本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-9-5 12:23 AM 編輯
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1 r# ]* S" I, |3 c公仔箱論壇即時關注│經濟學人：佔中行動宜改策略
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8 V0 _1 i F. D* E7 M* _TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。
1 u) L0 F- b u9 u2 |3 X5 c公仔箱論壇人大悍然落閘，佔中一觸即發；最新一期的《經濟學人》，也就以〈為香港奮鬥〉（The struggle for Hong Kong）為封面主題發表文章，副題則更為明白的寫道：「區內市民一定不可以放棄要求全面的民主：為了自己和中國」（The territory’s citizens must not give up demanding full democracy－for their sake and for China’s）。然而，有關文章卻對當前和平佔中行動的策略，有所質疑。5.39.217.76, F1 N- V b0 o
文章坦言，人大今次強勢落閘，或會帶來最壞的結果是，泛民將一次又一次作出形形式式的抗議行動，以至當局最終可能會訴諸警察清場、大規模拘捕，甚至出動解放軍介入。屆時，不但令香港長年的和平政改歷程付諸流水，亦勢令中國跟西方世界再一次關係破裂，對中國及香港都只有害無益。就算這種情況僥倖未發生，中國卻已自行放棄，以香港作為全國民主試點的一次大好機會。
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文章批評，人大常委今次政改框架，根本形同移植當前大陸式民主到香港：即讓人民投票選舉的前提，候選人卻是先經中共欽點。香港在主權移交後的事實已證明，歷任特首的管治都可謂相當不受市民歡迎，法治與言論自由亦日受威脅。今次人大更為政改落閘，也終於迫使和平佔中行動行將爆發。( L& v7 ]5 U" }9 a
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但《經濟學人》質疑，佔中行動若堅持訴諸癱瘓交通要道，會更大機會失控，以至給當局出動軍警介入的口實。文章認為，市民仍應訴諸過往大規模和平抗議的傳統，泛民立法會議員亦要一致否決政府政改草案。公仔箱論壇& L( }' e+ Q. v" w
! m q/ a6 Q& d( m文章解釋，中國縱或一時間仍會對港人這些大規模和平抗議行動反應冷淡，但只要持之以恒，有可能會觸動新疆與西藏分離主義人士，亦會在當地訴諸同類活動，這便足以挑動北京當前的最大顧忌；再加上國內龐大的新中產階級，也會受港人這種做法影響，更大機會公開表達他們對當局種種管治及政策的不滿，令中國會對香港民主鬆手。
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6 d S Z v, S' GThe Economist: The struggle for Hong Kong公仔箱論壇3 A/ R$ l- _ V; f
1 @6 y5 B" h. H( i0 T, M+ l L2 JTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。
: f k# a9 b* w# a公仔箱論壇The territory’s citizens must not give up demanding full democracy—for their sake and for China’s5.39.217.76; G* Z0 ^ ]% v: ?
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CHINESE officials have called it a “leap forward” for democracy in Hong Kong. Yet their announcement on August 31st of plans to allow, for the first time, every Hong Kong citizen to vote for the territory’s leader has met only anger and indifference.Joy was conspicuously absent. This is not because Hong Kong’s citizens care little for the right to vote, but because China has made it abundantly clear that the next election for Hong Kong’s chief executive, due in 2017, will be rigged. The only candidates allowed to stand will be those approved by the Communist Party in Beijing, half a continent away.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb3 A+ P8 y3 E+ B
* ?: e, I- r) p) fAt its worst, this risks provoking a disaster which even China cannot want. Democrats are planning protests. It is unclear how many people will join in, but the fear is that the territory’s long history of peaceful campaigning for political reform will give way to skirmishes with police, mass arrests and possibly even intervention by the People’s Liberation Army. That would disrupt one of Asia’s wealthiest and most orderly economies, and set China against the West. But even if, as is likely, such a calamity is avoided, this leap sideways is a huge missed opportunity not just for Hong Kong but also for the mainland. A chance to experiment with the sort of local democracy that might have benefited all of China has been missed.4 W, V! J/ I6 ^& ~
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+ \% O j1 t% |! z/ K4 uTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。One country, one-and-a-half systemsTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( M, }7 m3 w" B# H# B
; x d5 _( f6 ~% _' H7 Ptvb now,tvbnow,bttvbChina’s announcement marks the end of an era.No longer is it possible to argue that the development of democracy in Hong Kong can forge ahead even in the absence of political reform in Beijing (see article). The arrangements, set out by China’s party-controlled parliament, the National People’s Congress, were needed because of a pledge to grant the territory a“high degree of autonomy” and eventually “universal suffrage” when it took over from Britain in 1997. To most people, that meant having the right to choose their leader themselves.5 W' ?5 T9 ]: |" A# e8 x" U3 b' h
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China has stuck to the letter of its promise,but not the spirit. In 2012 the chief executive was appointed by a 1,200-strongcommittee stacked with the party’s yes-men from among Hong Kong’s business and political elite. The proposal for 2017 is that a similar committee will select candidates who will then be presented to all Hong Kong’s voters for election.In theory the committee could allow through candidates of many political stripes. In practice, pessimism is more than justified. Only two or three candidates will be allowed, and each must win the support of at least half of the committee. Under this arrangement, democracy will mean little more in Hong Kong than it does elsewhere in China, where every adult citizen can vote for local legislators—as long as the party approves.
