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美國國務卿希拉里破天荒訪問緬甸，並會見反對派領袖昂山素姬，實際上兩人都是緬甸當局的棋子，塑造開放形象，同時維持與中國的密切關係，一切都按緬甸預定的劇本進行。5.39.217.76* e. e) Q8 |) l8 ^/ a
0 {. F9 I7 `+ p1 [, _4 Q; u5.39.217.76那麼，難道是緬甸政府不重視希拉里的到訪嗎？TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。$ `0 s. F) M# w4 T0 ] k5 r
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當然不是，但他們最重視的，是將希拉里往訪，以及昂山素姬同意與政府合作的訊息傳播出去。不論希拉里也好，昂山素姬也好，都是緬甸政府在這一場政治大戲中的棋子。 - Z6 u8 h' j& L) b公仔箱論壇 % d) I' o1 B4 \3 \TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。外界如果以為緬甸自此後就會變成民主乖寶寶，或者如美國所期待，離棄中國而投懷別抱（美國），恐怕就太天真了。實際上這齣戲至今為止，是完全按照已隱身幕後的緬甸軍頭，特別是丹瑞大將所預定的劇本和進程演出。登盛的貼身顧問之一奈金納最近就對彭博社指出，緬甸的目標是三贏（緬甸、中國、美國），而且絕不會以犧牲中國的利益來達成。這就讓人想起緬甸前一陣子擱置中資密松大壩的「驚人之舉」。說是「驚人之舉」，因為大家都詫異於緬甸為了「民主」，居然敢於得罪它的最堅強支持者││中國。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。. t4 c6 b8 k9 A% s. V5 |9 B/ w
( M4 t9 l5 K/ y3 D: i# w5 j" K: X0 ^( J實則擱置密松大壩也是戲碼之一，甚至是中國也樂於配合演出的戲碼。緬甸擱置密松大壩的理由是前所未聞的「這個政府是人民選出的，所以我們一定要順應民意」，完全符合西方世界呼籲緬甸走向民主，也完全對了美國希望離間中、緬關係的味。但真正分析起來，密松大壩固然規模可觀，也僅是中國在緬甸龐大投資的一小部分而已，而且只有密松大壩有民眾抗爭的問題，於是就雀屏中選了。奈金納就明確表示，擱置密松大壩絕不至於影響中、緬關係。 P/ _4 @: d( G3 H
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密松大壩事件發生之後，中方僅表示關切，並沒有任何進一步的說法和行動，已可見一斑。再從實際角度觀察，美國對緬甸制裁了二十多年，但是中國不但在經濟上力挺，在國際上也是緬甸的堅強支持者，全緬甸的外資，中國、香港佔了近百分之六十，美國僅佔不到百分之一，緬甸會為了美國得罪、犧牲中國？ ; ~7 e" g% C4 }8 s. tTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( x0 Y6 M G( T' @& n
中國外交部發言人洪磊十二月一日在北京的新聞發布會上表示，中國樂見緬甸和西方國家改善及加強關係。奈金納也表示，中國並非虛情假意，而是真心希望西方國家能解除對緬甸的制裁，因為一個富裕的緬甸，符合中國利益，如果緬甸富裕起來，也將帶動雲南起飛。中國石油公司現在正在興建攸關重要、從雲南穿過緬甸直達印度洋的油氣管。 & X* q! z/ p. F+ }: Jtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。/ C4 L$ }* d" L
至於昂山素姬部分。緬甸去年十一月的大選，已經成功把昂山素姬及其領導的「全國民主聯盟（全民盟）」排除在外而建立起完全由軍方掌握的政府及國會。整個態勢就是，如果昂山素姬或「全民盟」仍然像過去一樣鐵板一塊，那就永遠沒機會玩了。這也是為什麼去年大選之後昂山素姬獲釋，儘管她一再表示願意跟軍政府接觸，但丹瑞大將始終當她透明，把她晾在一邊的原因。就是在這種氛圍之下，緬甸當局開始對昂山素姬釋出善意，終至由登盛親自接見、會談。他們談了什麼？至今諱莫如深，但是素姬自後就表示對登盛的改革誠意有信心，對於西方制裁緬甸這件事，甚至於出現大翻轉的「我一直支持美國與緬甸接觸」的說法。8 X* `& }- n3 |" O
p! P2 A$ Z8 m; e) p! @5.39.217.76對於素姬的轉變，一九九六年緬甸上一次大規模學生運動的領導人妙延琅添可能說得比較符合實際。他斬釘截鐵地表示，緬甸抗議示威的時代已經結束了，他已和在獄中結交的同志決定組成一個鬆散的民運組織聯盟，支持昂山素姬，開始在體制內活動。他說：「打不過對方，就加入到對方行列中去吧！」換句話說，與其說是緬甸政府讓步，倒不如說是昂山素姬讓步。 ' D4 d- g* K. y( b* m! A+ W, q( Q! U: h2 o s
素姬在會見希拉里之後說了一句可能是很重要的話，就是「有了我們（指她和美國）攜手合作推動緬甸走向民主，就不太可能再走回頭路」。這應該是素姬的期望，也是她的擔心。因為她太明白，如果情勢不利，緬甸絕對可能走回頭路。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb) B! D4 L! ?0 N D' g
4 o$ w9 `' R2 K1 qtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb「全民盟」現在已經摩拳擦掌，準備參加四十八個國會議席補選，昂山素姬本人也將親自在仰光披掛上陣，開始在「體制內」參加遊戲。 美國的接觸，素姬的參與，都是換穿西裝的緬甸軍頭要的「背書」，現在也都如願了。但是素姬應該也不會忘記，她領導「全民盟」在一九九零年贏得壓倒性大選，當時的軍政府悍然不交出政權，反而多次將她軟禁，去年大選前，更公然宣布一九九零年那次大選無效。公仔箱論壇: m6 g, P$ F- k& Y$ ?) C# E1 }
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現在緬甸政府所有的控制都已到位，釋出一些議席給素姬陣營，其實是不能不接受的態勢。從一九九零年到現在，二十一年的光陰過去了，素姬除了名譽，什麼也沒爭取到，配合演出，其實也很無奈。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb+ H! d) _( I. V9 H- \6 y5 V
; W) f! F9 W" F+ `8 Y 作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-12-9 07:53 AM
中美緬上演“三國演義” 鄭浩 7 j' M( t, y" [9 t5 Ztvb now,tvbnow,bttvbTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。7 \3 u+ }7 Y: W9 [1 R b
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-12-9 07:58 AM 編輯 $ v' [. Q/ U: X( J1 N, O 3 V3 V+ k; a$ c$ W$ r* d2 Ztvb now,tvbnow,bttvbBurmese Days Shashi Tharoor( |$ E7 L5 {1 c2 Z( ^) H' ?
0 K; x8 Y: r$ LTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s recent visit to Myanmar (Burma),noted largely for a memorable photo opportunity with a wan but smiling Aung San Suu Kyi, signaled a significant change in the geopolitics surrounding a land that has faced decades of isolation, sanctions, and widespread condemnation for its human-rights violations. & i" D8 [- ?) [9 O9 gtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。# X' { Q8 }+ W7 Z( e) y. Z$ u5 j
