[時事討論] 動車寃魂只因不幸生在中國 孔捷生

felicity2010

動車寃魂只因不幸生在中國  孔捷生
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TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。9 ~& |6 ?% i* \
「不幸而生今日之中國」,是黃花崗七十二烈士之一林覺民與妻訣別書所寫。「誰叫你不幸生在中國」,是核物理學 家何祚庥針對礦難頻頻的冷血名言。林覺民和何祚庥都生於中國,卻是兩種類型的中國人。何氏早年激烈批判和自己不同學科的梁思成;他強烈支持和自己學科毫不 搭界的高壩工程;他發表「人類毋須敬畏大自然」的高論;他和三峽工程總工程師一起向中央建議開發怒江水電;他痛罵「極端環保主義」;他支持「克隆人」;他 在專業範疇的唯一高論,是建議用核爆把喜馬拉雅山炸出豁口,讓印度洋濕暖季風改善中國西部的氣候─此宏圖至今仍有待實現。
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) B# s- H( H: Z+ S- h# G) u# S2 x回到正題,溫州動車事故 細節不必一一羅列,為何出事不足十九小時就馬上恢復通車,為何要馬上就地掩埋列車殘骸,這緣自天朝一貫治國理念,秩序、權威、穩定重於人的生命,重於徹查 隱患以避免災難。自毛時代始,每有災變均以最快速度恢復生產為要務,唐山大地震後鋼鐵廠生產的第一塊鋼錠,足以紮上紅綢,敲鑼打鼓向中央報喜;某隧道塌 方,應急搶修後通過的第一輛車也披紅掛綠,譽為「偉大勝利」。皆因集權統治之下,任何延宕都會招致對政權、制度、管制效率的懷疑和責難。, n$ ?0 j" N4 h3 M3 w5 j
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六年前西 日本鐵道公司脫軌事故,因為速度監測控制的傳感器在神戶大地震後受到破壞。公司為了降低營運成本而拖延更換,導致司機超速出軌撞進公寓樓,造成一百零七人 死亡,係日本鐵道最嚴重事故。為此該線路停駛五十五天進行調查,日本運輸省調查委員會得出結論,除了傳感器問題,還有這個公司的體制硬傷,這使公司高層全部引咎辭職,並被起訴。但這還不夠,民間事故受害者團體不依不饒,終於在六年後查出調查委員會成員和這間鐵道公司有各種人事或利益瓜葛,於是公司全部高層 再度被迫辭職,運輸省也被迫出面撇清和該公司的關係。六年前與此事有關的責任人,曾多次被檢察部門提議免除起訴,但依照日本法制,由獨立民間人士組成的檢 察審議會有權否決,結果每次政府提議都被駁回,末了該公司相關高層全部被強制起訴。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5 ^2 W! y# }3 i2 Q7 r1 m9 H  x8 A
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反觀中國體制,不言自喻。「和諧號」列車被迅速掩埋是毀屍滅迹?筆者不去貿然附和陰謀論,但有一點很清楚,當局不容許殘骸在光天化日之下晾曬,使人觸目驚心,引起「國民素質不高」的老百姓諸多聯想,此刻穩定壓倒一 切。在中國任何災難事故都要先顧及政治層面,而非甚麼技術和責任層面。公仔箱論壇/ h; ?: J5 q- o; K) z/ S
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。4 a. V) Q/ P, `
若說這宗事故有何亮色,那就是中國人素質並不低,事發第一時間,逾千溫州人民自發搶險救人,這種公民意識和汶川地震初期一般無異。但顯示「黨疼國愛」的政府團隊到達,「公民」們就清場,連記者也只持特批證才能進入,他們就是「新華社通稿」的寫手。
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9 ]. h8 i" @1 T: V( M1 y. Mtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb溫州之殤,令我想起了林覺民《與妻書》,「天災可以死,盜賊可以死,瓜分之日可以死,奸官污吏虐民可以死,吾輩處今日之中國,國中無地無時不可以死。」
" ~1 u, o4 i3 d3 `tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。/ O: \& T( T3 a7 `

felicity2010

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After Wenzhou tragedy, HK should abort bullet train link
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- C, r# u7 Y5 p5.39.217.76Tom Holland  Jul 26, 2011 SCMP公仔箱論壇1 Y5 h+ g; B8 `1 \$ f# |
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TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。0 f3 N$ @% c/ D2 `% o
Last weekend's fatal bullet train crash in Wenzhou has triggered a searching reassessment of China's massive high-speed rail investment programme.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。: f2 Y1 w& ~; D# C( t  W8 Y- o& j" L7 j

