* o9 S0 a$ f( e) V+ ITVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。「顏色革命」在香港：「被出現」與「被回應」 / ?% P( O, l2 t3 w+ i公仔箱論壇 . D; Q' h; ^5 W6 @/ S公仔箱論壇* O1 |) k$ }0 i/ M. J) y% f
（1）顏色革命爆發在有深層次矛盾的社會，而香港的堅尼系數居於發達經濟體最前列，加上有了七一遊行的人數圖騰，成了「反顏色革命」框架被應用在香港的起點；: j3 X) P' J! \
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。" C: X4 f; L7 P3 E: H
（2）顏色革命領袖為與外國友好的前朝精英，而一些港英高層成了被指有外國聯繫的反對派領袖，若干人物在論證外國聯繫時必然出場，特別是被指屬於英國相關部門的霍德；《維基解密》則意外成了愛國評論員最愛援引的權威，因為它「揭露」了美國要「重點保護」的香港政客和學者名單； I& T7 \/ S3 ~9 z2 Utvb now,tvbnow,bttvb% f0 I, C" x( Z B8 }/ A
（3）顏色革命的理念由NGO弘揚，香港公民社會發達，接受國際基金會捐款的NGO不少，只要接受美國國家民主基金會（NED）及其白手套（例如NDI）捐款，則會自動被懷疑為「革命團體」； 0 |* {, i+ O' F, i. y公仔箱論壇 ; Y* [; n3 \1 Q# G2 M3 \5.39.217.76（4）顏色革命以普世價值為理念，經親西方媒體傳播，香港近年則要推廣國民教育，負責官員明言「沒有普世價值這回事」；去年區議會選舉前「報業大亨捐款門」曝光，則成了相關媒體與西方配合的證據； ) c' ~8 j6 Z+ e) ~6 {: f; wTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 7 f- t9 c4 R& W6 n$ l5.39.217.76（5）顏色革命有互聯網的功勞，烏茲別克等的反制經驗是高壓，俄羅斯的經驗則是以國家資源反動員；香港難以管制互聯網，但親北京陣營近年在互聯網的表現大大進步，帶民粹傾向的動員能力愈來愈強； + b, u/ a: o: C$ c, x5.39.217.761 V9 ^/ _6 x/ O
（6）顏色革命以選舉爭議發酵，去年區議會選舉的種票爭議，則是北京眼中的相應警號，因為北京把種票定性為不影響結果的個別事件，批評這也能主導輿論才屬上綱上線；tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb( u8 a$ ?$ v' s- n, W
: t3 n" r& ^. ~: y/ ZTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。（7）顏色革命前的選舉不公得到國際社會核實；現任美國駐港總領事楊甦棣擔任美國駐吉爾吉斯大使時發生了「鬱金香革命」，當時他自然評論過當地選舉；去年他就香港區選、特首選舉等發表評論，「故態復萌」，遂被外交部警告；tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb1 \0 H% o; Y, o( A. e
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2012-2-7 10:09 AM 編輯 2 c: O' S' X6 p" Z. W% X
- Z& I* \7 O8 [ Mischa Gabowitsch: A Strategy for Russia’s Snow Revolution$ L% a) M2 y! b# {9 T5 @) d* i3 B
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MOSCOW – Nonviolent revolutions do not always remain nonviolent, as the examples of uprisings in Egypt,Libya, and Syria in the Arab Spring have shown. But peaceful movements for regime change often do succeed. They have toppled illegitimate rulers, as with the post-Soviet“color revolutions” in Georgia and Ukraine,and ended apartheid in South Africa,for example, or, before that, the Jim Crow system in the American South.Non-violent movements broke British rule in India and Malawi, and brought down authoritarian regimes in Chile,the Philippines,and Portugal., D" R5 P6 Q' l! x8 b
5 v& O0 B( T' H: ?- V4 I) ?) N2 fOn the surface, most of these cases seem so different from present-day Russia as to be irrelevant to the success or failure of the current protests against Vladimir Putin’s continued rule and the protesters’ call for free,fair, and competitive elections. But which differences are important?公仔箱論壇# N4 Y, z* Y- I. Z8 d$ w
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The immediate outcomes of nonviolent movements for political change are not decided by macro-factors such as levels of education, unemployment, or the presence of a modern middle class. After all, civil resistance has succeeded in poor, backward countries, like India,and failed in rich, educated ones, like the Gulf states. 8 C& r6 U8 R Z3 Y' }8 c( H* \3 |TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 3 r/ p: ~, A% x3 Z0 O0 R4 T3 a, \5.39.217.76Nor do short-term windows of opportunity play a decisive role: no serious economic crisis was needed for Chileans to oust General Augusto Pinochet, and Panama’s Manuel Noriega survived a massive nonviolent protest movement, despite crippling economic problems and divisions within the ruling elite. 2 B- n" Q9 J5 v$ ZTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 / q1 x. Q& ?5 i8 o5 J. uRecent research by the sociologists Erica Chenoweth, Maria J. Stephan, and Sharon Erickson Nepstad shows that one factor more than any other determines whether nonviolent struggles succeed: protesters’ decision to adopt nonviolence itself. Indeed, Chenoweth and Stephan have shown that peaceful protests are more than twice as likely as violent confrontation to bring about complete or partial regime change. ' f1 L, Q9 L& ~& T+ y, t& C& |2 b5.39.217.76 . G7 U$ h' Y0 z, n8 p- r( jBut the outcome of civil resistance also depends on the precise methods used. Challenging the regime’s legitimacy and withholding skills and material resources from it are important, as is creating free spaces for dissent and maintaining the movement’s unity and clarity of purpose. Most importantly, as Nepstad has shown, a protest movement aimed at regime change needs to win over critical parts of the police and armed forces.5.39.217.76) }" ?6 f2 D; O! k
