[港澳台] 香港看烏克蘭

serrurier

香港看烏克蘭
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在香港談論烏克蘭的政經格局似乎有點「干卿底事」。但是，香港是全球第三大金融中心，特別是近年成為亞洲區的理財投資中心，投資的範圍遍及全球。
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烏克蘭政局牽動也反映着全球變局，香港怎能不看烏克蘭局勢的變化怎樣衝擊國際的資產價格呢？而且，國際金融已經一體化，各地的資產價格變動決定於資金流向。如資金從歐洲流出，會流往哪方呢？來亞洲和香港的話，則香港便會大受裨益，怎能不關心呢？TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。' O1 i& Z/ e7 G5 n/ o$ z

: T; d4 C" o: u9 t7 Q. o* S公仔箱論壇從地緣政治與經濟看，烏克蘭涉及歐洲與俄羅斯。歐洲在歐債危機之後正恢復元氣，但烏克蘭局勢惡化則會打擊正在復甦的東歐經濟，俄羅斯天然氣的供應也觸動着歐洲的能源供應與價格。歐美若制裁俄羅斯，俄的資本市場價格會跌，經濟增長會減緩，但天然氣等供應中國會增加，損失有限。公仔箱論壇) H7 H# a1 ?/ A. H5 s) D

& Y- x; _4 F& q* dtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb而美國在烏克蘭若眼白白看俄羅斯收拾臨時政府，重新穩定烏克蘭，這會是繼敍利亞之後美國霸權的又一次重大挫折。( K6 ^( F7 }: Z% X8 G
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歐洲今後只能與俄羅斯保持良好關係。在亞洲，日本會不會相信在中日衝突中，美國會出兵救助呢？美國之重返亞洲，也只是慫恿日本、菲律賓去騷擾中國，製造麻煩，卻沒能正面壓迫中國。這是美國弱勢所致，不是美國改變其外交政策的方向。若中國堅定，美國也同樣眼白白地看着習近平清理貪腐，中國復興。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。7 |8 R2 K0 {$ Y8 S

  a- Y) s6 \: s" X1 F* o: K5.39.217.76烏克蘭之局怎樣變化，啟示與影響良多。在香港，一是金融因素，二是中國國家安全因素，不能不關心留意了。

felicity2010

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Zaki Laïdi: Europe After Ukraine
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" G) }% i3 c* @% }0 q, mTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。PARIS – When unexpected crises erupt, people tend to assume that nothing will ever be the same – exactly the conclusion that many Europeans have drawn in the aftermath of Russia’s annexation of Crimea.Are they right?TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。# B3 M% E& s+ c$ Q) _
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Though European leaders have almost unanimously condemned Russia’s actions in Ukraine, assessments of the security threat that Russia poses vary widely. Poland and the Baltic countries are among those most worried by Russia’s behavior, while the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and Bulgaria remain circumspect about adopting a confrontational approach – a stance shared by countries like Spain and Portugal, which do not rely on Russian energy supplies.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, ~# {- p: m- ?  G- D6 a) a

$ {" |5 m- o5 d公仔箱論壇These divergent attitudes can be explained by the vast differences between European countries’ histories and strategic perspectives. Poland and Russia have invaded and occupied one another’s territory for centuries. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were all Soviet republics, for which opposition to Russia was an essential feature of the rebuilding process. With large Russophone minorities in Estonia and Latvia,Russian President Vladimir Putin’s justification for annexing Crimea – the need to defend supposedly threatened ethnic kin – plays directly to these countries’ deepest-seated anxieties.
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5 L% R7 q4 y: O4 V& @. UTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Of course, the Czechs, Slovaks, and Hungarians– all former Soviet satellites – also have bitter memories of Russia. But their response to their difficult histories has been to adopt a low profile and avoid taking a stand on major international issues. Branded by their proximity (if not vulnerability) to more powerful neighbors, they have internalized their political and strategic marginalization.
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And, to some degree, these countries’ stance reflects an accurate perception of European politics. After all, Europe’s position toward Russia will ultimately be decided by four major powers:Germany, Russia’s major industrial and energy partner; the United Kingdom,Russia’s banker; France, Russia’s military collaborator; and Poland, Ukraine’s sponsor.' b2 c& B+ B1 g' d. j5 l

