沈旭暉: 假如西烏克蘭宣布獨立 + f: t I- V2 a# x8 v) @1 d公仔箱論壇TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。* V. X! L1 m9 w# H
# W+ @1 A3 L3 O6 [對於烏克蘭，香港人想起的多是足球或美女，但日前於首都基輔獨立廣場的示威及血腥鎮壓，卻被網民瘋傳；有人看到利沃夫「獨立」及烏國人民「勇武抗爭」而感到振奮；有人因為烏國最終還是逃不了大國霸權的悲劇感到神傷；有的卻可能只因為反對派拍的短片而加入廣傳行列，曾被喻為歐洲糧倉的烏克蘭，是否再次成為俄羅斯、歐盟及美國政治角力的「食物」，還是示威背後有着其本土精神？歐盟最近終提出制裁烏國，總統也願意提前大選，局勢是否就此穩定下來？本周專題帶大家來到這個地帶政治的核心國家，思考鎮壓以外的其他啟示。7 h+ @9 p, ]( A/ S' I1 Y# u% b
' g) \) d7 }. a! i5.39.217.76西烏克蘭的反對派據點利沃夫宣布脫離中央，會否是烏克蘭全面分裂的先聲？十年前，筆者曾寫了一篇關於烏克蘭的評論《撕裂烏克蘭、延續反恐戰》，不是說有玄學家的先見之明，只是烏克蘭東西分裂的苗頭出現已久，其相關背景，先不重複。現在不妨問一個問題：假如西烏克蘭真的宣布獨立建國，又會怎樣？) H' ~1 ^0 c+ h$ {* Y
) b3 B1 F9 g8 {# n8 H* a0 o- x$ p
首先，國界的爭議，就幾乎不可能解決。烏克蘭不是聯邦制國家，除了克里米亞自治共和國擁有清晰的自治範疇、權限，「東烏」、「西烏」都只是約定俗成叫法。雖然西烏克蘭不少領土是在斯大林時代兼併所得，然而若要具體劃界，哪裏是親俄文化圈的「東部」，哪裏是親西方文化圈的「西部」，並沒有完全客觀的中線劃分。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。7 w5 v0 `3 [5 R, G+ L
9 N% k. y2 I u' _
" G! J7 }, H/ d$ b, d 邊界難分 易惹糾紛TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。2 Z: H! @, e3 l' l) Q
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。' M: L( w3 O/ H3 ^8 i# h
要是烏克蘭24個州、兩個直轄市都要公投歸入「東烏」或「西烏」，州以下的單位有不同意見，也可以再搞公投。要是「西烏」成立民兵，佔領半壁江山，再在控制範圍內一次過表決獨立，那就是曠日持久的全方位內戰。當歐盟和俄羅斯都已成為既得利益者，也不存在有份量的其他調解人，屆時局勢不一定像敍利亞慘烈，卻恐怕連南北塞浦路斯分治的相對和平也做不到。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5 F* W* M) i) G$ F8 Y4 Q' e
, r ^" X& V' C0 {. [TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。由於俄羅斯極不願意承認「西烏」獨立，「東烏」卻是原來的中央政府，擁有聯合國席位，「西烏」的國際空間會十分有限，就像科索沃那樣。目前持有科索沃護照的人，根本不能進入俄羅斯，去年就有科索沃球員因此不能進入莫斯科踢歐聯。「西烏」畢竟和「東烏」、俄羅斯交往密切，面積和人口亦不能和科索沃相提並論，要是這樣一個中型國家長期處於非正常狀態，對人民心理和國家發展都極為負面。8 f9 M p% n' P+ O" J0 _/ C( p
/ ^5 F7 S- h4 V- u, R
何況「西烏」獨立了，會否變成一個天主教國家？這又是一個危機。「西烏」一直是「烏克蘭希臘天主教會」大本營，這次宣布分治的利沃夫，原來就是其大主教教座所在地。這教會聽命於梵蒂岡的羅馬教廷，和烏克蘭最多人信奉的東正教形成對立，卻在海外烏克蘭僑民當中得到較多支持。問題是東正教在「西烏」依然有一定影響力，一旦「西烏」獨立，宗教問題可能更為突出，連內部和諧和共識也難達成。/ J1 q+ o' x% \& O* e
9 Y8 |0 ^$ C7 ], l* T4 [當「西烏」立國，沒有了俄羅斯支援，自然更希望加入歐盟。但要達到入盟的客觀準則，不是一天就辦到的事。歐盟並非要真心援助西烏克蘭，只是以此牽制俄羅斯，隨時以「俄羅斯問題」為由拖延「西烏」入盟。烏克蘭經濟重鎮都在較富裕的東部，「西烏」則以農業為主，一旦「西烏」真的入了歐盟，歐盟的「共同農業政策」會否「微調」補貼，也值得關注。可以想像的是，俄羅斯可能對「西烏」貨物實行保護政策，更可能不再以優惠價提供能源給「西烏」，都會令「西烏」經濟百上加斤。不是說和歐盟整合不可能帶來出路，只是在得到新經濟定位前，「西烏」獨立初年的經濟水平，可能比現在更差，其他社會民生問題也不易解決。 $ {' O; C) O8 K- M, |+ x, O, m. g. g7 h$ A5 }
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-2-23 10:35 AM 編輯 tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb! \/ b' } p3 d3 X% X8 m$ z- j
: Q* R1 [+ M# Z
Carl Bildt: Europe’s Crisis in Ukrainetvb now,tvbnow,bttvb% D: l1 W [+ v, w3 f& k* U
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb8 Z: S8 B" x0 ~' @7 v
& p% T3 {4 N3 U公仔箱論壇STOCKHOLM – How Ukraine’s profound crisis will end is impossible to predict. We in the European Union and the United States are doing what we can to secure a peaceful transition to a more stable democracy, and the implementation, at long last, of urgently needed reforms. And the agreement now concluded between President Viktor Yanukovich and the opposition should create a new possibility for this. , M2 b. j, c$ T% b# `3 `3 v公仔箱論壇 2 ^6 E9 @8 G2 W9 A0 S公仔箱論壇( O! ?4 O( H6 {0 J% j
