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[時事討論] 市場一片混亂 只合投機不宜投資 信報社評

市場一片混亂 只合投機不宜投資  信報社評5.39.217.76! z; u' U: |1 N( j$ H

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9 v. H7 d8 y4 s5 u1 S5.39.217.7620國領袖在法國康城召開高峰會議,以及希臘國會周五表決公投的提案和議程前夕,希臘財長維尼澤洛斯突然倒戈相向,向提出全民公投歐盟解決希臘債務危機方案的希臘總理帕潘德裡歐發出最後通牒,反對公投。不管結果如何,希臘動盪的政治局勢又再度成為全球金融市場的焦點,更無可避免地成為今次G20國集團領袖峰會的主題。$ D8 T0 t; o4 z- ?* T

! @3 D7 k5 T* a9 F3 Q( _5.39.217.76帕潘德裡歐背城借一,豪賭一鋪,押上的不僅是他個人的政治前途,更重要的是希臘全國人民的福祉,因為公投真正的意義,不是決定是否接納歐盟解決希臘債務危機的方案,而是希臘是否退出歐羅區。德法兩國領袖已明言希臘國民需要決定是否還希望繼續留在歐羅區,希臘一定要接受方案,緊縮開支,削減債務,否則新一筆的八十億歐羅貸款不會向希臘發放。除了面臨破產,希臘根本別無選擇。由於近日有兩名執政黨國會議員請辭,在國會三百票中,希臘政府現時隻有一百五十一票支持,加上財長陣前倒戈,公投的提案極有可能夭折。
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+ X) d: ~- S$ X* o& Ztvb now,tvbnow,bttvb事實上,歐盟兩個大國德、法和國際金融市場對希臘最終退出歐羅區和有序違約,早有心理準備,而解決歐債危機的重心,其實也不是希債違約,反而是建立防火牆,避免出現骨牌效應,牽連歐盟其他債務嚴重的國家如意大利和西班牙。說到底,希臘的債務規模隻是三千五百七十億歐羅,佔歐盟GDP比重有限,極其量隻是另一個冰島而已。如果G20國集團峰會能夠達成協議,為穩定歐洲金融體制提出實際可行辦法,希臘最終走上破產的結局,反可為國際金融市場消除了最大的疑慮,有利全球金融系統的穩定。
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; N  }; ~" X& j0 V當然,G20國集團峰會不容易達成具體協議,而歐盟峰會早前達成的初步協議,其中EFSF的借貸規模和歐洲銀行資本重組問題,也有賴金磚五國尤其是中國的支持。可是,國家主席胡錦濤在峰會前夕已表明歐盟應該和有能力自己解決歐債問題,言下之意,擺明中國不會將歐洲的擔子扛在自己肩上,頂多履行有限度國際義務,少量購入歐債,以示支持。) f8 C/ r, p7 ]( U* ]

& h# R, F; x# I% U, _/ h5.39.217.76希債雖然是個難題,但希臘倒下,不會拖垮整個歐洲,令歐羅和歐盟解體,因為這是歐洲各國幾十年來努力爭取的歷史成果,放棄肯定弊多於利,對全球金融穩定和經濟發展必然帶來不可估量的負面影響。在全球一體化的今天,覆巢之下無完卵,歐羅和歐盟的解體,不單是歐洲國家和經濟的重大倒退,對其他國家和經濟亦會構成嚴重衝擊。願意也好,不願意也好,世界其他經濟大國也不可能袖手旁觀,最終一定會找出解決辦法,共赴時艱。
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對投機者而言,一萬年太久,隻爭朝夕。希臘的局勢變化、二十國集團峰會的協議、美國聯儲局的後著,以至日本干預日圓滙價、內地會否真的放寬銀根和歐洲央行突然減息,都在在左右大局,決定資金的流向,從而影響投資投機的決定。
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* X5 a9 E) F4 v1 a% n0 N6 ]+ {港股上周強力反彈,重返二萬點關口之上,市場投資情緒大為好轉之際,冷不防又殺出個希臘公投,令市場一片混亂,連大戶的部署也被打亂,造好造淡,各走極端,莫衷一是。現階段而言,市場根本沒有明確方向,既不會大升,亦不會大跌,隻會大幅波動,有能者自可上下其手,投機獲利,不貼市的投資者,隻宜作壁上觀,手持現金,靜觀其變,謀定後動。
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希臘公投不是搞搞震  盧峯
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8 ?: u) z$ b$ a( \公仔箱論壇金融炒家肯定愛煞希臘這個國家及她的總理帕潘德里歐。要不是他們扭扭擰擰,花招百出,金融市場的波動肯定少一點,炒家也少些上下其手的機會。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb3 S& r, K. X8 `" \* c

