本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-12-13 08:14 AM 編輯 公仔箱論壇* C P2 s( s* Z
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb% @& @9 G* {2 a- C) p 英國將成「歐羅巴的孤兒」 盧峯tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb4 \; h& c# }# y* E8 F. Y5 ^3 d
4 I' {; w+ N, b 4 ]- {* ~8 B7 k- |0 V' r9 c5.39.217.76十九世紀後半葉英國政府對歐洲大陸奉行「光榮孤立」( Splendid Isolation)政策,避免介入歐洲列強的內部紛爭,不跟任何強國締結軍事同盟,盡力保持歐洲的勢力均衡。英國有這樣的選擇倒不是有甚麼宏大的構想或理念,只是歐洲大陸在十九世紀是亂事根源,不是大國之間交戰就是大國欺侮小國,又或是一場又一場的群眾革命,社會動盪。對英國來說,這樣一個地區自然該隔岸觀火,避之則吉。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5 @4 U8 U8 \& W+ ^' Y* U
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二○一一年,英國似乎要再來一次「光榮孤立」。歐盟及歐元區因主權債務問題烽煙四起,焦頭爛額,危急存亡之秋德法軸心推動歐盟及歐元區進一步融合,要求修改歐盟條約,加強統一各國的財政紀律,規定財政赤字超越生產總值百分之三的成員要受強制處分,以扭轉部份成員國先使未來錢的習慣,以減低再發生債務或金融危機的機會。對歐元及歐洲經濟一體化若即若離的英國既痛恨德法兩國不事先打招呼就出招,又不願放棄英鎊及倫敦金融城的位置,率先表明不接受德法的新計劃,反對歐盟在貨幣聯盟外再來財政政策規範化,更反對修改目前的條約。在歐盟二十七國中,英國是唯一反對德法建議的大國,令英國在歐盟處於空前孤立的狀態。可是,跟十九世紀不同的是,英國這次孤立沒有甚麼光榮,也沒有甚麼新世界可以成為新的地盤,反而可能成為「歐羅巴的孤兒」,找不到在世界事務的着力點,在全球政經格局中進一步邊緣化。& C3 ~: A) q, f* w' a1 Z
/ @& e" S( I4 q. x自從九十年代初的英國被迫退出歐洲滙率機制( EMS)後,貨幣一體化已成為英國政壇的禁忌,保守黨固然畏之如蛇蠍,執政十三年的工黨同樣口惠實不至,提出多個幾乎難以符合的條件以逃避加入歐元區的問題。德法意等歐盟國家則義無反顧,十年前同時放棄本身貨幣,組成貨真價實的貨幣聯盟,自此以後,歐盟內部已變相形成內外兩個圈。德法意荷等歐元區國家成為新的歐盟核心,在經濟、貨幣、資金管理等方面的合作越來越強,越來越有默契,領導人之間的個人關係更密切。英國、瑞典、挪威等不加入歐元區的歐盟成員則好像成了次級會員、很多重大的發展、政策都跟她們不相干,她們也失去發言權及影響力。挪威、瑞典之類的北歐小國向來不追求甚麼影響力,只要保持跟歐元區國家的經濟、貿易聯繫已足夠。英國卻是另一回事,直到九十年代中她仍是歐盟內足以制衡德法核心的大國,仍可以團結部份對進一步一體化有保留的國家反對歐盟進一步擴權。但自她拒絕加入歐元區後,英國在歐盟事務的影響力江河日下,德法再有甚麼新動作、新搞作也不會跟英國商量。而在今次英國再opt-out後,她的影響力只會進一步縮減,即使再有甚麼意見也會被當作耳邊風、風凉話。試想想人家為了保住歐元集體勒緊褲頭,交出主權,英國卻逍遙自在,歐元區國家怎麼還會把英國政府的意見當一回事呢?tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb D6 A4 V ]7 J& w
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-12-13 08:24 AM 編輯 公仔箱論壇& _) j' O F* q
4 |7 T: \8 R; O6 H- }* k The British “Non” Harold James5.39.217.76& H+ }! _5 |& W# D+ c
" E8 K; o# R. P! L3 K" _4 q , l) M# }% K/ p: q- h0 dAt the just-concluded European Union summit, British Prime Minister David Cameron vented decades of accumulated resentment stemming from his country’s relationship with Europe. Europeans were appalled at how the last-minute injection of finicky points about bank regulation could stymie what was supposed to be a breakthrough agreement on the regulation of EU countries’ budgets. Cameron’s supporters in Britain cheered and portrayed him as a new Winston Churchill, standing up to the threat of a vicious continental tyrant.5.39.217.76/ ?' D4 d5 P$ i% W7 z
o4 g! o# v; _! WThe United Kingdom’s view of Europe has always been both emotional and ambiguous. A Conservative government wanted to join the European Economic Community in the early 1960’s, but was rejected by French President Charles de Gaulle. The General mocked the British ambition with a rendition of Edith Piaf’s song about an English aristocrat left out on the street, “Ne pleurez pas, Milord.” In the end, Britain came in from the cold, but British leaders always felt that they were not quite welcome in the European fold.公仔箱論壇& m) @. r, T8 I1 F$ E
+ s4 W5 s( n H8 C: d5.39.217.76At two critical moments in the past, a British “no” had a decisive impact on European monetary developments. In 1978, German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt and French President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing proposed an exchange-rate arrangement – the European Monetary System (EMS) – to restore stable exchange rates in Europe. Initially, the Germans and the French negotiated trilaterally, with the UK, in meetings that were slow, cumbersome, and unproductive. " M# w* X+ b; r \" H" K公仔箱論壇5 v7 ]( u2 j. i1 o0 c2 X
