! @: q* ^8 r$ r+ Y公仔箱論壇更令人憂慮的，是目前無論是烏克蘭中央政府、還是反對派陣營，都已用到「恐怖分子」、「反恐」一類字眼加諸對方，這是極不健康的徵兆。假如兩地民族主義被挑起，都以此鞏固政權，伴隨而來的自然是找內奸一類行動，再繼而出現大規模人口轉移，這在東歐歷史曾反覆出現。這樣的折騰，需要更長時間讓社會回復常態，治安亦很可能變壞。! u% x; G1 J, d- C# e( A+ [/ c. I
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說了那麼多，是否「西烏」一定獨立無望？不是的。是否應爭取獨立，是「西烏」人自己才能決定的問題，但真的決定爭取，在目前國際格局，只會有上述後果。符合國際遊戲規則的獨立方式，應是先掩飾自己的獨立訴求，找一個面目模糊的中性候選人參選總統，贏了大選，然後以中央身份推動聯邦制，讓「東烏」、「西烏」分別享有克里米亞那樣的自治共和國地位，鞏固了邊界，確立了政治、經濟模式，再不斷修憲，最終和平分手。過程當然依然困難，但起碼是王道。 8 m; |. h1 M: e( T9 t6 ~, Y ! _" k0 l: _1 \" W0 ~TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-2-23 10:28 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-2-23 10:35 AM 編輯 1 w$ {9 e! q* W$ N$ u1 O 7 K5 l- r# t3 h' l$ TTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Carl Bildt: Europe’s Crisis in Ukraine5.39.217.764 _2 G1 f6 G' w# q+ J1 K7 R
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STOCKHOLM – How Ukraine’s profound crisis will end is impossible to predict. We in the European Union and the United States are doing what we can to secure a peaceful transition to a more stable democracy, and the implementation, at long last, of urgently needed reforms. And the agreement now concluded between President Viktor Yanukovich and the opposition should create a new possibility for this.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。6 y) W# C" p: I6 ]1 }4 S
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If the agreement is not honored, Ukraine could well continue its descent into chaos and conflict, which would be in no one’s interest. That is why Ukraine’s crisis is a European crisis. And, though we cannot know how the crisis will end, we should be very clear about how it started. 1 q0 J( ~5 Y' i. X) o! @9 Vtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb公仔箱論壇$ _& }3 n& s# P# r8 u7 J
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For years, Ukraine sought a closer relationship with the EU. Its leaders warmly endorsed the promise of enhanced ties under the EU’s Eastern Partnership, and pushed for an EU Association Agreement, together with a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. When those talks,which began under the previous Ukrainian government, were concluded, the agreement was endorsed by all four presidents and all 14 prime ministers to hold office since Ukraine achieved independence in 1991.$ A% u* l# k) X$ q
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But, as the EU and Ukraine were addressing remaining issues ahead of the November 2013 Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius, where Ukraine was to sign its Association Agreement, something suddenly changed. From August onward, Russian policymakers embraced the openly declared aim of knocking Ukraine off the course that it had chosen. A political campaign against the agreement was launched, and the Kremlin mixed targeted sanctions with threats of harsher measures against the already-weak Ukrainian economy.5.39.217.76 d! P3 W- U, e8 E# b G
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: O$ d3 l) X: ~0 Y# i7 u& G9 E- ?TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Russian leaders publicly stated that if Ukraine signed a free-trade agreement with the EU, it would lose its free-trade deal with Russia, and high tariffs would be imposed on all goods and services. Severe economic pressure, it was made clear, would become open economic warfare. 0 M9 B* E, u6 O C) N# \ stvb now,tvbnow,bttvb公仔箱論壇( O! Q( y% G! ^2 C( N, V5 i
Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich gave way. In explaining to EU leaders that he was not ready to sign the Association Agreement, he was very clear that Russian pressure was responsible for his decision. ( m l7 {; t% u, D5 K公仔箱論壇 {4 a4 J e2 c6 n J6 Ftvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5.39.217.765 _$ I4 c0 F5 Q8 T9 t
This set in motion the chain of events that has now resulted in carnage and death in the streets of Kyiv. For many Ukrainians,Europe was the symbol of hope of a better life; suddenly, they felt betrayed by a political elite that they had long perceived as being incorrigibly corrupt.So, to be clear, it was the Kremlin’s pressure, and the Yanukovich administration’s vacillation, that produced the current crisis. # T; U% q# W* m& E3 {. s公仔箱論壇 , X. e P' N3 h. P% X公仔箱論壇7 C* m3 a! {; U/ ]+ P+ c
