本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-2-23 10:35 AM 編輯 + Z% T3 ^7 h: n: K公仔箱論壇 - k8 K8 o% `1 v( W. A& s3 Q9 A公仔箱論壇Carl Bildt: Europe’s Crisis in Ukraine ! K8 g- @. q" B& r% E/ m! F. O' mtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb * Y. h) q6 a M# D3 [4 Y6 b, }/ L, c$ k' x# c6 a6 @7 h& V
STOCKHOLM – How Ukraine’s profound crisis will end is impossible to predict. We in the European Union and the United States are doing what we can to secure a peaceful transition to a more stable democracy, and the implementation, at long last, of urgently needed reforms. And the agreement now concluded between President Viktor Yanukovich and the opposition should create a new possibility for this. + ?( f/ X O& n. M, Y' u公仔箱論壇公仔箱論壇6 @0 |, }( G6 k3 v
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If the agreement is not honored, Ukraine could well continue its descent into chaos and conflict, which would be in no one’s interest. That is why Ukraine’s crisis is a European crisis. And, though we cannot know how the crisis will end, we should be very clear about how it started.* p/ p5 {: [/ r% W6 r6 k
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+ d; J# M3 \/ j2 YFor years, Ukraine sought a closer relationship with the EU. Its leaders warmly endorsed the promise of enhanced ties under the EU’s Eastern Partnership, and pushed for an EU Association Agreement, together with a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. When those talks,which began under the previous Ukrainian government, were concluded, the agreement was endorsed by all four presidents and all 14 prime ministers to hold office since Ukraine achieved independence in 1991.; `1 _! [0 z7 K
$ `6 E. h& ]' T! f- I. H & x+ J1 l+ C: q5.39.217.76But, as the EU and Ukraine were addressing remaining issues ahead of the November 2013 Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius, where Ukraine was to sign its Association Agreement, something suddenly changed. From August onward, Russian policymakers embraced the openly declared aim of knocking Ukraine off the course that it had chosen. A political campaign against the agreement was launched, and the Kremlin mixed targeted sanctions with threats of harsher measures against the already-weak Ukrainian economy.4 R9 e& [; ?7 F" l4 o7 q
" l% D* E+ \7 z" {. u: N- S6 \% ztvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 6 Y( U3 W/ o# q% g5 n, G公仔箱論壇Russian leaders publicly stated that if Ukraine signed a free-trade agreement with the EU, it would lose its free-trade deal with Russia, and high tariffs would be imposed on all goods and services. Severe economic pressure, it was made clear, would become open economic warfare. 0 x1 A/ s- p% M: [4 g+ J3 _TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。# d' U( v6 m3 G: N# U
Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich gave way. In explaining to EU leaders that he was not ready to sign the Association Agreement, he was very clear that Russian pressure was responsible for his decision. 3 y( q5 v8 m; r9 O- F6 _7 Q 0 @! x. O5 C4 d' d! {8 N0 Z- z公仔箱論壇4 b5 I4 s* R0 |: h
This set in motion the chain of events that has now resulted in carnage and death in the streets of Kyiv. For many Ukrainians,Europe was the symbol of hope of a better life; suddenly, they felt betrayed by a political elite that they had long perceived as being incorrigibly corrupt.So, to be clear, it was the Kremlin’s pressure, and the Yanukovich administration’s vacillation, that produced the current crisis.3 U' [ u7 S# |: Q
