本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-12-13 08:17 AM 編輯 & {5 `0 u, j: E+ F1 |3 s1 A. x9 Y - D! L l$ ~* _* ?2 ?- MTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。卡梅倫的災難性決定 喬納森•鮑威爾 $ L3 c) L! {3 b$ Stvb now,tvbnow,bttvb, v9 B6 v1 V. _1 @% r9 N8 `
9 _' Y+ S5 B( O3 C- v) N" ~$ u. ^5.39.217.761955年，在歐洲經濟共同體問世之初，安東尼•艾登(Anthony Eden)領導的保守黨政府沒有經過深思熟慮，沖動地作出了置身其外的災難性決定。在那之后，英國用了多年時間，拼命想加入其中，卻屢遭拒絕，最后直到1972年才被接納。但那個時候已經太晚了，英國已無法對歐洲的格局產生分毫影響。從那以后，我們始終覺得自己在歐洲內是個身份尷尬的成員。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb( w( m. q, Z, C. S. m: |7 }
( w' ]% k$ U- p% d# Z56年后的今天，又一屆保守黨政府在沒有認真考慮過后果的情況下作出了一個災難性決定：拒不加入一項將在未來幾十年內決定歐洲發展大勢的條約。我們原本指望另外9個非歐元區國家與我們站在同一陣線上，組成一個類似於歐洲自由貿易聯盟(EFTA)的聯盟。但短短數小時內，這個聯盟就土崩瓦解了。與1955年之后的情形一樣，我們今后將不得不花上幾十年時間，力圖加入那項我們從一開始就應該加入的條約。而歐洲也將失去一支強大的經濟自由主義力量，更難抑制住其它許多成員國的集權主義傾向。公仔箱論壇' Q. m& L$ o* e( S' g
% b7 e3 R* ~- x) \5.39.217.76正如我們在托尼•布萊爾(Tony Blair)政府中發現的那樣，這種至關重要的決定可能並不起眼，人們並沒有充分完全意識到它們的重要性。上周五發生的事情，將成為本屆首相任期內的決定性時刻，而戴維•卡梅倫(David Cameron)甚至沒有認識到這樣的時刻已經來臨。 1 u/ I; ]2 w! U |5 W7 s; K5.39.217.76; W7 T7 i" \! G% `* l! R
我明白歐洲峰會的過程會有多麼坎坷。如果你想避免被排除在決策過程之外，就必須做好准備、施展密謀、建立同盟，還必須隨機應變。作為一個談判者，如果你無法承受亮明底牌的后果，出牌時就千萬別虛張聲勢﹔另外你也決不要沖動行事。但這兩種情況上周五似乎都出現了。說到卡梅倫如何讓自身陷入這樣的境地，除了這兩者，我實在想不出其它的解釋。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。! X, q7 x( m' J; L. j
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去參加本次峰會時，他似乎並無拒不加入那項條約的意思。理由他在會前就已經說過了，其中最重要的一點是，如此一來我們在決策過程中就仍可以說得上話。他后來花了兩個小時為他出席的新聞發布會做准備，這顯然表明：他當時並未預料到結果會變成這樣，而他倉促之間不得不為之尋找理由。 9 l- z4 U9 e5 [, N' p8 ]TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 9 ]/ ]/ F: s! ]$ l4 M; T' s+ F現在，由於這個沖動之舉，他在這一天榮登英國各右翼媒體的頭條位置，但其代價卻是，我們所有人在今后一二十年裡都將抱憾不已。 & h3 | G5 ], E3 K& H( tTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。8 o ]; l# C' J# d& K0 l& o
英國如今將被排除在涉及歐洲關鍵經濟政策的所有決策過程之外，這些決策過程將在擴大后的歐元集團中進行。但是，實際情況比這還要糟糕。我們還讓自己置身於無法對涉及英國的其它決策施加影響的境地。英國被排除在外的那個集團，將在歐盟(EU)舉行峰會之前自行開會達成一致立場。屆時，我們就隻能在涉及單一市場的議題上面對既成事實。從實質上說，我們將相當於沒有石油的挪威——既要遵循歐洲的決定，又不能對這些決定施加影響。當然，在某些議題上我們還能行使否決權。可是，現在涉及單一市場的多數議題都通過特定多數表決制(qualified majority voting)決定。如果一個成員國再三動用否決權阻撓決定通過，另外26個成員國能忍耐它多久呢？ 1 L1 y, H1 [' _7 Y公仔箱論壇 & a, M+ D, Z: x( E( T( [, y4 ltvb now,tvbnow,bttvb我對這種機制在實踐中的運作有過體驗。我曾於20世紀80年代在歐洲安全與合作會議(Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe)中擔任西方的談判代表之一。我們當時曾舉行歐洲經濟共同體分組會議，確定我們的立場。當時歐洲經濟共同體的12個成員國會持一致立場參與北約(NATO)的會議。美國、加拿大和土耳其大喊大叫、威脅恐嚇，卻不能動搖我們的一致立場。 , A' b* V1 C; g1 L: [# d# K " c O H. K; M9 V" H2 ^4 {7 lTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。英國歷屆政府（無論是保守黨政府還是工黨政府）都反對“雙速歐洲”，這是有原因的：我們不希望在自己身處的大洲被排除在權力之外。滑鐵盧戰役后的200年裡，英國為了在歐洲保有領導地位，付出了極大的努力。背離歐洲，就是背叛這段歷史。這件事似乎是，為了滿足某種短期利益（安撫80多名對歐洲持懷疑態度、威脅倒戈的保守黨后座議員），而犧牲了英國人民的長期利益。這些后座議員贏了——他們自己都沒料到會以這種方式勝出。他們希望舉行的公投現在已無必要，因為我們已經放棄了全面參與歐洲。 8 t* Q1 W% U8 S' Z 0 S4 X% [4 r- [! S. ^) g1 B0 ytvb now,tvbnow,bttvb這個災難性的決定有著極其嚴重的后果，因為我們現在連一個可以依靠的“特殊關系”都沒有了。像丘吉爾(Churchill)和羅斯福(FDR)、撒切爾夫人(Thatcher)和裡根(Reagan)、布萊爾和克林頓(Clinton)時代那樣的強有力的英美關系，如今已不復存在。英國傳統外交政策的兩根支柱，即英歐關系和英美關系，都被我們拋棄了。我不知道離開其中任何一根支柱，英國政府該怎樣讓英國立足於世界。英國政府也不知道。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。' y+ J# _, B3 z! M @* H* v1 u
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tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb* J2 |: ^5 h) D 喬納森•鮑威爾曾任英國外交官和前英國首相托尼•布萊爾的辦公室主任作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-12-13 08:18 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-12-13 08:24 AM 編輯 & F% C" C; G- m! |* b V3 jtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。/ o9 t# D( P" h- D t/ n6 u; L The British “Non” Harold James }7 L0 O, I/ Y2 b公仔箱論壇 # [, U( n7 N; B$ v) V& L1 w : W1 b" Z* Y8 [9 Etvb now,tvbnow,bttvbAt the just-concluded European Union summit, British Prime Minister David Cameron vented decades of accumulated resentment stemming from his country’s relationship with Europe. Europeans were appalled at how the last-minute injection of finicky points about bank regulation could stymie what was supposed to be a breakthrough agreement on the regulation of EU countries’ budgets. Cameron’s supporters in Britain cheered and portrayed him as a new Winston Churchill, standing up to the threat of a vicious continental tyrant.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb/ O! r; [3 x# O; [7 R