% B. J' }% I7 r1 E1 T上星期歐盟峯會好不容易達成解決歐債危機的一籃子方案
,既削債又加碼谷大救市基金,讓市場真有種鬆一口氣的感覺。可惜這一口氣還沒有完全舒出來,希臘這個伸手向歐元區求助的國家突然祭出「公投」這一殺着,指希臘是否接受新的拯救方案要由全民投票決定。消息一出,歐美以至全球金融市場登時亂作一團,因為誰也沒有想過希臘會出這一招,也沒有人知道公投會有甚麼結果,更沒有人能預計新的救市方案會否胎死腹中。就在真真假假中,股市、商品市場日升日跌,讓炒家炒個不亦樂乎。
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歐元區龍頭包括法國、德國對希臘總理的突襲反應強烈
,德國總理默克爾更不客氣的質問希臘是否想留在歐元區。被帕潘德里歐擺了一道,兩大龍頭當然不是味兒,但即使德國不理解這個做法,法國總統薩爾科齊至少該有多些理解與同情吧,畢竟用「全民公決」作秘密政治武器對法國而言不是甚麼新的東西,甚至可以說,法國領袖是箇中高手。
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" W+ ~2 W; F% p/ p, n: {! o5.39.217.76十九世紀中拿破崙的姪兒路易拿破崙看準法國國民厭倦議會爭拗與拖延
,一再拿全民公決( plebiscite)作武器,先是把自己軍事政變合法化,然後逐步修改憲法,大權獨攬,架空國民議會,進而稱帝,成為公投產生的拿破崙三世。近一點的例子是二戰國家英雄戴高樂將軍。這位老兵戰後眼見無法在紛亂的政黨政治中取得主導地位,便迅速引退,長期在野,等待機會收拾殘局。一九五八年法國政府、政黨被阿爾及利亞內戰弄得焦頭爛額,民眾想借這位民族英雄穩定局勢,重建秩序,把他送上總理寶座。掌權後,戴高樂同樣活用公投為武器,先是公投修改憲法,締建第五共和,讓總統凌駕議會掌有最大權力。其後在解決阿爾及利亞問題上,戴高樂同樣倚賴公投結果決定讓這個殖民地獨立。不過,到最後戴高樂也因為在改革參議院的公投上落敗而宣佈下野。

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希臘的政局跟法國的第二、第四共和時差不多。政黨林立
,掌權的都是聯合政府,大家有事無事已拉拉扯扯,像大幅削減財赤這樣的大動作更不易有共識,更難以達成共識。另一方面,慣吃免費午餐的希臘民眾當然不歡迎削赤方案,把矛頭指向政府,彷彿問題都出在政府身上,彷彿總理有甚麼奇謀妙計可以無痛讓希臘留在歐元區。為了在這樣不切實際、互相逃避的政治困局中找出路,全民公決不失為一個釜底抽薪的辦法。只要公投有明確結果,不管是留在歐元區或脫離歐元重用本國貨幣,國會各黨都不能再說三道四,民眾也必須接受公決的結果,不能再把責任推在政府身上。事實上不管接受或拒絕拯救方案,不管是留是走,代價、苦果都甚大,倒不如一起投票,一起承擔更好。

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想來想去
,實在有點同情帕潘德里歐。
歐債危機黑夜閃現曙光 陳美慧5.39.217.76; X' g6 G) _) V: O( k# Q; k