If the agreement is not honored, Ukraine could well continue its descent into chaos and conflict, which would be in no one’s interest. That is why Ukraine’s crisis is a European crisis. And, though we cannot know how the crisis will end, we should be very clear about how it started. ' n _* y1 q: B( n& GTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( ?1 u& Y/ E/ r+ d7 j# ~
: W( F1 ^; C2 v' z
For years, Ukraine sought a closer relationship with the EU. Its leaders warmly endorsed the promise of enhanced ties under the EU’s Eastern Partnership, and pushed for an EU Association Agreement, together with a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. When those talks,which began under the previous Ukrainian government, were concluded, the agreement was endorsed by all four presidents and all 14 prime ministers to hold office since Ukraine achieved independence in 1991.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb6 S! M+ T' u* [/ D! U! B8 R
* H+ e7 t$ x$ K/ h: {8 v( {7 |/ |% w! x3 y- D1 C7 X5 ^6 ^, C
But, as the EU and Ukraine were addressing remaining issues ahead of the November 2013 Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius, where Ukraine was to sign its Association Agreement, something suddenly changed. From August onward, Russian policymakers embraced the openly declared aim of knocking Ukraine off the course that it had chosen. A political campaign against the agreement was launched, and the Kremlin mixed targeted sanctions with threats of harsher measures against the already-weak Ukrainian economy.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。% a; m0 m3 ]- \/ O& Y) Q( L
7 F8 @: O0 C2 o8 O* ^- L
% y) d; i& Y5 _* Z2 v$ Y p eTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Russian leaders publicly stated that if Ukraine signed a free-trade agreement with the EU, it would lose its free-trade deal with Russia, and high tariffs would be imposed on all goods and services. Severe economic pressure, it was made clear, would become open economic warfare. $ V7 Q1 U( y9 w% J0 k, S5 V% s( e, Ptvb now,tvbnow,bttvb6 t, n/ ^0 Z& P1 ?: @1 j& C
Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich gave way. In explaining to EU leaders that he was not ready to sign the Association Agreement, he was very clear that Russian pressure was responsible for his decision. ( L& B1 ~* x: c4 M$ }4 n5 r# y2 Vtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb # h2 R; R* P$ ]$ yTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5.39.217.764 X; i; k. y$ G7 w. u
This set in motion the chain of events that has now resulted in carnage and death in the streets of Kyiv. For many Ukrainians,Europe was the symbol of hope of a better life; suddenly, they felt betrayed by a political elite that they had long perceived as being incorrigibly corrupt.So, to be clear, it was the Kremlin’s pressure, and the Yanukovich administration’s vacillation, that produced the current crisis.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb% x1 y) ~$ |( U" Z
5 y8 W# R" l& ]" I9 z% H) [% Y6 p% g
