本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-4-15 10:45 PM 編輯 ( r+ J6 g8 J+ e' E8 {$ B' mtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。) J* `$ r" n$ V. g4 _
Pro-Russian mob targets journalists in Ukraine - BBC News5.39.217.76; D! a2 M1 J9 ]& e8 u: f
3 k. T+ z& ^: E+ N. B[youtube]sQ-hkBVlZtg[/youtube]公仔箱論壇9 }) C+ q/ V [: g. r- M
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The Economist: A rising Russian tidetvb now,tvbnow,bttvb) B$ S* ]* \% \! ~# Q" {5 r# v
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TOWN by town, eastern Ukraine is falling under the control of men hostile to the Ukrainian state. On April 14th it was the turn of Gorlivka (also known as Horlivka), a 45-minute drive from the regional capital of Donetsk. A couple of hours earlier a deadline had expired,set by Ukraine's president, Alexander Turchinov, who demanded that men occupying government and police buildings leave them. The previous day Mr Turchinov had warned that the army would be deployed to regain control of the east.1 V; w4 Y; \, s6 a( `* \
! }2 F, f$ `- S B$ Btvb now,tvbnow,bttvbGorlivka is a mining town and has strategic value as an important railway junction. Other towns where police buildings have been seized in the past few days—including Slaviansk and Kramatorsk—lie on the main highway to Kharkiv, in the north, through which Russian troops based in Belgorod would have to pass in case of a fully-fledged invasion.公仔箱論壇8 s# N" r( ~9 Y% x% J+ ^
, ~9 ~! U W8 L( w; A# S5 K: t3 XTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。To the south this road leads to Mariupol, on the Black Sea coast and close to the Russian border. Here the police building has also fallen into the hands of pro-Russian rebels. To the west of Donetsk,on the main road to Kiev, at Krasnoarmiysk, an attempt to take the police building has so far failed. Whoever controls this has access to arms and the police officers who, willingly or not, have mostly gone over to the side of rebels.公仔箱論壇" h4 o: Q! c1 f9 W6 z
On the evening of April 12th a film showed a military-style unit seizing the police building in Kramotorsk. Ordinary but organised locals were then left in charge. The taking of the Gorlivka police building was far more chaotic. Groups of thuggish-looking men with baseball bats, stones, helmets and Molotov cocktails tried to gain access but were initially held at bay. Stun grenades were thrown out of the building, in no apparent direction.+ @+ X* _* S7 i& H+ C+ f( h
) {4 D4 O" s1 D5 |% n6 TAs the morning wore on, a man with a Russian flag on a fishing rod clambered up the side of the Gorlivka police building,took down the Ukrainian flag from the covered entrance and replaced it. As he began to climb back down he either fell off the building or was pushed. A policeman then climbed out of the window of the building and tore down the Russian flag.A policewoman could be seen throwing a piece of paper out of the window which appeared to be a list of people surrendering. ' L B# \* \) M$ o/ f$ PTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 ( p" q/ L: R% o7 I5 ]1 DUgly scenes ensued as the mob armed with truncheons and iron bars pushed into the building and resistance began to crumble. Towards the end only the commander and his deputy were left fending them off. Once they too were overpowered, the deputy was beaten and made to kneel before being allowed into an ambulance, according to an eyewitness. U1 C& @ O7 ?5.39.217.76 ' C8 o" X$ T; d% X/ p" q `( TWhen two men appeared on the roof of the building to raise the flag of the self-proclaimed Donetsk Republic, some began to laugh as it was held aloft triumphantly, but upside down. Inside the building two British journalists were assaulted but escaped unscathed after they had handed over the memory card from their camera.公仔箱論壇: ]7 E" a6 \' e: `