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; l% S7 a4 c7 s7 V) W: z/ OThis is bad for Hong Kong. The territory’s four leaders since the handover in 1997 were all chosen in Beijing and rubber-stamped into office. All of them, including the incumbent Leung Chun-ying, proved highly unpopular. Under a government in thrall to Beijing, the press has been subdued by intimidation and by pressure from advertisers. The judiciary fears that it may face a test of loyalty to the mainland. Some Hong Kongers complain that even the postal service is compromised—it refused to deliver leaflets urging civil disobedience.
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8 L, v6 p' l/ F' A7 I, Z! }- p公仔箱論壇The story may not be over. Activists in Hong Kong have vowed to launch a campaign of civil disobedience which they call,disarmingly, “Occupy Central with Love and Peace”, but whose declared mission is to paralyse the territory’s main financial district with sit-ins. This would be the first large-scale flouting of the law by the pro-democracy camp.5.39.217.76' u7 D* Q; s& F% v4 M/ v
f9 t. X5 L% ~, K. wtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThe activists’ aim is correct and their courage impressive, but their tactics may be mistaken.If the unrest gets out of control and troops are deployed, it would be a calamity for Hong Kong—and would probably set back the activists’ cause. Better to stick to what the democrats have always done best: staging the kind of peaceful protests that have made the territory a model of rational political discourse in a part of the world where it is often sorely lacking. And there is another form of peaceful protest available:Hong Kong’s legislators can reject China’s proposals, even though that would mean reverting to the equally undemocratic system used in 2012. Only a few dozen democrats now sit in the electoral college. They should, in future, boycott it. There is no point in propagating a falsehood.
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If Hong Kong’s people keep marching without damaging the territory’s economy, China may well simply shrug. But not necessarily.It was thanks in part to a huge and orderly protest in 2003 that Hong Kong’s puppet government shelved plans to introduce an anti-subversion bill and that the hapless chief executive, Tung Chee-hwa, stepped down. Rather than break the law, Hong Kong’s democrats would do better to wield the weapon of embarrassment.
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; ~# Y) |; u% V' V公仔箱論壇He’s blown it
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( |9 j6 a2 S4 m- {But it is not only in Hong Kong that China’s decision to strangle the territory’s democratic aspirations will be felt.China’s government has alienated opinion in Taiwan, which it dreams of bringing under its umbrella in the same way. The party appears to have concluded that the damage done to the prospects of union with Taiwan is less important than the threat that one of its opponents might win an election in Hong Kong and stoke demands across China for political reform. The territory would also become independent in all but name. That, the government worries, would encourage separatists around China’s periphery, from Tibet to Xinjiang.
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& Y, S6 e: c+ I" ]# n% S公仔箱論壇But discontent is growing all over China, and Beijing cannot just sit on it. The huge new middle class is becoming increasingly frustrated with its powerlessness over issues such as education,health care, the environment and property rights. In terms of their day-to-day worries, mainlanders have a lot in common with Hong Kong’s citizens. China’s government is going to have to work out a way of satisfying their aspirations for more control over their lives. Hong Kong would have been a good place to start.
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6 w* s) S, Y! q2 ^: T F9 D2 M5.39.217.76Xi Jinping, the party chief and president,had the opportunity to use Hong Kong as a test-bed for political change in China. Had he taken this opportunity, he might have gone down in history as atrue reformer. Instead, he has squandered it.公仔箱論壇% ?* f) R/ U& @3 \( @8 P
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( @- d6 y# b7 B/ k* `& A0 a+ E2 F
This analysis is rather myopic and incomprehensive, or more frankly wishful thinking. The strong stance of China against the election of Hong Kong Chief Executive in accordance with the international standard is manifest of the current political situation inside China and her diplomatic strategy. Damage control is the only way left.公仔箱論壇 g/ y2 s& H! p& c3 H6 t
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發表於 2014-9-4 12:26 PM
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