. w/ S' h J2 V2 A% H公仔箱論壇Had Yanukovich decided to stand up to Russian pressure,there is no doubt that Ukraine would have faced difficulties. But, with an EU Association Agreement and the possibility of solid financial aid and reform assistance from the International Monetary Fund, the Russian measures would not have been sustainable. ! k2 Y" N- L# Q0 D* @ 7 v& d+ J+ e9 V) i0 c* ETVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 ( I, r z, g: ~公仔箱論壇Of course, the reforms asked of Ukraine would have been difficult, but no more difficult than what had been asked of other ex-communist countries that saw their future in and with Europe. There would have been light at the end of the tunnel, and, as Ukraine embraced the reform process, it would have been seen as a determined and democratic European country. ) w* e! l3 [; m' ~; Y公仔箱論壇TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。1 x5 I7 Z8 n& ?8 M5 U& x. J
公仔箱論壇5 a4 `3 m, O: m4 p7 _4 o
Instead, Yanukovich opted for a short-term strategy narrowly focused on his own political survival – a strategy that the protesters increasingly came to view as a game of deceit and betrayal. As the regime started to use violence to repress its opponents, violent opposition groups gained credibility.0 P/ U! m; e" t" O; u& e
- |& g3 p7 C( R9 a+ |公仔箱論壇tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb& H" b! F1 Y/ E3 G' X0 n
Free trade with both Russia and the EU would obviously havebeen good for Ukraine’s economy, thus providing a boost to the Russian economy as well, notwithstanding the oft-used but fundamentally bogus argument that EU goods would flow into Russia via Ukraine. (Has anyone heard Americans complaining that the free-trade agreement between Mexico and the EU is undermining the US economy?)! }2 b/ ^7 g) f. I* R- R
1 Z( I$ w) v7 M1 v7 T- A: M
) Y% h1 Z" M5 F/ P% Z0 I, h公仔箱論壇Russia is intent on building a new strategic bastion in the form of its proposed Eurasia Union, and it seems determined to force Ukraine to join. While publicly grumbling about supposed EU pressure on Ukraine, the reality is that Russia brutally extorted the country into abandoning its EU course. That is the source of this crisis; the facts speak for themselves.; C2 z y0 n2 G, K
2 f3 b7 U& n$ V1 ^4 P# f
& k( R: P* s7 s w% l5.39.217.76Even under the best of circumstances, the road back for Ukraine will be difficult. Russian pressure and destabilization, and the crisis to which they have led, have created new fissures in Ukraine’s society and have caused further damage to its fragile economy. And that damage could, one day, spill over into Russia. The Kremlin should have an interest in a stable and reforming neighbor that, like other countries, is also seeking a close relationship with the EU. # y8 U. Y* w* W0 L5.39.217.76 & C. E i* H9 m& qTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 0 {0 _, V( p& \# Z0 f* p5 stvb now,tvbnow,bttvbCarl Bildt has been Sweden’s foreign minister since 2006, and was Prime Minister from 1991 to 1994, when he negotiated Sweden’s EU accession. A renowned international diplomat, he served as EU Special Envoy to the Former Yugoslavia, High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, UN Special Envoy to the Balkans, and Co-Chairman of the Dayton Peace Conference.5.39.217.768 m. ~" O1 N' E; ?