/ ?6 h% Q' D/ }2 J1 ~& y3 Z2 {It should also prompt the Hong Kong government to reconsider its plans to spend HK$67 billion on an express line to connect to the mainland's network.
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! d+ `0 x8 k% s5 C- z/ }( P, W公仔箱論壇Saturday's accident, in which one high-speed train smashed into the rear of another killing at least 35 passengers and injuring hundreds, rammed home a point that was already fast becoming clear after a series of problems on other lines: China's new high-speed rail system is failing to live up to its publicity.
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Mainland officials have boasted that their new trains are far more advanced technologically than Japan's shinkansen.But there are plainly deep flaws with the signalling and traffic management systems that have been installed to run China's new network.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( h: @: R7 e5 W! v# W, V% C3 k1 p
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High-speed rail systems elsewhere in the world employ fail-safe cut-outs that make it impossible for two trains to occupy the same section of track at the same time; an essential feature when the trains may be travelling at speeds of up to 300km/h.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb" z* J! m# j7 {( ?4 S4 ~

4 U% s* O. L  M) p- [2 L5.39.217.76And those cut-outs are designed to work despite power failures,lightning strikes or human error. Just last month, for example, a lightning strike triggered a shutdown of London's Heathrow Express service.1 S8 Y# g' H( f" @: f9 i' @$ G

( c' Q2 o5 `# Z) n0 T' i1 ?Alas, the control systems on the Shanghai-Wenzhou line obviously were not up to the job. The immediate result was Saturday's crash. The longer term effect may be a major blow to public confidence in a network that critics say is already failing to attract customers in anything like the numbers forecast.5.39.217.76) l  k) c; ^: b( Z- r) q- z
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。% Z5 V; L& m) Q8 B' B' l8 k$ k7 y6 U+ \
For Hong Kong's planned high speed line, that means the risk is not - hopefully - a physical crash, but rather a financial train wreck.公仔箱論壇6 \% I: O9 Y, S- e# O( E+ D

: j2 C7 t& n* aThe Hong Kong government justifies its plan to spend HK$67 billion on a 26 kilometre line to Shenzhen by claiming that 100,000 passengers a day will use the new service when it opens in 2016, generating more than HK$1 billion in revenue in its first year at an operating margin of 34 per cent.
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1 f9 d6 Q/ E+ {/ Q- m& L8 Jtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbUnfortunately, there are powerful reasons to believe these figures are wildly optimistic. According to a 2005 study published by the World Bank,government officials around the globe deliberately understate the cost of railway projects and overstate traffic projections to secure funding approval.
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After adjusting for inflation, costs typically overshoot by 45 per cent.Actual passenger numbers usually turn out to be fewer than half those projected.
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(If that sounds far-fetched, consider that Hong Kong's Airport Express railway cost 52 per cent more than initially estimated, and today carries only around 40 per cent of the passengers originally forecast.)
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' U7 g. H! r& RIf the Hong Kong government's projections for its planned high-speed rail line are as wide of the mark as the World Bank study suggests, the actual cost of the new railway will not be HK$67 billion, but HK$97 billion. And first year revenues will not be HK$1 billion but more like HK$570 million, which means the an operating loss from day one.5.39.217.76, @5 O7 h+ `6 @

2 o' t4 s/ F2 B. PAnd in the longer run, the economic benefits during 50 years of operation will not be HK$87 billion, as the government claims, but a mere HK$42billion (at 2009 prices). At that rate it will take the new rail line 118 years to cover its construction costs.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。/ ]& v* R- [3 J, ]' K
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In short, Hong Kong's new high-speed rail link shows all the signals of a financial disaster in the making.5.39.217.76/ Z, Y% K6 q1 U9 _* |# g$ T& g

# N  `, e, L* f' \% d' nIn the aftermath of the Wenzhou crash, the government should take the opportunity to reconsider its plans, and abort the whole project before it wastes any more of the public's money.
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: \# d! |- G- }# D  eFor lovers of numbers, here are some statistics from Professor Mike McConville at Chinese University of Hong Kong, who has just published the results of a 12-year study of the mainland's judicial system, for which his team reviewed 1,144 criminal cases, monitored 227 trials and interviewed 88 judges.0 C' A4 a" s2 l. C

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• Percentage of defendants who were migrants: 55 per cent

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• Percentage of cases in which the police secured a confession from their suspect: 95 per cent

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• Number of cases in which defendants' allegations of police torture were investigated: zero

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• Percentage of defendants with no legal representation: 25 per cent

TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。7 H) b* |: y: v+ H( Y2 u0 e

• Percentage of defence witnesses rejected by the judge: 100 per cent

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• Percentage of defendants in serious cases tried and convicted within two hours: 80 per     cent

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• Conviction rate:100 per cent

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