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標題: [時事討論] 林行止: 俄國生吞肥肉美國灰頭土臉 [打印本頁]

作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-3-19 09:47 AM 標題: 林行止: 俄國生吞肥肉美國灰頭土臉

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-3-19 09:50 AM 編輯 tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb) T4 @% f8 m, I! r' E- n: ]- C: C) h
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林行止: 俄國生吞肥肉美國灰頭土臉$ B& K3 Q9 s$ s! D) U" s; F3 l

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一、去周日克里米亞公投結果顯示，投票率高達百分之八十三（佔該「國」約二百四十萬人口的百分之十四左右、事前公開表示反對公投的韃靼人可能全部「缺席」），其中百分之九十七強支持「脫烏入俄」；至此，克里米亞加入俄羅斯的「手續」正式啟動，昨天本報有關新聞報道列出的「克里米亞申請入俄程序」，非常清楚，依照此「程序」，普京總統已「批准所請」，以後的便是「例行公事」。

一如去周二（十一日）筆者在這裏指出，「俄國強橫得心應手」，俄國之於克里米亞，果然手到擒來；而美國總統奧巴馬的反應，有如被人當眾摑了一巴掌後仍保持「君子之風」，說：「你若再打我一拳，我便糾眾和你較量」，對於普京這個新沙皇，說了等於沒說。亦與筆者在上文的分析一樣，美國（及其各有盤算的盟友）對俄羅斯的「制裁」，只是禁止若干官員入境（不給予簽證）及凍結他們在西方（相信不包括瑞士）的財產。俄羅斯絕對不會因此有悔意或改變分裂烏克蘭的「陽謀」；至於「涉案」俄國高官，別說在這種關係國家前途大事之前，金錢從來不算一回事，何況「我們不是貪官，何來海外資產？」根本不把「西方制裁」放在心上的態度，溢於言表。在世人尤其是殷殷期待其主持公道的世人面前，對俄羅斯不發一槍便巧計藉民意吞併克里米亞而毫無反擊之力，美國真的「丟人現眼」……。一句話，美國國力走下坡，令她喪失在國際間指點江山左右大局的實力，冷戰時期美國（西方）外交政策主要設計者肯南（G.Kennan）早就指出，美國在二戰後成為「世界霸主」的根本原因，在當時美國經濟產值超逾世界之半，現在已不及百分之二十二，美國的外交影響力隨經濟實力的萎靡而鋒芒漸失，是理當如此的。
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二、烏克蘭於一九九一年蘇聯解體之際獨立，可是，獨立後一切乏善足陳，三月十三日《哈佛商業評論》發表題為「烏克蘭經濟何以頹疲不振」的短文，附白俄羅斯、波蘭、羅馬尼亞、俄羅斯與烏克蘭一九九一年與二○一三年人均GDP比較表，清楚展示烏克蘭是「大落後」。在一九九一年，她們的人均GDP在五千（美元．下同）至八千元之間；至二〇一三年，烏克蘭僅微增至七千三百九十八元，其餘各國都在一萬五千元以上。烏克蘭的積弱，主要是政府在親俄與親西方之間掙扎，政爭不絕，不務正業，政客各為「前程」中飽私囊，疏於政事，這二十多年來未能奠定「有效法治」，為其致命傷。在經濟方面，改革開放半湯不水，人民一方面興高采烈迎接自由市場的來臨，一方面卻抱怨市場決定的物價特別是能源價格太高。政府不得不和俄國妥協以換取低價俄油、氣供應，不但如此，還要實行能源津貼，以息民怨；天下沒有低於市價的商品，結果政府債台高築……。
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迄今為止，表面上，烏克蘭既無內戰之象，俄羅斯亦無入侵之意，但政局暗湧激湍，前景絕不明朗，令已與她簽署開發克里米亞岸外煤氣田合約的艾克森石油（其組成的跨國財團包括蜆殼、羅馬尼亞石油和烏克蘭的烏克蘭尼〔NadraUkrainy〕石油）因此叫停；這兩個本為烏克蘭所有的煤氣田，估計煤氣蘊藏量有二千億至二千五百億立方米（艾克森計劃每年生產五十億立方米煤氣）；失去此一能源收益，捉襟見肘的烏克蘭財政便只有更倚賴歐美的經援。
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據「烏克蘭天然資源委員會」主席魯高（G. Rudko）對《與熊共舞》（Dances with the Bears, Johnhelmer.net）透露，該國「待開發」的能源蘊藏，主要集中在「烏東」和在克里米亞海岸線二百哩範圍內的黑海（直至周日公投前為烏克蘭經濟特區〔exclusive Economic Zone of Ukraine〕），後者如今已間接落入俄羅斯之手；「烏東」正是近鄰俄羅斯垂涎欲得之地（藉口區內俄裔受基輔政府迫害，而製造混亂，甚至有可能出兵佔領；有此隱憂，烏克蘭已徵召四萬多後備軍人），看魯高提供的地圖，「烏東」的油、氣田密密麻麻，經濟前景應該不錯，惟開發能源有待大量投資；而克里米亞岸外的能源蘊藏，「佔烏克蘭未開發能源三分之一、已開發的五分之一」，看來俄羅斯肯定有所得着。