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb& J0 X' H2 h$ t; R( o( C2 x
3 n7 H7 f7 u# u$ C- g5 R
5.39.217.761 }+ K$ P$ r7 s$ f+ K. g% v' A
Yevhen Bystrytsky: Can Ukraine Be Saved? & T' p) l- p, ?, P公仔箱論壇 5 z* m' h9 i2 ? % c5 U, T/ E& L6 _KYIV – Acrid black smoke hangs in the air and stings the eye in much of central Kyiv, where state repression is dampening hope of resolving Ukraine’s political crisis. With a truce between the government and the opposition shattered only hours after it came into effect, and with dozens of people reported killed in recent days, any hope for an end to the country’s deepening civil disorder appears to be fading fast.公仔箱論壇0 K! p0 w$ }/ l- s! v0 d6 f
) s) h6 w4 Z' k8 ] Y: U9 K
2 j3 s3 K5 v* F: H1 lTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Yes, a tentative settlement has been reached, following mediation by European Union foreign ministers, with a promise of early elections. But such settlements have been proposed before, and no agreement is likely to gain broad acceptance unless it includes the immediate departure of President Viktor Yanukovich.公仔箱論壇( Y9 g/ u+ `3 }3 C2 |# n
5.39.217.76: f5 U9 U$ I m3 X( n5 r) |
5.39.217.76( Z" |; o# O+ c* ]
In fact, Yanukovich’s government seems prepared to use any and all measures to remain in power. Taking a page from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s playbook, tax police are prosecuting civil-society organizations in the hope of cowing them into silence and irrelevance. Yet,despite such intimidation, Ukrainians from all walks of life have been protesting for three months in cities across the country.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb# q! _' X& O- A# Y0 q a7 Z
6 m/ `3 k' c! k* ?) q8 @4 ^tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb . D4 I. R& y* {- y: mAt its heart, this is a struggle between Ukraine’s European-oriented West and its Russian-fixated East for the country’s geopolitical soul. Will Ukraine move closer to the European Union or instead join the Russian-dominated Eurasian Union? ! p4 e" s: O* N8 Q, e: B公仔箱論壇 4 F7 [# E. E- d- d2 C6 Y' stvb now,tvbnow,bttvb % D9 W5 D4 Z, Z/ wDespite the mounting violence, Ukraine is not on the vergeof civil war – at least not yet. But make no mistake: the risk of the country –and its military – splintering is very real, as Yanukovich’s decision to sackVolodymyr Zamana, the head of the armed forces, attests. The conflict needs tobe stopped now.公仔箱論壇" V" @- \4 G6 M
To achieve that, Ukraine needs a transitional government ofexperts and a new constitution that returns the country to the system thatprevailed until a decade ago, with power divided between Parliament and thepresident. Moreover, a presidential election should be held within threemonths, with a new parliament voted in soon after. 6 }! l: Y; r! \! Y" V) ^6 s 0 D8 |& ]' ?8 f) S* Vtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb ! I9 p% t. S+ s% |2 WTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。