In fact, the talks were sabotaged by British Prime Minister James Callaghan, who started conferring with US President Jimmy Carter about the challenge that the European plan posed to the United States, and how the Anglo-Saxons could respond to the continental threat. As he put it, according to the transcript of one of the phone calls, “with the strength of the German economy, it could be extremely serious, and I don’t know, Jimmy, how to obviate it.”5.39.217.766 O A Q; y" i" n6 ^' V- E0 W9 u
1 I4 {" y0 t0 I2 `1 rCallaghan and Carter were right to worry, but they should have worried about themselves rather than the Europeans. At the time, Britain and the US had much greater problems – more radically unstable government finances and feebler economic growth – which ensured the ineffectiveness of their efforts to impede the European negotiations. Once Britain dropped out of the talks, a bilateral Franco-German deal was easily arranged. The EMS became a device for improving French policy and opening up the French economy. * k9 \" D S$ t" O1 \; Z# iTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。0 b# z8 B2 S8 q+ L$ p4 B
The French position became a model for a new vision of how central banks could operate politically to enhance economic stability. Within a few years, France faced a major challenge when François Mitterrand’s experiment in radical socialist economics collapsed in 1983. When Jacques Delors, Mitterrand’s finance minister and the architect of his U-turn from nationalization and other socialist policies,later became EU Commission President, he was one of the most effective advocates of European monetary union.1 @. P9 T' c# j8 _
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The idea underlying the French strategy of tying the currency to German strength, the franc fort, was that it would limit or constrain domestic policy.Mitterrand had to wrestle with a fractious range of coalition partners. On the left, there were Communists, whom he wanted to marginalize politically, as well as Jacobin socialists who wanted a national path of economic development. Some of the most important industrial leaders also pleaded – in secret “night visits” to the presidential palace – for a national path involving devaluation and a weak currency.公仔箱論壇( O9 E, E% A. o
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The complex European way of constraining domestic opposition never appealed to British politicians. In the early 1990’s, Prime Minister John Major negotiated an opt-out from the Maastricht Treaty’s provisions on monetary union, but was proud that the pound was a stable and – as he saw it – central part of the EMS. In September 1992, a speculative attack on the pound led to Britain’s departure. # Y7 u2 E0 r" O8 K$ i- x" ~ $ x; {. V) R0 s! X' Q: N5 ?TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。The subsequent nine months saw a spectacular collapse of the European momentary order, as speculators worked over one country after another. Spain, Portugal, and the Scandinavian countries followed Italy and the UK out of the EMS, before France itself came under attack – the last of the falling dominos.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。7 c' R% \' {5 z9 ?7 \6 X