Had Yanukovich decided to stand up to Russian pressure,there is no doubt that Ukraine would have faced difficulties. But, with an EU Association Agreement and the possibility of solid financial aid and reform assistance from the International Monetary Fund, the Russian measures would not have been sustainable.: a8 \( F* i% `
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Of course, the reforms asked of Ukraine would have been difficult, but no more difficult than what had been asked of other ex-communist countries that saw their future in and with Europe. There would have been light at the end of the tunnel, and, as Ukraine embraced the reform process, it would have been seen as a determined and democratic European country. ! R& ?3 s6 g: {% ~8 T 9 d( q3 b, D1 f. E$ i+ [ 8 h$ P1 d! d( z- Q$ O" D/ v公仔箱論壇Instead, Yanukovich opted for a short-term strategy narrowly focused on his own political survival – a strategy that the protesters increasingly came to view as a game of deceit and betrayal. As the regime started to use violence to repress its opponents, violent opposition groups gained credibility. 1 D2 P4 y, i9 A- PTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( V9 Z. |0 F' A; I. |% z9 M7 R4 b
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Free trade with both Russia and the EU would obviously havebeen good for Ukraine’s economy, thus providing a boost to the Russian economy as well, notwithstanding the oft-used but fundamentally bogus argument that EU goods would flow into Russia via Ukraine. (Has anyone heard Americans complaining that the free-trade agreement between Mexico and the EU is undermining the US economy?) 6 S& r, b1 K2 W1 Z, j) K- F! w + m3 m8 i( i: {; f3 @. b+ j' ?/ |tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb' c4 I4 [1 x2 v
Russia is intent on building a new strategic bastion in the form of its proposed Eurasia Union, and it seems determined to force Ukraine to join. While publicly grumbling about supposed EU pressure on Ukraine, the reality is that Russia brutally extorted the country into abandoning its EU course. That is the source of this crisis; the facts speak for themselves.5.39.217.764 j U3 g1 g; x, u
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4 e$ U7 C* S: p+ f$ L4 {公仔箱論壇Even under the best of circumstances, the road back for Ukraine will be difficult. Russian pressure and destabilization, and the crisis to which they have led, have created new fissures in Ukraine’s society and have caused further damage to its fragile economy. And that damage could, one day, spill over into Russia. The Kremlin should have an interest in a stable and reforming neighbor that, like other countries, is also seeking a close relationship with the EU.公仔箱論壇+ K. V7 P/ `2 x" T. j
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9 C- B, }' { q6 C Carl Bildt has been Sweden’s foreign minister since 2006, and was Prime Minister from 1991 to 1994, when he negotiated Sweden’s EU accession. A renowned international diplomat, he served as EU Special Envoy to the Former Yugoslavia, High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, UN Special Envoy to the Balkans, and Co-Chairman of the Dayton Peace Conference. ; \7 j% t& A D+ T5.39.217.76 + N4 E, R! v# k9 @; J: \' `* Ftvb now,tvbnow,bttvb2 |1 ~' ~0 K) c7 R* o
8 }! _$ R: G' j0 R5 c9 X- v$ z; |5.39.217.76Yevhen Bystrytsky: Can Ukraine Be Saved? + _% Q8 A+ H6 z8 T3 QTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 # R. V7 P0 D+ h3 y' Y5 _' `' Z, E* A0 Q8 _3 K
KYIV – Acrid black smoke hangs in the air and stings the eye in much of central Kyiv, where state repression is dampening hope of resolving Ukraine’s political crisis. With a truce between the government and the opposition shattered only hours after it came into effect, and with dozens of people reported killed in recent days, any hope for an end to the country’s deepening civil disorder appears to be fading fast. 5 F# m" O# r: K1 `) s公仔箱論壇 1 f2 q9 ?) W% I( {7 x yTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, I4 \0 @9 l& d! w5 C* M
