本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2015-3-29 10:17 AM 編輯 9 j7 ]# |" ]) ]" \ s9 W0 Ttvb now,tvbnow,bttvb- [/ p& h" c$ S) V* M
安裕周記﹕中國通 / H% W* y/ Y* A% t+ z0 j) NTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5 v/ G. N+ S r* ~3 D2 }6 |
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早前中央電視台第四台一個節目用了至少十分鐘批評美國中國問題專家沈大偉(David Shambaugh)在《華爾街日報》的一篇文章《中國快將崩潰》(The Coming Chinese Crackup),同場還有台灣藍營主力炮手邱毅參與評論。想不到一向被視為溫和派的沈大偉這篇文章會引起如此軒然大波——沈大偉畢竟不是早已被列入拒絕往來戶的哥倫比亞大學教授黎安友(Andrew Nathan),也不是史丹福大學博士生年代被就中共炮轟的毛思迪(Steven Mosher);沈大偉不是明刀明槍支持中國民運反對六四鎮壓的黎安友,也不是因為揭露八十年代中共生育政策殘酷引起北京抗議、之後被史丹福大學開除學籍的毛思迪,他像其他中國通一樣,是研究中國問題的學者,就像在學術期刊寫文章的任何一個北京大學復旦大學美國問題專家那樣。 : M/ q( V% n8 R+ y. B8 \* }2 ^6 rtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb0 `8 u( o) g6 L+ y: Y( K
沈大偉的文章論點早已有報道,此處不贅,不過,「中國通」(China hand)與中共打交道的長路不易擔當。這裏指的中國是一九四九年成立的中華人民共和國,逃到台灣的蔣介石在那年起已不是西方中國通的研究對象。勉強算是因為一九六○年美國總統大選電視辯論,尼克遜與甘迺迪爭論是否應該放棄金門前前後後那幾天,台灣才會被人用來研究一下,其他時間都是放在美國西太平洋政策或中共的亞洲策略的框架研究。地方小,在地緣政治盛行的年代會是吃虧了一些。4 B& T* E% Y, J
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美國是現代中國通的主要來源,日本西歐也有不少夠水平的中國通,可是美國人才多,沈大偉九十年代越洋擔任英國的《中國季刊》(China Quarterly)主編,學力非凡,是溫和派中國通,想不到只是寫了一篇以研究來說的短篇文章卻飽受批判。不過,睽諸以往,像沈大偉如此遭遇的大不乏人,他們不是學力不夠,很多只是不幸在中共要找人開涮時候撞上去;當然也有走運的,可以獲得江青掏心挖肺日以作夜面談之後回去寫五百頁巨著。 . f' e% u; z' \3 i5 F9 v+ n7 o公仔箱論壇tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb$ ?4 w) v3 V1 v7 _9 }& {1 r* [
美國的中國通由來已久,不少中國通與中國的關係可以追溯到家族先輩,八十年代初美國駐華大使恒安石(Arthur Hummel)父親恒慕義上世紀初已在山西傳道教書,恒慕義更是四十年代美國出版的《清代名人傳略》主編,此書幾乎就是研究清朝名人的百科全書,甚獲好評。至於李潔明(James Lilley)和芮效儉(Stapleton Roy)都生於中國,李潔明生在青島,父親是石油公司職員;芮效儉生於南京,父親是金陵大學教授芮陶庵。這些中國通都能說一口無瑕的中國官話;也許讓人失笑,美國先後駐京的中國通當中以上面這三人的中國話最地道,比起廣東台山後裔的駱家輝強得多。 ) ~2 N% h+ j+ L6 D3 R1 S4 Etvb now,tvbnow,bttvb1 f/ [! W1 |5 M/ c7 j
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父執輩流傳的中國研究 4 J, ^7 f V6 v0 r- B `- [tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb / k+ n/ i+ @* _公仔箱論壇中國通與中國關係愛恨交纏,他們或其父執輩生於中國,目睹清末民初以至國共內戰,看到封建王朝結束後依然流延不去的餘毒,看到中國社會的劣根性,貪污腐敗軍閥割據,國家不仁以萬物為芻狗,對清朝以至國民黨政府俱有批判之心。這些人回到美國,對國民政府政權大加批判,對中共大加讚揚,可以說,四十年代到五十年代的美國官方及民間的中國通絕大多數為中共支持者。他們把廉潔中國的夢想寄託在尚在陝西窰洞、河北西柏坡的中共領導人,認為只有這些充滿理想的馬克思主義者才是中國現代化的指路明燈。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。$ m4 Y6 @1 @. R' ?& E% a j
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國民政府遷到陪都重慶期間,這個偏處西南的重鎮國共兩黨官員雲集,美國官方辦事處官員也不少,包括美國新聞處的費正清(John King Fairbank),以及生於成都的傳教士之子、美國駐華使館二等秘書謝偉思(John Service)。他們與中共第一代領導人打交道,親眼目證國民政府軟弱無力,心理上較為親近年輕朝氣的中共諸人,包括能言善辯的周恩來,以及英語了得的燕京大學畢業生新聞官龔澎。他想不到的是,以為中共裏頭都是類似毛澤東的湖南口音書生,卻是來了一批天津北平大城巿英語說得極為流利的大學畢業生,尤其是龔澎,更是駐重慶美國記者及官員的話題人物。費正清在他的自傳體裁結集《到中國去》(China Bound)是這樣描述龔澎出場:「結果是聰明吸引的年輕女子龔澎來找我,她剛接任成為周恩來的出色新聞官……她的氣質糅合了年輕的朝氣以及對中國共產黨信念的堅定信仰,極為善解戰地記者人意,外帶一新耳目的幽默感」(Asa result a very intelligent and attractive young woman named Kung Peng came to see me. She was just at the start of a brilliant career as Chou En-lai's press officer……Her personality combined the freshness of youth with the certainty of her faith in the CCP cause plus a good deal of sophistication about war correspondents and a refreshing sense of humor)。 0 j- q' E& N& e( Q, d5 f5 y 2 x. a. D( E6 n2 S) c1 F$ e: dTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5.39.217.76- T) L& Q! B" Z5 u( y% P