Twenty-one years ago, after Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy(NLD) swept a general election, the results were annulled, the party’s leaders and workers were incarcerated or exiled, and two decades of ruthless – and remarkably opaque – military rule followed. This year has witnessed political opening, the release of several prominent political prisoners, and evidence of self-assertion by the nominally civilian government (headed by a former general, Thien Sein). Suu Kyi’s announcement of her intention to contest a by-election to the new parliament offers a glimmer of hope that democrats could use the fledgling political process to create something resembling genuine representative government. 6 U$ j! z$ _8 Z8 ITVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( H0 B8 D' e7 @( q2 S3 N' [$ H2 l
Burma’s military rulers are cynically hoping to use Suu Kyi’s participation in the parliamentary process to bolster the illusion of freedom while continuing to exercise real control. But such exercises in “managed democratization” – in places as different as Iran, Indonesia, and the Soviet Union – have often surprised their would-be manipulators. It is clearly in the interests of both India and the United States to seize this opportunity. While China has always been much more comfortable dealing with a military regime, India’s embrace of the junta has been more reluctant, based on reasons of geography rather than shared ideals. - ?3 D4 i+ {4 x. e; c' [ # E4 _2 K4 B! V8 ^8 |: sWhen the generals in Rangoon (Yangon) suppressed a popular uprising in 1988, overturned the NLD’s overwhelming electoral victory,shot students, and arrested the new democratically elected leaders, India’s government initially reacted as most Indians would have wanted. For many years, India was unambiguously on the side of democracy, freedom, and human rights in Burma –not only rhetorically, like the regime’s Western critics, but also in more tangible ways. It offered asylum to fleeing students, allowed them to operate their resistance movement within India (with some financial help), and supported a pro-democratic newspaper and a radio station.5.39.217.761 V6 [: O7 O& V: V3 ]
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Then reality intruded. India’s strategic rivals, China and Pakistan, began to cultivate the Burmese generals. Major economic and geopolitical concessions were offered to both suitors. The Chinese even began developing a port on the Burmese coast, far closer to Calcutta than to Canton. And the junta’s generals began providing safe havens and arms to a motley assortment of anti-India rebels that would wreak havoc in the country’s Northeastern states and retreat to sanctuaries in newly renamed Myanmar. 0 [( c- S8 _: x2 x& v - f/ e% q, I' ~Four of India’s politically sensitive Northeastern states have international borders with Myanmar. But the key development was the discovery of large natural-gas deposits in Burma, which would not be available to an India deemed hostile to the regime. India realized that its rivals were gaining ground in its backyard, while it was losing out on new economic opportunities. The price of pursuing a moral foreign policy became too high.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb# e, {) Z: g- Z5 h- y+ K8 E4 c
