* V0 j& B' n" E9 h0 I, m8 d5.39.217.76要是烏克蘭24個州、兩個直轄市都要公投歸入「東烏」或「西烏」,州以下的單位有不同意見,也可以再搞公投。要是「西烏」成立民兵,佔領半壁江山,再在控制範圍內一次過表決獨立,那就是曠日持久的全方位內戰。當歐盟和俄羅斯都已成為既得利益者,也不存在有份量的其他調解人,屆時局勢不一定像敍利亞慘烈,卻恐怕連南北塞浦路斯分治的相對和平也做不到。 9 n' y# e' a" Q7 r6 s/ q ]& N( u( c" c5 b由於俄羅斯極不願意承認「西烏」獨立,「東烏」卻是原來的中央政府,擁有聯合國席位,「西烏」的國際空間會十分有限,就像科索沃那樣。目前持有科索沃護照的人,根本不能進入俄羅斯,去年就有科索沃球員因此不能進入莫斯科踢歐聯。「西烏」畢竟和「東烏」、俄羅斯交往密切,面積和人口亦不能和科索沃相提並論,要是這樣一個中型國家長期處於非正常狀態,對人民心理和國家發展都極為負面。 ( q( p7 i( Z* q4 \- u4 j0 J ( t! `( z1 A( ~' H9 O- R3 p何況「西烏」獨立了,會否變成一個天主教國家?這又是一個危機。「西烏」一直是「烏克蘭希臘天主教會」大本營,這次宣布分治的利沃夫,原來就是其大主教教座所在地。這教會聽命於梵蒂岡的羅馬教廷,和烏克蘭最多人信奉的東正教形成對立,卻在海外烏克蘭僑民當中得到較多支持。問題是東正教在「西烏」依然有一定影響力,一旦「西烏」獨立,宗教問題可能更為突出,連內部和諧和共識也難達成。 ( \& s9 s0 b3 I; {0 a O' z; L4 V; B- P2 ?/ z; U
當「西烏」立國,沒有了俄羅斯支援,自然更希望加入歐盟。但要達到入盟的客觀準則,不是一天就辦到的事。歐盟並非要真心援助西烏克蘭,只是以此牽制俄羅斯,隨時以「俄羅斯問題」為由拖延「西烏」入盟。烏克蘭經濟重鎮都在較富裕的東部,「西烏」則以農業為主,一旦「西烏」真的入了歐盟,歐盟的「共同農業政策」會否「微調」補貼,也值得關注。可以想像的是,俄羅斯可能對「西烏」貨物實行保護政策,更可能不再以優惠價提供能源給「西烏」,都會令「西烏」經濟百上加斤。不是說和歐盟整合不可能帶來出路,只是在得到新經濟定位前,「西烏」獨立初年的經濟水平,可能比現在更差,其他社會民生問題也不易解決。 % _" [ O r* H/ C/ S5.39.217.76 6 `/ b) A. x/ F; }7 ] * J- J/ V' |$ N7 D+ {公仔箱論壇先建聯邦 才是王道TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( ]' t' m' s( a4 {: _5 Y( w) G
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更令人憂慮的,是目前無論是烏克蘭中央政府、還是反對派陣營,都已用到「恐怖分子」、「反恐」一類字眼加諸對方,這是極不健康的徵兆。假如兩地民族主義被挑起,都以此鞏固政權,伴隨而來的自然是找內奸一類行動,再繼而出現大規模人口轉移,這在東歐歷史曾反覆出現。這樣的折騰,需要更長時間讓社會回復常態,治安亦很可能變壞。 G6 C3 z5 X) c. [2 Y" l# A1 A: ATVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。0 [3 f6 A6 I& F7 y# P# H, k7 d+ K
說了那麼多,是否「西烏」一定獨立無望?不是的。是否應爭取獨立,是「西烏」人自己才能決定的問題,但真的決定爭取,在目前國際格局,只會有上述後果。符合國際遊戲規則的獨立方式,應是先掩飾自己的獨立訴求,找一個面目模糊的中性候選人參選總統,贏了大選,然後以中央身份推動聯邦制,讓「東烏」、「西烏」分別享有克里米亞那樣的自治共和國地位,鞏固了邊界,確立了政治、經濟模式,再不斷修憲,最終和平分手。過程當然依然困難,但起碼是王道。( C# x& n6 `3 `) i! L
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb2 V# @3 W( n/ `+ X, D 作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-2-23 10:28 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-2-23 10:35 AM 編輯 4 ?" E$ j* F$ C2 `/ |. \ " M1 I7 n' A0 v% J5.39.217.76Carl Bildt: Europe’s Crisis in Ukraine公仔箱論壇1 J& o8 H. p" y$ q J" P2 i
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STOCKHOLM – How Ukraine’s profound crisis will end is impossible to predict. We in the European Union and the United States are doing what we can to secure a peaceful transition to a more stable democracy, and the implementation, at long last, of urgently needed reforms. And the agreement now concluded between President Viktor Yanukovich and the opposition should create a new possibility for this.公仔箱論壇+ N$ S; f) p. D
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If the agreement is not honored, Ukraine could well continue its descent into chaos and conflict, which would be in no one’s interest. That is why Ukraine’s crisis is a European crisis. And, though we cannot know how the crisis will end, we should be very clear about how it started.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( }6 U; D' k: W+ s* \( L9 ?2 f# Q6 n
+ f4 X" u6 Z2 n+ j/ B5 x4 vTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 / ~3 i3 |( k# L9 j7 B$ h# OFor years, Ukraine sought a closer relationship with the EU. Its leaders warmly endorsed the promise of enhanced ties under the EU’s Eastern Partnership, and pushed for an EU Association Agreement, together with a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. When those talks,which began under the previous Ukrainian government, were concluded, the agreement was endorsed by all four presidents and all 14 prime ministers to hold office since Ukraine achieved independence in 1991.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb1 M* A) A$ i# m" w0 I* h: ?' ^5 }6 i
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But, as the EU and Ukraine were addressing remaining issues ahead of the November 2013 Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius, where Ukraine was to sign its Association Agreement, something suddenly changed. From August onward, Russian policymakers embraced the openly declared aim of knocking Ukraine off the course that it had chosen. A political campaign against the agreement was launched, and the Kremlin mixed targeted sanctions with threats of harsher measures against the already-weak Ukrainian economy. : ?, ~( d8 ]4 o- A. x公仔箱論壇 $ J! d* q+ w$ q B& N2 m) atvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 7 ~( _4 t1 z* Q: y0 A/ z0 ~2 v, R% S公仔箱論壇Russian leaders publicly stated that if Ukraine signed a free-trade agreement with the EU, it would lose its free-trade deal with Russia, and high tariffs would be imposed on all goods and services. Severe economic pressure, it was made clear, would become open economic warfare. " O' G, l% [8 u* g4 w公仔箱論壇% A. M7 A8 x5 m$ t: j
Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich gave way. In explaining to EU leaders that he was not ready to sign the Association Agreement, he was very clear that Russian pressure was responsible for his decision.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。& n; F% W3 ?9 `3 T
' v- k3 y* q! b/ f- P' e& ^. u8 ytvb now,tvbnow,bttvb ) X- k9 t5 k$ _' r: L5 f, ?公仔箱論壇This set in motion the chain of events that has now resulted in carnage and death in the streets of Kyiv. For many Ukrainians,Europe was the symbol of hope of a better life; suddenly, they felt betrayed by a political elite that they had long perceived as being incorrigibly corrupt.So, to be clear, it was the Kremlin’s pressure, and the Yanukovich administration’s vacillation, that produced the current crisis.0 z* ~$ h% ]1 |! D4 ^) V( o
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. B X7 v5 y* d4 c/ {5 g公仔箱論壇Had Yanukovich decided to stand up to Russian pressure,there is no doubt that Ukraine would have faced difficulties. But, with an EU Association Agreement and the possibility of solid financial aid and reform assistance from the International Monetary Fund, the Russian measures would not have been sustainable.3 g$ r- Q' v* p+ P
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+ t5 I3 e! F& ^" V5 t5 eOf course, the reforms asked of Ukraine would have been difficult, but no more difficult than what had been asked of other ex-communist countries that saw their future in and with Europe. There would have been light at the end of the tunnel, and, as Ukraine embraced the reform process, it would have been seen as a determined and democratic European country.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb/ p9 X$ O2 v& e' r2 Y- I
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7 D* Z; r2 F2 |0 X2 c' |Instead, Yanukovich opted for a short-term strategy narrowly focused on his own political survival – a strategy that the protesters increasingly came to view as a game of deceit and betrayal. As the regime started to use violence to repress its opponents, violent opposition groups gained credibility.公仔箱論壇' Q8 L! `6 S# \
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7 p5 _# A# K( S) d! c f5 _5.39.217.76Free trade with both Russia and the EU would obviously havebeen good for Ukraine’s economy, thus providing a boost to the Russian economy as well, notwithstanding the oft-used but fundamentally bogus argument that EU goods would flow into Russia via Ukraine. (Has anyone heard Americans complaining that the free-trade agreement between Mexico and the EU is undermining the US economy?) . j/ c' k7 y9 T5 g/ X" U U , G7 z! y; k9 B/ h8 ?% B' u5 yTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 ( y3 u, N% U2 Y5 R# W* Q; C& u5 s5.39.217.76Russia is intent on building a new strategic bastion in the form of its proposed Eurasia Union, and it seems determined to force Ukraine to join. While publicly grumbling about supposed EU pressure on Ukraine, the reality is that Russia brutally extorted the country into abandoning its EU course. That is the source of this crisis; the facts speak for themselves.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。) x1 l+ I% `! L6 {/ o
6 w1 L ]! N* o: {# e- w- z ( Z. Z( g) H1 l9 v/ b+ }4 V5 }tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbEven under the best of circumstances, the road back for Ukraine will be difficult. Russian pressure and destabilization, and the crisis to which they have led, have created new fissures in Ukraine’s society and have caused further damage to its fragile economy. And that damage could, one day, spill over into Russia. The Kremlin should have an interest in a stable and reforming neighbor that, like other countries, is also seeking a close relationship with the EU.公仔箱論壇2 O2 p, c+ M& N3 V! w9 m