! R$ m/ O/ x( |4 e! Q: @tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbA man in military uniform then announced from the stairs of the building that the police had switched sides. He demanded that there be no looting or lynching and asked for people to bring tyres and wood to build barricades. People around the building applauded, saying that either the Donetsk Republic should be independent, or part of Russia.5.39.217.768 l# S4 E2 o. J3 x
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On the other side of the road from the police station, men were giving orders to other groups of men whose faces were covered with ski masks. Some had helmets and some had body armour.5 y! T4 X7 ^; J
3 B- d5 ]* X( L7 k' |公仔箱論壇After watching the violence, a man called Pavel, who walked to talk at a safe distance from the mob, said he was a member of the Fatherland party of Arseniy Yatseniuk, the prime minister, and YuliaTymoshenko, a presidential candidate. He said he believed the seizure of thebuilding was designed to “provoke conflict” which would then lead to a Russian invasion.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb J* ^& H5 Q; O8 T
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。# P& i% n; p# R$ F$ k6 M
Ms Tymoshenko herself was reported as calling on foreign leaders for help. “I ask leaders of the world to provide direct military help to Ukrainian people who have been fighting for their freedom and dying for it. I ask the leaders to act.” Unless Ukraine starts to fight for its own survival, that help seems unlikely to come.5.39.217.768 Z; x4 U& \# @! m0 Q
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公仔箱論壇) W3 w. O* E, H3 H 作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-4-15 10:46 PM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-4-15 10:52 PM 編輯 8 h; G, O- Y0 ]tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb) \% @( ^; S9 K
Bennett Ramberg: The Chernobyl Factor in the Ukraine Crisis 3 s# z0 q! v$ P% [5 b$ b* a5.39.217.76$ h" o8 d: I$ n# [" v* Q$ d
! d5 W, J/ x; l/ t% o1 |% e7 M; ` 2 ]2 y7 y( c, v2 u/ _tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbLOS ANGELES –Twenty-eight years after its Chernobyl nuclear plant exploded, Ukraine confronts a nuclear specter of a different kind: the possibility that the country’s reactors could become military targets in the event of a Russian invasion. Speaking at the Nuclear Security Summit in The Hague in March, Andrii Deshchytsia, Ukraine’s acting foreign minister, cited the “potential threat to many nuclear facilities” should events deteriorate into open warfare. & t: P8 z( q Q" i公仔箱論壇 : a7 R' j+ f q3 K% ~Earlier in the month,Ihor Prokopchuk, Ukraine’s ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, circulated a letter to the organization’s board of governors warning that an invasion could bring a“threat of radiation contamination on the territory of Ukraine and the territory of neighboring states.” In Kyiv, Ukraine’s parliament responded by calling for international monitors to help protect the plants as the cash-strapped government attempts to boost its own efforts.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb6 g5 o6 M, x( J2 T5 Q# ] K
