本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-12-13 08:24 AM 編輯 tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb& }5 T$ m6 Y) \6 T+ O
% f7 I4 h- ?& i$ y& U) i) ^- w0 K The British “Non” Harold Jamestvb now,tvbnow,bttvb3 p* O8 L4 D/ B5 S) @1 U
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At the just-concluded European Union summit, British Prime Minister David Cameron vented decades of accumulated resentment stemming from his country’s relationship with Europe. Europeans were appalled at how the last-minute injection of finicky points about bank regulation could stymie what was supposed to be a breakthrough agreement on the regulation of EU countries’ budgets. Cameron’s supporters in Britain cheered and portrayed him as a new Winston Churchill, standing up to the threat of a vicious continental tyrant. R/ A9 _% C2 ]) r: N& t5.39.217.76% ?8 [+ ^% v3 }. d* Z
The United Kingdom’s view of Europe has always been both emotional and ambiguous. A Conservative government wanted to join the European Economic Community in the early 1960’s, but was rejected by French President Charles de Gaulle. The General mocked the British ambition with a rendition of Edith Piaf’s song about an English aristocrat left out on the street, “Ne pleurez pas, Milord.” In the end, Britain came in from the cold, but British leaders always felt that they were not quite welcome in the European fold. " _- h# g5 x T- G8 P2 A9 Etvb now,tvbnow,bttvbtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb( S1 b4 G$ B2 j
At two critical moments in the past, a British “no” had a decisive impact on European monetary developments. In 1978, German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt and French President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing proposed an exchange-rate arrangement – the European Monetary System (EMS) – to restore stable exchange rates in Europe. Initially, the Germans and the French negotiated trilaterally, with the UK, in meetings that were slow, cumbersome, and unproductive. # A' _! F4 h& y1 x# E2 ~5 X 4 u ~' O3 N3 W S- B公仔箱論壇In fact, the talks were sabotaged by British Prime Minister James Callaghan, who started conferring with US President Jimmy Carter about the challenge that the European plan posed to the United States, and how the Anglo-Saxons could respond to the continental threat. As he put it, according to the transcript of one of the phone calls, “with the strength of the German economy, it could be extremely serious, and I don’t know, Jimmy, how to obviate it.”tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb( F- C: l3 B' ^8 `
) e) C5 d( C; l7 o3 X6 F- ?TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Callaghan and Carter were right to worry, but they should have worried about themselves rather than the Europeans. At the time, Britain and the US had much greater problems – more radically unstable government finances and feebler economic growth – which ensured the ineffectiveness of their efforts to impede the European negotiations. Once Britain dropped out of the talks, a bilateral Franco-German deal was easily arranged. The EMS became a device for improving French policy and opening up the French economy. ; b, P/ L: B6 A6 J$ q0 g: ^- n- dtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。4 `( v# W% v, N ~
