本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-2-23 10:35 AM 編輯 S2 w, U/ P4 D' o7 K% n0 t+ Itvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 6 t( n/ b3 L5 Y0 ~- PTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Carl Bildt: Europe’s Crisis in Ukraine 5 \5 O. c }- n5 z+ rtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb ; g! {& L6 Q/ h4 h0 s ' m. O" n6 v$ ~/ X& `( O5.39.217.76STOCKHOLM – How Ukraine’s profound crisis will end is impossible to predict. We in the European Union and the United States are doing what we can to secure a peaceful transition to a more stable democracy, and the implementation, at long last, of urgently needed reforms. And the agreement now concluded between President Viktor Yanukovich and the opposition should create a new possibility for this.5.39.217.769 c" ?6 ~: C+ f, ~1 W a, {: f
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- H# R+ g- L4 L# y) qTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。If the agreement is not honored, Ukraine could well continue its descent into chaos and conflict, which would be in no one’s interest. That is why Ukraine’s crisis is a European crisis. And, though we cannot know how the crisis will end, we should be very clear about how it started. ; K: a6 i% P; t7 {1 _5 Y$ }8 v' F1 A6 z3 ?+ ~( c( A) f5 Y. d# p
8 q4 U4 [# p: M7 |tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbFor years, Ukraine sought a closer relationship with the EU. Its leaders warmly endorsed the promise of enhanced ties under the EU’s Eastern Partnership, and pushed for an EU Association Agreement, together with a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. When those talks,which began under the previous Ukrainian government, were concluded, the agreement was endorsed by all four presidents and all 14 prime ministers to hold office since Ukraine achieved independence in 1991. ' u2 W* e" b/ U5 P # A9 w! q% p2 TTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 : u- e" X7 ?& z, ]$ _. ~tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbBut, as the EU and Ukraine were addressing remaining issues ahead of the November 2013 Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius, where Ukraine was to sign its Association Agreement, something suddenly changed. From August onward, Russian policymakers embraced the openly declared aim of knocking Ukraine off the course that it had chosen. A political campaign against the agreement was launched, and the Kremlin mixed targeted sanctions with threats of harsher measures against the already-weak Ukrainian economy.公仔箱論壇& Q: a5 {; S- a7 Z" ?- O* P2 O
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Russian leaders publicly stated that if Ukraine signed a free-trade agreement with the EU, it would lose its free-trade deal with Russia, and high tariffs would be imposed on all goods and services. Severe economic pressure, it was made clear, would become open economic warfare. 1 F2 ]0 r; Y( r m5 l# A. | ! X5 l4 Y1 i2 u" L, n8 u- J, HUkrainian President Viktor Yanukovich gave way. In explaining to EU leaders that he was not ready to sign the Association Agreement, he was very clear that Russian pressure was responsible for his decision.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。7 a, k3 ?0 t$ E! v- o# u* v2 \ w2 C
9 l/ Z0 Z% o" K- a3 B$ a% p / v i J0 e2 z1 m3 u5.39.217.76This set in motion the chain of events that has now resulted in carnage and death in the streets of Kyiv. For many Ukrainians,Europe was the symbol of hope of a better life; suddenly, they felt betrayed by a political elite that they had long perceived as being incorrigibly corrupt.So, to be clear, it was the Kremlin’s pressure, and the Yanukovich administration’s vacillation, that produced the current crisis.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。& j7 X. l7 R+ c- k& @, I: D: b
