本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-4-4 08:00 AM 編輯 ' B; F m4 G. ]( x0 n 7 x( ~4 N1 n( X! S5 U, K- d公仔箱論壇Sinan Ülgen: Erdoğan’s Pyrrhic Victory ) d o! W7 q5 ?! c5 W5.39.217.76 1 Q6 y: M; Z5 u4 m$ x公仔箱論壇. K, k7 I3 J& F
ISTANBUL – Turkey’s beleaguered Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party(AKP) have emerged victorious from this week’s local elections. Still, the AKP’s triumph is unlikely to ameliorate the country’s internal conflicts, much less revive its tarnished international standing. ; x+ m) F& s+ k7 z8 `$ e9 t 2 R( `* N. H. T7 P" n! MTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。The local elections were widely seen as a referendum on Erdoğan. The AKP received 44% of the national vote and now controls 49 of Turkey’s 81 metropolitan municipalities, including Istanbul and the capital, Ankara. The main opposition force, the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP), received 26% and won only 13 municipalities. & ]7 V& D8 \ ^$ W( l9 ]5.39.217.76公仔箱論壇: n8 M" q( t' t; G5 ]
The outcome can be seen as a vindication of Erdoğan’s strategy of using political polarization to consolidate his support and counter the challenge to his rule posed by followers of his former ally, the US-based Islamic preacher Fethullah Gülen.With the AKP’s initial support, the Gülen movement gradually infiltrated state institutions, particularly the judiciary and law enforcement, until the alliance eventually ended in an acrimonious split over the distribution of power within Turkey.0 k X2 w2 E7 V) v& _0 u
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The end result was a dirty war of graft allegations spread through social media, apparently by Gülen’s followers primarily. In response, the government has branded its opponents as enemies,and sought to promulgate new laws undermining the independence of the judiciary and restricting freedom of expression – including shutdowns of Twitter and YouTube. 1 a, e6 x, Y3 C+ V5 XTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。" H6 f1 Q0 h4 S8 h. ]
Erdoğan’s strategy sought to complement this exercise in damage limitation with a demonstration of its popular legitimacy.With the AKP’s overwhelming triumph in the local elections, Erdoğan can now justifiably claim that the Turkish electorate backs his approach,including his government’s suspension of the rule of law in order to obstruct corruption investigations that it views as a judicial coup attempted by Gülen’s followers.5.39.217.76" H/ x# R( k% ~! f5 }$ E6 o" d& ~
4 x( ?% U- J( t- E! R1 BTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Yet the AKP’s electoral victory heralds two specific dangers for the future of Turkey’s democracy. The first is the persistence of intense political polarization in the run-up to the presidential election in August and the parliamentary election in the first half of 2015.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb" ^4 {, `2 c- y
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In Turkey, polarization does not have the same political costs as it does elsewhere: Given a weak system of checks and balances, the Turkish executive still has ample room to manage the state’s affairs. And Erdoğan’s recent victory will embolden him to continue his polarizing politics as the basis of a presidential run.2 N2 i: P3 W7 r$ K
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The other danger is that of growing alienation from the West. With a renewed popular mandate, the government is likely to begin prosecuting Gülenists for alleged criminal behavior. But the creation of a wider siege mentality to boost domestic support also requires the invention of external co-conspirators – global financial markets, the international media, or even Turkey’s NATO allies. Such allegations have been apart of the government’s conspiratorial rhetoric since last summer’s protests,and the authorities dismissed the recent corruption accusations against Erdoğan in the same way. ( U: A u3 [5 ltvb now,tvbnow,bttvb# p! o2 ~- q" ~+ Z! B! C
Turkey’s international standing has thus suffered enormously from Erdoğan’s strategy of internal polarization. Long gone are the days when the prospect of accession to the European Union sustained a powerful dynamic of democratic reform. With hope of EU membership fading, reform momentum has been lost, and the European Commission is expected to issue a sharply critical progress report in October.公仔箱論壇, Q# o0 x9 G# `+ v/ e! ]