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路透社昨天消息，公投後克里米亞政府第一件要做的工作是把境內原屬烏克蘭政府所有的油、氣企業Chernomorneftegaz賣給世界最大規模的「俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司」（Gazprom），國營的「天然氣工業」，是烏克蘭和歐洲多國的主要煤氣供應商，那意味俄羅斯手中「經濟牌」的份量愈大，其與西方國家政治討價還價的力量亦相應大增。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。% W4 l6 o8 F9 K( S+ X) {

三、有論者認為俄羅斯吞併克里米亞，在經濟上得不償失（這是一場所謂pyrrhic victory），而克里米亞經濟依賴基輔的「補貼」甚深，從今以後，莫斯科要承擔此「額外負擔」；不過，這種評估在克里米亞把烏克蘭國營能源企業據為己有之前，於今形勢大變；加上近岸煤氣田投產有期，克里米亞的經濟狀況相信不會太差。對於近百年來受盡俄人折磨信奉回教的韃靼人，三、四十年代史太林把他們流放至西伯利亞及其他加盟共和國，九十年代蘇聯解體後他們陸續重歸故土，哪知現在又落入俄人掌握，他們在克里米亞也許無力造反，惟在北高加索（莫斯科稱該區為「化外之地」〔Internal abroad〕）的同胞，尤其那些加入回教激進組織的，肯定會成為莫斯科的心腹大患。然而，對於氣焰甚盛有翻生沙皇之概的普京來說，那也許只是癬疥之疾！

不少論者認為因為焦岩氣油大增及墨西哥灣發現重大氣油田，美國應考慮對歐洲各國供應能源，如此她們可免受俄國控制，在外交上便有「硬起來」的本錢。此說頭頭是道，卻是書生之見，實際上不可行。因為美國的能源公司皆屬私營，近年產量增加有意出口，但由於缺乏供液體煤氣出口的碼頭，因此遲遲未能成事；即使克服這種「技術問題」（美國第一個液體煤氣出口碼頭位於SabinePass，明年底啟用），美國天然氣價格較高，甚難引起歐洲買家興趣；從另一角度看，美國天然氣「援歐」，極可能扯高國內價格，美國民選政客又怎能同意！

無論如何，能源是不可能成為「新冷戰」工具的—「舊冷戰」所以東西兩大陣營對峙數十年仍「打」不起來，皆因核彈所有權是國家而非企業，前者可以不問成本，集中全國資源增加彈頭，威懾對手；後者必須斤斤計較效益，要以之作為冷戰工具，不可行。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。; G# Q: a+ Z/ a( r. z( H
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歐洲目前的政治情勢頗為不妙，俄羅斯一方扼住對歐的煤氣供應，一方在邊境陳兵演習，令不能再完全依賴氣力已衰的「老大哥」美國的歐洲，進退失據，看來只有眼睜睜看着俄羅斯吞併克里米亞，而仍不得不設法與她「和平共處」；如果形勢朝此方向發展，除了美國灰頭土臉，對相關國家包括中國的經濟，都有利無害。俄國和歐洲諸國固不待言，中歐貿易額近年突飛猛進，歐盟諸國平安無事，等於其與中國的外貿如常進行；若生意外，中歐貿易難免大挫，這對經濟正在「下行」的中國，斷非好消息。

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作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-3-19 10:14 AM