" O* G% h8 G% i' X+ K" @# i' T* Y # O6 q: X$ `: d8 fTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Had Yanukovich decided to stand up to Russian pressure,there is no doubt that Ukraine would have faced difficulties. But, with an EU Association Agreement and the possibility of solid financial aid and reform assistance from the International Monetary Fund, the Russian measures would not have been sustainable. : B; j# D1 n W" k9 R% [ A# r4 aTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。公仔箱論壇) b/ Z% k( k: O4 S& q- v
8 K% a8 s) B1 c# Q, y9 ktvb now,tvbnow,bttvbOf course, the reforms asked of Ukraine would have been difficult, but no more difficult than what had been asked of other ex-communist countries that saw their future in and with Europe. There would have been light at the end of the tunnel, and, as Ukraine embraced the reform process, it would have been seen as a determined and democratic European country. 2 i Q8 Z2 D: x" ^# ^# V% i2 eTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。. C8 _+ D- Q& I! _4 b; S F& z, T
* e+ \2 m$ f, z% a# z% D" w, f公仔箱論壇Instead, Yanukovich opted for a short-term strategy narrowly focused on his own political survival – a strategy that the protesters increasingly came to view as a game of deceit and betrayal. As the regime started to use violence to repress its opponents, violent opposition groups gained credibility. / `0 Y- [8 ~& W7 k) \ |1 s/ m$ F% {" C4 R! @( A
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Free trade with both Russia and the EU would obviously havebeen good for Ukraine’s economy, thus providing a boost to the Russian economy as well, notwithstanding the oft-used but fundamentally bogus argument that EU goods would flow into Russia via Ukraine. (Has anyone heard Americans complaining that the free-trade agreement between Mexico and the EU is undermining the US economy?)TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( v$ v8 [; n, B' Y" f( _: ^' @
7 g$ p3 ^. c$ R1 ~& d C ? " Z5 J6 z8 ?( F3 Y+ H/ q6 m/ W+ {$ O5.39.217.76Russia is intent on building a new strategic bastion in the form of its proposed Eurasia Union, and it seems determined to force Ukraine to join. While publicly grumbling about supposed EU pressure on Ukraine, the reality is that Russia brutally extorted the country into abandoning its EU course. That is the source of this crisis; the facts speak for themselves.公仔箱論壇9 m8 j, k+ x. s2 Y, b
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Even under the best of circumstances, the road back for Ukraine will be difficult. Russian pressure and destabilization, and the crisis to which they have led, have created new fissures in Ukraine’s society and have caused further damage to its fragile economy. And that damage could, one day, spill over into Russia. The Kremlin should have an interest in a stable and reforming neighbor that, like other countries, is also seeking a close relationship with the EU.5.39.217.767 w# I- f6 C9 g; q6 L9 q+ `- C
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公仔箱論壇! |' b% W- v7 z H f Carl Bildt has been Sweden’s foreign minister since 2006, and was Prime Minister from 1991 to 1994, when he negotiated Sweden’s EU accession. A renowned international diplomat, he served as EU Special Envoy to the Former Yugoslavia, High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, UN Special Envoy to the Balkans, and Co-Chairman of the Dayton Peace Conference.8 F3 f' U) C6 F$ u
