# l$ \9 Z$ _' f; U4 n: m歷史很會開玩笑。既然英國佬是千古罪人，連稱讚兩下都會被評為「不愛國」，那麼我也不怕幫忙「踩多兩腳」班死人英國佬，讓大家過一個「快樂愛國」的中秋節、也「溝淡」一下近日繼續「快樂抗爭」的大專學生。: x+ w }$ p2 Q9 @5 c `7 ]
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb9 L( o0 d1 y# I2 P( j$ z# Y8 T
很久沒有寫「公投」分析。不過最近蘇格蘭的「政改公投」，又真是比香港這邊的更加熱鬧，因為真的隨時是變成「蘇格蘭獨立」也說不定。不過稍為定一定神，也又泛起不少疑團。事情看來沒有表面那般簡單：背後的「中國因素」，似乎大家都忽略了。 + _# `* s6 Z7 f O, r1 U9 u* M5.39.217.76tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb+ f% j7 ?; I4 v6 I+ A
首先是有趣的反思：假如暴力可以將一個民族強行納入一個「國家」的版圖，看來難度不大，此即所謂「槍桿子出政權」之類，不算新聞。但要本土民族不會萌生「獨立」的想法，這個看來即使是「統一」三百年之後，也解決不了。其實大清帝國又何嘗不是如此下場，大英帝國又是否可以倖免？ 7 x0 G; g' L6 btvb now,tvbnow,bttvb ) b4 r% p1 v& oTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。先看一下蘇格蘭公投個案由來。 ! [) Q: C; ^8 U- z 0 i, S/ P- S/ }8 `* z7 V7 K7 itvb now,tvbnow,bttvb「英國」的全稱是「大不列顛與北愛爾蘭聯合王國」。所謂「聯合」也者，美其名矣，其實也不過是城下之盟的「條約」，比起南京條約，又清高不了多少。而這個國家名稱，最遲也在1927年在南愛爾蘭分裂出去之後才能安頓下來。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb, {& G. h( w( A+ f! ^6 d
& M: a/ r, z d) ETVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。最早的「合併」在1535年，英格蘭王國以《聯合法案》合併威爾斯公國。然後按《1707年聯合法案》合併蘇格蘭王國，才形成「聯合王國」。當中的「聯合」，是 Union，其實和「統一」又分別不大矣。 1 n, C; a8 I) f7 d _7 Q* p4 s* ]tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb對於這段「聯合」的歷史，其實蘇格蘭人從來都知道是什麼一回事，因此才又會不停有「文化人」出來提醒那段「被聯合」的歷史。近期比較著名的是1995年由Mel Gibson 自編自邊自演的 Braveheart。電影得到10項金像獎提名而奪得了5項，包括最佳電影、最佳導演等等。有評論認為對蘇格蘭重新鬧起獨立來，有很大影響云云。公仔箱論壇! j6 z- A7 S) Q2 Z) B' v
公仔箱論壇0 d/ w3 L1 ]8 S' q TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。% v3 c1 C1 c. I+ g P: A# u/ M
3 ?8 ~8 K9 K" Z/ DTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。而當初蘇格蘭被併入「英國」的版圖，也又是一個漫長的過程，最先是通過王族婚姻而來1，最終在1707年訂立【聯合法案】。/ F( @: f. @: V& H7 \ t o$ e' k+ v
7 N& u9 u/ Y |2 N8 g- kTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。不過大家記憶中的「英國」，是「大英帝國」。而帝國之名稱，以其「日不落國」的獨特地位來發揚光大。這個是人類歷史上第一個「全球帝國」。的確史無前例。而其帝國也分開起碼三個時期，以其「第二帝國」期間（失落美國殖民地之後）約1815-1915的整整一百年間最為鼎盛。- Y1 P7 g# P' m- c7 W* U
8 w/ f0 x) T& e, u( h1 JTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。不過對於帝國的本質，從來也是建基於「掠奪」，這個是千古不易的真理。因而對於「也講英文」的所謂「英倫三島」，其實和北美、印度、非洲的領土一樣，只是心理距離的程度不同而已。即使大家「也講英文」，也別以為人家就是「一家人」。例如當初北美洲的殖民地，不單止只是講英文，而且「人種」之由來，也主要是英倫三島。但當殖民地人民自己起草【獨立宣言】的時候，這個算不算是「叛國」? 這個問題極有趣也。 ' Y8 T! B7 R6 }9 |6 Z公仔箱論壇$ [" I4 C5 k c" o# O
而美國當時也發生過「保皇」爭拗。基於「繁榮穩定」的考慮，當美國獨立戰爭在1776年全面爆發的時候，在北美殖民地當中，其實有大量「誓死效忠宗主國」的建制派反對獨立，甚至參與對革命軍的武裝戰鬥。對於當時美國有多少「保皇黨」，這個仍是沒有正式統計。但大致估計為20%，甚至有所謂「三分天下」的講法：獨立、中立、保皇，搞「美獨」的美國革命黨「也不一定是大多數」。3 Q+ O2 q6 L& k2 p5 T. B. |+ }4 F
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因此「美利堅合眾國」啟動時之所謂「天予人歸」也者，也可以套用「槍桿子出政權」的同類，就是「一小撮叛亂份子」在威脅國家安全而已。而最終「保皇黨」的命運是「向北逃亡」往加拿大。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。3 q/ M" [* o9 C V" c* K( F, o
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美國的「掠奪價值」，在獨立初期似乎並不明顯。那是因為在英國的管治之下，美國殖民地有很清晰的「定位」，那就是為民族利益服務。 8 z; g) _' K& a4 Q% Q2 NTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 " d" c6 Y9 l) s# q* }$ jTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。而英國的民族利益是什麼呢？事後美國成為世界第一經濟強國，這點在當時倫敦的眼中，相對於「國家安全」其實是微不足道的東西。事後來看當然可笑。這個「國家安全」當時是這樣演譯的：就是二等公民的錢只能由愛國的一等公民來賺。殖民地裡面大量的非本國移民，有「私通外國」的風險也。公仔箱論壇/ \4 z }/ R: l. C; r* U @
9 I2 t& v/ [5 X5 U0 }' c0 |! Stvb now,tvbnow,bttvb例如1600年【航海法案】規定，殖民地運往英國的貨物，必須要經由英國製的船隻、並且由英國船長駕駛以及聘用不少於75%的英國船員。殖民地的「行政長官」（時稱總督）必須非常愛國，並「宣誓效忠」這條由倫敦一錘定音的法案。而北美殖民地規定不能向其他國家提供煙草、大米、糖以及靛藍(染料)。而同樣由歐洲對美洲貿易也必須由英國船隻包辦。公仔箱論壇2 k. M4 A4 V7 R2 [
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。$ D& `& K( O B# R0 v1 }4 e) s