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" g. v$ Z6 u7 k1 L* ~, mtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbHad Yanukovich decided to stand up to Russian pressure,there is no doubt that Ukraine would have faced difficulties. But, with an EU Association Agreement and the possibility of solid financial aid and reform assistance from the International Monetary Fund, the Russian measures would not have been sustainable. 2 H" r$ ]- j6 @3 ~4 `% _TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 i# n; ?6 L5 t2 J7 \5.39.217.76 0 q) y! X5 D1 Z! L g+ K' @: hTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Of course, the reforms asked of Ukraine would have been difficult, but no more difficult than what had been asked of other ex-communist countries that saw their future in and with Europe. There would have been light at the end of the tunnel, and, as Ukraine embraced the reform process, it would have been seen as a determined and democratic European country.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb# c7 T, g8 n* Y
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Instead, Yanukovich opted for a short-term strategy narrowly focused on his own political survival – a strategy that the protesters increasingly came to view as a game of deceit and betrayal. As the regime started to use violence to repress its opponents, violent opposition groups gained credibility. ! f0 G- e" B. w- A4 \5 B1 JTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5.39.217.763 w! K( [- {! f% q2 n/ j+ D
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Free trade with both Russia and the EU would obviously havebeen good for Ukraine’s economy, thus providing a boost to the Russian economy as well, notwithstanding the oft-used but fundamentally bogus argument that EU goods would flow into Russia via Ukraine. (Has anyone heard Americans complaining that the free-trade agreement between Mexico and the EU is undermining the US economy?) + I& q" e* o/ _) g6 ^TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 ! T+ Q/ E; A) Y: W6 r0 Q* \" Q( G" T3 H F* [
Russia is intent on building a new strategic bastion in the form of its proposed Eurasia Union, and it seems determined to force Ukraine to join. While publicly grumbling about supposed EU pressure on Ukraine, the reality is that Russia brutally extorted the country into abandoning its EU course. That is the source of this crisis; the facts speak for themselves.5.39.217.76, u, P, J- a2 `
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Even under the best of circumstances, the road back for Ukraine will be difficult. Russian pressure and destabilization, and the crisis to which they have led, have created new fissures in Ukraine’s society and have caused further damage to its fragile economy. And that damage could, one day, spill over into Russia. The Kremlin should have an interest in a stable and reforming neighbor that, like other countries, is also seeking a close relationship with the EU.公仔箱論壇# c5 f, ?/ _+ {6 F! _0 a
& O& C+ }, d4 {$ w# |' {5 z$ V& f公仔箱論壇# O0 ]. j% ? F Carl Bildt has been Sweden’s foreign minister since 2006, and was Prime Minister from 1991 to 1994, when he negotiated Sweden’s EU accession. A renowned international diplomat, he served as EU Special Envoy to the Former Yugoslavia, High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, UN Special Envoy to the Balkans, and Co-Chairman of the Dayton Peace Conference.# `; y0 B) @! Z7 Q& l
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8 S% {: Q. I X6 N' F) [& F' k5.39.217.76Yevhen Bystrytsky: Can Ukraine Be Saved?公仔箱論壇: L/ v+ p8 Q$ l" a3 r