& Q' s8 a' W5 w5 b6 ATVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Are Ukraine’s concerns mere hyperbole – a “malicious slander,” as the Kremlin puts it – or should we take them seriously? For Ukraine’s government, the angst is real. Even Ukrainians born after 1986 understand what a Chernobyl-type disaster brought about by battle could look like. . @" B( o4 e5 h d7 g, ~7 l9 U - |6 E0 X% N: b$ Y* H% M( ITVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。History offers little guidance as to whether warring countries would avoid damaging nuclear sites.With the exception of the 1990’s Balkan conflict, wars have not been fought against or within countries with nuclear reactors. In the case of the Balkans,Serbian military jets overflew Slovenia’s Krško nuclear power plant in a threatening gesture early in the conflict, while radical Serbian nationalists called for attacks to release the radioactive contents.- H4 e! t7 F0 d$ \
+ z; Z; x* \# F: RSerbia itself later issued a plea to NATO not to bomb its large research reactor in Belgrade. Fortunately, the war ended with both reactors untouched.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。* t* q( r& T+ h1 W) P" G
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。9 i7 A& q) C: k8 `2 R+ t1 Q; Y6 S
While that case provides some assurance that military and political leaders will think twice about attacking nuclear reactors, the sheer scale of Ukraine’s nuclear enterprise calls for far greater global concern. Today, 15 aging plants provide 40% of Ukraine’s electricity. (Ukraine shut several reactors operating adjacent to the damaged Chernobyl reactor years ago.) Concentrated in four locations, Ukraine’s pressurized water reactors differ from the less stable Chernobyl RBMK design,yet still remain capable of releasing radioactive contents should safeguards fail.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb `3 D6 p" P: u1 A y
8 d4 i( ^! \2 _7 q) _3 R8 l8 B' I l; sTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Given that Russia, too,suffered serious consequences from the Chernobyl accident, it is to be hoped that the Kremlin would recoil at the idea of bombing the plants intentionally.But warfare is rife with accidents and human error, and such an event involving a nuclear plant could cause a meltdown./ g; M/ j4 R, L5 A7 i6 a- h& L+ H
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A loss of off-site power,for example, could be an issue of serious concern. Although nuclear plants are copious producers of electricity, they also require electrical power from other sources to operate. Without incoming energy, cooling pumps will cease functioning and the flow of water that carries heat away from the reactor core– required even when the reactor is in shutdown mode – will stop. 4 h v3 I9 M% m, R* g2 i5.39.217.76. E$ u: y$ \( @& y9 t$ {
To meet that risk,nuclear plants maintain large emergency diesel generators, which can operate for days – until their fuel runs out. The reactor meltdowns at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi power station in 2011 demonstrated what happens when primary and emergency operating power are cut. ' i8 U! E& z" [4 H, P: {TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 7 b Z/ p! _8 S! m2 m3 E公仔箱論壇Such vulnerabilities raise troubling questions in the event of a war. Fighting could disrupt off-site power plants or transmission lines servicing the reactor, and could also prevent diesel fuel from reaching the plant to replenish standby generators. Operators could abandon their posts should violence encroach. $ F$ E( V5 ^9 q/ T( }( r: Dtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb/ H0 t# Z4 R& j1 |
Moreover, combatants could invade nuclear plants and threaten sabotage to release radioactive elements to intimidate their opponents. Others might take refuge there,creating a dangerous standoff. A failure of military command and control or the fog of war could bring plants under bombardment. # W$ Z3 K2 {3 A4 h/ `) uTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 4 m4 B. i+ T M/ \) Y. {6 }) w, _Serious radiological contamination could result in each of these scenarios. And, though no one stands to gain from a radioactive release, if war breaks out, we must anticipate the unexpected.& P" t' x. x/ ~2 i5 m8 _3 |$ `