延至1696年，「由於殖民地法官不乏同情走私客」，很明顯連法官也不愛國，這還了得! 因而有關貿易禁令要改由英國法庭裁決：美國殖民地連原本已有的終審權也沒有了。這種「高度自治」的安定繁榮再延至1750年，英國又發現禁止不了美洲殖民「自己搞生產」，於是乾脆下令「不得另起爐灶」，真的是爐灶噢：禁止美洲殖民地興建製鐵工廠! 以確保「宗主國的經濟安全」。唉，原來所謂「經濟安全也是國家安全」，太陽底下無新事物噢。日後由於1773年的茶葉抗稅運動終於演變為武力革命，可謂「冰封三尺非一日之寒」。 8 m8 Z+ T' ~7 R1 O0 T( l. iTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 1 C& Q! J9 j. D# r9 vTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。美國的所謂「高度自治」之下的溫水煮蛙「英國夢」，原來足足煮了過百年才是「夢醒時分」。如此搵笨也可以過骨？真是天真到加零壹，那有本事做世界霸權，對人家說三道四… ' \$ g v5 s) F9 u4 C/ G1 a , e/ F# t8 f5 F) \8 Z5 t2 P+ b H; }* e至於蘇格蘭那邊呢？理論上來講，相對於英格蘭的「中原」，蘇格蘭是「不毛之地」嘛。貪來幹啥？況且人口才不過520萬，比香港還要少！搞她媽的什麼獨立？況且只佔英國人口不到7%！要搞獨立？問過千千萬萬的英國同胞沒有？ 7 f! V1 \: v$ u1 k& S: u . z2 o; v: Z# J3 s5 {不過蘇格蘭就是勝在夠「勇武」，大英帝國的百年帝國光環，其實蘇格蘭的供獻極大。例如對於整個大西洋北部海域和航道的控制、造船和冶金工業的大幅提升，以至人命的輸出（單是第一次世界大戰，蘇格蘭派出戰鬥人員50萬，佔全蘇格蘭成年男性人口的一半！），都令得大英帝國如虎添翼。而到了二十世紀，隨着「北海油田」的開發，蘇格蘭更加成為歐洲的石油首都。7 p. s6 D% S2 Q( W
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。- M* R# O. L, u; L0 C# M: `
這塊肥肉，英國可以放口嗎？而蘇格蘭人又不知道嗎？ # r% W Z; _% [% z% RTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。" V; W( \$ s' {2 s/ N
不過又是那一句，歷史發展，不會隨主觀意願而有所改變。按《星期日泰吾士報》的最民調結果顯示：贊成獨立的比例，經已在上星期（2014年9月6日）超越反對獨立的比例。 ) r, Z1 w# f) f o/ V8 `公仔箱論壇 , e! K0 N: O5 Z: l. p$ F! MTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 , _; u; X% [1 i) h" [2 C+ z5.39.217.76 + ^' x' r* z3 N3 z& I5 |tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb其實這個結果並無意外，只是「延遲」了一年出現。早在一年之前，當時的民調顯示：趨勢有危險。但「非常幸運地」，獨立派過不了45%的水位。而且直至2014年7月仍是這樣2。那麼到底這幾個月，蘇格關又發生了什麼事？ 6 d! K3 G% p" K) e6 S7 P, m" {tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 4 r8 L) t, y0 [0 j* d( t- {2 ^) ]. N' |公仔箱論壇或者可以反過來問，英國又發生了什麼事？阻止不了「一少撮別有用心的反對派」？ + L* ]) G7 ?7 ? t* u4 X$ E2 x( C% U; _% o2 e: Y0 j
原來英國佬真的是「中了計」！ . T& k Q4 u, P. Mtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 4 u# y7 z+ _: b' Q8 ~0 j" b( l. Ltvb now,tvbnow,bttvb假如英國按照在早前的「民調」結果，反對派拿不過45%的選票。因此即使不採取「落閘放狗」的措施，也可以「扮大方」讓蘇格蘭人自己去搞一下也不妨。於是在蘇格蘭的地方選舉，也沒有大規模的介入。5.39.217.764 b! Z* ?. N3 B
^8 J+ C6 Z; q( t& C6 r4 W) _TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。而在當初蘇格蘭爭取得到進行獨立公投的時候3，英國佬也「設計了安全措施」。例如法案當中規定的公投資格包括了大量「親英」的原素，尤其是「按在蘇格蘭的居留權」來界定，可以公投的選民包括了：5.39.217.764 {' O) c3 [8 v/ V' O
1. 居住在蘇格蘭的英國公民tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb1 y& @+ y, W/ W2 F1 }
2. 居住在蘇格蘭的52個英聯邦國家公司5.39.217.76( c( c, U0 t! _4 w
3. 居住在蘇格蘭的歐盟27國公民 9 P% R m! B& N7 \# o5.39.217.764. 居住在蘇格蘭的英國上議院議員tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb+ w, i; ]4 C) Y) f& S
5. 居住在蘇格蘭的英國駐軍 . u) A) C4 @5 g- k; `因此反觀梁振英謂「香港沒有國藉的人也可以投票是例外」，這個講法，明顯是「發雞盲」。蘇格蘭就是只按「居留權」來界定投票資格，這個和香港的確是法律相通、一脈相承。 " }" |( ^7 m% A5.39.217.768 R8 L/ l5 w! E; N9 o6 x
之不過，所謂「眼大睇過龍」就是這種情況。英國按以上的「居留權」來篩選，獨立派的票源原本也不超過45%。這是2013年底的數據。之不過同時「非常陰毒」的反對派策劃了「降低投票年齡」，由18改為16歲！這就解釋了為何在幾個月之內，「民意」會「過界」。因為民調先前也已指出：傾向獨立的群組，主要集中在「低收入、低學歷、婦女」部份，換句話：弱勢社群。那麼蘇格蘭的年輕人屬於那個群組？ 一眼就應該看得通吧？- B% X' i9 w* {3 w
' S+ l; q/ F% q( d: w因此在計入年輕人的意向之後：金翅大鑊鳥。 - \# a1 `! r: A, ?! [2 Q, K公仔箱論壇 $ |. T* f, y6 t. F5.39.217.76目前英國仍在亡羊補牢之中。其中一招，就是盡量發動退休人仕（一般沒有表態）出來投票，並且以「反動亂、保福利」作為籌碼。真狼狽。& w, A" z! I& @$ R3 v2 C2 t
但正如文首提及，到底「中國因素」在這個時候發生了什麼作用？tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb' A* L3 p) b: N
第一， 為什麼卡梅倫政府又發出通告，謂支持北京發表政改決定，又呼籲香港的大中華膠繼續第二輪諮詢？ / H$ b4 c& d0 ]8 f. bTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。第二， 李克強之前6月去英國訪問，為什麼商務問題又要「強行拜訪」英女皇？ + d/ |+ a% H/ j2 N公仔箱論壇第三， 蘇格蘭的蘇中商會又無獨有偶地在同月出訪中國，談「促進貿易」。公仔箱論壇6 c# b: f# D7 H" o