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1 [9 A. F c/ Vtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbYevhen Bystrytsky: Can Ukraine Be Saved? " j5 ^, m- ~. d/ Q$ h/ y公仔箱論壇 5 P \3 q' a7 Y4 Q+ |TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 ; U A' n4 `% F) U ytvb now,tvbnow,bttvbKYIV – Acrid black smoke hangs in the air and stings the eye in much of central Kyiv, where state repression is dampening hope of resolving Ukraine’s political crisis. With a truce between the government and the opposition shattered only hours after it came into effect, and with dozens of people reported killed in recent days, any hope for an end to the country’s deepening civil disorder appears to be fading fast.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb( ^" X H t8 m7 Y+ r
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Yes, a tentative settlement has been reached, following mediation by European Union foreign ministers, with a promise of early elections. But such settlements have been proposed before, and no agreement is likely to gain broad acceptance unless it includes the immediate departure of President Viktor Yanukovich.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb0 I7 w9 \1 l/ Y. R: o$ I5 Q- D
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In fact, Yanukovich’s government seems prepared to use any and all measures to remain in power. Taking a page from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s playbook, tax police are prosecuting civil-society organizations in the hope of cowing them into silence and irrelevance. Yet,despite such intimidation, Ukrainians from all walks of life have been protesting for three months in cities across the country. + j5 e; _7 _8 I: q' B1 S. A& Z6 s5.39.217.76 ! @0 b6 g! c; a, X/ ~' P7 ] ^1 STVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5.39.217.765 t% k' r; t6 I
At its heart, this is a struggle between Ukraine’s European-oriented West and its Russian-fixated East for the country’s geopolitical soul. Will Ukraine move closer to the European Union or instead join the Russian-dominated Eurasian Union?TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。4 C# J7 U0 r1 o* @3 T
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8 h# a: ^! V, h" z' [- DDespite the mounting violence, Ukraine is not on the vergeof civil war – at least not yet. But make no mistake: the risk of the country –and its military – splintering is very real, as Yanukovich’s decision to sackVolodymyr Zamana, the head of the armed forces, attests. The conflict needs tobe stopped now. " M7 w# U3 ] N: x# R tTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。To achieve that, Ukraine needs a transitional government ofexperts and a new constitution that returns the country to the system thatprevailed until a decade ago, with power divided between Parliament and thepresident. Moreover, a presidential election should be held within threemonths, with a new parliament voted in soon after. ( B9 B( r' k: a! P3 n8 B' V' j' Atvb now,tvbnow,bttvb + |$ c: n: X/ v% h; a/ z/ F* g- s9 ~- _: j# g
But Yanukovich has shown that he does not want a negotiated solution. Until the recent surge in violence, it seemed that dialogue might defuse tensions. An amnesty for detained protesters was offered, and protesters agreed to withdraw from government buildings. But when demonstrators fulfilled their promise and evacuated occupied buildings, Yanukovich resorted to force in an effort to end the protests altogether. 1 E7 t1 a z3 h公仔箱論壇5.39.217.761 {, w& l( |7 h5 m& }6 Y% c2 L2 m