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-3-19 10:22 AM 編輯 tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb( x! y5 c, v' j* o7 c0 ^
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Bobo Lo: Crimea’s Sudeten Crisis公仔箱論壇+ G/ t5 d) u2 o- o" @
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LONDON – With Crimea voting for secession,the upheaval in Ukraine is fueling an increasingly charged atmosphere between Russia and the tandem of the United States and the European Union. Are American and European leaders being cast in a Russian remake of the 1938 Sudeten crisis?
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Immediately after Nazi Germany’s annexation of Austria, Adolf Hitler turned his attention to the ethnic Germans living in Czechoslovakia’s Sudetenland. First, he demanded the Sudetenland’s cession to Germany, gaining relatively easy agreement from British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and his French counterpart Édouard Daladier.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb. y, c  Q" L0 L

Hitler then immediately raised his demands to include German military occupation of the area. Deeming the issue “a quarrel in a faraway country between people of whom we know nothing,” and thus not worth defying Hitler over, Chamberlain and Daladier accepted the occupation by signing the Munich Agreement. In doing so, they strengthened Germany considerably and emboldened Hitler – with catastrophic consequences.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。# A5 `& C5 z* v0 _; N- N: D$ s; x! G
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To be sure, Russian President Vladimir Putin is not Hitler, Russia is not Nazi Germany (or the Soviet Union, for that matter), and the world does not face the same apocalyptic scenario that unfolded in 1939. Nonetheless, there are some important parallels between the Sudeten and Crimean crises.+ t+ W, ?6 Q' t4 K7 [4 i

The most obvious is the presence of an expatriate majority in the occupied area. Russians comprise nearly 60% of Crimea’s two million inhabitants, and many are more closely connected to their “mother” country than to Ukraine. Likewise,the three million Sudeten Germans felt much greater loyalty to Germany than to Czechoslovakia, and an overwhelming majority embraced their incorporation into the Third Reich.4 Q5 j! ^) J9 y+ k3 a9 j
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Indeed, Putin’s pretext for occupation and annexation – to protect the local population – is the same as Hitler’s. Until recently, Putin showed little interest in Crimean affairs, beyond renewing the lease on the Black Sea Fleet’s base in Sevastopol. But, since the Ukrainian revolution, the local Russian population’s alleged vulnerability to “fascists”has become an emblematic issue – and an excuse for Russian military intervention. Hitler employed a similar pretext in demanding the Sudetenland’s transfer from Czechoslovakia.

Putin has something else in common with Hitler: the view that the country he is occupying is somehow “unnatural.”Although Putin has not formally challenged Ukraine’s independence, he has never hidden his view that it is not a “real country,” referring to it as part of the“Russian world.” Similarly, for Hitler, Czechoslovakia was an unnatural conglomeration of disparate nations and regions.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb/ f" ?( R& d9 M8 F

Hitler sought to destroy Czechoslovakia. Six months after hiving off the Sudetenland, he abrogated the Munich Agreement by occupying all of Bohemia and Moravia and turning the Czech lands into a German protectorate, while installing a puppet regime in a nominally independent Slovakia. If Putin has similar designs, he would begin with Crimea’s annexation– now seemingly a done deal – followed by a direct military presence in eastern Ukraine (where Russian troops are massing at the border), and possibly some kind of partition in the longer term.

Of course, like Hitler, Putin is not concerned only – or even especially – with the occupied area. Instead, he is seeking to project power farther afield. Putin has long used national resurgence – in particular, the idea of Russia as an independent global actor with its own “world” – to legitimize his rule. According to this vision,Ukraine must be strategically aligned with Russia, and its sovereignty must be limited.

For his part, Hitler considered an independent, democratic Czechoslovakia to be a security threat, while eyeing its considerable industrial assets. But the Sudetenland’s annexation was, first and foremost, aimed at helping to restore Germany’s “great power” status.