第四， 而正正就是2013年年底，蘇格蘭首席部長薩蒙德任內第四次出訪中國，也是談貿易。 ( n+ Q/ s- |$ Q2 o. a' Vtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb第五， 同年6月，蘇格蘭議會對外關係委員會舉行了一次關於愛丁堡對華策略的專門聽證會：聽證會認為，在貿易會談中提及中國人權問題只會「極之適得其反」。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb2 y; _% `, K+ t' I" N7 E
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巧合嗎？很簡單了吧：因應蘇格蘭對英國的「安全」問題，中國的功夫做得十足十。「強行拜訪英女皇」之後，李克強對英政府的發言是：我們歡迎一個強盛、繁榮以及統一的英國。 8 t. r* d% Q# r5 a3 C( D" P' b$ _3 ]( [3 a" i+ S3 ?
換言之，中國在「蘇格蘭公投」一事上，大打「分裂」牌，而且「有錢」可以為蘇格蘭獨立「包底」。起碼在姿態上是這樣，而且英國和蘇格蘭也分別「真心膠」地信到十足十。要是蘇格蘭談人權問題，那就要為獨立冒險，中國生意隨時做不成。相反，口頭上是很支持英國維持統一，但最好「老老實實做生意」，別來談香港的事。也又很明顯，是否支持蘇格蘭獨立這張牌，可以「大」得到英國首相卡梅倫。 7 m+ t; G+ x3 k( v9 Q4 B公仔箱論壇 $ U9 \1 ~" @2 r! R) hTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。因此到底「英國」想怎樣的問題，其實香港的因素極少。反而因為香港政改影射蘇格蘭公投，或者反過來蘇格蘭公投影射香港，這個才是大問題。而彭定康吃過中國的大虧，當然和卡梅倫過不去！那只是英國執政保守黨的內部矛盾，而且重點是蘇格蘭而不是香港。/ F. y t8 e7 }0 y4 N! {8 m% C4 W
the Scottish Independence Referendum Bill。英國在2013年12月通過
作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-9-9 02:23 PM
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Harold James : Should Scotland Leave the Pound Zone?( K# c8 I6 r3 x2 k
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* }0 C( x0 B9 _0 d3 ^PRINCETON –As Scotland prepares for this month’s referendum on independence, the United Kingdom – indeed, all of Europe – must brace itself for the impact of a successful bid. Scottish independence would revolutionize the British and European constitutional frameworks, and give a tremendous boost to other European separatist movements, from Catalonia to northern Italy. The economic impact of independence, however, is far less certain. ! J. t) q' x' C3 O: @8 G7 t 9 N( z' _# i" P; s8 Etvb now,tvbnow,bttvbAdvocates of independence have long insisted that they are motivated primarily by the distinctiveness of Scottish identity. But Scotland’s history and traditions,while undoubtedly its own, have been shaped by centuries of interaction with England and other parts of the British Isles." I: U' `. Z" L
The more immediate issue for Scots is money. The question of whether an independent Scotland could or should continue to use the British pound has dominated discussions over the last few months of the referendum campaign. The outcome –for Scotland, the UK, and Europe – could vary widely, depending on which path Scotland chooses.公仔箱論壇) n0 @ [5 T; ^! }6 {; J& c8 v
3 q# E: U" o. D! t6 D公仔箱論壇So far,Scottish nationalists have insisted that an independent Scotland would retain the pound. But, given how much easier it would be to make the case for a separate currency – not to mention the fact that Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has explicitly rejected Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond’s proposed currency union – such declarations amount to an own goal. : N: _) ]. b8 i. t/ o( ~4 @ " s2 N' p( d6 L) a. u' K公仔箱論壇The problem with the Scottish nationalists’ vision is a mirror image of the eurozone’s main shortcoming. Given that a single currency cannot function without a common monetary policy, and that economic conditions across the currency union differ,individual members will, at times, be subject to unsuitable policies.公仔箱論壇( Y ]( b# w! d g8 N
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For example,during the construction boom of the 2000s, Ireland and Spain should have had tighter monetary conditions, higher interest rates, and lower loan/asset ratios. But their eurozone membership meant that government and private-sector borrowers alike benefited from very low interest rates. After the financial crisis erupted, and policymakers began seeking ways to compel banks to revive lending in these and other struggling countries, it became apparent that there were no available tools to employ.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb* ?/ j+ j" i' V4 r( K- E