Yes, a tentative settlement has been reached, following mediation by European Union foreign ministers, with a promise of early elections. But such settlements have been proposed before, and no agreement is likely to gain broad acceptance unless it includes the immediate departure of President Viktor Yanukovich.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。+ x8 M3 c* `0 r
1 \$ G9 [& X' f5 b3 [ 8 k5 \" J; G. M8 Z5 @: Qtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbIn fact, Yanukovich’s government seems prepared to use any and all measures to remain in power. Taking a page from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s playbook, tax police are prosecuting civil-society organizations in the hope of cowing them into silence and irrelevance. Yet,despite such intimidation, Ukrainians from all walks of life have been protesting for three months in cities across the country. 3 @. m- Z0 C" A公仔箱論壇# `' f% x; ]: t. ~" D* c
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At its heart, this is a struggle between Ukraine’s European-oriented West and its Russian-fixated East for the country’s geopolitical soul. Will Ukraine move closer to the European Union or instead join the Russian-dominated Eurasian Union? X4 V0 ?. H4 G, LTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb' [, C3 c$ W" Z/ U0 [$ L
/ B- h5 G4 }" n4 I. I. \9 k) zDespite the mounting violence, Ukraine is not on the vergeof civil war – at least not yet. But make no mistake: the risk of the country –and its military – splintering is very real, as Yanukovich’s decision to sackVolodymyr Zamana, the head of the armed forces, attests. The conflict needs tobe stopped now. ) l' U9 z, d+ q3 U* O1 P# [tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbTo achieve that, Ukraine needs a transitional government ofexperts and a new constitution that returns the country to the system thatprevailed until a decade ago, with power divided between Parliament and thepresident. Moreover, a presidential election should be held within threemonths, with a new parliament voted in soon after. F* O% b. |- m; [" YTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 & G! x& l4 d% _- p" F0 m: G; r1 Y ! h/ e* Q5 N: N: C/ Z2 |公仔箱論壇But Yanukovich has shown that he does not want a negotiated solution. Until the recent surge in violence, it seemed that dialogue might defuse tensions. An amnesty for detained protesters was offered, and protesters agreed to withdraw from government buildings. But when demonstrators fulfilled their promise and evacuated occupied buildings, Yanukovich resorted to force in an effort to end the protests altogether. U( C) d# x* S! ^
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/ I5 G! u N& ^; n5 D5.39.217.76Indeed, the police began firing into crowds of demonstrators, and have reportedly killed at least 70 and injured hundreds more. Hospitals are overflowing, and many people are avoiding state clinics, because they are afraid of being detained – or worse. The activist Yuri Verbitsky, a mathematical physicist, was abducted by five men in late January from a Kyiv hospital, where he had gone to seek treatment after being injured by a stun grenade at a demonstration. Verbitsky’s battered body was found the next day in a forest outside the city.6 c* j3 B$ ]$ p$ _, u* |
, K4 B1 y( ~1 }2 z3 \; L公仔箱論壇Any prospect for resolving the crisis ultimately depends on regaining citizens’ trust in their police and security forces, which are now viewed by many as an occupying force.To reestablish the public’s confidence, there can be no impunity for those who fired bullets or gave the orders to fire. Officials’ excessive use of force,and the government’s reliance on semi-criminal thugs (known as titushki)to attack protesters, must be thoroughly investigated.. O1 W; A& j& {/ ^. Q