6 k! O9 U, n8 B3 s& z5.39.217.76The United Kingdom’s view of Europe has always been both emotional and ambiguous. A Conservative government wanted to join the European Economic Community in the early 1960’s, but was rejected by French President Charles de Gaulle. The General mocked the British ambition with a rendition of Edith Piaf’s song about an English aristocrat left out on the street, “Ne pleurez pas, Milord.” In the end, Britain came in from the cold, but British leaders always felt that they were not quite welcome in the European fold.$ i1 i1 ?2 a9 z; V6 b
8 h, _8 d9 `# V5 G; V( w1 iAt two critical moments in the past, a British “no” had a decisive impact on European monetary developments. In 1978, German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt and French President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing proposed an exchange-rate arrangement – the European Monetary System (EMS) – to restore stable exchange rates in Europe. Initially, the Germans and the French negotiated trilaterally, with the UK, in meetings that were slow, cumbersome, and unproductive.$ v$ U# R; Z0 p2 Q& ?9 r
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In fact, the talks were sabotaged by British Prime Minister James Callaghan, who started conferring with US President Jimmy Carter about the challenge that the European plan posed to the United States, and how the Anglo-Saxons could respond to the continental threat. As he put it, according to the transcript of one of the phone calls, “with the strength of the German economy, it could be extremely serious, and I don’t know, Jimmy, how to obviate it.” ( c( m0 T( p8 ?7 _. h% @5.39.217.76 5 q3 D1 w6 O+ s* t6 o* _/ p6 PCallaghan and Carter were right to worry, but they should have worried about themselves rather than the Europeans. At the time, Britain and the US had much greater problems – more radically unstable government finances and feebler economic growth – which ensured the ineffectiveness of their efforts to impede the European negotiations. Once Britain dropped out of the talks, a bilateral Franco-German deal was easily arranged. The EMS became a device for improving French policy and opening up the French economy.0 K$ ~* m4 Y# I8 x0 D+ O g U6 U
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The French position became a model for a new vision of how central banks could operate politically to enhance economic stability. Within a few years, France faced a major challenge when François Mitterrand’s experiment in radical socialist economics collapsed in 1983. When Jacques Delors, Mitterrand’s finance minister and the architect of his U-turn from nationalization and other socialist policies,later became EU Commission President, he was one of the most effective advocates of European monetary union.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb: _/ ] y( U+ u! x. j2 l
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。1 C0 k6 t* P5 t4 P9 @ n
The idea underlying the French strategy of tying the currency to German strength, the franc fort, was that it would limit or constrain domestic policy.Mitterrand had to wrestle with a fractious range of coalition partners. On the left, there were Communists, whom he wanted to marginalize politically, as well as Jacobin socialists who wanted a national path of economic development. Some of the most important industrial leaders also pleaded – in secret “night visits” to the presidential palace – for a national path involving devaluation and a weak currency. ! G) N1 G1 i* N: JTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 * }5 ^& C( l( T6 g& H0 A' D' fTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。The complex European way of constraining domestic opposition never appealed to British politicians. In the early 1990’s, Prime Minister John Major negotiated an opt-out from the Maastricht Treaty’s provisions on monetary union, but was proud that the pound was a stable and – as he saw it – central part of the EMS. In September 1992, a speculative attack on the pound led to Britain’s departure.; k, N+ x0 B8 {$ T" t2 b/ O! V