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Today, the UK faces a similar dilemma. The property boom in the London area demands tighter monetary conditions. But higher rates would wreak economic havoc on the rest of the country, where the recovery remains anemic. $ Q6 X. E4 v Ftvb now,tvbnow,bttvb2 c) P0 {2 G: X T; J( W( k
Moreover,like Germany, London maintains a huge current-account surplus (8% of GDP) – a potentially serious problem, given the deflationary effect that Germany’s surplus has had on the rest of the eurozone. Already, the rest of the UK runs an external deficit that is higher than that of any industrialized country.公仔箱論壇" `! R! _& z1 P7 x2 L0 t4 O9 E
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The behavior of a currency can be driven by one powerful and preeminent sector of the economy; in the pound’s case, it is the financial sector. Some viewed the pound’s rapid decline in 2007 and 2008 – a 30% depreciation in trade-weighted terms – as a much-needed economic stimulus, given the boost that it implied for export competitiveness. The UK’s independent monetary policy provided it with a level of flexibility that the eurozone economies lacked. % ~% E' U. b% s% ^. G公仔箱論壇TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。1 B2 J3 B1 l3 k
But the revival of confidence in the financial sector has caused the pound to rebound sharply (by 18%since the end of 2008), eroding the UK’s competitiveness gain. What is good for the City of London is not necessarily good for the rest of the economy.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb+ n+ L# ] R6 H4 i2 e# w9 o- l" V
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There is thus an unmistakable appeal in escaping an economic arrangement that shackles Scotland to London – an appeal that the great Scottish economist Adam Smith would have recognized. Indeed, his most influential work, The Wealth of Nations, was motivated by the belief that the interests of the London merchant community were distorting British commercial policy. ) `1 O, A5 D9 U( n$ V; ^( w' m3 c ~ a: [
The alternative to retaining the pound, however, presents its own challenges.According to the Scottish economist Ronald MacDonald, an independent Scotland should have its own currency,which would behave like a petro-currency, owing to the economy’s dependence on North Sea gas and oil. % n& h# d" U/ X0 Y/ j$ M
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But replacing one dominant sector with another is probably not good for the rest of the Scottish economy, which would lose competitiveness whenever surging energy prices pushed up the exchange rate. As less competitive industries were driven into loss and insolvency, economic activity would become even more concentrated and specialized. 2 N9 D, \9 W% g6 Q ZTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 g2 K8 j1 R& t5 g9 i. k5.39.217.76Placing the burden of adjustment on the exchange rate is not the answer. The small, open economies of Switzerland and Norway – important models for Scotland – struggled with sharp currency appreciation during the global financial crisis. For Switzerland, the solution was to implement a ceiling on the franc’s exchange rate against the euro. ( U5 J0 s5 I- B7 V9 p & p, Z8 X9 f5 v3 h2 DThis should inspire Scotland to pursue association with a larger currency area and a more diversified economy. How about adopting the euro?5.39.217.76+ E J9 S+ c$ |8 ~) C5 A* h. D
