一代人的堅持 跨地域的良知／文﹕盧子健 ( X% k- R @/ _% Y5.39.217.76 0 Z9 j1 T( v2 ]3 r' q1 ~5 dtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb——悼念「六四」事件25周年5.39.217.76* }. }3 d& @0 j) l9 L' Z$ k& e. X
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悼念「六四」，不單是為了香港，也是為了中國。: p% v; G6 u& l
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悼念「六四」，不單是為了中國，也是為了人類的良知。 5 d4 u3 Z( z/ ?. Y qtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 1 Y) W4 c& w) o, }8 f* V' N悼念「六四」，不單是為了這一代的良知，也是為了下一代的良知。: s- _- {: q8 X7 e+ Y% z
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。% t3 c7 }* Q1 M( {
「六四」事件雖然轉眼間已經過去25年，我們這一代曾經為當年內地民主運動所鼓舞，而後來又因為其受鎮壓而悲痛的香港人始終不能忘記、也未敢忘記。我們堅持悼念「六四」，並希望薪火相傳，希望下一代不要忘記這場悲劇，希望他們繼續為中國的民主、自由和法治奮鬥。; i' d/ m( F( O& c" b! B6 ~
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去年10月，我第一次到訪德國柏林。當年象徵東西歐的分裂、資本主義和共產主義兩大陣營對抗的柏林圍牆，是在1989年倒下。那一年，中國的民主運動以悲劇收場。但在東歐，民主運動結束了共產黨的統治，為久經苦難的人民帶來了新生。 / c3 y$ O& |+ g 2 u# E* Y1 z9 ]. p( X- z- b. `( t5.39.217.76初次到訪柏林的旅客自不然會參觀圍牆的遺址。當我走過當年柏林圍牆曾經屹立的道路時，難免感慨萬千。過去20多年間，德國復歸統一，人民共享民主、自由和法治，政治、經濟和社會形勢穩定，國家成為歐洲第一大國。同一期間，中國經濟翻了幾番，以購買力平價計算整體經濟已經追上美國，綜合國力亦肯定已經晉身世界前列，但「六四」當年民主運動的理想仍然有如鏡花水月，遙不可及。在維穩的大前提下，在中國還有多少良心犯身陷囹圄？tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb# j4 A* G! ]1 X, `
0 T Q7 t# G3 J* e; stvb now,tvbnow,bttvb不過，柏林令我印象最深刻的歷史紀念場所不是圍牆遺址，而是紀念上世紀二次大戰期間大屠殺的一個「碑林」。共產主義曾經吸引以億計的世界人民，但在歷史長河中只不過是一個短暫的片段。今天儘管還有少數國家是由號稱共產黨的政府執政，但是其國家的社會制度與共產主義風馬牛不相及。暴政、極權和專制也從來未有停止過為人類帶來苦難。上世紀納粹黨為猶太人帶來苦難，也為歐洲人民帶來苦難，亦為德國人民帶來苦難。悼念當年的大屠殺，不單單是令當年枉死的猶太人安息，更重要的是為沒有良知的黑暗日子作見證，並在這個基礎上重新煥發德國人的良知。堅持不忘大屠殺，才使德國人走出陰霾，重建一個繁榮、穩定和進步的國家。' v ~# V6 h5 u2 [* T. ^% p
J4 l$ Y/ y3 H& B, c/ N/ F公仔箱論壇 V& F, w$ K9 X$ M. PTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。HONG KONG – It may be hard to imagine, but 25years ago, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was nearly toppled by a nationwide pro-democracy movement. It was the late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping’s steely nerves and the tanks of the People’s Liberation Army – dispatched to enforce martial law and suppress the protests in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square – that enabled the regime, at the cost of several hundred civilian lives, to avoid collapse.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。: @& Q; S4 p* H, \
On the 25th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre of June 4, 1989, two questions stand out: how has the CCP survived the last quarter-century, and can its rule endure for another 25years? - h6 r3 G7 q* C% p5.39.217.76. O( Z. ]* }0 o, I+ U/ X5 a$ w& r
The answer to the first question is relatively straightforward. Policy adjustments, clever tactics of manipulation,and a healthy dose of luck enabled the CCP to win the support it needed to retain power and suppress destabilizing forces. " l8 F# P/ K8 |! |, S* f- c+ Mtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb # I, Z: T& E0 r% Rtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbTo be sure, serious mistakes were made.Following the massacre, China’s conservative leaders attempted to reverse the liberalizing reforms that Deng had initiated in the 1980’s, plunging the Chinese economy into recession. And the Soviet Union’s implosion in 1991 caused a panic in the CCP.公仔箱論壇" E- e. y/ ^5 N, N! T1 \8 i" u
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But Deng again managed to save the Party.Mustering all of his energy and political capital, the 87-year-old leader revived pro-market economic reforms, unleashing an economic revolution that delivered an unprecedented wave of growth and development, thereby boosting the CCP’s credibility considerably.5.39.217.767 U6 a/ N' _( ?: r8 V- F" \
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Deng and his successors buttressed this trend by granting Chinese citizens considerable personal freedoms, fueling the emergence of a culture of crass consumerism and mass entertainment. In this new world of “bread and circuses,” it was far easier for the CCP to regain public support and suppress the opposition. Carefully orchestrated moves to promote Chinese nationalism and exploit xenophobia also helped.5 j; t: X G7 |7 @7 L
7 X2 C. c5 t7 p; f4 G8 y! ?5.39.217.76Even repression, the mainstay of the regime’s survival, was fine-tuned. China’s newly acquired wealth enabled its leaders to build one of the world’s most technically sophisticated Internet firewalls and equip its internal security forces with the most effective tools. ) b# s: ?0 L' t* C8 Q, G8 ^' t- G/ N/ x2 i9 ^ U a