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In Ukraine, nuclear emissions could exceed both Chernobyl and Fukushima. Wartime conditions would prevent emergency crews from getting to an affected plant to contain radiological releases should reactor containments fail. And, with government services shut down in the midst of fighting, civilians attempting to escape radioactive contamination would not know what to do or where to go to protect themselves. 7 N% y `! B# t" `公仔箱論壇 8 J' P P8 ~0 r3 S- T3 R9 XSuch risks might be one reason for Russian President Vladimir Putin to think twice about ordering a military invasion of Ukraine. But, should war come, combatants must do all they can to keep conflict away from the nuclear sites and the off-site power sources feeding them. " \) }6 M( Z' N6 W0 FTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb# l- l) o+ u5 }9 f% f' h
Plant operators should stockpile diesel fuel to keep emergency generators operating. They should perform review and maintenance of generators to ensure that they are set to go.In the event of fighting near reactors, the West should prepare to ferry forces to secure the plants and keep the generators operating; and, in the event of a meltdown, the West should rally both governments to initiate a cease-fire to deal with the disaster. Given the stakes, failure to prepare for the worst is not an option. * m, M: V$ w- g- m% x5.39.217.769 W A4 l& a9 U! n, F: _/ Q
Bennett Ramberg, a policy analyst in the US State Department’s Bureau of Politico-Military Affairs under President George H.W. Bush, is the author of Destruction of Nuclear Energy Facilities in War and Nuclear Power Plants as Weapons for the Enemy.作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-4-16 09:37 AM
沈旭暉 : 普京之野望：「歐亞盟」能否單獨吸納東烏克蘭?5.39.217.76. L9 c; N/ F3 d/ \% c
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周一本欄談及一旦烏克蘭實行聯邦制，整個國家可能名存實亡，因為俄羅斯會通過種種經濟手段實質「消化」東烏克蘭，或讓其加入莫斯科主導的關稅聯盟，讓烏東愈來愈符合「實質獨立政治實體」的要求。有讀者認為這可能性不大，原因是聯邦制不能容許整個烏東被俄國吸去，而烏西卻被歐盟吸收。這是有趣的課題，值得進一步討論。 7 Y- g1 H$ N0 |5.39.217.76) l0 J! t- Z' J9 B% M
要探討俄國通過聯邦制「撕裂」烏國的可行性，大家先要重溫普京其中一個大動作的地緣政治計劃，即仿效歐盟成立「歐亞盟」（Eurasian Union）以爭一日之長短，重新整合大部分前蘇聯加盟共和國，以確立全球管治「一極之主」的地位。 . Q. E& P+ P# ]# X/ }# R% _5.39.217.76公仔箱論壇; Y. M( J6 s! Q2 p4 U4 [, k
其實蘇聯解體後，類似嘗試曾出現不少，獨聯體就是不太成功的例子。但目前「普京之野望」終於有了基本框架，那就是二○一○年成立的俄羅斯、白俄羅斯、哈薩克三國關稅聯盟，三國並已簽訂協議，要在二○一五年把聯盟擴大為「歐亞盟」。公仔箱論壇8 B* E! U) k2 x6 a
, \; y# ^* _/ v# t- S 在上述安排下，俄國的能源資金能利用哈薩克相對國際化的法例與稅務條例，大舉開設合資企業；白俄羅斯經濟幾乎全面融入俄國，而三國邊境貿易則大為增加，這對漫長的俄哈邊境開發尤其重要。當俄方日後廢除獨聯體國民免簽證安排、三國民眾卻毋須國際護照也能互訪，乃至他朝三國共用一種貨幣，仿歐盟的超國家框架就逐漸成型。 * z% b/ z$ \' E- Y, U5.39.217.76( q, V- ~. B+ b
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兩個辦法 分裂可期 a% V: E2 [5 [6 a; X/ j. S% n' W . ?+ b1 {% {1 ]9 u- ~" X7 @0 Gtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 目前在獨聯體內，除了已倒向西方的格魯吉亞，其他國家對加入「歐亞盟」都頗為正面。像吉爾吉斯、亞美尼亞等加入乃是指日可待，即使不怎麼情願的摩爾多瓦等國，也因憂慮境內親俄地區反彈，不得不認真考慮同步加入歐盟和「歐亞盟」這種「收取兩家茶禮」的方案。變天前的烏克蘭，其實也持類似態度，這正是亞努科維奇被推翻前對歐盟立場反覆的主因之一。 8 k P, j* j0 s( h5.39.217.76 ; p3 g5 S: d$ m6 x2 ~/ D, k( `tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 問題是，要是只有烏東願意加入「歐亞盟」，而即使烏克蘭行聯邦制，烏東也不是主權國家，技術上怎麼操作?辦法是有兩個：第一個是利用「關稅聯盟」的規程，把成員定義為世貿承認的「獨立關稅區」而非主權國家，像香港及澳門，都是非主權實體，而又能以獨立關稅區身份參加世貿的例子。然後，只要烏克蘭聯邦制容許內部成員成為獨立關稅區，透過權力下放（Devolution）就能促成其事。公仔箱論壇4 M6 R! q6 N' ]$ ~$ V" J5 y$ J
c& d' t q# d; `1 T/ b 第二個辦法，是讓烏克蘭聯邦先加入歐盟或「歐亞盟」（甚或同時加入），然後豁免部分地區的入盟義務。這也有先例可援，目前歐盟處理成員國的海外領土與海外屬地，就設定了「歐盟特別領域」類別，它們有些像母體完全行歐盟法規，有些只接受部分，有些則毫不接受（像格陵蘭、法羅群島等）。只要烏克蘭加入歐盟而豁免烏東，再加入「歐亞盟」而豁免烏西，則「兩烏」的實質分裂便能完成。 + e E0 P5 j) ^( R7 h, k5 _; R m! ~
當然，這只是理論，到了操作層面，自然複雜百倍。然而，烏克蘭聯邦能維持大一統的可能性實不容樂觀，這是理論上及實際上都清晰不過的。
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