' z1 r" h2 M3 F# Q( oTO SOME critics, Ukraine’s agonies are Barack Obama’s fault. His lead-from-behind foreign policy has so dismayed America’s allies and emboldened its foes that Russia knew it could send troops prowling round Crimea with impunity.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。8 F0 [( U! \! R; v# X% ?
; K0 U" J9 L* Y9 zThe crisis is the “ultimate result of a feckless foreign policy where nobody believes in America’s strength any more,”says Senator John McCain of Arizona, the dean of the Republican Party’s(much-diminished) national-security wing. To another hawk, Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a “weak and indecisive” Mr Obama “invites”aggression. Even some Democrats have broken ranks. One, Senator Chris Coons of Delaware, has blamed trouble in Ukraine, in part, on Mr Obama’s “perceived weakness” in Syria, which has left not just Russia but “vital allies” doubting America’s will to act. 7 M" S: T# k9 h2 v2 b2 C7 P* K# L, m- z
Some frustration is sincere. Mr Obama’s professorial, chin-stroking approach to geopolitics can grate at the best of times—pondering his own foreign policy in a recent interview with Bloomberg View, he called it “restrained, and I think thoughtful”. These are not the best of times. In particular, even friendly governments call Mr Obama’s Syria policy a mess, notably since he failed to enforce his vow that the use of chemical weapons would be a “red line” triggering military strikes, instead grabbing at a Russian offer to help dismantle Syrian stocks of poison gas.公仔箱論壇/ Q/ D( ~9 W1 M
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Yet there is a self-serving undercurrent to much “Who Lost Ukraine?” commentary. It is not just that Republicans enjoy painting Mr Obama as a new Jimmy Carter. Those pondering a White House run in2016, such as Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, see a chance to attack Hillary Clinton, Mr Obama’s former secretary of state and a putative Democratic presidential contender, for her role in an ill-fated “reset” of relations with Russia.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。$ X5 r1 j, O7 N
. s$ ?0 Z( w% e6 d5 y/ p公仔箱論壇The sheer range of the charges being levelled against Mr Obama is unhelpful. Rigour demands that they be weighed one by one.First take the charge that Mr Obama’s “weakness” emboldens President Vladimir Putin of Russia. True, Mr Obama is sceptical about the use of large-scale military force to resolve geopolitical tangles (though he uses drones and special forces liberally). But none of his critics has called for American troops or warplanes to rush to Ukraine’s aid. “There’s no viable military action that can be taken, I accept that,” sighs Mr McCain. % i4 ~8 k! N+ P& ^" H& VTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 1 p0 b9 x5 y& Ctvb now,tvbnow,bttvbPerhaps critics mean that Mr Putin might have stayed his hand if he had harboured just a doubt about Mr Obama’s willingness to use force. But Mr Putin invaded another neighbour, Georgia, in 2008, when America’s president was George W. Bush, whose martial zeal few doubted. Mr Bush airlifted Georgian troops home from Iraq and sent American military transport planes to Georgia’s capital, Tbilisi, to make it harder to overrun. His vice-president, Dick Cheney, vowed that “Russian aggression must not go unanswered.” But it did go unanswered, largely. Russia took effective control of a fifth of Georgia after a peace deal brokered by European leaders. Russians control that territory to this day.' j8 h; B) ?) v8 l2 U2 t0 p
. d1 s4 v/ Y$ w; R, X5 D/ [TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Now Washington is alive with politicians suggesting fierce policies that might cow Mr Putin this time round. Many, such as visa bans and asset freezes for Russian oligarchs, have little support in Europe. Others are not in America’s power: Mr Cruz talks of suspending Russia from the UN Security Council. Some are unwise. Several senators want Georgia and Ukraine on a fast-track to NATO membership, though neither is ready (and many European allies would not defend them against Russia, undermining the main article of that alliance). 5 E. \! u4 c. V6 T2 G6 p* Y* j5 }0 w+ k5 i {- G$ \* x" x# ^( F$ J* W- T公仔箱論壇Those convinced that a weak Mr Obama has emboldened foes are concentrating on the wrong bit of his foreign policy.Managing a thug like Mr Putin, who would distrust any American president, was never going to be easy. More thoughtful critiques consider how Mr Obama relates to allies. s8 z) C. k, B