There are also striking similarities between Western leaders’ responses to the two crises – namely, their reluctance to take decisive action. Indeed, they seem unwilling to back up their warnings of“costs” and “consequences” with meaningful measures like asset freezes, trade sanctions, and travel restrictions – reinforcing Putin’s belief that they will continue to choose their relationships with Russia over protecting Ukraine’s territorial integrity. This timidity recalls British and French policy in 1938,when the Sudetenland – and later Czechoslovakia – was sacrificed for a short-lived “peace in our time.”& [# j4 f' _! o9 T5 n! {

What lessons can be drawn from the comparison between the Crimean and Sudeten crises? First, any dialogue with Putin will be fruitless, unless Western leaders take a decisive approach that is shaped by concrete objectives, not bogus “strategic partnerships.” Conversely,name-calling – like US President Barack Obama’s accusation that Russia is “on the wrong side of history” – is pointless.' ]4 X! d# e8 V$ u7 ?# B) k
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The West should stop reacting to Putin with“shock and awe” – shock that he can act with such seeming impunity, and awe at his perceived tactical brilliance. Europe and the US have vastly greater influence and resources than Russia, with its atrophied political system and exhausted economic model. What they lack is the willingness to accept the economic and political costs of defending the values that they claim to uphold.
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Finally, Western leaders must recognize that appeasement cannot ensure peace and stability in Europe – not even under the fig leaf of “engagement.” When dealing with a leader whose credo is defined by the notion that “the weak get beaten,” Western governments must demonstrate their resolve, without sacrificing flexibility. Only on this basis can the crisis in Ukraine be addressed without fundamentally compromising transatlantic security.
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Bobo Lo is a specialist in Russian foreign policy at Chatham House
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Hitler and Chamberlain: The Munich Crisis 1938, x9 B4 b5 F- J" X
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作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-3-19 10:38 AM

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-3-19 10:40 AM 編輯
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The Economist explains
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What the original Crimean war was all about
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ON MARCH 16th Crimeans voted in a deeply flawed referendum to secede from Ukraine and join Russia. The crisis on the peninsula has pitted Russia against America and the EU, in the worst diplomatic spat in Europe since the cold war. But it is not the first time that Crimea, on the edge of the Black Sea, has been contested by Russia and the West. On March28th 1854—160 years ago this month—Britain, the superpower of the day,declared war on Russia. The resulting conflict was mainly fought in Crimea as British forces and their allies laid siege to the main Russian naval base in the Black Sea at Sebastopol. What was the original Crimean war all about?tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb/ |8 K5 l- L! }

It began against a backdrop of Russian expansionism as the Ottoman Empire declined. The spark was a religious dispute over who should be the guardian of the Ottoman Empire’s Christian minority,especially in the Holy Land: Orthodox Russia or Catholic France. Napoleon III sent his best ship, Charlemagne, to the Black Sea to defend France’s claim. That, together with aggressive diplomatic and financial inducements, sharpened the minds of Ottoman leaders, who declared in favour of France.Russia responded by invading the Ottoman-controlled territories of Moldavia and Wallachia (roughly, parts of modern day Moldova and Romania) and sinking the Ottoman fleet at the Battle of Sinope in 1853. That inflamed public opinion in Britain and France, which feared that Russian domination in the Black Sea region would threaten their trade routes to India via Egypt and the eastern Mediterranean. After some diplomatic dithering, which misled Russia into believing that it could continue its aggression against the Ottomans without consequences, Britain and France declared war in March 1854. The Kingdom of Sardinia-Piedmont (which later became Italy) joined in the war against Russia the next year.

Although Britain and its allies eventually won the war in 1856, the conflict was disastrously planned and poorly executed.Invasion fleets from Britain and France set off ill-prepared; military planning was so bad that their commanders had not yet decided which part of the Black Sea they were heading for. When they landed in Crimea, military disasters followed, including the famous charge of the light brigade, in which vulnerable British cavalry attacked Russian artillery head-on during the Battle of Balaclava. Support services such as care for the wounded were disorganised. Four times as many British soldiers died of disease during the conflict as in combat. In the end, it took a year-long siege to take the naval base at Sebastopol.
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Historians blame the mistakes that led to the war on a lack of strategic planning, in diplomatic or military terms, on the part of Britain and France. Similar accusations have been levied at the cautious steps taken so far by America and the EU. But although some commentators have attempted to draw comparisons between that conflict and the current crisis in the Crimea, this time it does not yet look as if things are going the same way. Modern America and 19th-century Britain, though the dominant superpowers of their days, are worlds apart in terms of diplomatic strategy. But few, even in the 1850s, would have thought Russia and the West would still be contesting the same small peninsula of land a century and a half later. If history does not repeat itself, it has a strange way of rhyming.
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作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-3-19 11:01 PM