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/ T7 D2 v. v8 N; @6 q公仔箱論壇KYIV – Acrid black smoke hangs in the air and stings the eye in much of central Kyiv, where state repression is dampening hope of resolving Ukraine’s political crisis. With a truce between the government and the opposition shattered only hours after it came into effect, and with dozens of people reported killed in recent days, any hope for an end to the country’s deepening civil disorder appears to be fading fast. 8 d( J6 m" S" A3 a5.39.217.76公仔箱論壇2 |& |9 Z# I( y& Q& k3 y& U
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Yes, a tentative settlement has been reached, following mediation by European Union foreign ministers, with a promise of early elections. But such settlements have been proposed before, and no agreement is likely to gain broad acceptance unless it includes the immediate departure of President Viktor Yanukovich.公仔箱論壇; X. \# O' J1 j2 @5 ?" H
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In fact, Yanukovich’s government seems prepared to use any and all measures to remain in power. Taking a page from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s playbook, tax police are prosecuting civil-society organizations in the hope of cowing them into silence and irrelevance. Yet,despite such intimidation, Ukrainians from all walks of life have been protesting for three months in cities across the country. + N6 e1 ~6 w! atvb now,tvbnow,bttvb+ C% g% v7 H9 Q* A; e+ F( y' V
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At its heart, this is a struggle between Ukraine’s European-oriented West and its Russian-fixated East for the country’s geopolitical soul. Will Ukraine move closer to the European Union or instead join the Russian-dominated Eurasian Union?TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。# m* y+ [, ?, y. b9 c: t
% D$ y; m. w6 A; N公仔箱論壇 # x! Z6 ^( S; s3 v! z# `Despite the mounting violence, Ukraine is not on the vergeof civil war – at least not yet. But make no mistake: the risk of the country –and its military – splintering is very real, as Yanukovich’s decision to sackVolodymyr Zamana, the head of the armed forces, attests. The conflict needs tobe stopped now.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。& C2 ~7 m+ h( c) X' ?, w: c7 G
To achieve that, Ukraine needs a transitional government ofexperts and a new constitution that returns the country to the system thatprevailed until a decade ago, with power divided between Parliament and thepresident. Moreover, a presidential election should be held within threemonths, with a new parliament voted in soon after. 8 A8 O/ K0 ^% q5 S. |公仔箱論壇 ' v: \1 \: d& X# g$ T5.39.217.76tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb2 T7 z$ z+ o8 z, w% D
But Yanukovich has shown that he does not want a negotiated solution. Until the recent surge in violence, it seemed that dialogue might defuse tensions. An amnesty for detained protesters was offered, and protesters agreed to withdraw from government buildings. But when demonstrators fulfilled their promise and evacuated occupied buildings, Yanukovich resorted to force in an effort to end the protests altogether.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb3 h, t+ @3 a1 ?. o: `' A
