1 S1 y2 a4 b V8 ^ ) E' A/ |# ~' w; W! P. |; |1 g% \tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 8 S& J7 I9 ?0 a" I% F. r根據數據數據判斷後市的專家，現在大都相信經過數年的「過度信貸」，「中國將面對新一輪違約風險」，這意味「明斯基循環」見頂，而「明斯基時刻」已在眼前。筆者深信這種看法﹔不過，大家不可忘記內地市場仍以「國企」即國家政策為主導，為了配合政策、為了不使當權者難堪，手握全國財經命脈的有關當局，肯定調整財金策略使難關輕渡。以資本主義市場的邏輯、想法，猜度內地市場去向，若不把國家有權決定市場（並非利伯維爾場）去從的權力一並考慮，便很易「測不准」！內地市場運作表面看與利伯維爾場無異，但推動內地市場的不是「無形之手」，而是中央在現階段仍強有力之手。任何以自由經濟理論套入內地市場的預測，都不易測得准的。 3 u4 X) B% u9 H+ C公仔箱論壇, W% B- y1 O% M2 X: J6 o
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5 ]5 f2 V& z1 g( z 作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-4-4 07:50 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-4-4 07:54 AM 編輯 TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。- w* f4 z; Q4 ~: l- n
7 E3 ]& r! k. \' k" l' d" DTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Joseph E. Stiglitz: Reforming China’s State-Market BalanceTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。- C" c& c5 ^5 G6 A4 B2 _# ~
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BEIJING – No country in recorded history has grown as fast – and moved as many people out of poverty – as China over the last thirty years. A hallmark of China’s success has been its leaders’ willingness to revise the country’s economic model when and as needed, despite opposition from powerful vested interests. And now, as China implements another series of fundamental reforms, such interests are already lining up to resist.Can the reformers triumph again?) ^- x& @ e+ e. X
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In answering that question, the crucial point to bear in mind is that, as in the past, the current round of reforms will restructure not only the economy, but also the vested interests that will shape future reforms (and even determine whether they are possible). And today, while high-profile initiatives – for example, the government’s widening anti-corruption campaign – receive much attention, the deeper issue that China faces concerns the appropriate roles of the state and the market.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5 m: y0 v5 q: G8 [7 G- C+ c
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When China began its reforms more than three decades ago, the direction was clear: the market needed to play a far greater role in resource allocation. And so it has, with the private sector far more important now than it was. Moreover, there is a broad consensus that the market needs to play what officials call a “decisive role” in many sectors where state-owned enterprises (SOEs) dominate. But what should its role be in other sectors, and in the economy more generally? 2 l% U8 z1 G/ i' }TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。% i$ P+ x5 d+ x8 } H( @
Many of China’s problems today stem from too much market and too little government. Or, to put it another way, while the government is clearly doing some things that it should not, it is also not doing some things that it should. 7 m" s" V6 f+ D7 E* k: H% ]( {公仔箱論壇 ' ?( s6 I: S, c0 | y5.39.217.76Worsening environmental pollution, for example, threatens living standards, while inequality of income and wealth now rivals that of the United States and corruption pervades public institutions and the private sector alike. All of this undermines trust within society and in government – a trend that is particularly obvious with respect to, say, food safety.5.39.217.76$ u& |) F% B" j, k
1 o% N6 g$ e9 }0 \+ wSuch problems could worsen as China restructures its economy away from export-led growth toward services and household consumption. Clearly, there is room for growth in private consumption; but embracing America’s profligate materialist life-style would be a disaster for China – and the planet. Air quality in China is already putting peoples’ lives at risk; global warming from even higher Chinese carbon emissions would threaten the entire world. 5 j F6 D0 O! r1 p+ V& @5.39.217.76 $ q( H# ^ L! ftvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThere is a better strategy. For starters,Chinese living standards could and would increase if more resources were allocated to redress large deficiencies in health care and education. Here,government should play a leading role, and does so in most market economies, for good reason. : d3 T s$ `- {: I1 F# T' [- uTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 " v! Z" k- K) ?* h/ b# l$ L5.39.217.76America’s privately-based health-care system is expensive, inefficient, and achieves far worse outcomes than those in European countries, which spend far less. A more market-based system is not the direction in which China should be going. In recent years, the government hasmade important strides in providing basic health care,especially in rural areas, and some have likened China’s approach to that of the United Kingdom, where private provision is layered atop a public base.Whether that model is better than, say, French-style government-dominated provision may be debated. But if one adopts the UK model, the level of the base makes all the difference; given the relatively small role of private health-care provision in the UK, the country has what is essentially a public system.公仔箱論壇 M9 t5 N2 T1 }7 S
