有人使用化學武器,百千人喪生。美國總統歐巴馬揚言:將為人道主持正義,以精準的巡弋飛彈攻擊阿塞德軍事設施,給他教訓。
2 m8 L6 H- a& U2 L8 ^TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。以上表象之下另有文章。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb$ y+ X1 H% B9 X+ o" v: Z1 T; \
一、民主革命?其實是宗派鬥爭。七十四趴敘利亞人民屬回教遜尼派,卻為屬於只有十三趴人口回教什葉派的阿塞德統治。在中東,回教兩派爭鬥根深流長,已一千四百年。敘利亞人民兩年半前要求改革而遊行,不久便被狂熱宗派分子綁架,轉化為宗派的殊死戰。雙方手段殘暴互不相讓。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。1 `2 Z: f$ w8 y  u3 n
二、一國內戰?其實是多國較勁。敘利亞內亂已成國際間代理人戰爭。送人員支持阿塞德的有伊朗、黎巴嫩,以金錢和武器支持「叛軍」的有沙烏地阿拉伯及海灣國家等。
/ M* [. c0 r0 y% t) c, @2 hTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。三、人道用兵?其實是圖保威望。前年,阿塞德武力鎮壓人民,歐巴馬說:「阿塞德該下台」,而阿塞德依然不動。去年,歐巴馬說:「若阿塞德使用化武,就踩過紅線,美國一定武力干預。」現在,紅線已過。歐巴馬擔心的是只說不作,國家威望破產,他自己在國內威望也破產。總統任期剩下三年,國內政策推動將更困難。
4 |9 N4 ^, o4 q& J7 C3 Y) J% bTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。四、證據確鑿?其實是缺乏鐵證。這是九月九日白宮幕僚長麥唐諾所說。阿塞德辯稱:「我們用化武違反邏輯,自己軍隊就在附近。」6 h3 s! E6 C+ [+ b. G
美國動武困難重重。美國人民厭戰,有六成反對。英國—美國最堅強盟友—因國會反對退出聯合軍事行動。只有法國會武力支持,但其國內反對聲浪上升。歐巴馬尋求國會支持,眾議院為在野黨把持,恐怕無法過關。美國更無法獲得聯合國授權支持,因為俄羅斯與中國在安理會一定否決此案。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb" {+ p9 j9 f( @, W  J0 J' g
糟糕的是:教訓到阿塞德並不能停止敘國殺戮,因為支持內戰的力量在敘國外部。更糟糕的是:美國動武目標不明確—不希望阿塞德被打倒,否則敘國會更亂。而且賓拉丹的凱達恐怖分子支持「叛軍」,都屬於遜尼教派,將坐大,對美國不利。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb8 F8 U- @/ S/ w$ e0 o
美國若動武,將又是個不求勝利的戰爭,完全違背麥帥半世紀前,韓戰不求勝之後,痛心疾首的警告:「勝利是無可取代的。」(There is no substitute for victory.)對敘國動武結果一定是使美國士氣更低落。何況,美國國防預算已嚴重削減,動武還要花數十億美元。國家財政將更為拮据。4 y/ x. ~$ m" ^
在此國際政治困局下,教宗方濟入場。九月五日,各國領袖齊聚G20會議之前,他呼籲:大國們對敘國的慘劇不能坐視不管,但動武不能解決問題。應該透過協商對話尋求和平。孫子早說過:「上兵伐謀,其次伐交,其次伐兵。」" E) n4 |- m) T( J- l
九月十日,重大突破。敘利亞在俄羅斯建議下,同意交出化學武器銷毀。北京立刻支持。美國表示若如此將取消動武。歐巴馬聲稱這是他與俄羅斯總統普亭上周私下所提的建議。美方也說之前沒有動武威脅,敘利亞不會讓步。
4 K5 _0 ]' l) k0 f2 u" D似乎歐巴馬以動武威脅伐謀,再與俄國伐交,脫出困局。
7 V6 W7 D# u. z# r但若無教宗的提醒,會有今天的突破嗎?4 y* R2 W8 A+ m9 m
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2013-9-12 11:44 AM 編輯
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奧巴馬攻敘演說有效 克林頓前文膽分析原因0 u. H1 z! _! u$ _$ d5 V" f
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/ Y4 O! K2 X7 O% j8 ?TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。公仔箱論壇: s. F* g3 h$ P2 p$ s. N