* G; W9 |8 t1 ^! y5 {公仔箱論壇Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University, Professor of History at the European University Institute, Florence, and a senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation. A specialist on German economic history and on globalization, he is the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle, Krupp: A History of the Legendary German Firm,and Making the European Monetary Union. 7 ^3 }3 k3 U, F3 C" ^* h# x' Y& I* M* l* |# B! z$ ~ 作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-9-11 10:42 PM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-9-11 10:49 PM 編輯 TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。3 n9 P8 T# t3 z. y0 R9 X, J
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The Economist: UK RIP ? - H/ w. I4 E: @9 btvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5 c [' v: l( j Ditching the union would be a mistake for Scotland and a tragedy for the country it leaves behind- s3 [4 ^; k7 e/ T
; ^! T, m* w; o. }- p% u: s. n' E公仔箱論壇TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。+ K8 ^2 p/ [( J& v 1 b6 W5 [/ E6 ?TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。" O3 S" F& `! O8 \7 C
SCHOOL CHILDREN once imagined their place in the world, with its complex networks and allegiances, by writing elaborate postal addresses. British youngsters began with their street and town (London or Manchester, Edinburgh or Cardiff),followed by England, Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland; then came the United Kingdom (and after that Europe, the World, the Universe…). They understood that the UK, and all its collective trials and achievements—the industrial revolution, the Empire, victory over the Nazis, the welfare state—were as much a part of their patrimony as the Scottish Highlands or English cricket. They knew, instinctively, that these concentric rings of identity were complementary, not opposed. 8 U; S5 u9 r6 A. F- |* J9 d! @3 mTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 3 ?" k- b, v/ ~* V, Q7 U. ]2 Q1 R公仔箱論壇At least,they used to. After the referendum on Scottish independence on September 18th,one of those layers—the UK—may cease to exist, at least in the form recognisable since the Act of Union three centuries ago. As the vote nears,Scotland’s nationalists have caught up with the unionist No camp in the opinion polls, and even edged ahead (see article). More and more Scots are deciding that the UK, which their soldiers, statesmen,philosophers and businessmen have done so much to build and ornament, does not cradle their Scottishness but smothers it. This great multinational state could be undone in a single day, by a poll in which just 7% of its citizens will participate. That outcome, once unthinkable, would be bad for Scotland and tragic for what remained of the UK. 9 O. M" |* o' s r ! f' G/ N3 C, n, [4 Y5.39.217.762 @) R1 C" e' o+ r
The damage a split would do 0 Z: L2 M+ x8 d- e# F! g" _! jtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。! V1 F3 U) f1 |* \, c& ?+ [