+ y; y* o! X- J$ V* R# \9 htvb now,tvbnow,bttvbConversely, a government that secures the unconditional loyalty of its troops will be able to crush even the most sustained popular protests. Yet it can do so only at the cost of much bloodshed, and a half-hearted or ineffectual crackdown makes the protesters’ triumph much more likely. 5 N' m; W. n0 ]$ C; _4 x ! e8 Z. [" l; tGiven this, what are the prospects for Russia’s current protest movement? So far, it has gotten many things right. It has focused on a single demand: fair elections. It has united liberals, communists,nationalists, and otherwise apolitical citizens in a broad coalition, despite these groups’ mutual disdain and a colossal potential for rifts.公仔箱論壇- t5 v; ?( l! l5 F( q
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Like the 2000 Serbian uprising against Slobodan Milošević, the Russian movement has produced an astonishing upsurge in grassroots creativity and political wit. A good example is the recent “nano-protest” in the Siberian city of Barnaul, where police officers were forced to write up a report on a group of Lego figures brandishing slogans. These toy protests have now spread to other cities.5.39.217.76) k/ L+ w6 K& m/ G( Z
To circumvent biased reporting on state television and bridge the huge distances between Russian cities, the protesters have used decentralized means of communication such as social networks. High-speed Internet connections have penetrated remote corners of Russia in recent years, and blogging services such as LiveJournal have been prominent for a decade. Thus, the Internet plays a more important role than it did in Iran’s abortive Green Revolution or during the Arab Spring.- W: `! c+ Q3 s, k
# P, y/ m- b: Y+ G6 f9 l: K* |TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Nonetheless, Russia’s size could become a liability for the protesters if things come to a head and,say, Putin refuses to accept a defeat in the March election. While there have been regular protests in cities from Stravropol in the south to Khabarovsk in the Far East, only Moscow and Saint Petersburg have seen true mass demonstrations. As in Serbiain 2000 or Ukraine in 2004, where demonstrations played out mainly in the capital cities, Russia’s metropolises have long been hotbeds of dissent. Unlike Serbia and Ukraine,however, provincial protesters would be unable to come to the rescue in case of a showdown.! N+ ~ z1 b/ k* L" v
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In the Philippines in 1986, Ferdinand Marcos’s tanks were stopped by nuns and small children. In the fall of 1989, East German soldiers joined their fellow citizens in the protests that brought down the Berlin Wall. But, during the same year in China,protesters in Beijing were crushed by troops from Inner Mongolia who didn’t understand Mandarin and had no sympathy for big-city dwellers.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb& ~" J4 O4 c3 G0 T. m" r( t* Z
* W( j6 v7 C4 t: y% _tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbWhile army units or riot squads (OMON) stationed in Moscow are too disgruntled by the recent police and military reforms to participate in a bloody clampdown, special-operations forces from the provinces, staffed with veterans of the Chechen war, might cherish the excitement of sticking it to the Moscow fat cats. Likewise, army officers from poorer regions are more grateful for the salary hike that Putin’s United Russia party announced, with much fanfare, shortly before the recent Duma election.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。' Y+ o" K) j3 {# u( r" X! c
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But, while some parts of the security apparatus might support an initial crackdown, violent repression would be difficult to sustain. That means that Putin would be well advised to heed the protesters’ demands and call new and fair parliamentary elections. If he opts for violent confrontation, the short-term outcome will be decided by the loyalty of the armed forces. His long-term fate, however, would be much grimmer.5.39.217.762 G- ^5 V1 W4 c7 o" h+ X 公仔箱論壇. y( j ]2 M3 S% ]+ Y( }3 o s# f9 Q
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Mischa Gabowitsch is a research fellow at the Einstein Forumin Potsdam, Germany.