7 @/ Y8 y9 U5 J" e1 h. U1 o歐盟在祭出最新歐債危機解決方案,包括削減希臘債務、強制銀行業資本重組及擴大歐元穩定機制的規模等;中國的拯救成為黑夜中的一線曙光。歐盟結構性缺陷仍在,債務危機催化分裂。
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在歷經十小時的挑燈夜戰後,十月二十七日清晨四點,歐盟各國在德法主導之下終於達成共識,祭出最新歐債危機救市方案,包括削減希臘債務、強制銀行業資本重組及擴大歐元穩定機制的規模等。這是希臘債信危機爆發一年半以來,第一次出現較具實質內容的藥方,普遍受到各方肯定,當天全球股市大漲。然而這正確的一步,卻只是一小步,仍只是爭取喘息的治標手段,缺乏共同財經、貨幣政策的歐元體系設計缺陷,依舊固在,火苗再次四竄的潛力不減。實際上,債信危機正悄悄地催化歐盟的分裂:英國蠢蠢欲動想退出,斯洛伐克政府為此下台,危機下一號候選人意大利成為眾矢之的,承接最多擔保風險的德國民間呼籲引進全球性金融交易稅,要求金權繳械的治本呼聲升高。最令人跌破眼鏡的是,面對走投無路的民眾不斷升高的抗爭,希臘總理巴班德里歐準備把債務協議交付公投,為歐元危機投下未知的變數。
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! \9 H1 {7 g$ @  o救市方案主要的內容包括: 第一,銀行、保險公司等私部門債權人同意以自願方式削減一半希臘債務。銀行業原本只同意認賠兩成,德國政府要求六成,高峰會上德國總理默克爾和法國總統薩科齊親自出馬和國際銀行界代表德勒拉(Charles Dallara)直接談判,最後折衷達成五成的協議,是此次救市行動最大的突破。
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( G* O' k3 \0 m9 P! U: e公仔箱論壇由於許多銀行、特別是德國銀行持有的希臘國債早已陸續脫手,加上歐盟各國政府還給糖吃,加撥三百億歐元(約四百一十億美元)擔保延期的希臘國債,減少銀行風險,因此高峰會決議公開後,表面上吃虧的德國銀行業,股票反而大漲。法國銀行業的情況較不利,導致會前德法立場分歧,法國力主賦予歐洲央行一般銀行的功能,德國害怕通貨膨脹,堅決反對,這也是六天內兩次馬拉松高峰會的主因。$ ~1 W  M6 T$ j( {" ^/ I
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法國比任何一個國家更有捍衛歐元的理由。據明鏡在線(Spiegel online)的報道,薩科齊曾急得跳腳,大叫「已經是高速公路上的最後一個出口了」,逼默克爾趕快做決定。薩科齊想尋求明年連任,亟需「歐元救星」的光環加持,目前他的民調支持度遠遠落在社會黨的對手奧朗德(Francois Hollande)之後,而法國的最佳債信評比也岌岌可危。公仔箱論壇- L' w6 r+ ~/ j/ E: p! L: L3 i6 }% [
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歐債爆發以來,默克爾一直被攻擊救災沒方向沒方法,被逼急了才胡亂出招,局面才越發難以收拾。這回她事先取得德國議會超黨派的背書(也是迫於德國憲法法庭九月的判決︰政府歐元救災行動,需經國會認可),說話特別大聲,堅持不退讓,刻意突顯強硬的領導風格。在布魯塞爾,救災二人組被稱為「默科齊」 (Melkozy),在法國國內,媒體譏諷薩科齊是默克爾跟前的小哈巴狗。
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救市方案第二點,強制要求歐洲九十餘家大型銀行強化體質,明年六月前將核心資本額由目前的百分之四提高到九,以因應潛在損失的衝擊。銀行應自行在資本市場上集資,沒辦法時各國政府出面協助,政府也不行時,歐洲金融穩定機制(EFSF)才出手。銀行業資金重整是對症下藥,美中不足的是期限設在明年中,投機客可能利用這段時間興風作浪。5.39.217.76  p1 O) ^$ V$ b7 N
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第三,利用槓桿加乘效應,將EFSF規模擴大四至五倍,相當一兆歐元的效力,以防大火延燒至經濟規模龐大的意大利和西班牙。擴增EFSF火力的方式,可能是以下兩種模式組合:一是模仿汽車半險的概念,只擔保公債持有人前兩成或兩成五的虧損,其他部分由投資人自行承受﹔另一則是成立特別基金,爭取民間投資人和歐洲以外的國家、譬如中國主權基金挹注。5.39.217.76; m$ W1 H. w8 [! {* A& _
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期待中國援手的矛盾
1 a" L) I8 y; R1 b" z; h8 W公仔箱論壇正輪值全球二十大工業及新興國(G20)主席的薩科齊,當天立刻打電話給中國國家主席胡錦濤溝通此事,隔天EFSF執行長、德國籍的瑞格林(Klaus Regling)飛往北京及東京,遊說中國及日本主權基金加入救災機制。一時之間,外匯存底豐富的中國,搖身一變成為晦暗危機中的一線曙光。中國數次透露必要時願意拉歐洲人一把的訊息,因為歐洲是中國最重要的貿易夥伴,歐元的穩定攸關中國的利益,二零一零年五月EFSF成立以來,中國已經買走其中四成債券。但是歐洲人也明白中國不可能當冤大頭,媒體一面分析中國主權資金的分布及流向,入主或接手哪些西方企業,一面警告西方政界拿人手軟,小心付出過高的政治代價│輕者被封嘴,從此不准對人權、政治壓迫或人民幣匯率說三道四﹔重者承認中國「完全市場經濟的地位」、協助中國取得貿易優勢,爭取國際貨幣基金 (IMF)更多的話語權和決議權,在中美抗衡中選站中國的一邊,聯合制衡美國的單極霸權。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5 K6 k+ [& T% N
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中國財政及人民銀行官員重申支持歐元的意願,但在細節出爐之前不願多說。《南德日報》評論:「中國,又是中國,幾乎每星期都會出現中國的名字,不管世界上哪個市場需要重要投資人……」。中國賣不賣帳,在何種交換條件下挺歐元,此刻不得而知,清楚的是歐陸相對新興國家、特別是中國的影響力消長。
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. o6 `  T8 P# eTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。歐盟各國決議以「槓桿方式」擴大救災機制的效力,借用備受唾棄的金融界手法,等於政府領頭投機,歐洲納稅人擔保的風險明顯提高,引人爭議,強烈的一廂情願色彩更引發「黔驢技窮」的不安。財經專家相信巧妙利用槓桿加乘,短期可能發揮效果,基於簡單的人性弱點,中長期反而不利│錢明擺在那裏,誰還不計政治前途,死命要選民勒緊褲帶,努力減債?德國央行主席魏德曼 (Jens Weidmann)坦承他對槓桿的未來發展「憂心忡忡」。有新末日博士之稱的美國經濟學家盧比尼(Nouriel Roubini)質疑:「認賠一半被強加諸在希臘債權人身上後,還有人會想曝險於意大利或西班牙的債務嗎?」至截稿為止,日本已具體承諾金援,原表態無意蹚渾水的俄羅斯據悉已改變初衷,巴西反應正面。公仔箱論壇: y- ]1 t' p  n1 Q
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歐元成了分化歐洲毒藥
  n; J) k, j0 k/ z$ cTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。恢復投資人對歐元區的信心,是當務之急。然而歐元區結構性的缺陷一天不排除│不同國家有不同的經濟條件、不同的財政紀律│就不可能有真正的貨幣聯盟,所以有人主張「雙軌歐元區」的解套之道,但主導的德法兩國目前並不考慮這個「縮編」的選項。公仔箱論壇, I1 x0 I& p2 @* {3 `0 B0 ^
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原意在團結歐洲、繁榮歐洲的共同貨幣,如今反倒成了分化歐洲的毒藥,各國之間齟齬頻繁,有人想退出,有人不要歐元,更多的普羅納稅人擔心辛苦攢集的積蓄莫名其妙被蒸發掉。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, q: x! m6 T: j$ V
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英國國會十月二十四日表決是否就退出歐盟舉行公投,結果保守黨一半以上的同志倒戈,公投案最後雖遭封殺,但反對派抨擊英國被邊緣化,要求退出歐盟的聲浪不間斷,《每日郵報》刊出首相卡梅倫後腦勺的白髮,暗示四十五歲的他壓力太大,一夕白頭。英國屬歐盟、不屬歐元區,但歐債危機無疑將使英國經濟雪上加霜,此刻置身事外,將是一大災難,英國尤其在乎德法積極研議中的金融交易稅 (歐盟已宣布將在一四年引進),將會毀掉倫敦金融中心的地位,戕害英國經濟命脈。卡梅倫叨叨絮絮,催促歐元區國家盡快解決問題,氣得薩科齊不顧國際禮儀,怒氣相向:「沒人問你意見!」
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意大利總理貝魯斯科尼也和默科齊兩人發生尷尬的「肢體語言」衝突。意大利債務高達一點九兆歐元,萬一出事,非同小可,眾人的壓力自然聚焦在此。當被記者問到對貝魯斯科尼有無信心時,默科齊兩人相視苦笑。貝魯斯科尼自尊心受損,直嚷國格平等,沒有人有資格教訓別人。不過,戲劇化的對峙居然發揮作用,第二輪高峰會貝魯斯科尼做了功課,帶來十四頁的改革計劃時間表,承諾減債,包括效法德國將退休年齡調高至六十七歲。
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TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。/ h6 Q: G) k$ l5 I: i3 H, X5 r
為顧全歐元區大局,確實付出下台代價的是東歐斯洛伐克的聯合政府。先天體質孱弱的小國拼死拼活把國債壓到比誰都低的百分之四十五,沒想到下場竟是幫揮霍無度的人買單,民心憤恨。同為新會員的波蘭已決定延緩引進歐元的時間。6 a: G" V' _4 v- s! T* D  h
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。% C0 n/ n7 e$ P% ?# {4 c% j* [
民間呼籲徵金融交易稅
; G( x( M% h6 _0 ttvb now,tvbnow,bttvb承接最多擔保風險的德國民間,呼籲讓金融業「繳械」的主張日漸具體化。除了近月開始響應「佔領華爾街」運動的個人外,樂施會(Oxfam)德國分部及德國環保協會(Deutsche Umwelthilfe) 零九年就開始展開簽名行動,具體提出「抗貧窮稅」及「建立透明信評機構」的主張,敦促默克爾在十一月初的G20高峰會再提金融交易稅一案,編織全球防堵網,有效阻斷金融投機的根源。他們要求把金融交易稅收用在環保及百分之九十九的窮人身上,七十餘個非政府組織加入串連行動,約十萬人聯署。
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左派黨更進一步主張銀行國有化,曾任德國財政部長的左派健將拉方田(Oscar Lafontaine)在接受《柏林日報》訪問時,強調過份強大的金融勢力是萬惡之源,當前第一要務就是「降獸」,具體第一步就該禁止金融業提供政治獻金,確保政黨的超然運作,接著是銀行的瘦身和國有化,杜絕龐大金融怪獸製造一個又一個的泡沫,吞噬實質經濟。
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"一场被载入史册的峰会" tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb. @' R5 o7 R" J( t6 Y6 U/ P: A