. l: b! {8 J8 T5 _The bilateral relationship with the United States is also under strain. President Barack Obama and Erdoğan rarely speak with one another anymore, whereas Obama once considered Erdoğan among his favorite world leaders.' i* X, k! [% k
: K6 \6 u" G" l! _& x- l公仔箱論壇Turkey has also lost several regional allies,particularly some of the Gulf monarchies, which are angry at the Erdoğan government’s unconditional support for the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.Turkey’s much-vaunted soft-power diplomacy and neighborhood policy now lie in tatters.5.39.217.763 q/ I: z1 i' O& U3 k7 B. ~
) K! E4 P/ g$ w6 y9 V8 W0 STVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Yet Turkey remains a large and important regional power. With his popularity reaffirmed, Erdoğan could still move in a different direction. Aware of the dangers of extreme polarization and reassured by the level of support obtained by the AKP in the local elections, Erdoğan may opt to lower the political temperature at home in the hope of repairing Turkey’s frayed relations abroad.9 x8 c1 e# B' x' C
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How Erdoğan behaves will not only determine the intensity of domestic political conflict; it will also greatly affect Turkey’s potential to regain the regional clout that it once enjoyed. If Erdoğan believes that a higher level of antagonism is necessary to retain power, he may remain oblivious to the harm done to Turkey’s international standing. $ L7 ]( {4 X( P/ p/ ^/ jTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, H) f; A( Q( V6 j" v) N L. F; G
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-4-13 08:42 AM 編輯 9 M% O( A+ D- Y {2 p1 k: m% N
9 R. s% {( q# y* I, ?) NTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Timur Kuran: Turkey’s Electoral Dictatorship 2 n9 a" }; B/ I* l* D$ S G公仔箱論壇 8 {/ y& S" [& Z9 p' r0 ptvb now,tvbnow,bttvb1 r3 U. I, _' J
DURHAM – In the run-up to Turkey’s municipal elections on March 30, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan declared that the popular vote would serve as a referendum on his scandal-plagued leadership.With the help of his Justice and Development Party (AKP), which centered its campaigning on him, Erdoğan was able to redefine the elections. His opponents blindly played along, hoping that the polls would force him out. But, of course, diminishing Erdoğan’s power could never be so simple.5.39.217.765 D7 g _ ?! o7 d3 Z; H- l9 _
1 I9 \7 |+ v1 Q$ \/ b0 f; mtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThe main source of opposition to Erdoğan’s leadership is his increasingly dictatorial style. He seems to have interpreted a 50% vote in 2011 as a mandate to refashion the country according to his own values. His authoritarian streak, already evident in his leadership of the AKP,is now on constant display in both his speeches and his government’s policies.公仔箱論壇8 m4 O3 h- ?( q0 O! V) r
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Last summer, the Erdoğan government’s brutal response to popular protests in Istanbul’s Gezi Park made Turkey look like an intolerant one-party state, as did the polarizing speeches that Erdoğan delivered in defense of the crackdown. His incessant demonization of secular Turks fueled fears that an Islamic morality police was in the works. ; f |1 Q4 }8 P$ u1 WTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。& W$ a" n2 [1 D0 K, b) l4 h+ R- ^
Jaws dropped as Erdoğan used scandals as a pretext to eliminate the remaining checks to his authority. In response to a corruption investigation involving his family members and close associates, here assigned hundreds of prosecutors and police officers, assumed control over the judiciary, and established a state agency to block any Internet site at will. When leaks of incriminating audiotapes continued, he banned Twitter and YouTube, putting Turkey in league with China and Iran with regard to freedom of expression.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb3 P- x1 X. s' p; n) {: h2 U
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Perhaps most shocking is Erdoğan’s assertion that these measures are compatible with democratic principles. According to his purely majoritarian and thoroughly illiberal understanding of democracy,opponents who speak up are stooges of sinister lobbies and allies of foreigners bent on keeping Turkey down. The rule of law is the choice of the chieftain;freedom of expression is the obligation to obey and conform; transparency is the state’s right to control and manipulate information; and human rights is an elastic concept that depends on political imperatives. ' D: n" l. q: x- D |5 y7 _tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 ]8 t$ I- Z" a- y