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Mr Putin is not deterred by even the toughest Western rhetoric when he sees a chance to advance national interests, says Fiona Hill of the Brookings Institution, a think-tank, who led government intelligence analysis of Russia during the Georgian crisis. The only way now to slow his march into Ukraine, she suggests, is for America to work in lockstep with Europe, preventing Mr Putin from exploiting Western divisions./ M0 x7 |0 K I# I4 v2 q- k
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Kurt Volker, a former American ambassador to NATO, wishes that America had worked with Europe years ago to make Ukraine’s oligarch-infested energy sector more transparent. Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee, the senior Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee,wants co-ordination with Europe on economic aid for Ukraine. Senator Marco Rubio,a Florida Republican, argues for opening up American gas exports to the region,to weaken Russia’s grip as an energy supplier.. U1 r' n' ~& ^4 {9 m/ m
- |5 H& z6 m. E$ `While Putin puts the boot in, the West is disputing# j5 G& j4 c: G- h/ N6 d/ W# _4 E
, D3 a" h2 [1 s# Utvb now,tvbnow,bttvbAlas, Team Obama is surprisingly bad at alliances. In Ukraine, America largely outsourced policy to Europe for many months, before deciding too late that it was going wrong. Forget criticism in Washington about how a stronger, Reaganesque president might intimidate foes. A larger problem is the White House’s resentful attitude towards America’s friends. Officials grumble about being stuck with the job of keeping the peace in Asia, Europe and the Middle East while free-riding allies enjoy the fruits of global trade. Time for others to step up and do their share of maintaining an open international order, they say. Officials talk of the “bandwidth” chewed up by high-maintenance bits of the world, when Mr Obama would prefer to focus on fast-growing Asia, or—as public opinion loudly demands—on nation-building back home.5.39.217.76! Y$ m# Q/ M1 X8 c1 m3 h7 z7 a
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Well, tough. Great powers cannot always choose where to expend time and energy. Mr Obama did not cause Russia’s assault on Ukraine: that has roots which long predate him. But now he must lead efforts to contain Mr Putin’s mischief.8 ]; r: y0 C" s: x3 y
3 T8 \& f2 d0 i1 v( v6 U+ V 作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-3-8 11:55 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-3-8 12:00 PM 編輯 / b' [) J" ~4 m G9 m3 I5.39.217.769 |+ D+ W2 g- Q" c H r
Michael Meyer: Ukraine’s Unintended Consequences % t( B2 f/ Z- I5.39.217.76公仔箱論壇, ^4 l2 P3 e) O: x& C
( k9 j$ w) Z7 [: bTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。NAIROBI – Now that Russia has occupied the Crimea Peninsula, the blame game has begun. US President Barack Obama has allowed yet another “red line” to be crossed, critics say. And everywhere there is loose talk of a “new Cold War” and the “price” to be paid by the Russian aggressors. But, in this fraught environment, we would do well to recall two historical precedents.公仔箱論壇- `$ x5 t X& a' G
! m" \7 e5 h2 `# y( Y5 {5.39.217.76Twenty-five years ago, this month, Hungarian Prime Minister Miklos Nemeth traveled to Moscow to seek Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev’s blessing for a radical experiment. Nemeth, barely 40, had been appointed by the ruling Hungarian Socialist Workers’ Party only four months earlier. He was seen as a naïve young technocrat, charged with reforming the ailing Hungarian economy. He was expected to fail. Then he and his“reforms” could be blamed for the country’s troubles. % O1 S( u. Y5 R/ S7 U8 k' _4 w- _TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, b0 D; v" ~9 r$ f5 H! @' f1 I& S- L
Nemeth, however, was anything but naïve. And he had a secret aim: to take Hungary out of the Soviet bloc and steer it to the West. His weapon of choice was democracy. Within a few months, he planned to hold Hungary’s first free election. What would happen, I asked him at the time,if the communists lost? “We would step down,” Nemeth replied, “as in any other civilized democracy.”8 o8 R, u d( _& k0 |