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。3 V, a8 ?1 L" m- t7 G9 }
The crises that wracked Europe from September1992 to July 1993 laid the foundation for the final drive to the establishment of European monetary union. Britain was left on the sidelines, and fiscal discipline was to be imposed externally. The major problem, of course, was that in some cases, discipline was not enforced. , T% f: k( r* S" Y) Y9 z8 T公仔箱論壇5.39.217.76; j, {1 F7 {( b/ T4 h! k* |. l2 T
As in 1978 and 1992, British obstructionism today may be a blessing in disguise for the rest of Europe. In particular,it opens the way to a Europe of variable geometry, in which only those countries willing to accept stability criteria will go forward with deeper integration. Institutionally, this may be more complex than an EU-wide treaty amendment, but the result can be tailored and crafted more appropriately to the real situations of rather diverse countries.1 \& s- e' R, L `. g8 T9 |* c; x
8 t+ M2 O! d/ ^: q& s1 [9 stvb now,tvbnow,bttvbBy contrast, for Britain, the legacy of its heroic defiance of Europe has been much bleaker. In both 1978 and 1992, the immediate aftermath was a substantial period of economic and political turmoil. Monetary shocks led to geopolitical irrelevance. * m1 l' \+ }& E4 g! ?5.39.217.765.39.217.76/ m7 k5 b/ z) r
Today, as in 1978, the UK and the US are in a parlous fiscal state, and schadenfreude about European problems is no substitute for embarking on a strenuous path of reform.公仔箱論壇; x' [( O( x# X
$ l/ i! `, F" u. e+ q; WTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Cameron, in particular, should not allow comparisons to Churchill go to his head. No one would include James Callaghan and John Major in the ranks of great British leaders. Cameron, too, could one day be remembered as a barely relevant and largely discredited figure.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb3 [* j/ L* N) m" @
, G# {" R' [/ ?% v公仔箱論壇公仔箱論壇 Q$ ?9 x5 r) c Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University and Professor of History at the European University Institute, Florence.He is the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle.作者: aa00 時間: 2011-12-13 09:06 AM
英國自私自利 歐債危機難解 TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( Y; G1 X4 y4 z
. N O/ p/ f; f9 U2 iTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。對於峰會達成的協議能否發揮作用，連財金經驗豐富的意大利總理蒙蒂，也表示自己有些問題仍未想通。卡梅倫礙於本土政治壓力在峰會上攤牌，洗濕了頭，他想在四面受敵的情況下維持英國在歐盟內的議價能力，似乎只能累鬥累，他質疑歐盟成員另簽新約加強財政紀律存有法律問題，不無弦外之音。. I2 G5 o' U T0 y
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+ F3 \2 _' g7 ^0 w3 W5.39.217.76歐盟另簽新約加強財政紀律，會否製造法律爭議，實在難說，怕只怕卡梅倫被逼得太緊，為紓緩本土的政治壓力，在這方面拉德法的後腿，屆時歐盟連給歐債危機止血也有困難，更遑論減緩歐洲的衰落。 0 O+ o7 c) A7 ]5 b 公仔箱論壇% e# `5 |8 g7 b% I( u
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* h6 Q* G7 S2 [對於歐盟來說，這種為一國利益“開后門”的情況是很難被允許的。因此法國總統薩科齊直言“我們不能接受這一點”。作為回應，英國則拒絕歐盟對《里斯本條約》進行修改，而這導致在歐盟中待了38年的英國面臨“被孤立”的尷尬境地。5.39.217.76+ H& F. o* t2 A( e) i8 a
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當然，卡梅倫也有充分的理由來為孤立狀態辯解。他稱英國希望歐元區國家聚在一起商討解決問題，但“我們只允許這在歐盟條約的框架內進行，因為這一條約能夠保護單一市場，以及英國的關鍵利益”。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。& p* l0 b) H \6 @4 a