, N0 `& Y2 F6 @- X. ?TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。美國總統奧巴馬發表全國電視演說,為尋求國會支持攻打敘利亞的做法向國民解釋。美國有線新聞網絡(CNN)在奧巴馬演說後展開調查,有看過演說的當中,有六成一支持攻敘。在奧巴馬未發表講話前數天,有不少調查都顯示只有約三分一美國人支持攻敘。5.39.217.76; y  o. n& ]2 q' r) D
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CNN其後刊登了前總統克林頓文膽David Kusnet的文章,剖析奧巴馬講話的成功之處。Kusnet曾在1992至1994年間為克林頓效力。他認為奧巴馬的講話能促使民眾支持其決定的原因,有以下數個:
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( j' j' ]& r- _9 X4 }' H* q3 yTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。爭取受眾認同。Kusnet指出,因為美國民眾並不希望戰爭,所以奧巴馬指出自己一直不打算出兵,直至巴沙爾政府在上月以化武傷害平民,希望藉此打動民眾支持出兵的想法。
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% P- C! z$ Y" n擅於說故事。奧巴馬的講話以歷史鋪陳,講述了一戰的戰壕戰,以及二戰的納粹德軍都有使用毒氣以殺害對手甚至平民,及後他才提到近期敘府使用化武的行為,表示做法違反人道原則。
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表明切身影響。Kusnet說奧巴馬有在講話中說到化武會威脅美國。他指出如果敘府未能及時得到教訓,將來美國軍隊會在戰場上面對化武,化武又會輾轉送到恐怖份子手中。5.39.217.768 c7 W- ]7 U" ^/ V
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。; I' C" Z4 v  ^0 f4 S0 S; H
援引美國的民主制度。對於是否攻打敘利亞,輿論意見不一,主戰者認為奧巴馬動作太慢,反戰者認為美國不要再開新戰線。面對兩方聲音,奧巴馬就訴諸民主制度,交由國會決定。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。$ @' h% O/ `! Q0 p% p2 ^) Y
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釋除疑問。奧巴馬沒有自說自話,他的講話中有回答到一些公眾以及國會議員對攻敘議題的常見疑問,例如攻敘會否成為另一場戰役的開始。前總統列根、小布殊、以至英國前首相邱吉爾都有用過類似方法。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5 X( m1 W, r: W3 e: {0 j* s4 q, d/ A; J

/ X4 v& e* h* N! t4 A# o公仔箱論壇有發表好消息。大約在講話結尾,奧巴馬說到俄羅斯早前提議敘利亞交出化武並交由國際社會銷毀。雖然奧巴馬在演說的前面部分一直爭取民眾支持攻敘,話鋒一轉而發表好消息顯得有點突然,但是民眾聽到好消息總會受落。
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9 O; K! m* s$ K6 y2 C% ntvb now,tvbnow,bttvb喚起愛國主義。奧巴馬說美國與別不同的原因,是出於他們能夠及時糾正錯誤。他又總結說,美國永不放棄堅持真理的態度和眼光。5.39.217.76) |8 x2 q/ D* J9 E* l6 r6 M
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以下是奧巴馬的講話全文。
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My fellow Americans, tonight I want to talk to you about Syria, why it matters and where we go from here.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb/ m" c6 C8 Q/ R% g. Q5 q
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Over the past two years, what began as a series of peaceful protests against the oppressive regime of Bashar al-Assad has turned into a brutal civil war. Over 100,000 people have been killed. Millions have fled the country. In that time, America's worked with allies to provide humanitarian support, to help the moderate opposition, and to shape a political settlement, but I have resisted calls for military action because we cannot resolve someone else's civil war through force, particularly after a decade of war in Iraq and Afghanistan.5.39.217.76# N1 B# ]! Z5 c# v