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) E) j' Q" `3 X. k- `3 C: e% B5.39.217.76Indeed, the police began firing into crowds of demonstrators, and have reportedly killed at least 70 and injured hundreds more. Hospitals are overflowing, and many people are avoiding state clinics, because they are afraid of being detained – or worse. The activist Yuri Verbitsky, a mathematical physicist, was abducted by five men in late January from a Kyiv hospital, where he had gone to seek treatment after being injured by a stun grenade at a demonstration. Verbitsky’s battered body was found the next day in a forest outside the city.' l7 \3 l' F' `# z
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Any prospect for resolving the crisis ultimately depends on regaining citizens’ trust in their police and security forces, which are now viewed by many as an occupying force.To reestablish the public’s confidence, there can be no impunity for those who fired bullets or gave the orders to fire. Officials’ excessive use of force,and the government’s reliance on semi-criminal thugs (known as titushki)to attack protesters, must be thoroughly investigated. 7 Z( z2 x0 o4 x4 `4 j. ?tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。! o: a1 v/ P0 {2 n8 n: i7 _& m9 |
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But, even as the ongoing violence makes such an investigation all the more urgent, Ukraine’s prosecutor and courts refuse to act. That is why it is crucial that a high-level international mission –comprising civil-society leaders, the Council of Europe, and the European Union– launch a comprehensive inquiry and pressure Ukraine’s government to cooperate. 9 v5 h, z6 f. V+ u7 |TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。4 }; [! Z3 ` \' ~2 _) g& [$ U
- Z8 \4 F- ~' s! [5 btvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThe EU and the United States have introduced diplomatic sanctions since the latest round of murderous violence began. This should include a travel ban not only on all officials who ordered, oversaw, or implemented the crackdown, but also on Yanukovich’s political enablers: the oligarchs who are now sitting on the sidelines while spiriting large sums of money out of the country.- v! Q6 k, X& D; s! k
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Sanctions should be lifted only when a credible investigation into the last three months of violence is permitted and a technocratic government is in place (at which point the EU and its member states should offer concrete economic assistance). Prime Minister Mykola Azarovresigned last month, ostensibly to make way for such a solution. But Yanukovich has refused to take the next step, or to commit to constitutional reforms,which largely explains the protesters’ growing frustration – and their determination to press ahead in the face of brutal repression. |" r6 [# L2 V! _) |' M( \5 Ctvb now,tvbnow,bttvbtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb( K5 ^0 V" m4 @8 c0 C% X! P, @
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There is a perception in the West that all of Ukraine’s political forces are weak, divided, and corrupt. And there are growing concerns,often fueled by sensationalist media coverage, that far-right forces are gaining the upper hand within the opposition camp. But, though such forces do exist, the vast majority of demonstrators on the Maidans across the country are ordinary people angry about abuse of power, state violence, official impunity,and corruption. $ S, \- R2 P7 H5 Y% ]7 h6 y% v4 K 0 {0 [" A6 L7 L7 R( N) rTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb: {8 n; _0 s% J( m! ~