) \0 x: [5 u- J' k公仔箱論壇Of the four, Germany is by far the most influential. By cutting ties with Germany, Russia would effectively sever all links with the West, thereby accelerating its own decline. Worse, national decline would likely strengthen, rather than weaken, the Putin regime’s predatory, chauvinistic tendencies.
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The fact is that Russia is not an emerging power. It is a rentier power living off its limited natural-resource assets –with a shrinking population, no less. Former Russian President Dmitri Medvedev seemed to understand this; in an effort to modernize and diversify Russia’s economy, he sought to strengthen the bilateral relationship with Germany. Since Putin returned to the presidency, however, that initiative has been shelved.
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, z; R- [/ _- k# ?: w6 o% ?公仔箱論壇This is not to say that Putin is entirely oblivious to Germany’s value. He recognizes that threatening an energy-export freeze to strong-arm Germany – which is highly dependent on Russian gas – would cause permanent damage to Russia’s commercial credibility, weakening the industry that forms the backbone of its economy.
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% J3 H1 z6 Q& j: V9 o5 t公仔箱論壇Moreover, such a move could boost Iran’s appeal in the European energy market, creating unwanted competition for Russia.Even without adding energy exports to its diplomatic arsenal, Russia may take steps to mitigate that risk, by encouraging Iran to delay reaching a final nuclear agreement with the international community.公仔箱論壇  D' J. g. I. g% v$ k
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The UK’s position on Russia is more ambiguous. While Prime Minister David Cameron’s government has staunchly opposed Russia’s actions in Ukraine, the City of London is determined to retain the Russian oligarchs as clients. If tensions in Ukraine continue to escalate,Cameron, whose tenure so far has been characterized by weakness and hesitancy,will be forced to assert himself.5.39.217.76! w- c  K( N& H6 U, B- L

% |) k0 [* [1 H3 J) h6 u; etvb now,tvbnow,bttvbFor its part, France has experienced a distinct reversal in its relationship with Russia. Historically, France viewed Russia as a useful counter-balance to the United States. But, in recent years,France and Russia have repeatedly been on opposite sides of major international issues – such as Libya, Syria, and Iran – while French interests have become increasingly aligned with America’s. Though France will avoid any unnecessary confrontation with Russia, the Ukraine crisis has underscored the demise of the Franco-Russian alliance. tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb( c8 z! M5 L- B* @$ o
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Poland’s role in the current crisis is slightly different. It is responsible for defending Ukraine’s interests, while helping to moderate the fervor of nationalist hardliners.公仔箱論壇: V* i4 @- E% A  y/ p; ^+ O, G
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Led by these four powers, Europe will face two strategic tests. The first concerns energy. Efforts to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian supplies have so far failed to yield impressive results,though Europe is in a slightly better position than it was a few years ago. The only way to ensure further progress is to adopt alternative resources and build a unified energy market. Though the Russian threat alone will not be enough to harmonize national energy interests entirely, European leaders should take advantage of the opportunity to move closer to that goal.
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The second test concerns security. Europe needs a coherent doctrine that goes beyond the current European Security Strategy. Drafted in 2003, after the outbreak of the Iraq War, it includes only weak operational content and does not consider the Russian energy risk seriously. Here, too, crisis breeds opportunity.
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But the most likely strategic outcome of the Ukrainian crisis is not an end to Europe’s inertia; rather, it is the revitalization of transatlantic ties, with America, having underestimated Europe’s importance, recommitting to NATO. While Europe would be better served by bolstering its own defense capacity, a reinforced transatlantic relationship could offer other benefits. For example, it could help to accelerate negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.
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+ p5 C% [' B7 P# I" E# y8 ?# ^* bIt may well turn out that the international order will never be the same in the wake of the Ukraine crisis. The question now is whether Europe’s leaders can ensure that whatever outcome emerges enhances European security. For that, a unified approach must be the first step.
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Zaki Laïdi is Professor of International Relations at L'Institut d’études politiques de Paris (Sciences Po). His most recent book is Le reflux de l'Europe.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb; p6 {- s7 n" |4 n7 Q/ k
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。; s0 n4 g7 c! l/ l- C

felicity2010

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Harold James: The West’s Financial Arsenal
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& E/ X5 W7 r6 X, M6 i' ^; v公仔箱論壇PRINCETON – The revolution in Ukraine and Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea have generated a serious security crisis in Europe. But, with Western leaders testing a new kind of financial warfare,the situation could become even more dangerous.
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& @' t& q* k# G0 M# q% f公仔箱論壇A democratic, stable, and prosperous Ukraine would be a constant irritant – and rebuke – to President Vladimir Putin’s autocratic and economically sclerotic Russian Federation. In order to prevent such an outcome, Putin is trying to destabilize Ukraine, by seizing Crimea and fomenting ethnic conflict in the eastern part of the country.  X# W' ^$ \* L! c# U6 A6 z
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At the same time, Putin is attempting to boost Russia’s appeal by doubling Crimeans’ pensions, boosting the salaries of the region’s 200,000 civil servants, and constructing large, Sochi-style infrastructure, including a $3 billion bridge across the Kerch Strait. This strategy’s long-term sustainability is dubious, owing to the strain that it will put on Russia’s public finances. But it will nonetheless serve Putin’s goal of projecting Russia’s influence.( ?% r! _" K+ N. v( v