The French position became a model for a new vision of how central banks could operate politically to enhance economic stability. Within a few years, France faced a major challenge when François Mitterrand’s experiment in radical socialist economics collapsed in 1983. When Jacques Delors, Mitterrand’s finance minister and the architect of his U-turn from nationalization and other socialist policies,later became EU Commission President, he was one of the most effective advocates of European monetary union. ) B8 D/ t6 m" ^7 u5 H/ \/ h5.39.217.76 $ q6 D+ `( n5 CThe idea underlying the French strategy of tying the currency to German strength, the franc fort, was that it would limit or constrain domestic policy.Mitterrand had to wrestle with a fractious range of coalition partners. On the left, there were Communists, whom he wanted to marginalize politically, as well as Jacobin socialists who wanted a national path of economic development. Some of the most important industrial leaders also pleaded – in secret “night visits” to the presidential palace – for a national path involving devaluation and a weak currency.公仔箱論壇5 H, }1 k p7 g! m% C
4 z% L1 d6 r: D公仔箱論壇The complex European way of constraining domestic opposition never appealed to British politicians. In the early 1990’s, Prime Minister John Major negotiated an opt-out from the Maastricht Treaty’s provisions on monetary union, but was proud that the pound was a stable and – as he saw it – central part of the EMS. In September 1992, a speculative attack on the pound led to Britain’s departure.6 j e* D3 ?1 D- @& @) s
, ]5 h7 W2 [1 U* CTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。The subsequent nine months saw a spectacular collapse of the European momentary order, as speculators worked over one country after another. Spain, Portugal, and the Scandinavian countries followed Italy and the UK out of the EMS, before France itself came under attack – the last of the falling dominos. . |: D3 @3 ?+ F, C$ h; X, B0 VTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 / v. c+ m( k6 o/ _The crises that wracked Europe from September1992 to July 1993 laid the foundation for the final drive to the establishment of European monetary union. Britain was left on the sidelines, and fiscal discipline was to be imposed externally. The major problem, of course, was that in some cases, discipline was not enforced. % n1 H* J3 R0 x+ `: }3 N $ B2 p+ o+ i0 }: ^/ T% j' l; O公仔箱論壇As in 1978 and 1992, British obstructionism today may be a blessing in disguise for the rest of Europe. In particular,it opens the way to a Europe of variable geometry, in which only those countries willing to accept stability criteria will go forward with deeper integration. Institutionally, this may be more complex than an EU-wide treaty amendment, but the result can be tailored and crafted more appropriately to the real situations of rather diverse countries. 5 _1 p- L: E+ G, |) mTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 v5 B4 v+ p+ y" b2 ]; x1 u% Y
By contrast, for Britain, the legacy of its heroic defiance of Europe has been much bleaker. In both 1978 and 1992, the immediate aftermath was a substantial period of economic and political turmoil. Monetary shocks led to geopolitical irrelevance.) F% x' A `* H# |5 }9 w. }
: U, R9 E6 g5 r) ?$ E6 STVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Today, as in 1978, the UK and the US are in a parlous fiscal state, and schadenfreude about European problems is no substitute for embarking on a strenuous path of reform.2 O7 X: e, Z# Z7 `: i8 I; R/ Z) L. c