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-3-19 11:02 PM 編輯

烏克蘭示威少女：請支持我們，廣傳我們的故事公仔箱論壇2 n# A3 u4 Y6 [! m

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We want to be free from a dictatorship. We want to be free from the politicians who work only for themselves, who are ready to shoot, to beat, to injure people, just for saving their money, just for saving their houses, just to saving their power.
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We are civilized people, but our government are barbarians. That's not a soviet union. We want our courts not to be corrupted. We want to be free.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。6 p; {: U- z/ J6 F- N8 s, Y3 v% s

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過去兩日，烏克蘭首都基輔獨立廣場的示威者遭到當局鎮壓，衝突造成至少26人死亡，已持續3個月的烏克蘭反政府示威再次登上國際新聞頭條。與此同時，一段拍攝於示威現場的影片在網絡廣泛流傳，片中一名基輔女示威者向世人解釋烏克蘭人為何不畏當權者的暴行，堅持示威，並呼籲國際社會聲援。
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片段上載於本月10日，製作者Ben Moses自去年12月起在基輔拍攝紀錄片，拍下這位女示威者的心聲並上載至YouTube，點擊率現逾200萬。
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旅居波蘭的台灣作家林蔚昀，將少女的說辭翻譯成中文，並邀請網民轉發。 ; c" a, d# a+ m9 e# \7 T5 @1 Z: d" _

我是烏克蘭人5.39.217.76% y/ u7 m  i. _2 [

我是烏克蘭人，在基輔出生長大。現在我在獨立廣場上，在我城市的中心。我想讓你們知道，為什麼來自全國的好幾千人，都走上了街頭。只有一個理由：我們想要脫離獨裁。我們想要脫離那些只為自己利益著想的政治人物，那些人開槍、毆打、傷害人民，只為了保住他們的錢，他們的房子，他們的權力。在這裡抗爭的人們有尊嚴、有勇氣，我希望他們有一份正常的生活。7 {9 j# J3 R" {- A3 r! t) b
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我們是文明人，但是我們的政府是野蠻的。這不是蘇聯。我們不想要貪腐的政府。我們想要自由。我知道，明天我們的電話和網路通訊可能會被切斷，屆時我們將會是孤獨的。當黑夜降臨時，警察會一個一個地把我們擊倒。5.39.217.76) l/ ^6 _& r: R8 V

這就是為什麼現在我在這裡請求你們的幫助：自由在我們心中，在我們腦中。現在我請求你們幫助我們在我們的國家建造這份自由。你們透過這個方式就可以幫助我們：告訴你的朋友這裡發生的事，把這段影片散播出去。請這麼做。和你的親戚、朋友、政府討論這件事，讓他們知道：你支持我們。公仔箱論壇$ ], d: \7 D/ J1 }7 j2 W/ n2 F5 ~) S

下為影片逐字記錄：

I am a Ukrainian, the native of Kiev. And now I am on Maidan, on the central part of my city. I want you to know why thousands of people all over my country are on the streets. There is only one reason: We want to be free from a dictatorship. We want to be free from the politicians who work only for themselves, who are ready to shoot, to beat, to injure people, just for saving their money, just for saving their houses, just to saving their power.
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4 v7 y1 q4 I$ ~' V5.39.217.76I want these people who are here, who have dignity, who are brave, I want them to lead a normal life. We are civilized people, but our government are barbarians. That's not a soviet union. We want our courts not to be corrupted. We want to be free.0 w% U/ L" N6 [- T0 K$ |8 q

I know that maybe tomorrow we'll have no phone, no internet connection, and we will be alone here. And maybe police men will murder us, one after another, when it will be dark here.
            TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。0 h! ^; j% [, x7 k& A; v
That's why I ask you now to help us. We have this freedom inside our hearts. We have this freedom in our minds. And now I ask you to build this freedom in our country. TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。- O2 r+ ]8 j! x+ w/ l
            TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。- H, ^0 G+ W( O8 s" ^( \
You can help us only by telling this story to your friends, only by sharing this video. Please share, share it. Speak to your friends, speak to your family, speak to your government, and show that you support us.
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作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-3-19 11:18 PM