9 [( w1 t# }# htvb now,tvbnow,bttvbFor their part, the European Union and the United States have no desire for military intervention to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. But verbal protests alone would make the West look ridiculous and ineffective to the rest of the international community, ultimately giving rise to further – and increasingly far-ranging –security challenges. This leaves Western powers with one option: to launch a financial war against Russia.
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As the former US Treasury official Juan Zarate revealed in his recent memoir Treasury’s War, the US spent the decade after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks developing a new set of financial weapons to use against America’s enemies – first Al Qaeda, then North Korea and Iran,and now Russia. These weapons included asset freezes and blocking rogue banks’ access to international finance.
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When the Ukrainian revolution began, the Russian banking system was already over-extended and vulnerable. But the situation became much worse with the toppling of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and the annexation of Crimea, which triggered a stock-market panic that weakened the Russian economy considerably and depleted the assets of Russia’s powerful oligarchs.公仔箱論壇' y( Q: B, T9 _7 \* h

6 L* o8 n+ T. t! ZIn a crony capitalist system, threatening the governing elite’s wealth rapidly erodes loyalty to the regime. For the corrupt elite, there is a tipping point beyond which the opposition provides better protection for their wealth and power – a point that was reached in Ukraine as the Maidan protests gathered momentum.
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Putin’s public speeches reveal his conviction that the EU and the US cannot possibly be serious about their financial war,which, in his view, would ultimately hurt their highly complex and interconnected financial markets more than Russia’s relatively isolated financial system. After all, the link between financial integration and vulnerability was the main lesson of the crisis that followed the US investment bank Lehman Brothers’ collapse in 2008.
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In fact, Lehman was a small institution compared to the Austrian, French, and German banks that have become highly exposed to Russia’s financial system through the practice of using deposits from Russian companies and individuals to lend to Russian borrowers. Given this, a Russian asset freeze could be catastrophic for European – indeed,global – financial markets.5.39.217.766 Z6 q6 c1 `* `
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Putin’s plan for destabilizing Ukraine is thus two-pronged: capitalize on linguistic or national animosities in Ukraine to foster social fragmentation, while taking advantage of Western – especially European – financial vulnerabilities. Indeed, Putin sometimes likes to frame it as a contest pitting him against the power of financial markets.
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The arms race that preceded World War I was accompanied by exactly the same mixture of military reluctance and eagerness to experiment with the power of markets. In 1911, the leading textbook on the German financial system, by the veteran banker Jacob Riesser, warned that, “The enemy, however, may endeavor to aggravate a panic…by the sudden collection of outstanding claims, by an unlimited sale of our home securities, and by other attempts to deprive Germany of gold. Attempts may also be made to dislocate our capital, bill, and securities markets, and to menace the basis of our system of credit and payments.”
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' K* o% U) ?5 |" U, B. m8 M( wtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbPoliticians began to grasp the potential consequences of financial vulnerability only in 1907, when they faced a financial panic that originated in the US but that had serious consequences for continental Europe (and, in some ways, prefigured the Great Depression). That experience taught every country to make its own financial system more resilient to ward off potential attacks, and that attacks could be a devastating response to diplomatic pressure.5 b- J% b: h& G1 N) j8 A; q

! d8 C% ?$ d$ O1 O" Z6 {: Z5.39.217.76That is exactly what happened in 1911, when a dispute over control of Morocco spurred France to organize the withdrawal of DM200 million invested in Germany. But Germany was prepared and managed to ward off the attack. Indeed, German bankers proudly noted that the crisis of confidence hit the Paris market much harder than markets in Berlin or Hamburg.9 C1 t' [$ [! o) h. A9 H
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Countries’ efforts to protect their financial systems often centered on increased banking supervision and, in many cases,enlarging the central bank’s authority to include the provision of emergency liquidity to domestic institutions. Subsequent debates about financial reform in the US reflected this imperative, with some of the US Federal Reserve’s founders pointing out the military and financial applications of the term “reserve.”. e8 r" r# C4 O/ a4 v( }. @* P