But Yanukovich has shown that he does not want a negotiated solution. Until the recent surge in violence, it seemed that dialogue might defuse tensions. An amnesty for detained protesters was offered, and protesters agreed to withdraw from government buildings. But when demonstrators fulfilled their promise and evacuated occupied buildings, Yanukovich resorted to force in an effort to end the protests altogether. 7 _2 _1 Q, r% m0 z ~1 |7 v8 ktvb now,tvbnow,bttvbtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb) S1 g1 n F- [! Z
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb- k1 U$ A) ]7 M
Indeed, the police began firing into crowds of demonstrators, and have reportedly killed at least 70 and injured hundreds more. Hospitals are overflowing, and many people are avoiding state clinics, because they are afraid of being detained – or worse. The activist Yuri Verbitsky, a mathematical physicist, was abducted by five men in late January from a Kyiv hospital, where he had gone to seek treatment after being injured by a stun grenade at a demonstration. Verbitsky’s battered body was found the next day in a forest outside the city. 5 d, V6 o' p7 r( b' a' A公仔箱論壇tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb) D/ u3 h, a0 n( Z% J
Any prospect for resolving the crisis ultimately depends on regaining citizens’ trust in their police and security forces, which are now viewed by many as an occupying force.To reestablish the public’s confidence, there can be no impunity for those who fired bullets or gave the orders to fire. Officials’ excessive use of force,and the government’s reliance on semi-criminal thugs (known as titushki)to attack protesters, must be thoroughly investigated. 2 ?1 k- z* b3 }; _6 g % Z3 F7 C; x7 c j1 wtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 9 e i5 Z2 t: M/ {4 |( F" {But, even as the ongoing violence makes such an investigation all the more urgent, Ukraine’s prosecutor and courts refuse to act. That is why it is crucial that a high-level international mission –comprising civil-society leaders, the Council of Europe, and the European Union– launch a comprehensive inquiry and pressure Ukraine’s government to cooperate.' o& J; L* C& n
. J* q" X8 h) C ~$ g, B* e0 c0 Y 1 y- ?! Q. G# }0 l' z! K0 e( [tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThe EU and the United States have introduced diplomatic sanctions since the latest round of murderous violence began. This should include a travel ban not only on all officials who ordered, oversaw, or implemented the crackdown, but also on Yanukovich’s political enablers: the oligarchs who are now sitting on the sidelines while spiriting large sums of money out of the country. ) b1 f2 Y) ^. X: ]4 k. S4 {: r 8 Z3 q4 `6 P" T% F+ Y6 D7 u" ]tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb8 v& y6 ~' \" O+ F3 ^' H$ t