The rump of Britain would be diminished in every international forum: why should anyone heed a country whose own people shun it? Since Britain broadly stands for free trade and the maintenance of international order, this would be bad for the world. Its status as a nuclear power would be doubtful: the country’s nuclear submarines are based in a Scottish loch and could not be moved quickly. Britain would also be more likely to leave the European Union, since Scots are better disposed to Europe than are the English (and are less likely to vote for the Conservatives, who are promising a Euro-referendum if they win next year’s general election). The prospect of a British exit from the EU would scare investors much more than a possible Scottish exit from Britain (see article). . z* j# |1 f* U6 Y [# t6 ^/ I9 n8 ATVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。+ n7 ~( r. v0 D0 h0 \, Z2 o
The people of Scotland alone will decide the future of Britain, and they are not obliged to worry about what becomes of the state they would leave. But—perhaps not surprisingly, given the endurance and success of the union, imperilled though it is—Scots’ own interests, and the rest of Britain’s, coincide.+ Y4 h- E: P. a0 G' O: k
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At the heart of the nationalist campaign is the claim that Scotland would be a more prosperous and more equal country if it went solo. It is rich in oil and inherently decent, say the nationalists, but impoverished by a government in Westminster that has also imposed callous policies. They blame successive British governments for almost every ill that has befallen Scotland, from the decline of manufacturing industry to ill-health to the high price of sending parcels in the Highlands. Alex Salmond, Scotland’s nationalist leader, is broad in his recrimination: Labour and the Tories are of a piece, he suggests, in their disregard for Scotland. 8 q5 d( X; X' n8 k7 L7 f" N; ^8 g * \, l3 e- b, ^3 YBut Scotland’s relative economic decline is the result not of southern neglect but of the shift of manufacturing and shipping to Asia. If Westminster has not reversed all the deleterious effects of globalisation and technology, that is because to do so is impossible. The nationalists know this, which is why, sotto voce, they would continue many of Westminster’s policies. Instead they make much of minor adjustments, such as abolishing the “bedroom tax”, a recent measure designed to nudge people out of too-large social housing. To break up a country over such small, recent annoyances would be nuts.- @4 ] W) p9 i2 W5 d f4 g
- Y# C+ x1 Y8 lTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。The nationalists’ economics are also flawed. Scotland would not, in fact, be richer alone. The taxes that would flow to it from the North Sea would roughly compensate for the extra cost of its lavish state, which would no longer be funded by Westminster (last year spending was some £1,300 per person higher in Scotland than elsewhere in Britain). But oil revenues are erratic. They would have earned Scotland £11.5 billion in 2008-09 but only £5.5 billion in 2012-13.If an independent state were to smooth these fluctuations by setting up an oil fund, it would have less cash to spend now. In any case, the oil is gradually running out. In order to maintain state spending after it is gone, taxes would have to rise. And a crunch might come much sooner. Foreign investors and big businesses that mostly serve English customers could well move south. 6 o, ~ J9 J O* b5.39.217.76公仔箱論壇, P! f3 Q5 @$ A4 o" B% q6 \