/ {( A1 m$ d. B( i! n" SAt that time, financial-reform efforts were driven by the notion that building up financial buffers would make the world safe. But this belief fueled excessive confidence among those responsible for the reforms, preventing them from anticipating that military measures would soon be needed to protect the economy. Instead of being an alternative to war, the financial arms race made war more likely – as it may well be doing with Russia today.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。3 A! W6 x8 W+ F7 }, K3 e" h- b4 F
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/ t0 y" E, u7 Z% KHarold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University, Professor of History at the European University Institute,Florence, and a senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation. A specialist on German economic history and on globalization, he is the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle, Krupp: A History of the Legendary German Firm, and Making the European Monetary Union.4 r! h) r- `& k2 z6 \4 t, k6 {

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felicity2010

Armed men seize police headquarters in eastern UkraineTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。  ^; _# Y, _* J0 v
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felicity2010

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' h* A6 g0 i& C8 i5 G; D( tThe Economist: Eastern Ukraine  Back to the barricades& O* V8 O+ @4 B8 x, u# c, G3 z
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THE situation in eastern Ukraine has moved into a new and ominous phase. Shooting was reported on April 12th in Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, two towns in which disciplined, armed and uniformed men seized control of police buildings. Arsen Avakov, Ukraine’s acting minister of the interior, accused Russia of “an act of aggression”.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb4 V. ~$ d; v! s( ?! ~  q9 t

0 g' @9 C- n6 o8 Z3 ^$ a6 XNo troops have crossed the border in the conventional military sense but what is now playing out across the east,including the seizure of the interior ministry building in Donetsk, appears co-ordinated and has the hallmarks of a Russian operation. Men have appeared in unmarked uniforms as they did in the run up to the annexation of Crimea in March. Roadblocks are springing up. Pro-Russian forces now control the two main roads from Kiev to the east.
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% P, u+ |$ S6 a& ?3 tTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。In the Donetsk interior ministry, uniformed members of the Berkut, the riot police force, which was officially disbanded following the fall of the government of president Viktor Yanukovich in February, are in control. On the morning on April 12th the local interior ministry chief was forced to resign. A new one has been appointed but a source in the police station said that he was out of the country and had promised to return by Monday.
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7 H  p2 i* z2 c, A/ Q# E" E公仔箱論壇As night fell, masked men were strolling in with bags of food, bottles of water and boxes of biscuits. Posters of the so-called Donetsk Republic declared by pro-Russian activists who have held the city’s main administration building since April 6th had been sellotaped over the police insignia on the walls. & s/ y" |+ e# E; ?

. x+ ^7 U/ @% r; h+ k2 C9 J1 GAnswering the question of why policemen had switched sides, Vitaly, who would only give his first name, said: “We were on this side from birth”.+ b, [( X, I% E. E. `

8 f0 j" A1 l2 Y0 bTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Citizens of Donetsk, which is an overwhelmingly Russian-speaking city, are going about their business as usual.On Saturday there were only a few hundred gathered by the barricades in front of the administration building. No one seemed to think that war was coming or that there was a significant risk of one.
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1 e* |5 |3 T1 I, ~+ O) g/ X5.39.217.76No one appears to be laying in stocks of flour, oil and the other staples people usually buy when there is a fear of war. Tamara Budkovska, a 57-year-old handing out newspapers in front of the occupied administration building, said that there would not be a war, “because the Berkut is with us and the police is with us”. She added that Americans in uniform had come to Donetsk but had “refused to attack us”. Russia’s media is now engaged in what is regarded by Ukrainians as a fully fledged disinformation campaign, the main thrust of which is that the new government in Kiev is one of“fascists”.
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' X! X, o' k- ~! h5 h% mTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。If Russia’s aim was to provoke major uprisings in the east, to provide an excuse to intervene militarily or force federalisation on Ukraine, that has failed, at least for now. Instead, a new phase has begun which is following a pattern similar to that seen in the run up to the annexation of Crimea.
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felicity2010

沈旭暉: 「烏克蘭聯邦制」：普京的下一步棋？公仔箱論壇$ d, l9 o7 G# U& @5 H

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俄羅斯吞併克里米亞後，烏克蘭局勢如何收拾？普京會否在其他東烏克蘭地區慫慂公投，乃至接納諸如頓涅茨克等地區加入俄羅斯聯邦？這問題困擾了國際觀察家整個月，但近日普京的策略似乎略為明朗化，就是通過親信政治分析員馬爾科夫（Sergei Markov）放風，提出讓烏克蘭修憲，改為採取「聯邦制」，以保障俄羅斯利益。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb- u: n/ h4 |+ a' \8 h& h