克里米亞問題令美俄或陷「冷戰第二階段」

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《852郵報》報道，假若俄羅斯與烏克蘭就克里米亞的爭持惡化，或將會引發新一場的東西冷戰思維。事實上，隨著克里米亞公投獨立，加入俄羅斯聯邦，隨即觸動美歐的神經。這場冷戰結束後最大的政治危機，勢將再次引發西方資本主義陣營思考其戰略重心。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb& D/ F' Y- K2 ]$ p9 F
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俄羅斯與克里米亞簽署加入俄羅斯聯邦條約後，全國約有60萬人集會，而在莫斯科紅場當晚亦有12萬民眾集會慶祝。這次克里米亞的獨立，除了讓烏克蘭鄰近地區響起警號外，亦令國際社會紛紛譴責，認為俄羅斯總統普京正蠢蠢欲動，希望藉著收復烏克蘭及克里米亞這些前蘇聯地區，能夠重返昔日的光輝。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb' y( U3 J5 W6 g7 q6 O$ z
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俄羅斯籌碼令歐美顧忌

不過，美國總統奧巴馬隨即致電普京，表明公投違反烏克蘭憲法；歐盟亦指公投不合法，並對俄羅斯實施制裁。但俄羅斯重申，公投合法，亦符合民眾意願。面對雙方的分歧擴大，有分析認為制裁未夠深入，加上俄羅斯對歐美的依賴日漸減少，是以俄羅斯有足夠籌碼以一敵眾。據指俄羅斯早前表明，一旦受到制裁，會拋售手上的美元，亦不會償還美國銀行的貸款，勢將令美元大幅貶值，重挫美國經濟。
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由是之故，歐美現階段暫未敢對俄方輕舉妄動，只以一般制裁手段應對，而俄方亦怕其擴張會令區內局勢緊張，最終反而影響自己。兩者都是螳螂捕蟬，黃雀在後，將會是一場國際均勢的角力。英國外交大臣夏偉林亦承認，歐洲正處於與俄羅斯爆發「新冷戰」的邊緣，危機可能持續數年，而俄羅斯將要付出沉重代價。而事實是否如此？2 m7 f% u1 V' c1 v; v

是否陷「新冷戰」人言人殊5 H5 d2 @) n! s! ?
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浸會大學政治及國際關係學系助理教授陳家洛向本報表示，所謂的「新冷戰」是個很模糊的說法，目前並沒有學者定義及釐清這個觀點。他認為如果要說新冷戰，那麼就必須要回歸冷戰思維。冷戰是一種「你死我亡」的狀態，這種情況下將出現軍備競賽，而且當時美蘇兩大陣營雙方的政治、經濟獨立，是以互相可以不聞不問。不過環觀現今克里米亞的局勢，礙於地緣政治的關係，始終沒有一個國家能夠完全獨立自主；俄羅斯與歐盟的關係亦非常親密。在這種情況下，俄羅斯的經濟仍然依賴歐洲共同體，而歐洲亦需要俄羅斯供應的天然氣。在這種互利共生的情況下，以往的冷戰於此並不成立，而現在可以見到的，就只有凍結資產、限制入境等制裁措施，因此新冷戰的論調亦因欠缺定義，無從立足。他補充，烏克蘭的出路是歐盟招攬烏克蘭加入，否則國內佔多數的親歐份子，在俄羅斯的干預下，將「十分可憐」。, ?7 n* z$ B4 s2 ]: Y

另外，香港大學社會科學系講師丘梓勤亦就「新冷戰」的問題進行分析。他指出，不應該以新冷戰來解讀現在克里米亞的局勢，而應該說它是「冷戰第二階段」。他認為冷戰一直沒有結束，只是中途隨著蘇聯解體暫告一段落，然而在今次烏克蘭與克里米亞事件中，又重新將東西對壘陣營復甦起來。丘梓勤坦言，西方資本主義陣營長期佔據歐洲，並一直向東蠶食，是以俄羅斯是在一個弱勢狀態。普京這次藉收復克里米亞，向外界展示「光復蘇聯」的雄心，不過在形勢上可說是處於下風，因為對俄羅斯來說，最好是能夠令烏克蘭回歸。可是普京這次打不響其如意算盤，修復克里米亞，是「跌落地拿返渣沙」的退而求其次；此舉極度危險，除了受到國際社會制裁外，他可能面對的代價是，激起不少前蘇聯加盟國的反俄勢力，令俄羅斯更加孤立。
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。6 |: ]8 l8 t* [5 c; |
（英國《每日電訊報》圖片）