# G& u7 Z+ P, m6 _" i' Q' N公仔箱論壇TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。) i; u7 a2 c2 K* g: v7 c6 } Carl Bildt has been Sweden’s foreign minister since 2006, and was Prime Minister from 1991 to 1994, when he negotiated Sweden’s EU accession. A renowned international diplomat, he served as EU Special Envoy to the Former Yugoslavia, High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, UN Special Envoy to the Balkans, and Co-Chairman of the Dayton Peace Conference.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb* W$ e0 n3 y% V: B1 `
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。7 F( `! k' V; p/ r/ z# W
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& ?+ Y+ Y$ O1 e; f1 LYevhen Bystrytsky: Can Ukraine Be Saved?" {% u9 r6 F" q Q
4 p: k0 y3 y8 _& J, B5 H3 X! R5.39.217.76 - e+ }8 w9 t% l @2 ]TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。KYIV – Acrid black smoke hangs in the air and stings the eye in much of central Kyiv, where state repression is dampening hope of resolving Ukraine’s political crisis. With a truce between the government and the opposition shattered only hours after it came into effect, and with dozens of people reported killed in recent days, any hope for an end to the country’s deepening civil disorder appears to be fading fast.6 _6 m. i8 o, D1 h5 k0 B
$ j! ~! U, J) W# f) \, j " V( v9 l5 Y* }Yes, a tentative settlement has been reached, following mediation by European Union foreign ministers, with a promise of early elections. But such settlements have been proposed before, and no agreement is likely to gain broad acceptance unless it includes the immediate departure of President Viktor Yanukovich. O9 ?9 w5 g5 n+ jTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。$ ?! y$ k1 o" b( O' Q
7 [. K$ A& z5 @ E5 c+ D" t5.39.217.76In fact, Yanukovich’s government seems prepared to use any and all measures to remain in power. Taking a page from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s playbook, tax police are prosecuting civil-society organizations in the hope of cowing them into silence and irrelevance. Yet,despite such intimidation, Ukrainians from all walks of life have been protesting for three months in cities across the country. " f+ M: E! N2 J. J |8 X7 Vtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb ! l r. }3 S! u, K1 N" zTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。2 o4 Z- S3 o [1 x/ U
At its heart, this is a struggle between Ukraine’s European-oriented West and its Russian-fixated East for the country’s geopolitical soul. Will Ukraine move closer to the European Union or instead join the Russian-dominated Eurasian Union?tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb& Y, _5 {4 D4 I; ? U
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Despite the mounting violence, Ukraine is not on the vergeof civil war – at least not yet. But make no mistake: the risk of the country –and its military – splintering is very real, as Yanukovich’s decision to sackVolodymyr Zamana, the head of the armed forces, attests. The conflict needs tobe stopped now.' Y- Z4 d' |/ w; x, R1 d
To achieve that, Ukraine needs a transitional government ofexperts and a new constitution that returns the country to the system thatprevailed until a decade ago, with power divided between Parliament and thepresident. Moreover, a presidential election should be held within threemonths, with a new parliament voted in soon after.1 s2 g* J/ R# _( k5 [% t
- G& H E. c4 T! D7 H; M - Q6 z, I7 V' _But Yanukovich has shown that he does not want a negotiated solution. Until the recent surge in violence, it seemed that dialogue might defuse tensions. An amnesty for detained protesters was offered, and protesters agreed to withdraw from government buildings. But when demonstrators fulfilled their promise and evacuated occupied buildings, Yanukovich resorted to force in an effort to end the protests altogether. . u5 k$ x$ B( y& Y5 ]' j d& @ 9 R' G; ?/ s* s2 i# i% n1 j! @: KTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb, D6 W: I6 k( I& d: P$ F6 y