' w& e+ |+ |- P( u& R* N6 r# rCameron, in particular, should not allow comparisons to Churchill go to his head. No one would include James Callaghan and John Major in the ranks of great British leaders. Cameron, too, could one day be remembered as a barely relevant and largely discredited figure.公仔箱論壇/ H0 h# n7 `- x$ M
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" k i4 p5 ]- h# P$ ]5.39.217.76Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University and Professor of History at the European University Institute, Florence.He is the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle.作者: aa00 時間: 2011-12-13 09:06 AM
$ [( I" j- i# i# a5.39.217.76被視為歐盟解除歐債危機最後機會之歐盟領袖峰會，非但未見減少市場疑慮，而且橫生枝節，英國首相卡梅倫懶理一眾歐元區和非歐元區歐盟成員的鄙視，以維護英國利益為由，反對修改歐盟條約，歐盟只能透過另行簽訂新條約加強財政紀律，德法兩國藉歐盟峰會達成一致協議淡化標普降級警告的如意算盤無法打響。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb3 R, b3 q0 M. K( l
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, i& I* D- Q8 z, O雖然卡梅倫在歐盟峰會上犯眾憎，但他回到英國後，料保守黨內疑歐派議員連連送上掌聲，盛讚其堅拒讓步的老虎狗精神。5.39.217.760 g. t$ ]7 ]/ d! V$ T' @3 b
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。& k) F' p" f) \/ ^
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事實上，歐盟將加強財政紀律寫進歐盟條約，未見對倫敦國際金融樞紐地位造成即時損害，卡梅倫要求歐盟進一步保障英國金融業界的利益，以換取英國支持修改歐盟條約，予人趁火打劫之感。 , g0 I4 G! }" i A! G$ c, I公仔箱論壇 0 B1 z0 {! Y1 r( E TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。& @; X, K, Q. P# U. p5 n
卡梅倫乘人之危換來剎那光輝，英國隨時得不償失。你做初一我做十五，在歐盟整體決策上，英國今後或進一步被其他成員國排擠，甚至出現英國愈是想維護本國金融服務業、愈被其他歐盟成員反對和阻撓的情況，也就是說，卡梅倫在不適當的時候提出不適當的要求，只會弄巧反拙。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, ~$ X' {# i" s0 r+ x4 K$ i4 u$ g
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自私自利的英國在歐盟內愈加孤立，對德法來說，這不是意味着她們毋須再跟英國客氣、可毫無保留在重大議題上跟英國唱反調、自行其是？德國總理默克爾也可能會阿Q地安慰自己，正因有卡梅倫阻頭阻勢，從直接修改歐盟條約，換為更便捷的另簽新約模式，歐債能及早止血，有助重獲市場信心。問題是，英國與德法各行其是，已與峰會營造團結的目標背道而馳，德法暗示自己才是贏家的言論，均是自欺欺人。 * V* {8 r( A7 V/ x5.39.217.76TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。1 m) `8 P( j* p: W' E0 @
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對於峰會達成的協議能否發揮作用，連財金經驗豐富的意大利總理蒙蒂，也表示自己有些問題仍未想通。卡梅倫礙於本土政治壓力在峰會上攤牌，洗濕了頭，他想在四面受敵的情況下維持英國在歐盟內的議價能力，似乎只能累鬥累，他質疑歐盟成員另簽新約加強財政紀律存有法律問題，不無弦外之音。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb0 V6 y1 `- s& u; d( g
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歐盟另簽新約加強財政紀律，會否製造法律爭議，實在難說，怕只怕卡梅倫被逼得太緊，為紓緩本土的政治壓力，在這方面拉德法的後腿，屆時歐盟連給歐債危機止血也有困難，更遑論減緩歐洲的衰落。 , i+ H3 F8 V9 e6 b 2 ?6 X2 H6 G8 M7 }& Q6 Z% e5.39.217.76 ; c1 x a4 P" r5 ?& |7 \1 t
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9 R6 \/ F8 f0 W+ X% o來源 / 版權所有： 《太陽報》 / 作者 tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb9 P; l7 N. F+ V U' D- C* d" M
(以上内容摘自或摘译自 其它媒体 / 作者 ，不代表發帖者观点)作者: kschow 時間: 2011-12-13 11:55 AM
孤立自然可以使英國在大西洋兩岸左右逢源，但卻很難讓英國獲得歐洲大陸的信任，尤其在危機時期這種利益分歧更容易凸顯。9日凌晨，歐盟領導人經過長達近10小時的馬拉松式談判后，終就歐元區新的財政協議達成一致，而這次習慣了孤立的英國發現自己這次是“被孤立”了。7 [3 X5 q" S. F' c
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在這次意圖解決歐元區主權債務危機的歐盟峰會上，德國和法國希望修改歐盟條約，加強歐元區財政一體化，規定嚴格的歐元區財政條款。但英國首相卡梅倫始終堅稱，修改歐盟條約“不符合英國的利益”。因為更加嚴格的監管，勢必會對英國賴以為經濟支柱的金融服務業產生負面影響。; k& g: z, [# v: C
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在倫敦金融城的壓力下，卡梅倫要求必須對英國利益加以保護，避免新的歐盟金融監管機構獲得更多權力，以此作為支持修改歐盟條約的前提條件，并提出要在協議中增加一個條款，使倫敦可以不受修改后的對金融服務監管的影響。5.39.217.76 f$ F" P* z" ^1 n6 N; r
$ J- k% \2 D: R4 D" ^+ ?2 D4 y8 wtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb對於歐盟來說，這種為一國利益“開后門”的情況是很難被允許的。因此法國總統薩科齊直言“我們不能接受這一點”。作為回應，英國則拒絕歐盟對《里斯本條約》進行修改，而這導致在歐盟中待了38年的英國面臨“被孤立”的尷尬境地。 C0 t. c. p8 u! A1 E* ~. B