作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-3-20 11:42 PM

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-3-20 11:45 PM 編輯 tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb& B  ]/ d! C/ [/ W) `2 w

烏克蘭擬從克里米亞  撤走軍人TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。1 U6 o  \; ?5 a6 w- [9 }' a: ^9 H
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。- i  A  Y1 v: V8 w) B) L, q& g

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烏克蘭基輔的安全和防務負責人帕魯比說，烏克蘭正在制定計劃從克里米亞將烏克蘭的士兵及其家屬撤走。帕魯比說他們希望「盡快有效」地將他們從克里米亞半島撤回烏克蘭大陸。

早前親俄的武裝力量佔據了克里米亞的兩個海軍基地，包括烏克蘭海軍的總部。5.39.217.76- ^$ G' o# i; _* b
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帕魯比在新聞發佈會上說明了基輔對克里米亞形勢發展的態度。他說，「我們制定了一個計劃，這樣我們不僅能夠撤出我們在克里米亞的軍人，而且還能撤出他們的家屬，使他們能夠盡快有效地到達烏克蘭大陸」。他還說正在制定有關措施，開始要求到烏克蘭旅行的俄羅斯人持有簽證。5.39.217.76) g$ C" h! z- d
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基輔也在尋求聯合國的支持，「宣佈克里米亞為非軍事區」。這將意味俄國從克里米亞撤離其部隊、烏克蘭將其軍隊撤回烏克蘭大陸以及「使那些不願留在被佔領土的平民從那裏撤出」。. g# M* p* [1 o

帕魯比又指，烏克蘭將脫離由莫斯科主導的獨聯體，還凖備同美國和英國舉行軍事演習。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb" E3 ?+ T: Z* }  ~9 t( n4 x- s" u
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另外，烏克蘭高山滑雪女子運動員Bohdana Matsotska ，為譴責烏克蘭當局「違法」鎮壓，早前宣布退出冬奧，聲援基輔獨立廣場上的示威者。
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今天，她在Facebook上貼出自己拿起槍枝的照片，向俄羅斯總統普京發出警告，「我懂得如何使用輕彈氣槍，我可以學習如何使用真正的武器，如果有需要，我會為自己國家的自由而戰，普京，不要用你那雙髒手觸碰烏克蘭！！！」) X' V. D/ z& B
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5.39.217.763 L6 b% j- {) V! S% C2 p

TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。0 J F, @ t: y" [4 v8 u2 v
克里米亞「美女」檢察總長波隆斯基：Beauty saves the world！
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事涉俄羅斯與烏克蘭領土主權爭議，以至隨時觸發美俄關係關張的克里米亞事件，令全球網民至今印象最為深刻的，卻或依然是令不少人眼前一亮的美女檢察
總長波隆斯基（Natalia Poklonskaya）。大陸官媒「環球網」今日就發表其專訪，還專文報道了她若干「私密」。今年33歲的她除坦言還未結婚外，當被問及不少日本網民已為她著迷時，她雖說未有時間上網了解，卻拋出了「美麗拯救世界！」這金句，可見她對自己外貌都相當有自信。

作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-3-21 03:26 AM

The Economist : Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the return of history

ON MARCH 18th Russia annexed Crimea, marking the first time the country expanded its borders since the cold war. Yet it has form. The 20th century was a period of ever-changing national boundaries,affiliations and spheres of influence. At the start of the second world war,the then Soviet Union’s territory extended into modern-day Belarus and Ukraine,and included Crimea. By war’s end, the entirety of both countries became a part of the USSR, as well as the Baltic states. During the cold war, the iron curtain descended over Eastern Europe—and stayed there until the Soviet Union’s dissolution in 1991. The map of Europe remained unchanged in terms of Russian territory until this month. A quarter-century after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the hungry Russian bear is back. The following five maps show the troubled history of Russia and its neighbours.$ V# x- l: {6 t

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1938: In a period of balance-of-power politics, the Soviet Union’s territory does not extend far westward into Europe.

