標題:
Foreigners Continue to Fund US Trade Deficit
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作者:
EasyForexNew
時間:
2009-6-4 12:20 AM
標題:
Foreigners Continue to Fund US Trade Deficit
Economists generally and Dollar bears specifically both love to harp on the perennial US trade imbalance.
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Despite the halving of the trade deficit (reported by the Forex Blog last week)
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, the gap between exports and imports remains sizable;
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it is projected at about a $350 Billion for 2009.
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The more important data point,
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however,
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concerns capital flows.
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This is applies mainly currency traders,
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which are less intrinsically worried about the US trade imbalance than how the rest of the world feels about supporting such a balance.
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For example,
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if the entire trade deficit is recycled (i.e. invested
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) back into the US, than theoretically a trade deficit presents nothing to worry about,
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at least not in the short run.
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[Of course, such a trend may not be sustainable for the long-term, but that is outside the purview of this post
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The Dollar’s de facto role as the world’s reserve currency has historically ensured that this has been the case.
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This phenomena has even been strengthened by the credit crisis,
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as the initial spike in risk aversion generated a steady demand for Dollar-denominated assets.
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However,
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there was concern that this demand was leveling off over the last few months as risk aversion ebbed,
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and foreigners collectively sold a net $95 Billion worth of American assets.
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Over this period, the Dollar by no coincidence has declined across the board, against both emerging market currencies as well as the majors.
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作者:
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時間:
2009-6-12 09:27 AM
標題:
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