; @2 @6 m- f: k8 Q0 y" m5.39.217.76Indeed, the police began firing into crowds of demonstrators, and have reportedly killed at least 70 and injured hundreds more. Hospitals are overflowing, and many people are avoiding state clinics, because they are afraid of being detained – or worse. The activist Yuri Verbitsky, a mathematical physicist, was abducted by five men in late January from a Kyiv hospital, where he had gone to seek treatment after being injured by a stun grenade at a demonstration. Verbitsky’s battered body was found the next day in a forest outside the city.0 i) n. E5 \7 X# k7 ?7 v) I
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Any prospect for resolving the crisis ultimately depends on regaining citizens’ trust in their police and security forces, which are now viewed by many as an occupying force.To reestablish the public’s confidence, there can be no impunity for those who fired bullets or gave the orders to fire. Officials’ excessive use of force,and the government’s reliance on semi-criminal thugs (known as titushki)to attack protesters, must be thoroughly investigated. 4 p) |# `! f. g% l+ V# \3 W' a; V% X# ^
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But, even as the ongoing violence makes such an investigation all the more urgent, Ukraine’s prosecutor and courts refuse to act. That is why it is crucial that a high-level international mission –comprising civil-society leaders, the Council of Europe, and the European Union– launch a comprehensive inquiry and pressure Ukraine’s government to cooperate.( w2 g7 \) h% U- J; u6 a
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The EU and the United States have introduced diplomatic sanctions since the latest round of murderous violence began. This should include a travel ban not only on all officials who ordered, oversaw, or implemented the crackdown, but also on Yanukovich’s political enablers: the oligarchs who are now sitting on the sidelines while spiriting large sums of money out of the country. ; j; g) J/ l9 O- H. `tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 6 t/ G k1 o# @' S) F$ a9 {tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb " c8 q+ {( `' t2 r9 W. ETVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Sanctions should be lifted only when a credible investigation into the last three months of violence is permitted and a technocratic government is in place (at which point the EU and its member states should offer concrete economic assistance). Prime Minister Mykola Azarovresigned last month, ostensibly to make way for such a solution. But Yanukovich has refused to take the next step, or to commit to constitutional reforms,which largely explains the protesters’ growing frustration – and their determination to press ahead in the face of brutal repression. 8 o# {, L. h/ R ) X8 F( B P4 X) m; u5 zTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 9 e5 K% T \$ m4 c公仔箱論壇There is a perception in the West that all of Ukraine’s political forces are weak, divided, and corrupt. And there are growing concerns,often fueled by sensationalist media coverage, that far-right forces are gaining the upper hand within the opposition camp. But, though such forces do exist, the vast majority of demonstrators on the Maidans across the country are ordinary people angry about abuse of power, state violence, official impunity,and corruption.5.39.217.76* z+ T1 W# _+ x. f# ~4 W4 C9 f7 \