2 {8 }" \# s  s! _公仔箱論壇在戰略層面，這無疑是划算的。只要烏克蘭中央政府持續弱化，地方政府尾大不掉，就算未來的烏克蘭中央政府親西方，乃至加入歐盟、甚至北約，對親俄的東烏克蘭而言，影響也是有限。
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弱化中央　消化東部公仔箱論壇$ G% e* ]/ P. T+ ]( R7 U, R- k
而只要俄羅斯和烏東地方領袖建立穩固的同盟關係，經濟上將其「消化」，普京也可以不再理會基輔政府。更重要的是，這方案對西方而言亦非不能接受，起碼能避免危機進一步惡化，也保證了一定勢力範圍的重劃。
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8 i& b- L, a5 f  `/ N9 z3 L) ~% B. \問題是，「烏克蘭聯邦制」就能解決所有問題嗎？2 W9 Q% L) |: T; n0 Z9 A& |

. S" h; l, D& U, M/ l/ i8 e0 }答案恐怕是否定的，因為俄羅斯的「消化烏東」計劃，必會對「聯邦制」的「一國」層面帶來挑戰。舉例說，烏克蘭變天後，俄羅斯提出大幅增加向烏克蘭出口的天然氣價格，明顯這是「政治價」，但假如烏克蘭改行聯邦制，東部省份會否獲得廉價天然氣？假如俄羅斯的經濟政策對東西烏克蘭差別對待，那俄羅斯可否進一步單單與東烏克蘭建立關稅聯盟？這樣一來，烏克蘭就名存實亡。5.39.217.769 V2 r/ V2 w1 g7 _: z! _
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說到底，聯邦制不一定等於地方主義盛行（「俄羅斯聯邦」也是行聯邦制），沒有聯邦制也不一定等於沒有地方主義（分離主義處處的西班牙就是例子）。只是世界各國由聯邦制走向單一制的案例眾多，反其道而行的也不是沒有，但成功例子卻甚少，而且通常是戰爭的產品。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb2 V& y- I/ C+ t5 Z( c8 n

7 F# A$ K% }8 s+ ~3 O埃塞俄比亞、索馬里、伊拉克、波斯尼亞等，都是箇中例子。在這清單中，除了波斯尼亞近年經濟發展迅速，逐步走出慘烈的戰爭陰影，其他似乎都在邁向分裂。何況烏克蘭本來就是貪污嚴重的國度，一旦改制奉行聯邦，在制度更改、資產轉移的過程，也是既得利益階層上下其手的時候，可能令其他本可避免的矛盾激化。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。4 W* ^6 r) @7 \4 o$ \5 v7 @
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俄羅斯不願意讓烏克蘭全面倒向西方，所以要弱化、實質肢解烏克蘭，然而就算出現「烏克蘭聯邦制」，恐怕這也只屬過渡性質，就像昔日西方提出讓「塞爾維亞和黑山」結成聯邦，也阻止不了其進一步分裂。
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俄羅斯不能做得更多，只因目前烏克蘭民調顯示，就是在東部的親俄地區，一般民眾也情願國家保持統一，而不是四分五裂。但一旦聯邦制出現，十年後的民調，東部分離主義的傾向卻可能大為增加，屆時不一定要獨立，但地方政府權限卻可能與獨立無異。烏克蘭政府會同意嗎？TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。2 u( S/ p+ W( T, B

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felicity2010

孔誥烽﹕美國霸權衰落  言之尚早5.39.217.769 O# ^; Z: u( p* B8 r. O# |

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烏克蘭革命，引發普京在東烏克蘭攪局，策動俄裔人佔多的克里米亞公投獨立，併入俄羅斯。俄國以這招修復蘇聯崩潰後失去的領土，並不新鮮，在2008年對喬治亞也成功使用過。美國嚴辭譴責，說要制裁俄羅斯，但似乎並無什麽板斧。美國力撐烏國，也制止不到烏國分裂的勢頭。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, J% R  I+ X; C$ O. @
很多人認為美國在烏克蘭局勢上一籌莫展，乃是美國國力衰退的又一明證。9 q2 ^# I& b) M7 L2 n5 L