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TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。. M( g3 _# M* C$ a3 J' ^: @
评论

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+ X9 {# X# O$ _$ f/ X" P) y  F3 x法国举行的20国集团峰会应该在辉煌中落幕,但是相反戛纳的峰会却作为一出"大戏"将被载入史册。
5 N8 x" q7 Z, ]4 @3 M/ g" ?2 CTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。
" I2 S7 w+ X4 V# L5.39.217.76tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb) n! [! _5 L1 h; n, w1 C

& ~( K) S1 Q# ^' O6 U) |TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。法国总统萨科奇想书写历史。20个世界最强国家的领导人在法国度假胜地戛纳举行的20国集团峰会要就"新世界新思维"的主题展开讨论。法国总统萨科奇本打算在峰会上提出制止原料和金融界投机行为的议题,但事实却与意愿背道而驰。戛纳举行的20国集团峰会虽然书写了历史,但却书写了一段计划之外的历史。
( C, u6 C4 H" z- L, ]* PTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, h. B: j& y+ d, T3 d
自7国和之后的8国集团峰会,以及20国集团成立三年来,各国领导人和首脑还从未有过如此混乱的会晤。人们会有一种身处在同一个地方,却在同时参加众多不同峰会的感觉。忙碌的国家领导人从早上到深夜,从一个危机会晤匆匆赶往至下一个危机会晤。会晤安排以小时为单位。让人们感到些许高兴的是,20国领导人总算能在会议期间找到时间成功的坐在一个谈判桌上。而所有的一切都要归咎于欧洲东南部的小国--希腊。 1 J8 d: ]. G# c0 y+ a- D
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几天前,希腊总理帕潘德里欧做出对接受拯救欧元措施举行公投的决定,揭开了混乱一周的开始,欧洲已很长一段时间没有经历过此情此景了。欧洲领导人先是对这一决定感到震惊,之后法国总统萨克奇表现得十分愤怒,因为他很快就知道:他完美的峰会计划被帕潘德里欧给毁了,于是便开始处理危机的紧张工作。最后,不管是来自美国、中国、印度、巴西、俄罗斯或其它国家的宾客都从世界各地飞抵戛纳。他们想知道,欧洲这个老朋友究竟怎么了?
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戛纳街头的峰会海报
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- W2 u& b$ i$ |4 l3 n) I公仔箱論壇在这场十分混乱的峰会里,一些计划中的议题几乎被沦为次要地位,但这些议题最终还是把20国集团峰会引入了正轨。各国领导讨论的第一个计划中的共同议题是:对全球基本食品交易的投机行为加以限制。5.39.217.76, L2 s  l5 P- G# O. h+ h, {