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So India turned 180degrees. The increasingly forlorn resistance operations based on Indian territory were shut down. And India sweetened the generals’ tea by providing both military assistance and intelligence support in their never-ending battles against their own rebels. India had gone from standing up for democracy to aiding and enabling the military regime. As I wrote at the time, “India’s policy may be governed by the head rather than the heart, but in the process we are losing a little bit of our soul.”# ^3 W0 p1 E6 I( ^- A6 ^
. n' Z1 W0 |. fYet, paradoxically, Myanmar’s gradual opening following the 2011 elections and the installation of Thien Sein as president may offer India some measure of vindication. As the new regime released political prisoners, permitted freedom of movement to the detained Suu Kyi, and even questioned the environmental and economic impact of a big Chinese dam project in the country’s north, Western critics began to acknowledge that genuine change might be on the way. Countries like India that had maintained links with the junta and gently prized open its clenched fist may well have achieved more than those whose threats, bluster, and sanctions had merely hardened the general’s stance.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。; t- ]; P4 t5 o& ?3 ]' H
3 u- Z, v+ y; w6 `" {5 l) ]In canceling a $3.6 billion Myitsone hydro-electric project (90% of whose electricity would have been exported to China), the Burmese government surprised most observers, even though Chinese analysts were quick to express understanding of the government’s desire not to be seen as wholly subservient to a much more powerful neighbor. But the signal is clear: Myanmar is not a Chinese vassal state, and is willing to diversify its foreign relations. : v& p& `6 i" Z: S5.39.217.76 0 d5 t' h! j& _6 ~- gTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。It is in Burma’s interests to have more than one suitor wooing it; offsetting one neighbor against another is a time-honored diplomatic practice. Though China’s engagement dwarfs India’s,Myanmar-India bilateral trade reached almost $1.1 billion in 2010-2011, and India is now Myanmar’s fourth-largest trading partner, after Thailand,Singapore, and China, accounting for 70% of the country’s agricultural exports.9 L9 n; g2 R. w5 R1 | W. o
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Economics can always open political doors. “That Myanmar could defy the Chinese,” wrote Indian scholar Sreeram Chaulia, “is being seen as a sign that political space exists for the US to work as a facilitator of the democratization process in Myanmar.” Clinton’s visit brought confirmation that India has been playing a quiet but effective role in promoting greater engagement with the Burmese. & t( V( P, w" n% Y/ ~0 m. c5.39.217.76 0 q& |( e' ?! |: gIndia cannot and should not seek to outdo China in appeasing the military junta. Its natural instincts lie with the Burmese democrats, Suu Kyi, and the former students for whom it has, over the years, shown its support. With the US signaling its willingness to take Thein Sein’s political openness at face value, the stage is set for the region’s democracies, especially India, to open Burma’s windows to the world. China will be watching closely.( g7 ^8 O7 Q& a( o1 P0 t2 R8 S: h
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。3 ?( Z5 J* W9 e8 j; @
+ e, O: G, T- R& m. q Shashi Tharoor, a former Indian Minister of State for External Affairs and UN Under-Secretary General, is a member of India’s parliament and the author of a dozen books, including India from Midnight to the Millennium and Nehru: the Invention of India.