# ^; t- ~5 v8 ?8 @. O9 C. f  d公仔箱論壇相信美國衰落論的朋友，都喜歡引茉莉花革命推翻親美強人、美國無力控制中東局勢，或是以金磚四國崛起、取代美國成為世界經濟火車頭為例，說明美國正加速衰落。
; g4 w1 O# O: x% N& r+ ]TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。
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但美國是否完全失去對中東局勢和世界經濟的控制？細心觀察，其實又並非那麽簡單。最近美國為首的西方國家對伊朗實施的經濟封鎖逐漸生效，伊朗核問題有望解決。而美國準備結束量寬，立即使之前10年勢如破竹的新興市場亮起紅燈，均顯示美國的全球影響力，仍不容小覷。( j$ ^' H. t6 A+ q, }. A) W6 M! U

2 G, Y/ }! f. q8 l0 ^5.39.217.76公仔箱論壇1 m. T2 ]2 Y8 \  B" W) h, f/ \
美國能源革命  增加中東政策彈性
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9 x" ?# R* K- U# r0 `TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。美國與英法德，加俄國與中國在去年11月底於日內瓦與伊朗達成初步協議。根據協議，伊朗會限制濃縮鈾的提煉，美國與西方國家則局部放開對伊朗的經濟制裁。上星期，伊朗外長表示伊朗與美國有關協議細節的談判，已達五到六成共識，兩國應可在今年7月達成最後協議。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。' s6 v' m" w8 s# {, t* x$ o
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。8 x- \# k( F  q# {# Q2 v4 N
伊朗經濟在多年制裁下，陷於崩潰邊緣，迫使保守的教士會議在去年讓有改革傾向的魯哈尼在假普選勝出，代替對西方十分強硬反美前總統內賈德。伊朗與西方國家達成協議，體現了伊朗統治階層刻意要改善與西方關係以紓緩經濟危機的新取向。
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不過在美伊修好的氣氛下，以色列卻表現十分不悅。以色列總理內塔尼亞胡，一點都不給奧巴馬臉，在美伊達成初步協議後，第一時間出來說這不是一個歷史里程碑，而是歷史大錯，只會讓伊朗獲得喘息空間；伊朗喘定後便會重啓核計劃。美國與以色列近年在中東問題上愈走愈遠，歸根究柢，與美國——中東經濟關係結構的改變有很大關係。3 z3 V9 w6 P  m

  j! }  `$ C' Y  I2 s5.39.217.76美國在二戰後的中東政策，極受美國和世界經濟的能源需求主導。美國通過大力支持以色列這個美國在中東區內的代理人國家和其他親美右翼獨裁者，確保中東地區的石油順利輸到美國和美國的盟友。
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. h; p. [; ]. d1 ~3 x但2000年代美國發生能源革命，能源公司發展出水力壓裂法，將藏在美國地底頁岩的大量天然氣和石油提出到地面。自此美國從中東輸入的石油能源大幅下降。有權威能源智庫的研究報告指出，美國在2016年將取代沙特阿拉伯成為全球最大產油國。在短短10年，美國便已經擺脫對中東的能源依賴，變成舉足輕重的能源輸出國。
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美國擺脫對中東能源的依賴，終使美國調整中東政策，不再費太多心力對區內事事控制，也不再需要依靠以色列。所以在茉莉花革命時美國可以放手給示威者推翻自己一手扶植的獨裁者，讓原來的盟國步向政治不確定。在伊朗問題上，美國也可以不怕以色列的反應，大膽與伊朗談判，令擾攘多年的伊朗核問題有望解決。問題一旦解決，「美國已無法控制中東」的講法，便大打折扣。( l& A$ ?, Y* Q: h2 f