Westminster has ruled out a currency union (see article)—correctly,given that the nationalists propose a deficit-widening fiscal splurge and that the assets of Scottish banks are an alarming 12 times the country’s GDP. It might relent, but only if Scotland agrees to such strict oversight that independence ends up meaning little. The nationalists say that kinks over currency and the like could be worked out amicably—that it would not be in Britain’s interests to antagonise its new northern neighbour, particularly since (they hint darkly) Scotland could refuse to take on its share of the national debt. They are far too sanguine. If Scotland goes, the rest of Britain will be furious, both at the Scots and at their own leaders, who will be impelled to drive a hard bargain.公仔箱論壇: w; y0 _' Z. E' G# b
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Mr Salmond is on stronger ground when he argues that if Scotland does not leave Britain it might be dragged out of the EU against its will. This is indeed a danger, but in going independent Scotland would swap the possibility of an EU exit for a certain future as a small, vulnerable country. Its best hope of remaining influential is to stay put, and fight the Eurosceptics. : G5 K* i: T! T2 w4 j公仔箱論壇tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb$ F. s% C2 E0 Q; ~
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A lot to lose 2 Q1 }2 u4 d! K- z. nTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。公仔箱論壇/ p; J* h' p7 S9 C6 w! A" }
In the end the referendum will turn not on calculations of taxes and oil revenue, but on identity and power. The idea that Scots can shape their own destiny, both at the referendum and afterwards, is exhilarating. Yet Scotland already controls many of its own affairs (even if Mr Salmond’s Scottish National Party, which runs the devolved government and is driving the Yes campaign, has not done much with its powers so far). Moreover, as Westminster politicians of all stripes have hastily made clear, if Scotland votes No, the devolved administration will soon get so much clout that the practical difference between staying in the union and leaving it will narrow. That would also lead to the distribution of power away from Westminster and to other bits of Britain, which should have happened long ago. 3 R0 G2 d7 d" F公仔箱論壇公仔箱論壇5 V& [3 X6 E! d; G' }$ P
So by staying in, Scots will not just save the union but enhance it, as they have for300 years. For the UK, with all its triumphs and eccentricities, belongs to Scots as much as it does to the English—even if increasing numbers of them seem ready to disown that glorious, hard-earned heritage, and to simplify their identities by stripping out one of those concentric rings. That goes against both the spirit of this fluid century—in which most people have multiple identities, whether of place, ethnicity or religion—and the evidence of the preceding three. For all its tensions and rivalries, and sometimes because of them, the history of the union shows that the Scots, Welsh, English and Northern Irish are stronger, more tolerant and more imaginative together than they would be apart.5.39.217.76$ v0 K& |" c3 U- |6 T
# \) o$ n0 g5 e: l) Y 作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-9-12 06:57 AM
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TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。; ~% ?! q! C1 `+ p7 {2 V; C6 |