2 g! e: S/ k8 [0 q) n/ zTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。此外,金融市场的监管应该延伸到所谓的影子银行的领域中去,将对冲基金和银行以外的其它金融机构也纳入影子银行体系的监管之中。目前该领域的交易已超过全球金融活动的四分之一,而且处于全面失控和高风险状态。然而各方也只是提出对这一领域加以限制,仅此而已。就像三年前20国集团举行首次峰会时宣布的那样,要对金融市场加以控制。尽管后来表明对影子银行的控制是极为困难的。但至少,必须对大型金融机构做出规定,以便这些机构在今后遭遇危机和倒闭的情况下不再需要纳税人为其买单。公仔箱論壇6 @8 I, ~# G7 M1 a
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然而,戛纳峰会上还有许多议题被搁置一旁。例如与会者就没有抽出时间对类似饥荒和气候问题展开讨论。此外,被寄予厚望的金融交易税议题也未能在峰会上达成共识。这一议题在本次峰会的闭幕声明中仅沦为次要内容。或许y引入金融交易税已经得到了欧元区国家的普遍共识?但问题在于,眼下欧元区各国有其它更需要解决的问题。在紧张的峰会结束后,严重的欧洲金融危机还远未解决。下一个即将引爆的"金融炸弹"就在距戛纳一个小时车程的意大利。
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DEUTSCHE WELLEtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb: k2 L; u$ u$ X8 M+ u
作者: Henrik Böhme   编译:严严
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/ f/ y5 p+ S7 \9 ]+ UTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。公仔箱論壇% {1 E4 Q! ?" J4 h0 ?* e
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本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-11-5 09:32 AM 編輯
$ C1 M6 z% G" k& N  Y. U3 LTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。
+ b, Y1 W' R) n. V( w公仔箱論壇Global recession grows closer as G20 summit fails  Patrick Wintour & Larry Elliot
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. V) q! s- F- XTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。

1 w" b! g* X$ QTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Saturday 5 November 2011
1 ~2 H' Q& T  j; a6 MIMF to monitor Italy to ensure austerity as leaders fail to agree plan for financial aid for distressed countriestvb now,tvbnow,bttvb; [1 a  Q3 C* F. T2 ]
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A world recession has drawn closer after a fractious G20 summit failed to agree fresh financial help for distressed countries and debt-ridden Italy was forced to agree to the International Monetary Fund monitoring its austerity programme.
0 ^: h8 |8 i: M' [$ I7 L6 DTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。6 ?9 c& a/ C# L4 N& I% L- F
Financial markets fell sharply after the two days of talks in Cannes broke up in disarray, amid concerns that Italy will now replace Greece at the centre of Europe's deepening debt crisis.
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UK hopes that the Germans would relent and allow the European Central Bank to become the lender of last resort for the euro were also dashed.
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0 v7 m+ T7 a, ^; k公仔箱論壇On a day of unremitting gloom and yet more market turbulence, the Greek prime minister, George Papandreou, won a late-night confidence vote in his parliament after making a speech in which he promised to start power sharing talks to forma caretaker coalition government. Although he won the vote by 153-145, he is now expected to step down and a national unity government is expected to takeover in the coming days.
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" e+ z' u( A; w$ x* VPapandreou said he would visit the country's president on Saturday to launch power-sharing talks "with the [opposition] parties … for the formation of a government of broad co-operation."- Q) b5 t6 c- x8 D% @

) Q4 {$ G- B( A& c/ r/ pIn a sign that the spread of the debt crisis to Italy could break up the single currency, the chancellor, George Osborne, admitted the Treasury was undertaking crisis planning for a eurozone collapse.
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6 g2 {1 ], f$ v9 K7 K5.39.217.76TheG20 deadlock led David Cameron to issue one of his starkest warnings about the impact on the UK economy, saying: "Every day the eurozone crisis continues and every day it is not resolved is a day that it has a chilling effect on the rest of the world economy, including the British economy.
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"I am not going to pretend all the problems in the eurozone have been fixed. They have not. The task for the eurozone is the same as going into this summit. The world can't wait for the eurozone to go through endless questions and changes about this.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。$ g5 e2 a; D5 c8 p

! T# h* c2 a1 y0 Q公仔箱論壇"We,like the rest of the world, need the eurozone to sort out its problems. We need more to happen in terms of detail on the European firewall."5.39.217.76( [5 I; Y1 v. W+ D0 K. I- J

. t8 v- e% H$ C' ^2 ~) k* |* KTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Cameron hinted at worse to come, describing this as only "a stage of the global crisis".公仔箱論壇9 q& D: N- W. }