6 O- P& H( l% i( N) z5.39.217.76The situation profoundly changed, though, on August 21st, when Assad's government gassed to death over 1,000 people, including hundreds of children. The images from this massacre are sickening: men, women, children lying in rows, killed by poison gas, others foaming at the mouth, gasping for breath, a father clutching his dead children, imploring them to get up and walk.On that terrible night, the world saw in gruesome detail the terrible nature of chemical weapons and why the overwhelming majority of humanity has declared them off-limits, a crime against humanity and a violation of the laws of war.
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This was not always the case. In World War I, American G.I.s were among the many thousands killed by deadly gas in the trenches of Europe. In World War II, the Nazis used gas to inflict the horror of the Holocaust. Because these weapons can kill on a mass scale, with no distinction between soldier and infant, the civilized world has spent a century working to ban them. And in 1997, the United States Senate overwhelmingly approved an international agreement prohibiting the use of chemical weapons, now joined by 189 governments that represent 98 percent of humanity.On August 21st, these basic rules were violated, along with our sense of common humanity. No one disputes that chemical weapons were used in Syria. The world saw thousands of videos, cell phone pictures, and social media accounts from the attack, and humanitarian organizations told stories of hospitals packed with people who had symptoms of poison gas.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。; M% B' S$ B% w! V

3 [) v3 d( W# P0 Z  N: g& qMoreover, we know the Assad regime was responsible. In the days leading up to August 21st, we know that Assad's chemical weapons personnel prepared for an attack near an area where they mix sarin gas. They distributed gas masks to their troops. Then they fired rockets from a regime-controlled area into 11 neighborhoods that the regime has been trying to wipe clear of opposition forces. Shortly after those rockets landed, the gas spread, and hospitals filled with the dying and the wounded.We know senior figures in Assad's military machine reviewed the results of the attack and the regime increased their shelling of the same neighborhoods in the days that followed. We've also studied samples of blood and hair from people at the site that tested positive for sarin.5.39.217.76, H  m" B: D7 B" T) z1 B: e

; i  A3 D; j! J/ K$ B9 v( L公仔箱論壇When dictators commit atrocities, they depend upon the world to look the other way until those horrifying pictures fade from memory, but these things happened. The facts cannot be denied.The question now is what the United States of America and the international community is prepared to do about it, because what happened to those people -- to those children -- is not only a violation of international law, it's also a danger to our security. Let me explain why.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。# [4 j  x; z* U3 K& B) T/ U

; j5 H/ R$ a' C" @公仔箱論壇If we fail to act, the Assad regime will see no reason to stop using chemical weapons. As the ban against these weapons erodes, other tyrants will have no reason to think twice about acquiring poison gas and using them. Over time, our troops would again face the prospect of chemical warfare on the battlefield, and it could be easier for terrorist organizations to obtain these weapons and to use them to attack civilians.If fighting spills beyond Syria's borders, these weapons could threaten allies like Turkey, Jordan and Israel. And a failure to stand against the use of chemical weapons would weaken prohibitions against other weapons of mass destruction and embolden Assad's ally, Iran, which must decide whether to ignore international law by building a nuclear weapon or to take a more peaceful path.5.39.217.76% M$ [, R( L* |& S
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。4 h- D8 \7 ^5 s$ J8 k
This is not a world we should accept. This is what's at stake. And that is why, after careful deliberation, I determined that it is in the national security interests of the United States to respond to the Assad regime's use of chemical weapons through a targeted military strike. The purpose of this strike would be to deter Assad from using chemical weapons, to degrade his regime's ability to use them, and to make clear to the world that we will not tolerate their use.That's my judgment as commander-in-chief, but I'm also the president of the world's oldest constitutional democracy. So even though I possess the authority to order military strikes, I believed it was right in the absence of a direct or imminent threat to our security to take this debate to Congress. I believe our democracy is stronger when the president acts with the support of Congress, and I believe that America acts more effectively abroad when we stand together. This is especially true after a decade that put more and more war-making power in the hands of the president and more and more burdens on the shoulders of our troops, while sidelining the people's representatives from the critical decisions about when we use force.
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% L* b$ [* X  P# N* `Now, I know that after the terrible toll of Iraq and Afghanistan, the idea of any military action -- no matter how limited -- is not going to be popular. After all, I've spent four-and-a-half years working to end wars, not to start them.Our troops are out of Iraq. Our troops are coming home from Afghanistan. And I know Americans want all of us in Washington -- especially me -- to concentrate on the task of building our nation here at home, putting people back to work, educating our kids, growing our middle class. It's no wonder then that you're asking hard questions.公仔箱論壇8 r( X8 e: S4 @# [2 E