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" [  C. ]3 n, b5 f; Z( }8 P金磚四國：成也美元、敗也美元
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另一個大打折扣的，還有「金磚崛起、美國沒落」的說法。
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金磚四國的概念，源自2001年美國投資銀行高盛的一份報告。報告指出，巴西、俄羅斯、印度和中國的經濟，將持續高速增長，到了21世紀中，他們的經濟總量，將佔全球經濟總和一半以上，超越傳統歐美發達國家。高盛將這4個國家的英文名字——Brazil,Russia, India, China——字頭，合成BRIC一詞。這便是BRIC的由來。高盛在報告中，呼籲投資者多在這4個新興國家找投資機會。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb1 E. i4 [+ ~* t4 L: C9 h
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2001年之後，美國投資銀行推出和炒作BRIC和新興市場這類概念，是因為美國不斷減息，美元不斷貶值，所以他們需要幫客戶找外國的投資機會。這類有關BRIC的預測，亦很容易成為自我實現預言，因為只要這個概念在西方國家深入民心，便會帶動愈來愈多國際游資投向該4國，帶動這些國家的繁榮。大家講多了，金磚四國的領導精英，亦開始覺得自己的國家舉足輕重，要多跟其餘3國合作。在2009年，4國領袖終於在俄羅斯舉行了第一次金磚峰會，討論金融危機爆發後的世界大勢。2013年，金磚領袖在南非舉行第五次峰會，宣布成立金磚銀行，貸款給發展中國家，並宣布讓南非加入，自此金磚四國，便變五國，BRIC也變成BRICS。
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; i0 d7 _* o# \, Q* Xtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb金磚四/五國的峰會，現在只停留在交流意見的階段，去年提出的金磚銀行，每個國家願意承擔的初始資本亦不會多，所以暫時很難有機會挑戰到傳統西方大國。相反，金磚國之間其實都各有算盤，各自積極與美國合作，或是相互猜忌。例如2011年，巴西便跟美國結盟，在WTO批評中國操縱貨幣，造成不公平競爭。至於印度與美國在軍事等議題上的合作，便更不用說了。
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從上年開始，不少投資銀行與經濟評論員，都紛紛看淡金磚國的行情。而金磚國的經濟數據，亦不斷令人失望。例如印度近一年來便出現資金外逃、股票下跌、通脹失控和貨幣不斷貶值的狀况。巴西在去年開始出現經濟停滯、通脹不減和出口下滑的危機。中國經濟從十以上掉到八以下，銀行壞帳炸彈隨時爆炸，工業亦開始萎縮。而經濟正在放緩的俄羅斯，亦好不了多少。/ q( J# I1 ?# ~: b

& U/ K% D. m1 u! `$ dtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb1月中時，英國《金融時報》出了一整版的分析報道，說現在的金磚國家和新興市場，很像1994年爆發金融危機前夕的墨西哥。1980年代末美元大幅貶值，美元資金出走，不少去了剛開放的墨西哥，刺激該國繁榮。但這個繁榮到底是由美元游資帶起，當1994年華府正式宣布重回強美元政策之時，在墨西哥的美資便大舉回流美國，導致墨國金融市場和貨幣崩盤。過去10年新興國家與金磚國很大程度也是由弱美元下的美元游資帶動。一旦美國正式退市、加息，重回強美元政策，不少盤踞新興市場多年的美資，也會大舉撤走回美。到時金磚國有多厲害，都難力挽狂瀾。& m- F5 p  M' S% y# e( ]1 `
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經過911、阿富汗和伊拉克戰爭之後，美國無復1990年代冷戰剛結束時的霸氣，毋庸置疑。但爛船還有三斤釘，說美國全球霸權已經終結，也是言之尚早。
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作者是美國約翰霍普金斯大學社會系副教授

felicity2010

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Ukraine crisis: Pro-Russian attackin Ukraine's Horlivka
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/ h9 o: G3 I+ s9 `- }9 b2 k公仔箱論壇Pro-Russian activists have attacked another official building in east Ukraine, ignoring a deadline to leave or face eviction by Ukrainian forces.
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A crowd stormed a police station in the town of Horlivka, near Donetsk, taking control of the building.
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' m2 R  C8 E/ k" v- vUkraine's interim president hit out at"aggression" from Russia, but signalled support for a national referendum.5.39.217.76/ d  f2 U0 ]2 o% `
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Olexander Turchynov said Kiev was "not against" a vote on the future of the country, a key demand from protesters.
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Mr Turchynov also said Ukraine was preparing an "anti-terrorist operation" against gunmen occupying government buildings in Sloviansk and a number of other towns and cities.
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His office said that he had suggested the UN could assist in any such operation. This would be highly unlikely as Russia has a veto on the Security Council, which would have to authorise any such action.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb" @: R% k$ ]" P( N

7 f5 E" v8 o2 V- @公仔箱論壇Correspondents says people in eastern Ukraine are anxiously waiting to see if Mr Turchynov carries through on his threat to use the army against the pro-Russian groups.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。  v1 F- P% U* q
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2 |2 x. e: i! Z' N" Y' p- M0 t% K公仔箱論壇    TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。  z: ^# S% P# g( k
     