* s1 Y* j. n5 U- T6 sThere had been hopes that the G20 would agree to increase IMF resources by as much as$250bn to more than $1tn, but disagreements about the wisdom of it, structure,size and contributors to the fund left world leaders forced to pass the issue on to a meeting of G20 finance ministers next February.( _0 I: e3 ^+ |1 u7 P# h  }/ [
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。- z" c) I2 ], _. q2 r
The French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, had been eager to flourish a figure both to reassure the markets and to top his chairmanship of the G20.
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. B: T. z# u& x2 E8 ~% y( o# [- SCameron revealed the friction, saying: "The very worst thing would be to try to cook up a number without being very specific about who is contributing what. If you cannot do that, it is better to say the world stands ready to increase resources to the IMF as necessary."
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! E- M) a: u  n; l, \, g' ^% CIn the financial markets an early rise in share prices was reversed after it became clear that divisions in the G20 would prevent a deal in Cannes to boost the firepower of the European financial stability facility (EFSF) or the IMF.The yield on 10-year Italian bonds rose from 6.2% to 6.4%, the highest since the euro was founded, raising fears that the country would face problems financing its huge debts.
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& F. a; N1 i: n* ?5 j) ]( IObama,under pressure from Congress, was deeply reluctant to contribute to an expansion of IMF funds without clearer signs that the eurozone was sorting out its problems. Admitting that he had been given a crash course in European politics, Obama urged Greek and Italian parliaments to take decisive action to control their deficits and combat what he described as some of the psychological origins of the crisis.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。4 g& @3 G8 g; l9 A' q0 h% `4 ^' V2 X! W

1 r# S$ k1 F" q8 e  }5.39.217.76He also urged the euro area to start putting some resources into the EFSF, which Europe hopes to turn into a bailout fund with at least €1tn to deploy.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。- a5 G5 x: W$ p) F
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But the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, said: "There are hardly any countries here which said they were ready to go along with the EFSF."tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb% Z1 v3 e9 J, R9 I1 ?# p

' p3 V& h- m) d2 x5 h4 [Berlusconi was summoned to a late-night hotel meeting with Merkel, Sarkozy, the IMF director general, Christine Lagarde, and Obama, where he was told that the IMF was to start monitoring to ensure tough austerity measures are implemented. The measures include changes to the labour market, pension reform and the sell-off of state-owned assets.
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0 A% Y, r3 B7 J6 A  p8 w/ |- k3 d5.39.217.76Italy has debts of €1.9tn, or 120% of GDP, and if it followed Greece down the path towards a financial bailout, or default, the impact on the European banking system would be vast. Italy faces new tests in further auctions of its debt this month – it has to raise €30.5bn in November and a further €22.5bn in December.
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Sarkozy denied that the demands on Berlusconi represented an IMF coup, saying: "Wenever wanted to change governments, either in Greece or in Italy. That is not our role, that is not our idea of democracy, but it's clear that there are rules in Europe and if you exonerate yourself from these rules you exclude yourself from Europe."TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。. A8 m/ I& S- M  p
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Berlusconi,facing defections from his own party, insisted he had invited the IMF to offer advice. Berlusconi said on Friday he had rejected an offer of funds from the IMF – "I don't think Italy needs that" – and said his country was more solid than France or the UK.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb6 x' r8 ?* Z/ e4 n
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。9 d# F' h. H7 Z% a
British officials privately admit that potential economic collapse in Italy is now the single biggest concern gripping world leaders. One said: "We cannot have the Italians meeting in crisis every three days. We need some action."
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The UK government will now focus on urging its European partners to make progress,and will continue to support extra cash for the IMF. Cameron said he would not need UK parliamentary approval for this as the Commons has already agreed to an increase that would cover the proposed UK additional contribution.
7 J( y6 i& a0 m' NTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。
- i6 `, w4 J6 t8 j' l# K! ], s* [5.39.217.76The EFSF has €440bn ($608bn) available to lend, of which roughly half is expected to be consumed by bailouts of Ireland, Portugal and Greece. Italy has nearly€2tn in debt outstanding.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb1 P% }; x6 s6 k& ^

- e2 R! `5 i8 p% U; p/ y公仔箱論壇The European Central Bank has purchased Italian debt since August, but will not carry on doing so indefinitely. The need to bolster the EFSF has led the EU to pursue countries outside the euro zone with surplus cash, such as China.
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-11-5 09:28 AM 編輯 TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。$ P) a3 b$ @1 N) r* i

& g& B" Q2 ]& p+ Z- j( Q6 u! m公仔箱論壇G20 summit:slumping to the occasion  Guardian Editorial
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" o7 ^( Y- v1 W7 c$ ~5.39.217.76Yes they Cannes? Sadly, in the end, no they couldn't. It is important,nevertheless, not to overstate the failure of the Cannes G20 summit. This is not apocalypse – or even Acropolis – now. Modern summits are an ongoing bargaining process, not a one-off, all-or-nothing shoot-out. But it is just as important not to understate the missed opportunities and the perilous consequences either. The fundamental fact about the Cannes G20, like the Brussels eurozone summit last week, is that the nations of the world had the chance to get a stronger grip on the European sovereign debt crisis and they let it slip. One way or another, therefore, they are doomed to have to try again. But the context may not be any easier when they do. In fact, it could be much worse.& j; i& j& G' n4 A  h