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Likewise, though China has already made progress in moving away from manufacturing toward a service-based economy (the GDP share of services exceeded that of manufacturing for the first time in2013), there is still a long way to go. Already, many industries are suffering from overcapacity, and efficient and smooth restructuring will not be easy without government help.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。1 v; x! B+ r! x( B+ k0 K
, ?1 s% Y6 f8 U L2 r& q" P0 ZChina is restructuring in another way: rapid urbanization. Ensuring that cities are livable and environmentally sustainable will require strong government action to provide sufficient public transport, public schools, public hospitals, parks, and effective zoning, among other public goods.# G5 w0 e2 B9 l1 u- H
One major lesson that should have been learned from the post-2008 global economic crisis is that markets are not self-regulating. They are prone to asset and credit bubbles, which inevitably collapse – often when cross-border capital flows abruptly reverse direction –imposing massive social costs. ' \3 p: q0 a5 H! m' b: U% Q公仔箱論壇 # w) |! T$ e2 t# c2 g7 }! STVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。America’s infatuation with deregulation was the cause of the crisis. The issue is not just the pacing and sequencing of liberalization, as some suggest; the end result also matters. Liberalization of deposit rates led to America’s savings and loan crisis in the 1980’s.Liberalization of lending rates encouraged predatory behavior that exploited poor consumers. Bank deregulation led not to more growth, but simply to more risk. ( @( e. V1 r+ Y$ t! Ntvb now,tvbnow,bttvbChina, one hopes, will not take the route that America followed, with such disastrous consequences. The challenge for its leaders is to devise effective regulatory regimes that are appropriate for its stage of development.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。0 l" c; F' Q' u( r1 G
) H F+ H! A" t$ \/ PTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。That will require the government to raise more money. Local governments’ current reliance on land sales is a source of many of the economy’s distortions – and much of the corruption. Instead, the authorities should boost revenue by imposing environmental taxes (including a carbon tax), a more comprehensive progressive income tax (including capital gains), and a property tax. Moreover, the state should appropriate, through dividends, a larger share of SOEs’ value (some of which might be at the expense of these firms’ managers.)tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb+ r! Z) |6 `* R7 Z
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The question is whether China can maintain rapid growth (though somewhat slower than its recent breakneck pace), even as it reins in credit expansion (which could cause an abrupt reversal in asset prices), confronts weak global demand, restructures its economy, and fights corruption. In other countries, such daunting challenges have led to paralysis,not progress.公仔箱論壇- a6 ]8 p9 K) {' @8 Q" \2 `
! U' l$ U4 t# N$ J$ T* V1 BThe economics of success is clear: higher spending on urbanization, health care, and education, funded by increases in taxes, could simultaneously sustain growth, improve the environment, and reduce inequality. If China’s politics can manage the implementation of this agenda,China and the entire world will be better off. 2 H& O; O, D( q$ d# Ctvb now,tvbnow,bttvbTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。' V8 U6 Z9 m) Z' {8 K) k8 V7 g 作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-4-5 12:49 AM
丘亦生: 注的疑惑; A8 S9 J8 U0 c( y! F0 ?) ?( z
1 Q3 m, A& Y# L! S8 N2 N $ F* }6 h! v" |, |0 Z$ J9 K h . m9 J, b2 o5 l; P, y9 M" p公仔箱論壇中信集團千億注資交易，阿里買殻停不了，忽然間注資概念又成為一個可供炒作的理由。留意，我說的是注資概念，不是注資，兩者有分別，不要搞錯。5.39.217.76# c1 C. f' O$ X
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注資概念重新抬頭，背後有兩個因素，其一自然是新經濟股熱炒，阿里巴巴一邊瘋狂收購，一邊瘋狂買殻，一手貨，一手殻，自然惹來憧憬，所以市場不理三七廿一，篤信馬雲得殻有所用，會把值錢資產注入。 5 ?3 X3 _6 G( Z* x, j. d4 |公仔箱論壇TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。; g6 j6 `& C, e; r
另一個因素，叫國企改革，由中信集團扯頭纜，宣布把所有資產注入中信泰富（0267)，引發市場開始預期其他紅籌央企也會有注資一著，地方政府亦推波助瀾，大談要提高國有資產的上市率，意味要把大量資產推上市。可以預見，未來好一段時間，市場仍會圍著注資概念團團轉。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。4 a! j) R4 }$ O
$ ^( Z8 W$ X* I" d v公仔箱論壇本來，大股東注資時常有，是好是壞，要看作價及與現有業務是否配合，所以注資本身是否有得炒，很在乎作價。當然，注資交易很蝦人，大股東揀一些資產注入公司，是關連交易，當中存在嚴重的訊息不對稱，獲注資產的價值及潛力，只有大股東最清楚，有何誘因以低價注入，袋錢入小股東的口袋，我一直都想不明白。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb: m7 Z- W. I6 }7 u
. W) C7 r' O8 c% Z8 ^有說，這些資產過去在舊體制下營運，很多是低效及閒置的，一旦注入上市公司，便會引入現代管理及股東回報的概念，效率可望提升，故此增值的空間很大。不過，看看過去一些連番注資的股份表現，如上實（0363)、北控（0392)等多年的回報，渾不覺這些資產獲放入上市公司，能釋放多少戰鬥力。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( i. o' a# O6 e4 |7 M4 c/ T k% p