Sanctions should be lifted only when a credible investigation into the last three months of violence is permitted and a technocratic government is in place (at which point the EU and its member states should offer concrete economic assistance). Prime Minister Mykola Azarovresigned last month, ostensibly to make way for such a solution. But Yanukovich has refused to take the next step, or to commit to constitutional reforms,which largely explains the protesters’ growing frustration – and their determination to press ahead in the face of brutal repression.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( L- e, W+ M R( f+ r# U4 f9 b, U- o
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。: d' S( t; C/ U1 e! q* D! J0 @
1 Q3 k6 l+ Q8 k% n- b7 \- X
There is a perception in the West that all of Ukraine’s political forces are weak, divided, and corrupt. And there are growing concerns,often fueled by sensationalist media coverage, that far-right forces are gaining the upper hand within the opposition camp. But, though such forces do exist, the vast majority of demonstrators on the Maidans across the country are ordinary people angry about abuse of power, state violence, official impunity,and corruption. . W& G/ V# T5 }6 u9 y2 `! O' }1 E公仔箱論壇: w0 s( n; }/ ^5 Q( Q* o/ q3 _% j
% L! U/ S+ Y" A: U8 RTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。For the venal and vicious elites who have taken control of Ukraine, the real threat is these demonstrators’ perseverance, not the provocations of a radical fringe. Indeed, while I refuse to believe that Ukraine’s march to civil war is unstoppable, I also know that our citizens will never be silenced again. / k( c; \) i5 [tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。+ D+ I5 ^/ ~. l) d Yevhen Bystrytsky is Executive Director of the International Renaissance Foundation" ?- f& L- g8 e2 D' v* p% z2 c' J
852郵報:烏國國會罷免親俄總統 三困局未解局勢未許樂觀TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。4 y+ A( j( t9 M- z7 S
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb& V8 ]3 g0 B' @; _+ k $ b( h& M. X; V6 a( p* U# KTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 . g w! Z) P9 r P公仔箱論壇7 J& `4 i* m o9 j: Y. `2 y
7 h# P+ X+ z& E- ~3 F0 m$ H5.39.217.76 p' }1 C5 M6 y, K" @5 Ttvb now,tvbnow,bttvb+ M/ ~% h% \6 \) h ) d9 ]' a3 q- h5 Z& i7 f 8 }$ r1 d% e6 P I6 |" a, m2 bTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。) K$ G. n- D* k/ M1 f% E
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb: s: k) c' o4 c8 B( e8 T
連日來導致眾多示威者死傷的烏克蘭，昨日深夜出現政局變天。在親政府議長辭職下，烏克蘭國會通過罷免總統亞努科維奇，將於今年五月重新舉行大選。亞努科維奇拒絕承認國會的決定，並且已經出走首都基輔，去到較親俄的烏克蘭東部地區。被囚禁兩年多的「橙色革命」領袖，前總理季莫申科同時獲釋，並馬上宣佈將會參與五月的大選。而首都基輔，現時已落入親歐在野黨的控制。 9 K8 r4 m) O+ W e6 eTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 : r. f3 }8 S2 _( V6 ~7 [& V0 E5.39.217.76然而，親歐派在基輔的勝利並不意味著烏克蘭的局勢將逐漸緩和。相反，倘若烏克蘭的東西部分歧、反對派內訌及歐美俄國勢力交鋒等三大困局未能解決，烏克蘭有可能會入分裂局面。4 ` y- H) W' U, ]) O4 c- o8 v, B
% @/ \2 R' Z) Q: P4 m' N