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# `( k7 Q; B* [% Y* A* X4 wTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。But, even as the ongoing violence makes such an investigation all the more urgent, Ukraine’s prosecutor and courts refuse to act. That is why it is crucial that a high-level international mission –comprising civil-society leaders, the Council of Europe, and the European Union– launch a comprehensive inquiry and pressure Ukraine’s government to cooperate.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, x4 L+ k( v' d+ c
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The EU and the United States have introduced diplomatic sanctions since the latest round of murderous violence began. This should include a travel ban not only on all officials who ordered, oversaw, or implemented the crackdown, but also on Yanukovich’s political enablers: the oligarchs who are now sitting on the sidelines while spiriting large sums of money out of the country. 2 U5 B1 @3 h, J; r$ Ttvb now,tvbnow,bttvb公仔箱論壇8 N5 T t: m3 n' }- O3 T0 v% W" K4 s, ~
9 U& P) l6 o5 x$ c9 T& C/ ^tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbSanctions should be lifted only when a credible investigation into the last three months of violence is permitted and a technocratic government is in place (at which point the EU and its member states should offer concrete economic assistance). Prime Minister Mykola Azarovresigned last month, ostensibly to make way for such a solution. But Yanukovich has refused to take the next step, or to commit to constitutional reforms,which largely explains the protesters’ growing frustration – and their determination to press ahead in the face of brutal repression.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。" L& l! h5 H& S8 W2 \0 t
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There is a perception in the West that all of Ukraine’s political forces are weak, divided, and corrupt. And there are growing concerns,often fueled by sensationalist media coverage, that far-right forces are gaining the upper hand within the opposition camp. But, though such forces do exist, the vast majority of demonstrators on the Maidans across the country are ordinary people angry about abuse of power, state violence, official impunity,and corruption. 7 _+ {, Z* S* h" X9 X; x" b% Qtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 4 g7 M) {7 }* \6 {' \6 oTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。- P5 T+ A6 e2 n& w# R J# c: \
For the venal and vicious elites who have taken control of Ukraine, the real threat is these demonstrators’ perseverance, not the provocations of a radical fringe. Indeed, while I refuse to believe that Ukraine’s march to civil war is unstoppable, I also know that our citizens will never be silenced again. 5 [. U9 F! ? n公仔箱論壇 4 n9 u1 d F4 c0 w# h* ]1 U9 v; G+ N9 [5.39.217.76Yevhen Bystrytsky is Executive Director of the International Renaissance Foundation公仔箱論壇/ Y: |7 b3 E( q
( E7 m$ w0 o% s% j n, V作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-2-23 11:11 AM
烏國會罷免總統 5月大選 亞努科維奇堅拒辭職 前「美女總理」獲釋( t r6 k. w# ?+ S8 a
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。9 ~# ~3 L0 G7 R
6 n' H! t+ |/ w8 ?* Y2 GTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。現時烏克蘭面臨分裂，形成親俄、親歐兩種勢力，加上本土主義派抬頭，令局勢更加嚴峻。現在的臨時政府似已群雄無首，逐漸成為俄國與美、歐國家展開的新角力。烏克蘭夾在其中，一方面意識形態希望親歐，但經濟與能源上仍需大幅依賴俄羅斯，可謂進退兩難。值得留意的是，正當美、俄分別大喊別介入烏克蘭內政之時，實際上只要任何一方輕舉妄動，就會觸發一場內戰，讓烏克蘭陷入割據分裂的狀態。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 ]9 i, a' @ ^5 S- ]- E
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對於俄羅斯來說，當然希望拉攏烏克蘭，除烏克蘭屬前蘇聯之國土外，它還是重要腹地，對增強東歐諸國的地緣戰略起重要作用。但對於歐、美來說，也同樣正因烏克蘭這方面的戰略價值，更要設法討好烏克蘭境內的親歐人士和本土主義者，藉此聲勢浩蕩迎抗俄羅斯之勢，美俄的冷戰鐵幕，亦於是次衝突中若隱若現，而烏克蘭不過是雙方的一枚棋子。% a. V, l5 Z% Z
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烏克蘭即將於5月舉行大選，若民望高企的前總理季莫申科能順利當選，則烏克蘭的政局將會稍為緩和，因為季莫申科立場親歐，且有與俄羅斯談判的經驗，相信歐、美、俄都會接受這個人選。但若由本土派人士當選，那麼國家難免會陷入僵局，令烏克蘭分裂。儘管如此，當下可以說的是，過渡政府勢弱，百廢待興，未來數月或已要面臨各國的操控。 1 o# F/ L. t+ S4 M$ y3 ~4 `, cTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。: P1 k$ a8 i, h2 F
烏克蘭現在陷入債務違約的危機，因為俄羅斯先前承諾向烏克蘭提供150億美元救助的計劃，現階段似乎很難付諸實施。至於歐盟，受希臘、意大利等國的債務度拖垮，恐怕對烏克蘭也愛莫能助。烏克蘭財政部表示，今明兩年需要350億美元援助，並要求在未來一兩周獲得第一筆援助金應急。烏克蘭在這大勢下，亦恐怕只能向俄羅斯屈服。過渡政府總統圖奇諾夫說，他希望烏克蘭同俄羅斯的關係是一種「新的、公平的、平等的、承認烏克蘭具有歐洲選擇權的鄰國關係。」然而此番說話，又有多少烏克蘭人會相信？ / a: a% {" D3 X: _0 Y! L, t6 _. D $ i9 }, Y, a3 o5.39.217.76
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