& L: Y( N- |2 q6 r6 `5 [4 _' p( QA pro-Russia crowd threw rocks at the police HQ in Horlivka before storming it  9 e& u2 c; F" P! K  i  ?
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Pro-Russian gunmen continued to patrol the streets of Sloviansk on Monday  + T, m! D8 s2 x1 U  {# z. X# V
  
  Y" ~5 E" P- R$ \9 n公仔箱論壇    There were rival pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian rallies in the town of Kharkiv on Sunday  
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- ^- H1 j) b; A; i  y- C0 X* V2 t1 {tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbIn other developments:
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• Moscow denied allegations that Russian agents had been fomenting unrest in east Ukraine
• Vitaly Tsyhanok, the head of Ukraine's anti-terror operations, was sacked after criticism of Kiev's response to the crisis in the east
• A Ukrainian official said the government had not declared a state of emergency over the crisis in the east because it would require suspending the run-up to presidential elections on 25 May
• Britain called on the European Union to agree "further sanctions" against Russia in response to the escalating crisis

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# O8 D" @& [$ r5.39.217.76In a televised address to parliament, interim President Turchynov suggested Kiev would be open to moving from a republic into a federation and giving broader rights to Ukraine's Russian speakers.
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The pro-Russian groups who have seized government buildings in eastern regions are demanding local referendums on either increased local rights or an option to join the Russian Federation.& K9 b8 k5 S" c4 `
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But Mr Turchynov stopped well short of giving in to these demands by showing support for a national referendum, of which the outcome is uncertain because most people in Kiev and the Ukrainian-speaking west reject the idea of federalisation.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。' V) x4 p0 |9 s! j

* j0 i4 u) F6 m: G' @公仔箱論壇"We are not against holding a national referendum," Mr Turchynov said. "I am certain that a majority of Ukrainians will support an indivisible, independent, democratic and united Ukraine."
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3 x8 B& N# Q" Q; I4 V; m4 s& n/ u! b5.39.217.76He also used the speech to accuse Moscow of open aggression in the east of the country. TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( i) i, H( Z, z6 _% V( n# F, W
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"It's not a confrontation between Ukrainians, but covert and now no longer covert aggression by the Russian Federation against our country," he added. * R" K( O0 X4 F, L3 Q
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Russian Foreign Ministry Sergei Lavrov said it was not in Russia's interests for Ukraine to breakup but added that Moscow wanted all citizens of the country to be given equal treatment by Kiev. 公仔箱論壇' ^$ ^" j: [+ W5 _$ |

+ i: E# }9 I* D$ f% S+ r% v% |He also denied allegations that Russian agents had been fomenting unrest in eastern Ukraine and said he was seeking explanation from US of reports that CIA director John Brennan had visited Kiev.公仔箱論壇7 A0 [9 q) u2 R+ W

, k5 b, P6 \6 CTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。At an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council on Sunday, Russia urged Kiev not to use force against protesters in eastern Ukraine.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5 a# S' {# i# A. t/ F6 D& c1 U* M% _! b

% T& i0 M/ Y  v1 S" e/ cThe Russian Ambassador to the UN, Vitaliy Churkin, called on the government in Kiev to "start a genuine dialogue".9 c- D4 E  v. D$ [, n0 Z8 z' i
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Mr Churkin warned UN diplomats that there were neo-Nazis and anti-Semites within the ranks of "the self-proclaimed government in Kiev".
5 x: l% G1 {9 x8 \tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbHe said the opinions and interests ofprotesters in eastern Ukraine had not been taken into consideration.
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"The henchmen of Maidan [protest movement] must stop attacking their own people," said Mr Churkin.
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- I3 |9 K' f2 q( t- gBut Ukraine's UN ambassador Yuriy Sergeyev said Moscow had artificially created the crisis in the east of the country.
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0 Y5 _1 ?& V$ ^- ?3 M3 w* S4 uUkraine's foreign ministry said Monday that it had proof Russian forces had been behind the "separatist operation" and said it would present its evidence at a meeting in Geneva later this week.
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0 X7 \% O) o: i$ d* G公仔箱論壇The assistant UN Secretary General had warned that Ukraine "teeters on the brink".tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb* K# V  h2 s( R. i" M2 J7 A/ a
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European Union foreign ministers meeting in Luxembourg to discuss the crisis approved measures to provide up to 1bn euros (£800mn; $1.4bn) of economic assistance to Ukraine.
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The ministers also approved "the temporary reduction or elimination of customs duties" for Ukrainian exports to the EU.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb# h1 F2 g: c" @% O, X# i9 n8 m1 R

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