重慶上演的國共宣傳戰2 F( H) q2 H- M* R |6 W
) B6 `7 o+ ^$ S$ s" }& ], h這一條從四十年代重慶而發的中國通之路,有被中共統戰的時代,也有被中共狠批的日子,歲月來往之間,這條研究之路並不好走——若是被認為在適當的時間做適當的事,也許會像重慶年代的費正清謝偉思那樣精神舒暢;反之,在被認為在不適當的時間做不適當的事就會成為箭靶聲聲討伐。至於何以有此差別,恐怕外人難知箇中究竟,我最怕是有人弄錯,把研究中國問題的中國通,搞亂了以為是售賣中國關係的政治掮客,像美國幾位前高官那樣,只講好話不講批評。 5 A c5 _$ c' k/ Y3 k/ M6 A1 nTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。8 s, ]' u& V I0 e 作者: felicity2010 時間: 2015-3-29 10:18 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2015-3-29 10:42 AM 編輯 " i# k3 {1 \0 j+ L9 g; Y- Etvb now,tvbnow,bttvb + v; G5 d$ E7 p/ H: n公仔箱論壇Minxin Pei: The Real Singapore Model ( x: L1 m: t5 A$ Z& _9 [: Htvb now,tvbnow,bttvb1 k: n5 d2 o" E9 K4 F4 ~
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CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – The death of Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s founding father, offers an occasion to reflect on his legacy –and, perhaps more importantly, on whether that legacy has been correctly understood. . g0 c- Z% I6 K$ V4 h6 ]8 NTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。6 E5 I! s6 |4 I7 J7 H
During his 31 years as prime minister, Lee crafted a unique system of government, intricately balancing authoritarianism with democracy and state capitalism with the free market. Known as “the Singapore model,” Lee’s brand of governance is often mischaracterized as a one-party dictatorship superimposed on a free-market economy. His success in transforming Singapore into a prosperous city-state is frequently invoked by authoritarian rulers as justification for their tight control of society – and nowhere more so than in China. + }. E, h& S5 @' ^; I: E 6 K2 L" O& @; u, A* sIndeed, Chinese President Xi Jinping is pursuing a transformative agenda heavily influenced by the Singapore model – a relentless war on corruption, a broad crackdown on dissent, and pro-market economic reforms. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) sees in Singapore a vision of its future: the perpetuation of its monopoly on political power in a prosperous capitalist society. + Y2 C! n `5 ~. L0 N公仔箱論壇tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb% s) k6 K% _' N' N
But the Singapore model, as China’s rulers understand it, never existed. To emulate Lee’s model of government – rather than its cartoon caricature – would require allowing a far more democratic system than the CCP would ever tolerate. : A5 K) c6 s# s9 I) I% |公仔箱論壇 f! W- @+ [6 w) p2 DTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。The true secret of Lee’s political genius was not his skillful use of repressive practices, such as launching lawsuits against the media or his political opponents; such tactics are common and unremarkable in semi-authoritarian regimes. What Lee did that was truly revolutionary was to use democratic institutions and the rule of law to curb the predatory appetite of his country’s ruling elite. $ r/ e7 J6 C% k" ]/ L8 v4 O2 _tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb3 S5 ?2 y4 E3 ]9 O