, O7 ^# _) }- N5.39.217.76In communist Eastern Europe, that was apostasy. And Gorbachev, hearing of the young Hungarian’s plans, was outraged.Communist leadership in Hungary was not something for the mere people to decide, he spluttered. A full, free, and fair election? It would set a terrible example for the rest of the Soviet bloc. # G" P. A; D1 h: }" }, S公仔箱論壇 3 w) K, [* i- v& ]TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Nemeth saw his reforms failing and an uncertain future for himself. Then Gorbachev abruptly ended his lecture. But of course, he said, “this is for you to decide.” . X) D$ w7 z; y7 o* G% N5.39.217.76 9 E1 H* R) Q$ i( B( _tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbAlmost not believing his good fortune, Nemeth asked the million-dollar question. If Hungary were to hold a genuinely democratic election, and if the communists lost, would Moscow intervene, as in1956? “Nyet,” said Gorbachev, and then added a caveat. “At least, not as long as I sit in this chair.” $ p$ u) X6 h' Ltvb now,tvbnow,bttvb公仔箱論壇3 F+ O# y4 e. P4 \0 G
This nyet was of fundamental importance. With it, Nemeth was able to return to Budapest and proceed with the election, marking a turning point in the tumultuous events that would end with the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989 and the breakup of the Soviet empire.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb+ p' {4 \8 ]& h0 [3 Z8 M; U$ \
Fast forward to the present, and contrast Nemeth’s deft diplomacy with what we see in Kyiv. Instead of recognizing (and dealing with) Russia’s inevitably outsize role in the region, Ukraine’s revolutionary government defied it. Instead of speaking reasonably of finding solutions to the country’s problems that would accommodate the needs and interests of all of its citizens, the new government abolished Russian as eastern Ukraine’s official second language and intimated that it would soon eliminate its traditional autonomy as well.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb% C0 F' c( D( n6 B* \! ^) Z2 j
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It should surprise no one that Russia has intervened. If Nemeth had handled matters as badly in 1989, the map of Europe might look very different today. $ c, ?! b" n( a9 N# Vtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb' S- {* p e2 q. x( C3 x
Consider another historical echo. President Jimmy Carter spent New Year’s Eve, 1979, phoning Democratic Party leaders in rural Iowa. Carter was facing re-election, and he enjoyed a comfortable leadover rival Ronald Reagan. But, just days earlier, the Soviet Union had invaded Afghanistan. Neither the United States nor anyone else was in a position to stop it. What to do? ' q; ]3 {# J) v5 f- B* l0 e: ]* LTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 , Y( U* O, i) I Q. MSo Carter worked the phones, trying to persuade Iowa’s farmers to endorse an embargo on grain exports to the Soviet Union. It would deliver a financial body blow to the Midwest’s economy, Carter feared, and jeopardize his prospects for a second term. Along the way, an embargo might well accomplish nothing except to deepen Cold War animosities.5.39.217.764 c0 w2 W5 o3 ~/ \, g# f% n
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And that is exactly what happened. Carter lost the 1980 election, and the Soviet Union barely felt the embargo. Instead,the US found another way to penalize Soviet aggression: arming the Afghan mujahedeen. A decade later, the Red Army had withdrawn its forces, the US packed up and went home, and Al Qaeda set down roots.公仔箱論壇2 i) l8 t* \* x7 G$ N
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Today, we are at another historical turning point. Once again, Western leaders face a challenge for which there is no good response. Once again, they feel they must do something, anything – even if they have no sense of the ultimate consequences. 2 I' t2 m& v1 `8 u& cTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5.39.217.76( {, H! m/ J( b& o3 \
Rather than react blindly, as Carter did, it would be better to follow Nemeth’s lead and think strategically about aims and means. In the face of passion and pressure, cool heads must prevail and force the firebrands in Kyiv to think carefully about Ukraine’s future and negotiate solutions for all of its citizens.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。6 E/ ~, p1 O/ {& H) t
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Now is the moment for dispassion. We know from past experience that the law of unintended consequences can be harsh.公仔箱論壇' T/ M6 R# k w, q4 K" v
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb; i% d' ]4 D+ v w+ L' D. x3 d Michael Meyer, a former communications director for UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, is Dean of the Graduate School of Media and Communications at Aga Khan University in Nairobi.0 n8 o4 n8 s- |5 O* p2 v
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