In dealing with China’s small but resilient dissident community, the regime depends on the strategy of “decapitation.” In other words, the government eliminates the threat posed by leading opposition figures by jailing them or forcing them into exile, regardless of their prominence. Liu Xiaobo – who won the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize – was sentenced to11 years in prison, despite worldwide protest.2 t" N# [4 F$ f" o r7 [
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However cynical, the approach has worked. But the CCP might not have been quite so successful had it not gotten lucky in a few critical areas. For starters, the post-1992 reforms coincided with a surge of globalization, which provided China with massive capital inflows (about $1 trillion in foreign direct investment since 1992), a slew of new technologies, and virtually unimpeded access to Western consumer markets. China thus became the workshop of the world, with its exports rising more than tenfold by 2007. & M9 z. I/ m- |! `; P: \2 | v公仔箱論壇 ! s& z! d6 D. D$ o* J \( DAnother factor that worked in the regime’s favor was the so-called demographic dividend (an abundant labor force and a relatively small percentage of children and elderly dependents). This provided China with plentiful low-cost labor, while saving the government large expenditures on pensions and health care.% C- S- Z0 H* Q0 K, @% E3 L) X
5 }) \5 ~' j1 g公仔箱論壇The problem facing the CCP now is that most of the factors that enabled it to survive since Tiananmen either have already disappeared or are headed in that direction. Indeed, for all practical purposes, pro-market reforms are dead. A kleptocracy of government officials,their families, and well-connected businessmen has colonized the Chinese state and is intent on blocking any reforms that might threaten their privileged status.公仔箱論壇2 M, r* b/ d2 E- c, z
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Moreover, the CCP can no longer count on rising prosperity to sustain public support. Rampant corruption and rising inequality, together with obvious environmental decay, are causing ordinary Chinese – especially the middle class, which once had high hopes for reform –to become increasingly disillusioned.) u' F) M% W% n7 g5 V/ ^+ D
% t. l1 J; n G2 ?# f7 G: DAt the same time, given rapid population aging, China’s demographic dividend has all but dissipated. And, given that China is already the world’s largest exporter, with more than 11% of the global market share, there is little room left for export growth in the coming years.4 i4 A" Z7 R A& @) O' }7 J0 M
That leaves only repression and nationalism in the CCP’s post-Tiananmen toolkit. And, indeed, both of them continue to play a central role in President Xi Jinping’s strategy for ensuring the Party’s survival. 9 v0 k9 n- y9 |- M* T: n \9 G8 ktvb now,tvbnow,bttvb # [* D; J% G, D5.39.217.76But Xi is also experimenting with two new devices: an unprecedented anti-corruption campaign and an attempt to revive pro-market reforms. So far, his war on corruption has made a bigger impact than his plan for economic reform. 5 V& P! ~9 V6 |0 zTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( H0 i1 }- Q. Q, x
On the surface, Xi’s strategy seems sound.But waging war on corrupt officials and pressing for deep reforms aimed at dismantling China’s kleptocracy will inevitably bring Xi into conflict with China’s political and economic elites. The question is how he can overcome their resistance without rallying the Chinese people, whose political mobilization could endanger the one-party system. * F' c# U4 I1 j- m2 R) ~tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, B6 `3 h K+ V' a% r6 m/ |# _
The CCP defied the doomsayers after 1989: It survived and preempted any further threats to its power. But the odds that it can hold on for another quarter-century have grown long – and are unlikely to improve. 8 T. N# z- ?: q0 O3 J3 k6 m5.39.217.76 8 [2 o$ d9 y$ k公仔箱論壇Minxin Pei is Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College and a non-resident senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. 8 A1 J% Q8 N8 ?" G- o7 mtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb3 x% Z* g/ C' Y& j! S6 }5 W+ _7 D' ~ 作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-5-28 06:33 AM