Indeed, the police began firing into crowds of demonstrators, and have reportedly killed at least 70 and injured hundreds more. Hospitals are overflowing, and many people are avoiding state clinics, because they are afraid of being detained – or worse. The activist Yuri Verbitsky, a mathematical physicist, was abducted by five men in late January from a Kyiv hospital, where he had gone to seek treatment after being injured by a stun grenade at a demonstration. Verbitsky’s battered body was found the next day in a forest outside the city. 6 ?( R( H5 L% ^8 _tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb + D G- W/ [2 z, S- E1 gTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Any prospect for resolving the crisis ultimately depends on regaining citizens’ trust in their police and security forces, which are now viewed by many as an occupying force.To reestablish the public’s confidence, there can be no impunity for those who fired bullets or gave the orders to fire. Officials’ excessive use of force,and the government’s reliance on semi-criminal thugs (known as titushki)to attack protesters, must be thoroughly investigated.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。" B# F- ^( p7 d
, }: v6 Q0 a" [/ c, e7 Z" \公仔箱論壇 ! _0 y; x3 s/ x+ u' \tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbBut, even as the ongoing violence makes such an investigation all the more urgent, Ukraine’s prosecutor and courts refuse to act. That is why it is crucial that a high-level international mission –comprising civil-society leaders, the Council of Europe, and the European Union– launch a comprehensive inquiry and pressure Ukraine’s government to cooperate.5.39.217.76. }* J5 G1 ^ v! A" G, Z
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; G3 _! u6 J6 _! g3 pThe EU and the United States have introduced diplomatic sanctions since the latest round of murderous violence began. This should include a travel ban not only on all officials who ordered, oversaw, or implemented the crackdown, but also on Yanukovich’s political enablers: the oligarchs who are now sitting on the sidelines while spiriting large sums of money out of the country. " w! c2 h7 v8 g2 ?6 l; h2 f5.39.217.76 * E3 k4 a, P( s) p, @- I( E5.39.217.76 1 p" H Q5 k" v' D/ C/ @5 h5.39.217.76Sanctions should be lifted only when a credible investigation into the last three months of violence is permitted and a technocratic government is in place (at which point the EU and its member states should offer concrete economic assistance). Prime Minister Mykola Azarovresigned last month, ostensibly to make way for such a solution. But Yanukovich has refused to take the next step, or to commit to constitutional reforms,which largely explains the protesters’ growing frustration – and their determination to press ahead in the face of brutal repression.: \+ s$ ^/ c6 ?9 `0 B3 U
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6 f/ e' X9 S3 V, Q8 z* jtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThere is a perception in the West that all of Ukraine’s political forces are weak, divided, and corrupt. And there are growing concerns,often fueled by sensationalist media coverage, that far-right forces are gaining the upper hand within the opposition camp. But, though such forces do exist, the vast majority of demonstrators on the Maidans across the country are ordinary people angry about abuse of power, state violence, official impunity,and corruption.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( l3 a0 v1 i6 P2 O3 [. W
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。# e( K* g& z8 P/ H" Z! q9 n
; ^( l: w1 R9 Q+ P e" {TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。For the venal and vicious elites who have taken control of Ukraine, the real threat is these demonstrators’ perseverance, not the provocations of a radical fringe. Indeed, while I refuse to believe that Ukraine’s march to civil war is unstoppable, I also know that our citizens will never be silenced again. ; H( }, \# ^8 t" ^2 h- p9 x; a* P1 A1 C3 c- C3 {* u( w G$ [ Yevhen Bystrytsky is Executive Director of the International Renaissance Foundation - C, d* F/ q, \$ wtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5.39.217.76; f$ D9 z; l$ P6 ^- | 作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-2-23 11:11 AM