2 q- C! v$ l5 n( p( e1 h5.39.217.76So let me answer some of the most important questions that I've heard from members of Congress and that I've read in letters that you've sent to me. First, many of you have asked, won't this put us on a slippery slope to another war? One man wrote to me that we are still recovering from our involvement in Iraq. A veteran put it more bluntly: This nation is sick and tired of war.My answer is simple. I will not put American boots on the ground in Syria. I will not pursue an open-ended action like Iraq or Afghanistan. I will not pursue a prolonged air campaign like Libya or Kosovo. This would be a targeted strike to achieve a clear objective, deterring the use of chemical weapons and degrading Assad's capabilities.
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Others have asked whether it's worth acting if we don't take out Assad. Now, some members of Congress have said there's no point in simply doing a pinprick strike in Syria.Let me make something clear: The United States military doesn't do pinpricks. Even a limited strike will send a message to Assad that no other nation can deliver.
, {, l. V) K* K3 [  P$ ~I don't think we should remove another dictator with force. We learned from Iraq that doing so makes us responsible for all that comes next. But a targeted strike can makes Assad -- or any other dictator -- think twice before using chemical weapons.Other questions involve the dangers of retaliation. We don't dismiss any threats, but the Assad regime does not have the ability to seriously threaten our military. Any other -- any other retaliation they might seek is in line with threats that we face every day. Neither Assad nor his allies have any interest in escalation that would lead to his demise, and our ally, Israel, can defend itself with overwhelming force, as well as the unshakable support of the United States of America.
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- `# {; D3 l" E# l5.39.217.76Many of you have asked a broader question: Why should we get involved at all in a place that's so complicated and where, as one person wrote to me, those who come after Assad may be enemies of human rights?It's true that some of Assad's opponents are extremists. But Al Qaeda will only draw strength in a more chaotic Syria if people there see the world doing nothing to prevent innocent civilians from being gassed to death.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb( n6 ~* T+ q2 H( q& C$ v5 A2 M
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The majority of the Syrian people, and the Syrian opposition we work with, just want to live in peace, with dignity and freedom. And the day after any military action, we would redouble our efforts to achieve a political solution that strengthens those who reject the forces of tyranny and extremism.Finally, many of you have asked, why not leave this to other countries or seek solutions short of force? As several people wrote to me, we should not be the world's policemen.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5 O5 B: F$ q8 [$ E

) \2 f! p; U# I0 f( N: ?6 Y( VI agree. And I have a deeply held preference for peaceful solutions. Over the last two years, my administration has tried diplomacy and sanctions, warnings and negotiations, but chemical weapons were still used by the Assad regime.However, over the last few days, we've seen some encouraging signs, in part because of the credible threat of U.S. military action, as well as constructive talks that I had with President Putin. The Russian government has indicated a willingness to join with the international community in pushing Assad to give up his chemical weapons. The Assad regime has now admitting that it has these weapons and even said they'd join the Chemical Weapons Convention, which prohibits their use.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。* X8 m2 Q. k, S

% W, a+ e, p7 r3 m  W; g8 M  Atvb now,tvbnow,bttvbIt's too early to tell whether this offer will succeed, and any agreement must verify that the Assad regime keeps its commitments, but this initiative has the potential to remove the threat of chemical weapons without the use of force, particularly because Russia is one of Assad's strongest allies.I have therefore asked the leaders of Congress to postpone a vote to authorize the use of force while we pursue this diplomatic path. I'm sending Secretary of State John Kerry to meet his Russian counterpart on Thursday, and I will continue my own discussions with President Putin.
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I've spoken to the leaders of two of our closest allies -- France and the United Kingdom -- and we will work together in consultation with Russia and China to put forward a resolution at the U.N. Security Council requiring Assad to give up his chemical weapons and to ultimately destroy them under international control.We'll also give U.N. inspectors the opportunity to report their findings about what happened on August 21st, and we will continue to rally support from allies from Europe to the Americas, from Asia to the Middle East, who agree on the need for action.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb- G7 Q4 X" [4 W) ]# w
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Meanwhile, I've ordered our military to maintain their current posture to keep the pressure on Assad and to be in a position to respond if diplomacy fails. And tonight I give thanks, again, to our military and their families for their incredible strength and sacrifices.My fellow Americans, for nearly seven decades, the United States has been the anchor of global security. This has meant doing more than forging international agreements; it has meant enforcing them. The burdens of leadership are often heavy, but the world's a better place because we have borne them.
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5 p, M6 A% }" Q  }tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbAnd so to my friends on the right, I ask you to reconcile your commitment to America's military might with the failure to act when a cause is so plainly just.To my friends on the left, I ask you to reconcile your belief in freedom and dignity for all people with those images of children writhing in pain and going still on a cold hospital floor, for sometimes resolutions and statements of condemnation are simply not enough.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb/ X- j* P, c2 y* ?9 x
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Indeed, I'd ask every member of Congress and those of you watching at home tonight to view those videos of the attack, and then ask, what kind of world will we live in if the United States of America sees a dictator brazenly violate international law with poison gas and we choose to look the other way?Franklin Roosevelt once said, "Our national determination to keep free of foreign wars and foreign entanglements cannot prevent us from feeling deep concern when ideas and principles that we have cherished are challenged."0 `' n; N5 }- X; q