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1945: Following the second world war, the Soviet Union extended its control into modern day Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus and four Baltic states. 6 [' ~5 d) |2 ^* A

1949-89: During the cold war, the USSR’s sphere of influence extended over Eastern Europe, via the Warsaw Pact countries and a divided Germany.

1991: After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 led to the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia’s territory was smaller than it was before the second world war.

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2014: Russia annexes the Ukrainian region of Crimea, after Russian troops invade and the area votes to secede from Ukraine. The vote and annexation is condemned internationally.

作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-3-21 11:19 PM

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-3-21 11:21 PM 編輯 + f7 @+ U$ b$ S8 _% i2 @% z

Adam Michnik: The Russian Godfather

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WARSAW – Russian President Vladimir Putin is behaving like a Mafia boss. In invading, occupying, and finally annexing Crimea, he pointed Russia’s guns at Ukraine and said: your territorial sovereignty or your life. So far, extortion has worked – and Putin knows it.
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Indeed, in his speech announcing the annexation of Crimea, Putin spoke his mind: his regime fears no punishment and will do whatever it pleases. Crimea is just the first step toward realizing his dream of revived Russian greatness.5.39.217.761 N7 n$ Y. j- t7 H, K+ B+ F

His address in the Kremlin was a tissue of lies and manipulation, though a subtle analysis would be a waste of time. The simple fact is that the president of one of the world’s most powerful countries has embarked on a path of confrontation with the entire international community. His speech smacked of the fevered, paranoid world of Fyodor Dostoyevsky’s Demons, conjuring as it did a delusional alternative universe – a place that does not exist and has never existed.

What does Kosovo, where the Albanians suffered persecution and ethnic cleansing, have in common with the situation in Crimea, whose people have never been oppressed by Ukrainians? What is the point in displaying open contempt for Ukraine’s government, parliament, and people?Why label Ukrainian authorities “fascist and anti-Semitic”? Crimean Tatars pay no heed to the fairy tales about fascists ruling Ukraine; they can still remember the brutal and murderous mass deportations of their parents and grandparents, ordered by Stalin and carried out by the NKVD.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb3 L) o/ m$ L( D+ V2 f$ T8 V7 ?: |
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In Putin’s mind, the whole world has discriminated against Russia for the last three centuries. Russia’s bloody despots – Catherine II, Nicholas I, or Stalin – apparently never discriminated against anyone.1 k" B  C& O" ]+ I. B

Putin also warns that “you and we – the Russians and the Ukrainians – could lose Crimea completely.” Yet he fails to specify who – perhaps Poles and Lithuanians again? – are setting their sights on Sevastopol.
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Russia could not, according to Putin, leave the people of Crimea “alone in their predicament.” These words prompt a sad smile; Leonid Brezhnev used precisely the same phrase in August 1968 to justify the Red Army’s intervention in Czechoslovakia to help beleaguered Communist hardliners there crush the Prague Spring reform movement.

“We want Ukraine to be a strong, sovereign, and independent country,” says Putin.Stalin said the same thing about Poland in 1945. Brave Russian democrats who have not yet been silenced have already remarked on the similarity between Putin’s appeal to ethnic solidarity in annexing Crimea and Hitler’s stance during the Anschluss and the Sudeten crisis in 1938.( {" F( v" e4 K, M$ k9 o7 S
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This is the real end of history – the history of dreams about a world governed by democratic values and the market economy.Unless the democratic world understands that now is not the time for faith in diplomatic compromise, and that it must respond strongly enough to stop Putin’s imperial designs, events could follow a logic that is too dreadful to contemplate.It takes force to stop a thug, not sharp words or cosmetic sanctions.
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I commend and take pride in Poland’s prudent and determined policy and the attitude of its public, which do us great credit.But we must recognize that the best quarter-century in the last 400 years of Polish history is about to end before our very eyes. A time of tectonic shifts has begun. We must appreciate what we have managed to achieve – and learn to protect it.

Mafia bosses often meet an unhappy fate, and I do not think that Putin will fare much better in the end. Unfortunately, many people are likely to be hurt in the meantime, not least those who now support him.2 }3 h; j+ V8 X

Adam Michnik was one of the leaders of Solidarity and the founding editor of Gazeta Wyborcza.
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歡迎光臨公仔箱論壇 (http://5.39.217.76/)