在蘇聯時代，當時的蘇聯政權逼使烏克蘭人使用俄語。因此，烏克蘭語及俄語均是烏克蘭的通用語言。由於烏克蘭東部靠近俄羅斯，操俄語的民眾比率亦遠較西部地區高。因此，亞努科維奇在政治亂局之中選擇離開位於烏克蘭首都的基輔，而回到較支持自己的烏克蘭東部地區。變天後，不少東部地方政府馬上表示考慮增強自治權力。在文化差異及地緣政治因素下，烏克蘭可能在日後陷入分裂危機。 4 u0 A% E) ?4 B5.39.217.76 ( I& _# C8 S$ d! A2 WTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。其次，雖然前總理季莫申科終於出獄。然而，在示威期間，早有不少其他反對派領袖成功建立威信。包括烏克蘭民主改革聯盟的克里琴科，自由黨的特阿內博克等，還有不少烏克蘭民族主義者等。現時的反對派山頭處處，實際上並不團結。因此，一旦烏克蘭大局稍定，反對派領袖們會否一如二零一零年時，同樣親歐的時任總統尤先科及季莫申科互相傾軋，以致親俄派的亞努科維奇有機可乘，實屬未知之數。 , o! V6 V" i* Ktvb now,tvbnow,bttvbtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb2 C x: z# s6 R6 [% x
最後，雖然美國經常被指在親歐派背後策動推翻烏克蘭親俄政府。俄羅斯早前亦流出美國駐烏克蘭大使紐蘭以粗口辱罵歐盟在事件上太過軟弱。然而，實際上美國自己亦早已將戰略重心移至亞太地區，近年對中東及東歐政局的參與，已然大大減少。相反，俄羅斯通往西歐的天然氣通道，大都位於烏克蘭，而西部地區，更是這些運輸氣管的「咽喉」所在。因此，俄羅斯要烏克蘭繼續「聽聽話話」的決心，比歐盟及美國，均要強得多。俄國總統普京對這個最新局勢會有什麼回應，亦將對烏克蘭局勢有決定性影響。作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-2-25 08:29 AM
沈旭暉: 大獨與小獨：克里米亞脫離烏克蘭．韃靼脫離克里米亞？ ) K1 J' s" L! ~- D: _. A8 J: rtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb+ T0 K- A3 s+ q7 X: A2 X$ p S
公仔箱論壇' D+ t5 `' g; Q) K% O4 U
當克里米亞俄羅斯人思考是否要藉機爭取更大自治、脫離烏克蘭獨立，或回歸俄羅斯之際，其實轉過頭來，他們也給其他人牽制，那就是克里米亞韃靼人。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, h$ Y+ f# o p. p% g% i
" @0 M! w K0 E- B
克里米亞韃靼人出現在當地的淵源，可追溯至成吉思汗。成吉思汗西征建立四大汗國，其中拔都建立的欽察汗國進行內部分封，輾轉衍生了一系列子國，包括克里米亞汗國。這個汗國延續到一七八三年，遠比成吉思汗家族、其後人及附庸建立的其他汗國長命，原因之一是克里米亞韃靼人在鄂圖曼土耳其帝國興起後，願意成為其屬國，並成了伊斯蘭世界對抗東正教文明的橋頭堡，也算是一個區域大國。) a+ K: z! m. l2 A
1 }2 G1 X+ l8 j/ m. m換句話說，克里米亞韃靼人「自古以來」就是俄羅斯的大敵，不斷和莫斯科打仗，強盛時甚至會定期到烏克蘭或俄羅斯本部，捉拿斯拉夫人作奴隸貿易。俄羅斯強大後，克里米亞汗國被滅，境內韃靼人變成俄羅斯境內的少數民眾，但由沙皇時代到蘇聯時代，都依然被當作眼中釘，到了二戰期間全體被史太林流放，導致大量人口死亡，可謂變相種族滅絕，雙方可說仇深似海。公仔箱論壇' o3 a0 Z, T3 {4 x0 Z2 ?% c
+ x! Z* ?4 _& F' p
5 K$ G7 Q0 M5 V- t- C# n% D公仔箱論壇韃靼歷史悲壯 頗獲國際同情 / e' w; g% @5 J z0 B1 Z ; l' _+ g. i( @8 i) o公仔箱論壇自從烏克蘭獨立，克里米亞韃靼人作為當地原主人，終於被准許從中亞流放地回家。雖然他們的人口不再是多數，但也佔了今天克里米亞人口的百分之十二，而且因為歷史悲壯，得到頗多國際輿論支持，不少西方人覺得欠他們一個公道。公仔箱論壇 E2 N! M0 P/ s r1 m3 U3 d
& e- I# w1 y! _# {& i( u
無論克里米亞俄人要獨立也好，回歸俄羅斯也好，當地韃靼人都會比烏克蘭人更反對，韃靼人領袖已稱利用目前亂局「分裂烏克蘭」是「叛國」行為。其實，克里米亞韃靼人歷史上和烏克蘭人也有不少恩怨，但兩害相權取其輕，還是弱勢的烏克蘭政府比強勢的俄羅斯民族主義容易應付。9 f# y# y6 K( K, r& n1 O+ X
% x$ w/ y4 `7 q! F% z/ E* D/ O
雖然韃靼人口少，也沒有克里米亞自治共和國內部的自治區，但有烏克蘭政府承認的「克里米亞韃靼人大會」（Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People），作為克里米亞韃靼人「忽里勒台」的主要機關（「忽里勒台」是昔日蒙古推舉大汗的編制）。該機關曾宣布為克里米亞韃靼人的主權代表，有自己的旗和歌。雖然它只有代表韃靼人向國際社會、烏克蘭中央政府和克里米亞自治政府反映意見的功能，但也曾被克里米亞親俄政客以「活動違憲」為由要求取締。$ {# r3 h' P( [$ G- C
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。) k, x m# E+ U6 `( _% O1 c! A
克里米亞韃靼人還有流亡各地的同胞作後援，他們雖然不一定需要獨立，但都希望捍衞自己的身份認同、爭取自己的家園。 & d: T$ t. G8 A# O: Z4 J5.39.217.76 . |7 R, Y% `9 c2 J a1 ~公仔箱論壇假如克里米亞俄人真的走出這一步，理論上境內韃靼人同樣可以爭取「獨中獨」，要麼留在烏克蘭，要麼建立另一個自治共和國，總之不會願意回到俄羅斯手上。 : x* `8 B J- k& d* k: H3 m公仔箱論壇( Y8 W( s. C; b
當然，由於他們沒有佔當地人口多數的聚居地區，要發起上述行動，操作上頗為困難。然而，若果克里米亞問題只是俄、烏爭議，國際社會始終難以干涉，就像九十年代的多次危機，都是由兩國高層直接解決，鮮有克里米亞人民的角色。但有了韃靼人這個少數族裔元素，反而令國際社會多了保護少數族裔、多元文化的責任，有了關注的空間，令局勢更加複雜。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。: q( Q h; [; W/ {' y; h
7 J& `4 i* m o9 j: Y. `2 y
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。) K$ G. n- D* k/ M1 f% E