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% O$ ~+ \* m% s' O7 Y0 A7 Z, m4 _4 _, Q公仔箱論壇For the venal and vicious elites who have taken control of Ukraine, the real threat is these demonstrators’ perseverance, not the provocations of a radical fringe. Indeed, while I refuse to believe that Ukraine’s march to civil war is unstoppable, I also know that our citizens will never be silenced again.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb% _# F) `9 `( Q& \9 S/ R
/ @, N) [/ V, g$ Q% |2 o+ tYevhen Bystrytsky is Executive Director of the International Renaissance Foundation T, ?$ O0 a" j : g( D- O! j. u2 f) [5 I4 m公仔箱論壇作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-2-23 11:11 AM
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連日來導致眾多示威者死傷的烏克蘭，昨日深夜出現政局變天。在親政府議長辭職下，烏克蘭國會通過罷免總統亞努科維奇，將於今年五月重新舉行大選。亞努科維奇拒絕承認國會的決定，並且已經出走首都基輔，去到較親俄的烏克蘭東部地區。被囚禁兩年多的「橙色革命」領袖，前總理季莫申科同時獲釋，並馬上宣佈將會參與五月的大選。而首都基輔，現時已落入親歐在野黨的控制。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。0 J! y& U2 f! T( T& W! x A" u
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然而，親歐派在基輔的勝利並不意味著烏克蘭的局勢將逐漸緩和。相反，倘若烏克蘭的東西部分歧、反對派內訌及歐美俄國勢力交鋒等三大困局未能解決，烏克蘭有可能會入分裂局面。: _# M3 m% P1 v- M. l: G
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在蘇聯時代，當時的蘇聯政權逼使烏克蘭人使用俄語。因此，烏克蘭語及俄語均是烏克蘭的通用語言。由於烏克蘭東部靠近俄羅斯，操俄語的民眾比率亦遠較西部地區高。因此，亞努科維奇在政治亂局之中選擇離開位於烏克蘭首都的基輔，而回到較支持自己的烏克蘭東部地區。變天後，不少東部地方政府馬上表示考慮增強自治權力。在文化差異及地緣政治因素下，烏克蘭可能在日後陷入分裂危機。 8 X, h+ n$ R% o+ y公仔箱論壇, K$ E/ e- z# h- E L2 l7 _
其次，雖然前總理季莫申科終於出獄。然而，在示威期間，早有不少其他反對派領袖成功建立威信。包括烏克蘭民主改革聯盟的克里琴科，自由黨的特阿內博克等，還有不少烏克蘭民族主義者等。現時的反對派山頭處處，實際上並不團結。因此，一旦烏克蘭大局稍定，反對派領袖們會否一如二零一零年時，同樣親歐的時任總統尤先科及季莫申科互相傾軋，以致親俄派的亞努科維奇有機可乘，實屬未知之數。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb- n) L0 B+ H$ H4 Z3 ]3 B8 P/ o
9 e, g) R4 E# b) v公仔箱論壇最後，雖然美國經常被指在親歐派背後策動推翻烏克蘭親俄政府。俄羅斯早前亦流出美國駐烏克蘭大使紐蘭以粗口辱罵歐盟在事件上太過軟弱。然而，實際上美國自己亦早已將戰略重心移至亞太地區，近年對中東及東歐政局的參與，已然大大減少。相反，俄羅斯通往西歐的天然氣通道，大都位於烏克蘭，而西部地區，更是這些運輸氣管的「咽喉」所在。因此，俄羅斯要烏克蘭繼續「聽聽話話」的決心，比歐盟及美國，均要強得多。俄國總統普京對這個最新局勢會有什麼回應，亦將對烏克蘭局勢有決定性影響。作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-2-25 08:29 AM
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TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, B1 i! q4 I' P' | y! F 公仔箱論壇) l- E/ {" M. u, B# P( ]
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烏克蘭局勢似正出現微妙變化。據路透社報道，網上流傳烏克蘭前總統亞努科維奇的文件，指他曾計劃動用2萬多名警力鎮壓首都基輔的抗議民眾。文件的真偽難以證明，因為當亞努科維奇22日（上周六）晚間離開家鄉，並在獲知國會罷免他後倉卒逃亡，目前下落不明。新成立的烏克蘭臨時政府，則以「屠殺平民」的罪名通緝亞努科維奇。不過，俄羅斯總理梅德韋傑夫日前則形容，目前烏克蘭首都基輔發動只是一場「武裝暴動」，對當地新政權的合法性存疑。7 R) y" A) Z! s) I8 l+ ~ k& ^! `+ W
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現時烏克蘭面臨分裂，形成親俄、親歐兩種勢力，加上本土主義派抬頭，令局勢更加嚴峻。現在的臨時政府似已群雄無首，逐漸成為俄國與美、歐國家展開的新角力。烏克蘭夾在其中，一方面意識形態希望親歐，但經濟與能源上仍需大幅依賴俄羅斯，可謂進退兩難。值得留意的是，正當美、俄分別大喊別介入烏克蘭內政之時，實際上只要任何一方輕舉妄動，就會觸發一場內戰，讓烏克蘭陷入割據分裂的狀態。( I8 I4 ~8 Q2 M* ?6 z
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對於俄羅斯來說，當然希望拉攏烏克蘭，除烏克蘭屬前蘇聯之國土外，它還是重要腹地，對增強東歐諸國的地緣戰略起重要作用。但對於歐、美來說，也同樣正因烏克蘭這方面的戰略價值，更要設法討好烏克蘭境內的親歐人士和本土主義者，藉此聲勢浩蕩迎抗俄羅斯之勢，美俄的冷戰鐵幕，亦於是次衝突中若隱若現，而烏克蘭不過是雙方的一枚棋子。 7 Y; p3 m3 W" |* U 6 j- M x- O& `tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。1 u* f4 {8 ~; w; L& A4 F
烏克蘭即將於5月舉行大選，若民望高企的前總理季莫申科能順利當選，則烏克蘭的政局將會稍為緩和，因為季莫申科立場親歐，且有與俄羅斯談判的經驗，相信歐、美、俄都會接受這個人選。但若由本土派人士當選，那麼國家難免會陷入僵局，令烏克蘭分裂。儘管如此，當下可以說的是，過渡政府勢弱，百廢待興，未來數月或已要面臨各國的操控。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。7 M$ ^: H) H% D% t: x
# @/ h' \- P A' D$ PTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。烏克蘭現在陷入債務違約的危機，因為俄羅斯先前承諾向烏克蘭提供150億美元救助的計劃，現階段似乎很難付諸實施。至於歐盟，受希臘、意大利等國的債務度拖垮，恐怕對烏克蘭也愛莫能助。烏克蘭財政部表示，今明兩年需要350億美元援助，並要求在未來一兩周獲得第一筆援助金應急。烏克蘭在這大勢下，亦恐怕只能向俄羅斯屈服。過渡政府總統圖奇諾夫說，他希望烏克蘭同俄羅斯的關係是一種「新的、公平的、平等的、承認烏克蘭具有歐洲選擇權的鄰國關係。」然而此番說話，又有多少烏克蘭人會相信？公仔箱論壇; U+ ~3 d: v3 K
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。! P# Z" R* }* L; s
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