+ s1 |3 x0 S6 z1 g) {! gTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。The easy excuse is to blame Greece. If George Papandreou had not thrown a spanner into the post-Brussels works by announcing a referendum on last week's rescue package, the argument runs, then Germany and France could have come to Cannes with a shiny new eurozone prospectus for China and others to buy. That argument won't wash. Mr Papandreou's timing, though not his spasm of democratic instinct, was terrible. But Greek instability is a given in this crisis,however you frame it. The bigger problem was that Europe's three-part rescue plan was virtual reality, not money on the table. It was a rights issue with a prospectus lacking hard numbers. It was not a bad plan – and it has certainly gained the eurozone some time. But it was inadequate. It contained insufficient bankable and quantifiable commitments on Greece, on Italy, on the recapitalisation of the banks and on the euro stability fund. The very fact that the EU had to come to the G20 for help was indicative of the fact that the EU was failing to pull together – and was perhaps incapable of solving its own problems.
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& {! F- z! w) Y0 btvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThat judgment can now be extended to the G20 too. Yesterday's Cannes communique is a compromise document, as they always are. But the Cannes conclusions rarely rise above generality. "We all commit to further structural reforms to raise output in our countries," they say. But who commits to exactly what? "We will ensure the IMF continues to have resources to play its systemic role to the benefit of its whole membership," says what is arguably the communique's single most important sentence – not least in the paranoid worm's-eye-view world of Westminster Euroscepticism. But how much resources?From whom? And where will it be spent? Even the apparently concrete Italian commitment to call in the IMF "to carry out a public verification of its policy implementation" lacks the necessary steel rods that would reinforce Italy's pledge to restructure its debt,公仔箱論壇! \# f+ Z, p# {" I3 ?. {. V

  M+ B% R. ?4 Z; q' ?+ V, B- K公仔箱論壇It may not seem from the reporting as if the G20 was about anything other than righting Europe's banks and public finances. In fact, every G20 is and ought to be also about low global growth. Yet Cannes disappointed here too. The communique talks of an action plan for growth and jobs. But where is it? There are vague commitments to take "discretionary measures to support domestic demand, should economic conditions materially worsen." And there is an apparent Chinese commitment (which nevertheless does not mention China)"to increase domestic demand coupled with greater exchange rate flexibility". True, these are not technically inconsistent with an energetic growth pact. Yet to pretend that this is in any sense a co-ordinated or credible action plan for the nations to combine to get ahead of the markets is simply false.公仔箱論壇  \9 e, t5 \) g# T6 Y
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Any summit is better than no summit at all. It is also important to have realistic expectations about the ability of nations with different interests, and often ruled by coalitions, to take transformative collective actions. Yet if not them, who? And if not now, when? Cannes provided few answers. All the big questions still remain on the table for next time.
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.... and there is no free lunch.
8 ?6 t& H& C5 x: q4 FShould the Chinese government get involved in the rescue of the European Financial Crisis?  The answer is yes, we have no choice but to help bailing them out. (whether we like it or not).
! y- P9 c8 ?5 W4 l# ]/ wTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。We (the Chinese Government) have survived the last Global Financial Crisis coming out rather unscathed, that was mainly due to our strong fiscal policy (pegging the Chinese Yuan to $US, and we hold a huge amount of US dollars and US bond in our reserve),  and the strong government spending on building the local infrastructures such as airport, freeways, railway lines, port facilities, and a very strong local demand for housing and manufactured goods and so on.
3 N; f  e" U. Y) }0 Q$ r. o7 @tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbHowever, these internal demands of our own products will and is slowing down.  So what's is going to happen to our manufacturing sector when the global demand  keeps on dwindling?  We will have to cut down on production, reduce the workforce, lower our price even further, hence the wage and condition of the factory workers will deteriorate.
' ~  W# z9 x; X  G$ f5 sSo, it is to our interest to help bail out the European fianacial crisis.
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A little green earthling, living life as if there were no tomorrow.
本帖最後由 norman.ho 於 2011-11-6 11:39 AM 編輯 公仔箱論壇1 s# f: b" M7 S. t& i6 b. Q3 B3 {6 L
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.... and what goes around comes around.
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Just go back about 15 years, remember the East Asian Financial Crisis in 97, the slaughtering the four Asian Dragons, the drastic devaluation of the Thai, Singapore, Korean and Indonesian currencies, how the IMF dictated the fiscal policy to countries like Korea, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippine?
, \+ r- j/ j* HGeorge Soros was sitting back laughing and reaping off with huge profit.  The Japanese economy has since been slowed down drastically.
$ r6 S$ M6 `3 h+ R/ ^: wAnd that happened at the precarious time at which HK was being returned to mainland China.  We survived that alright didn't we? We must be thankful to the way the Chinese Government handled the situation.  And the only Asian country that toughed it out was the Malaysian government who vigorously resist the IMF interference.
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What is the IMF doing now?  Nothing, absolutely impotent.  And the media is now referring to the EU region as the Euro Zone,  The words European Union were hardly being uttered anymore.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。4 p# x+ I( z/ V

, Q/ P: Y/ _5 E, P& z5 }! e8 DAnd the US?  They have a bigger problem of their own than the European countries.
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  • aa00

A little green earthling, living life as if there were no tomorrow.
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-11-6 03:12 PM 編輯 TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。2 L1 s9 v3 |7 `- |
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Who is the villain in this eurocrisis movie?  Gulf Stream Blues
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: Y8 P7 o! t# T5.39.217.76Cannes has seen its fair share of cinematic flops over the years. But this red carpet-laden city on France's south coast has never seen a political flop like the one it witnessed over the past two days. It had all the elements of an edge-of-your-seat political thriller: high stakes, sudden plot twists, personal rivalries and looming global disaster. But who is the villain in this particular script? Today there was plenty of finger-pointing to go around.
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% y$ L  ^3 _6 `The leaders of the world's 20 richest countries intended to come to Cannes to come up with a solution to global economic crisis which is quickly spiraling out of control. But a shock announcement Tuesday from the Greek prime minister that he would hold a referendum on Greece's acceptance of the bailout package worked out last week changed all that. The resulting outcry threw the Greek government into disarray, putting it near collapse - which could have precipitated a global emergency. The leaders of the 20 richest countries in the world ended up working out nothing, spending the entire summit glued to their blackberries waiting for news from a tiny country in the Mediterranean.
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2 a5 ?, U1 U5 _* \' B" cTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。The leaders left Cannes tonight with nothing to show for their meeting. No plan to save the eurozone, no funding, and no consensus. Indeed the G20 summit has ended with the world in a worse state than it was in when it started. Europe,and the world, could be just days away from economic collapse if the Greek government collapses tonight in a no-confidence vote scheduled for midnight.