2 R' [, C0 J1 c$ {: ?公仔箱論壇Our ideals and principles, as well as our national security, are at stake in «Syria», along with our leadership of a world where we seek to ensure that the worst weapons will never be used.America is not the world's policeman. Terrible things happen across the globe, and it is beyond our means to right every wrong, but when with modest effort and risk we can stop children from being gassed to death and thereby make our own children safer over the long run, I believe we should act.
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That's what makes America different. That's what makes us exceptional. With humility, but with resolve, let us never lose sight of that essential truth.
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投書《紐時》 普京促奧巴馬放棄攻敘tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb0 t( _3 Q0 A$ M) A/ c
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俄羅斯總統普京投書《紐約時報》,對奧巴馬週二表示願與俄繼續就敘利亞問題對話表示歡迎,呼籲美國及總統奧巴馬放棄軍事介入敘利亞,表明若美國放棄攻敘,美俄在其他事務方面的合作會更順利。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。+ \) |! A/ }1 A2 F) [1 Q- m+ R" [

3 ?+ D9 Q% d8 a1 a$ \1 O1 XTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。本週初,敘利亞政府宣佈接受俄羅斯的建議,將化學武器交出;奧巴馬及後發表全國電視講話,宣佈已要求國會暫緩就攻敘議案表決,但強調仍考慮攻敘,不過會等待與俄協商的結果。普京今在《紐約時報》撰文回應奧巴馬。公仔箱論壇6 W6 |, d- M; i/ j$ b7 n( M

5 A% Y% M9 Q& E/ U$ ~5.39.217.76普京指,自己決定直接向美國民眾及政治領袖,就敘利亞問題發言,是因為美俄社會之間溝通不足。早前有評論指,由於敘利亞問題及斯諾登事件,美俄關係近日已惡化至冷戰以來的最低點。
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% E2 e; i- c' l4 stvb now,tvbnow,bttvb普京警告,美國若打算繞過聯合國安理會,自行對他國發動攻擊,或會使聯合國步以前的國際聯盟(The League of Nations)後塵,因失去實際影響力而瓦解。他又指美國的攻擊將使整個中東地區、以至北非均更加動盪,觸發新一輪恐怖主義攻擊。普京形容,敘利亞內戰並非爭取民主之戰,而是多宗教國家內政府與反對派的武力衝突,強調革命軍中也有國際公認的恐怖主義組織,以及阿爾蓋達成員。他又重申,施放化學武器可能是革命軍引來西方國家介入的手段。
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普京指,俄羅斯主張和平對話解決敘利亞問題,俄方要捍衞的不是敘利亞政府,而是國際法。普京又指,美國已習慣了軍事介入他國內部紛爭,令人擔憂;若國際法不再具約束力,越來越多國家尋求其他方法保護自己,千方百計獲取大殺傷力武器也就可以理解。他呼籲停止訴諸軍事力量,回到外交與政治途徑解決問題。- \! h# `' V0 @* T* p8 b# B7 C) n

  w. h9 T7 X- L: r1 L: z! V( v5.39.217.76普京在文末質疑奧巴馬週二全國講話中的「美國例外」論調,指華府向國民鼓吹這種論調極為危險。普京又指,自己與奧巴馬在公在私的關係中,信任均不斷增強;他指若敘利亞可免受軍事攻擊,美俄之間的信任會更強,促進其他事務上的合作。
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