& H, C0 A& c+ K. s! ]6 @The subsequent nine months saw a spectacular collapse of the European momentary order, as speculators worked over one country after another. Spain, Portugal, and the Scandinavian countries followed Italy and the UK out of the EMS, before France itself came under attack – the last of the falling dominos. ) h0 U2 R! o4 D: v3 v7 O# l 0 T4 X& E* E* f9 D7 B: W! C公仔箱論壇The crises that wracked Europe from September1992 to July 1993 laid the foundation for the final drive to the establishment of European monetary union. Britain was left on the sidelines, and fiscal discipline was to be imposed externally. The major problem, of course, was that in some cases, discipline was not enforced.8 z- I* P% Q" ^; [
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As in 1978 and 1992, British obstructionism today may be a blessing in disguise for the rest of Europe. In particular,it opens the way to a Europe of variable geometry, in which only those countries willing to accept stability criteria will go forward with deeper integration. Institutionally, this may be more complex than an EU-wide treaty amendment, but the result can be tailored and crafted more appropriately to the real situations of rather diverse countries.公仔箱論壇3 e' y6 P- F* @) z
* N# a/ W, o6 V3 K3 j6 oBy contrast, for Britain, the legacy of its heroic defiance of Europe has been much bleaker. In both 1978 and 1992, the immediate aftermath was a substantial period of economic and political turmoil. Monetary shocks led to geopolitical irrelevance.% w W, x7 t5 x- M
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Today, as in 1978, the UK and the US are in a parlous fiscal state, and schadenfreude about European problems is no substitute for embarking on a strenuous path of reform. * E" l2 v- B$ K0 V8 [4 W公仔箱論壇 * C! c) g6 G! ~! U' _Cameron, in particular, should not allow comparisons to Churchill go to his head. No one would include James Callaghan and John Major in the ranks of great British leaders. Cameron, too, could one day be remembered as a barely relevant and largely discredited figure.9 e0 T p; x& C) K# R
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。' s/ U+ N& O0 n4 g) D+ g
* C' c. m+ ]+ [3 X8 sHarold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University and Professor of History at the European University Institute, Florence.He is the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle.作者: aa00 時間: 2011-12-13 09:06 AM
英國自私自利 歐債危機難解 ) O# n$ P! u' G2 d( I: s' v4 {
! f. e+ k+ O( r4 ^! f; r( P* @. b公仔箱論壇 y/ H/ K/ p/ Y" f: ^7 ttvb now,tvbnow,bttvb被視為歐盟解除歐債危機最後機會之歐盟領袖峰會，非但未見減少市場疑慮，而且橫生枝節，英國首相卡梅倫懶理一眾歐元區和非歐元區歐盟成員的鄙視，以維護英國利益為由，反對修改歐盟條約，歐盟只能透過另行簽訂新條約加強財政紀律，德法兩國藉歐盟峰會達成一致協議淡化標普降級警告的如意算盤無法打響。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。* u4 |/ S# n g2 d, G3 f6 s3 ]
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TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。& Z: M4 ~ D- O: S5 ` h
雖然卡梅倫在歐盟峰會上犯眾憎，但他回到英國後，料保守黨內疑歐派議員連連送上掌聲，盛讚其堅拒讓步的老虎狗精神。; D/ c1 L) x# W: ?' X" A
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事實上，歐盟將加強財政紀律寫進歐盟條約，未見對倫敦國際金融樞紐地位造成即時損害，卡梅倫要求歐盟進一步保障英國金融業界的利益，以換取英國支持修改歐盟條約，予人趁火打劫之感。公仔箱論壇0 y! i" a0 ?" x% i
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。" U1 v- M' H7 A. Z* x% N
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卡梅倫乘人之危換來剎那光輝，英國隨時得不償失。你做初一我做十五，在歐盟整體決策上，英國今後或進一步被其他成員國排擠，甚至出現英國愈是想維護本國金融服務業、愈被其他歐盟成員反對和阻撓的情況，也就是說，卡梅倫在不適當的時候提出不適當的要求，只會弄巧反拙。5.39.217.76* D% W& [" _& S0 S3 h
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( U- M) _7 [: L- C! z0 u