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So who is to blame for all this? The obvious culprit, both from the beginning and this week in particular,is Greece. But though Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou's snap decision to hold a referendum may be mystifying, he and his Socialist party have done nothing to create this crisis. Since they came into power they have only been trying to fix what the previous Conservative government did. One would be hard-pressed to not feel a bit sorry for Papandreou, who came into office in2009 to get the shock of his life when he learned the previous government had been cooking the books. 公仔箱論壇3 L% q% C+ F. `% e$ i

; q8 L) _8 {- n) A- n5.39.217.76But Greece is fast becoming only a bit player in this drama. All eyes are now turning to Italy and its beleaguered and reviled leader Silvio Berlusconi.Yields on Italy's bonds rose to euro-area highs this week, prompting fears that the country may be just days away from collapse. Italy is the third largest economy in the Eurozone and it is too big to bail out, so a collapse of Italy's borrowing ability would likely spell the end of the euro and a global financial crash. But Berlusconi, who does not seem to be in full grasp of reality at this point, is almost literally fiddling while Rome burns.

1 c: Q* |5 L* x9 G, a# _TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。/ j' D9 m7 A9 r/ Y: m" e% R# L4 S
With his black coat wrapped around his shoulders, Berlusconi seemed the ultimate archetypal villain in Cannes. The degree to which the rest of the world's leaders don't trust him was on display today when they forced him to accept IMF monitoring to make sure he actually implements the austerity reforms he promised last week. His deep humiliation over this fact will likely only make his behavior more erratic in the coming weeks.& n) J" A$ z! H# H. _% ]
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There are a host of Southern European leaders who are easy to point fingers at in this disaster. But can the real villain be found further north, in the land of lederhosen and beer steins? Reports coming out of Cannes this week indicated that the US is getting increasingly frustrated with Germany because they see them as the real problem that is blocking a solution to the euro crisis.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb4 l6 f/ A9 b/ _8 d0 F
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After all, the EU has the resources and the ability to solve the euro crisis tomorrow if they wanted. They actually have enough money to build a firewall around Italy and Spain to prevent contagion to those countries - if they had backing from the European Central Bank.  The UK, US and France have all been pleading with Angela Merkel to agree to let the ECB put its economic might behind the bailout. And China has also told them this, most notably when they last week declined to participate in the €1 trillion EFSF bailout fund,pointing out that Europe has the capacity to shore it up itself with the ECB.But Germany regards such a move as antithetical to the precepts of the ECB, the successor to the very conservative Bundesbank. They say the ECB must be kept independent, acting only as a regulator of currency and interest rates.
6 |, q4 d& L6 mTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。
4 C1 ^, |9 y+ h' F  D& G: BOf course the ECB isn't technically controlled by Germany, although it is based in Frankfurt. In fact the ECB as of a few weeks ago has a new leader, the Italian central banker Mario Draghi. But few are expecting him to assert himself with Merkel. There are thoughts that his Italian background might even make him 'more German than the Germans', given that he doesn't want to expose himself to allegations of perverting the traditional role of the ECB in order to save his home country.
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But the fact is that injecting cash in order to shore up an economy is within the remit of a normal centralbank - but not a German one. And no solution to this eurozone crisis can go ahead without Merkel's approval. Who has the authority to tell the Germans that they just have to suck it up and let the ECB get involved in the bail-outs?
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There is only one such power - the United States. If Barack Obama sat Merkel down and told her she must accept a bail-out role for the ECB, it might be enough pressure to make her accept. After all, he can point out, America came to the aid of Germany in 1948 with the massive injection of cash with the Marshall Plan (which Germany is still paying back). Germany owes the United States, and the world, this sacrifice.
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But there is a problem with this idea. European leaders, as well as the European public at large, views the United States as the one who sparked off this economic crisis in the first place. Germans believe the US has lost the moral authority to tell them what to do in this situation because they were the ones who caused the 2008 economic crisis, which in turn sparked the 2010-2011European debt crisis. The euro project was still being built, they say, it needed more time to develop. But the crisis sparked in 2008 by Wall Street and loose American financial regulation exposed the eurozone to a crucial test too early in its development. Why, many German politicians are asking, should they take orders from the very people who sparked this crisis in the first place?

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) H7 h' X. o% G1 L4 \$ ~: Vtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbAnd that's the scary situation we find ourselves in today. There is no leader in this crisis, and seemingly no country has the moral authority or the will to step in and tell the others what to do. The developing world - who are the only ones with the cash to bail out their struggling formal colonial masters - are conversely not yet in a position to exert leadership in this crisis. And with the US and Japan struggling under their own debt problems and political stagnation, there is nobody left to be the adult in the room.
9 @2 S1 v, j! e4 @公仔箱論壇TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。8 w+ f/ a% o: S+ y% X" L8 n
This movie has a lot of villains, but apparently, it has no hero.
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