Unlike China, Singapore allows opposition parties to contest in competitive and free (though not necessarily fair)elections. In the last parliamentary election in 2011, six opposition parties won a total of 40%of the vote. Should the People’s Action Party (PAP), the party Lee founded,lose its legitimacy due to poor governance, Singapore’s voters could throw it out of office. tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb/ N: v8 V7 w9 j: `' g# s' U
/ u Q1 N5 h |* h& K# FBy holding regular competitive elections, Lee effectively established a mechanism of political self-enforcement and accountability – he gave Singaporean voters the power to decide whether the PAP should stay in power. This enforcement mechanism has maintained discipline within Singapore’s ruling elite and makes its promises credible. / G l. O( V; S9 f8 f Z! ]* n公仔箱論壇Regrettably, most of the rest of the world has never given Lee proper credit for crafting a hybrid system of authoritarianism and democracy that vastly improved the well being of his country’s citizens, without subjecting them to the brutality and oppression to which many of Singapore’s neighbors have resorted. ' L4 ~1 T2 ]8 {/ t+ X# z' y2 d' P $ ]* e9 W$ W5 L, MTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。China would be wise to embrace this model, by introducing a considerable degree of democracy and strengthening adherence to the rule of law. China’s 1.4 billion citizens would benefit immensely if their rulers were to adopt Singapore-style political institutions and practices. This would mean, at a minimum, legalizing organized political opposition,introducing competitive elections at regular intervals, and creating an independent judiciary. , ?) ]% y. L* Z( p5.39.217.76 R7 \4 F9 Y9 y8 g+ KEmulating Lee would allow China to achieve immense progress and become a more humane and open society with a brighter future. Sadly, there is almost no chance of this happening, at least any time soon. When China’s leaders cite the Singapore model, what they have in mind is limited to the perpetuation of their power. They want the benefits of political dominance, without the checks imposed by a competitive institutional context. tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb9 t9 ^/ W. i7 @$ O* c
% t; G9 F# d1 \* N) h4 ~5.39.217.76Lee may have been skeptical about the benefits of democracy, but he was not viscerally hostile to it; he understood its usefulness. By contrast, China’s leaders view democracy as an existential ideological threat that must be neutralized at any cost. For them, allowing even a modicum of democracy as a means to impose some discipline on the elite is considered suicidal. 9 U; k9 O$ m5 z# j 5 M( s& h# ~1 r. _TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Unfortunately, Lee is no longer with us. One would like to imagine him explaining to China’s leaders what has been truly innovative about the Singapore model. Obviously, that is not an option. But it would behoove the CCP – if for no other reason than simple respect for one of Asia’s great statesmen – to stop appropriating the Singapore brand in the service of a completely different agenda. 作者: billzhang 時間: 2015-3-29 10:31 PM