But, in last month’s election, the Turkish electorate seemed to disregard these affronts to democracy, giving the AKP 44% of all municipal posts. In Istanbul, home to nearly one-fifth of Turkey’s population, the incumbent AKP mayor, Kadir Topbaş, won by eight percentage points.5.39.217.769 E9 D) k. L6 {: L/ I
+ \6 }( P/ O$ TTo be sure, the vote counting produced thousands of credible reports of improprieties, including the alleged theft of ballots and, more important, power outages in dozens of closely contested provinces. Nevertheless, it is clear that the AKP won a resounding victory. 2 H7 X3 _1 U: m. W8 v0 N, `2 s2 `2 L+ Z+ P& `
According to exit polls, most AKP voters believe that the corruption charges leveled against Erdoğan are at least partly true. But they give him high marks for economic stability, widely shared prosperity, and respect for religious conservatives marginalized by generations of secular modernizers. Clearly, voters believe that his performance in these areas outweighs his missteps.5.39.217.76( ]5 s* [6 N; g- S5 k
8 J( x$ k2 d$ D( N+ ZVoters who stuck by Erdoğan knew that he would regard another electoral victory as a renewed mandate to govern autocratically and silence his critics even more definitively. They had heard him thunder, in speech after speech, that he would fight his enemies,rather than seek consensus, and disregard the international community’s protests. And that is exactly what he has been doing. 4 g& m% o" f" x5 c' D' P
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Indeed, rather than using his victory speech to promote reconciliation, as is customary after a bruising election battle,Erdoğan reiterated that he would crush his opponents. Once again, he accused opposition parties of treason. He vowed to take revenge on the movement led by the Pennsylvania-based cleric Fethullah Gülen, which had helped him to sideline the once-powerful military (using prosecutions that he now admits were based on largely fabricated evidence). He again blamed Gülen’s followers for the leaks that exposed AKP corruption, vowing to prosecute the whistleblowers, rather than those accused of taking massive bribes and laundering money.公仔箱論壇3 k: @+ l: c7 N* L' ?' v
; w! Z. a3 ~3 mTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Erdoğan did not stop there. He also declared that Turkey’s elections had taught the world a lesson in administering democracy. In fact, the main lesson is that democracy comes in many forms. In a purely majoritarian system, voters are free to elect a leader committed to extinguishing liberalism and pluralism. In other words, a purely majoritarian democracy may produce an electoral dictatorship. ' G8 a2 X* [, wTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。- y, P+ y3 p6 \, V, ~; M
If there is a silver lining in Erdoğan’s transformation of Turkey, in barely three years, from a model for liberalizing Arab countries to a dictatorship resembling those overthrown in Egypt and Tunisia., it is that many Turks have a clearer understanding that liberal democracy requires sustainable checks and balances. Those who participated in ending the military’s role as a political guardian now recognize that Turkey needs new institutions to protect basic freedoms and ensure limited government. ' J: p, X l0 `( f1 R, I 0 C5 b/ \ [9 }% ]0 A5.39.217.76Indeed, Turkey now offers a vivid example of the perils of unconstrained political power. In the world’s freest societies,it took generations of hard work to establish viable safeguards. More such struggles are needed in Turkey.8 q7 s( V( L0 T: m
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On April 1, Erdoğan’s energy minister blamed a cat for the election-night power outages – and he was not joking. Erdoğan’s post-election behavior augurs more trouble in elections to come. Those who voted for the AKP last month may yet learn that an elected dictator can use his powers to overstay his welcome. # T# Y. A" O/ i3 } . O- l, i. \3 K' b" f _公仔箱論壇6 V: |: ?5 u$ F4 P% K _
Timur Kuran is Professor of Economics and Political Science at Duke University and the author of The Long Divergence:How Islamic Law Held Back the Middle East. $ X; ~/ _- P3 l3 MTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb- I p2 H' N& m/ d* B