For the venal and vicious elites who have taken control of Ukraine, the real threat is these demonstrators’ perseverance, not the provocations of a radical fringe. Indeed, while I refuse to believe that Ukraine’s march to civil war is unstoppable, I also know that our citizens will never be silenced again. 0 u4 F3 I' q( X# [. A1 v1 b+ {TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。公仔箱論壇% A+ o- w0 O0 f4 _ Yevhen Bystrytsky is Executive Director of the International Renaissance Foundation * x- Z$ c: ]( \9 w$ v3 K- L" A3 Ftvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 2 X! L4 M! Z7 h |作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-2-23 11:11 AM
沈旭暉: 大獨與小獨：克里米亞脫離烏克蘭．韃靼脫離克里米亞？ 2 K- N4 W, q! n5 ?) Z; a/ n % n4 ]. X2 F5 f4 z) v ' B' c, Z8 c* G, j2 O! a& a+ P當克里米亞俄羅斯人思考是否要藉機爭取更大自治、脫離烏克蘭獨立，或回歸俄羅斯之際，其實轉過頭來，他們也給其他人牽制，那就是克里米亞韃靼人。 # A1 b, _4 z: N6 z* fTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5.39.217.76- x4 a& {0 F% a# f! C$ @. M
克里米亞韃靼人出現在當地的淵源，可追溯至成吉思汗。成吉思汗西征建立四大汗國，其中拔都建立的欽察汗國進行內部分封，輾轉衍生了一系列子國，包括克里米亞汗國。這個汗國延續到一七八三年，遠比成吉思汗家族、其後人及附庸建立的其他汗國長命，原因之一是克里米亞韃靼人在鄂圖曼土耳其帝國興起後，願意成為其屬國，並成了伊斯蘭世界對抗東正教文明的橋頭堡，也算是一個區域大國。 % n& k0 M' h1 `+ d( B$ n. u公仔箱論壇# l+ Q/ ]& {* d2 b1 l: X7 d: u
換句話說，克里米亞韃靼人「自古以來」就是俄羅斯的大敵，不斷和莫斯科打仗，強盛時甚至會定期到烏克蘭或俄羅斯本部，捉拿斯拉夫人作奴隸貿易。俄羅斯強大後，克里米亞汗國被滅，境內韃靼人變成俄羅斯境內的少數民眾，但由沙皇時代到蘇聯時代，都依然被當作眼中釘，到了二戰期間全體被史太林流放，導致大量人口死亡，可謂變相種族滅絕，雙方可說仇深似海。 4 l% {: i0 n) d$ x* [) C$ \# f7 W公仔箱論壇TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。+ Q, v+ H C+ r+ p
: }/ t _: C! c# a$ I公仔箱論壇韃靼歷史悲壯 頗獲國際同情5.39.217.76" j9 A5 R u7 y- ^" I& z" l
" Y( j$ m, @9 ~- Atvb now,tvbnow,bttvb自從烏克蘭獨立，克里米亞韃靼人作為當地原主人，終於被准許從中亞流放地回家。雖然他們的人口不再是多數，但也佔了今天克里米亞人口的百分之十二，而且因為歷史悲壯，得到頗多國際輿論支持，不少西方人覺得欠他們一個公道。 , d: _* R9 T; V+ ~8 h( D ( m b( W! y' w' t3 D8 g4 Btvb now,tvbnow,bttvb無論克里米亞俄人要獨立也好，回歸俄羅斯也好，當地韃靼人都會比烏克蘭人更反對，韃靼人領袖已稱利用目前亂局「分裂烏克蘭」是「叛國」行為。其實，克里米亞韃靼人歷史上和烏克蘭人也有不少恩怨，但兩害相權取其輕，還是弱勢的烏克蘭政府比強勢的俄羅斯民族主義容易應付。 M* G& U6 D; a, ^6 g& Q0 N zTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。0 n& |/ G% l S8 L Q: a% x, x
雖然韃靼人口少，也沒有克里米亞自治共和國內部的自治區，但有烏克蘭政府承認的「克里米亞韃靼人大會」（Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People），作為克里米亞韃靼人「忽里勒台」的主要機關（「忽里勒台」是昔日蒙古推舉大汗的編制）。該機關曾宣布為克里米亞韃靼人的主權代表，有自己的旗和歌。雖然它只有代表韃靼人向國際社會、烏克蘭中央政府和克里米亞自治政府反映意見的功能，但也曾被克里米亞親俄政客以「活動違憲」為由要求取締。 0 L# y0 n# y* @5.39.217.76" ?. ]% O! h! k E
克里米亞韃靼人還有流亡各地的同胞作後援，他們雖然不一定需要獨立，但都希望捍衞自己的身份認同、爭取自己的家園。 1 u; i* U* ?& v4 B/ S" ^公仔箱論壇 ! N: w& T- j+ B6 ^8 @/ A" sTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。假如克里米亞俄人真的走出這一步，理論上境內韃靼人同樣可以爭取「獨中獨」，要麼留在烏克蘭，要麼建立另一個自治共和國，總之不會願意回到俄羅斯手上。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。4 j1 I. l6 Q/ r- @2 Y
; @. ]: q" }3 g) k0 t& y當然，由於他們沒有佔當地人口多數的聚居地區，要發起上述行動，操作上頗為困難。然而，若果克里米亞問題只是俄、烏爭議，國際社會始終難以干涉，就像九十年代的多次危機，都是由兩國高層直接解決，鮮有克里米亞人民的角色。但有了韃靼人這個少數族裔元素，反而令國際社會多了保護少數族裔、多元文化的責任，有了關注的空間，令局勢更加複雜。 . ~- r; w. i: E; Z% G/ V( k! j. W' l e( h) l8 T7 F( s9 u2 C' }; u4 h' s 9 i, k. o# a4 k. O5 Y$ gTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。二之二．全文完作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-2-25 11:44 PM
852郵報: 本土派左右烏克蘭大局 0 y6 p, G% N, e- \2 _9 Ptvb now,tvbnow,bttvb % \( P! ~) I0 w. e! A* @5 U % }. F4 ]+ z4 ^公仔箱論壇5.39.217.76* ~+ ^! _( _/ O* q4 |/ R2 X
) [; A' k0 }3 l H2 K, _# n- G5.39.217.76烏克蘭局勢似正出現微妙變化。據路透社報道，網上流傳烏克蘭前總統亞努科維奇的文件，指他曾計劃動用2萬多名警力鎮壓首都基輔的抗議民眾。文件的真偽難以證明，因為當亞努科維奇22日（上周六）晚間離開家鄉，並在獲知國會罷免他後倉卒逃亡，目前下落不明。新成立的烏克蘭臨時政府，則以「屠殺平民」的罪名通緝亞努科維奇。不過，俄羅斯總理梅德韋傑夫日前則形容，目前烏克蘭首都基輔發動只是一場「武裝暴動」，對當地新政權的合法性存疑。 ( ^% B, }0 V) Y, q, g" a公仔箱論壇 1 h. }3 Y4 D$ j5.39.217.76現時烏克蘭面臨分裂，形成親俄、親歐兩種勢力，加上本土主義派抬頭，令局勢更加嚴峻。現在的臨時政府似已群雄無首，逐漸成為俄國與美、歐國家展開的新角力。烏克蘭夾在其中，一方面意識形態希望親歐，但經濟與能源上仍需大幅依賴俄羅斯，可謂進退兩難。值得留意的是，正當美、俄分別大喊別介入烏克蘭內政之時，實際上只要任何一方輕舉妄動，就會觸發一場內戰，讓烏克蘭陷入割據分裂的狀態。$ t V w H* f
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