& @2 T/ C) S) U' k& L公仔箱論壇比如說，雖然英國沒有加入歐元區，但歐元區佔英國總出口額的47%，因此，假如歐元區解體，英國的企業和銀行不可能不受影響。“好的風險管理意味著為那些小概率但后果嚴重的事件做准備，這進而意味著我們不得忽略某些國家無序脫離歐元區的可能性。”英國金融服務管理局(FSA)高級官員安德魯•貝利(Andrew Bailey)最近表示，“這種情形會不會發生，我不發表意見﹔但我們必須將其納入應急規劃的范圍。” - y$ g# I* {1 k" \/ \" C. Z) |tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb ]! ~! h8 ^/ g9 {9 F* z2 |上月，德國旅游公司途易(TUI)泄露了秘密：該公司証實，鑒於希臘可能主動或被動脫離歐元區，它已經要求希臘的酒店業主簽署新的合同。根據經過修訂的合同，為了防范匯率風險，途易可向酒店業主支付“新德拉克馬”或希臘政府用以代替歐元的任何其他貨幣。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, [: V( A5 q) ^$ a! I) M( t
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希臘酒店業主聯盟Sete的主席安德烈亞斯•安德烈亞迪斯(Andreas Andreadis)表示，他建議聯盟成員“忽略這一請求，因為這是一個假設性的問題”。安德烈雅迪斯還是酒店運營商Sani的首席執行官。他補充道：“我們沒有針對歐元區解體的應急計劃。”公仔箱論壇4 n E4 \% D/ k
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。/ q$ G m! \/ H- \8 s; d# Q
擬訂精確計劃幾乎是不可能的，因為就成員國退出歐元區而言，既無先例，歐盟法律也無既定程序可依。但是，上月在法國戛納，公開討論歐元區解體這個禁忌，已被德國總理安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)和法國總統尼古拉•薩科齊(Nicolas Sarkozy)打破。此前希臘總理喬治•帕潘德裡歐(George Papandreou)宣布，打算把最新國際紓困計劃、或者希臘是否留在歐盟的前途問題交由全民公投。默克爾和薩科齊在憤怒之下首次提出，有朝一日希臘可能不再是歐元區的成員國。帕潘德裡歐之后很快放棄了公投提議，並被迫辭去了總理職務。公仔箱論壇% k' f$ h) S3 i6 m8 O
5 U, [1 P% D. S. ?+ U7 R# S* o6 e' U5.39.217.76這一連串事件發生僅幾天后，日本大型銀行野村証券(Nomura)進一步打破了這個禁忌，該行發表面向客戶的研究論文《歐元區解體帶來的匯率風險：法律篇》。一些深諳金融市場運作的律師研究了這樣一個問題：歐元區解體對於根據各國不同的法律制度發行的歐元債務會有怎樣的影響。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。7 _2 ^- ]+ k ~
# y$ w0 ~; F- L* N1 D% i+ DTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。往昔欠下的巨額債務並不能通過減少當下公共部門的預算來減少。這樣做只會適得其反，使經濟更為衰退。歐洲的領導人明白這一點。他們知道歐洲需要經濟增長。但是與其去解決問題，尋求經濟增長的方式，還不如喋喋不休地去指責前幾任政府的失職。對於說教者而言這是個讓人滿意的行為，但是這並不會解決歐洲的問題，當然也拯救不了歐元。 ! H( T! h# e8 stvb now,tvbnow,bttvb ' m! ~4 E' H8 A+ G公仔箱論壇+ ^7 Y3 ?. d1 b2 M4 {/ v
What Can Save the Euro? Joseph E.Stiglitz ~8 R* _8 r" C5 itvb now,tvbnow,bttvb+ [* [. R+ {9 y1 v. i% m+ Q/ p, ~
6 [$ r k% r8 K2 w* |Just when it seemed that things couldn’t get worse,it appears that they have. Even some of the ostensibly “responsible” members of the eurozone are facing higher interest rates. Economists on both sides of the Atlantic are now discussing not just whether the euro will survive, but how to ensure that its demise causes the least turmoil possible. % F6 H, e5 ~6 @9 M; f7 Z. B公仔箱論壇 6 Y9 X @/ \) @; Y) WIt is increasingly evident that Europe’s political leaders, for all their commitment to the euro’s survival, do not have a good grasp of what is required to make the single currency work. The prevailing view when the euro was established was that all that was required was fiscal discipline– no country’s fiscal deficit or public debt, relative to GDP, should be too large. But Ireland and Spain had budget surpluses and low debt before the crisis, which quickly turned into large deficits and high debt. So now European leaders say that it is the current-account deficits of the eurozone’s member countries that must be kept in check.9 H, ?$ g Z$ o* U
% t2 E* h/ w9 yIn that case, it seems curious that, as the crisis continues, the safe haven for global investors is the United States, which has had an enormous current-account deficit for years. So, how will the European Union distinguish between “good” current-account deficits – a government creates a favorable business climate, generating inflows of foreign direct investment – and “bad”current-account deficits? Preventing bad current-account deficits would require far greater intervention in the private sector than the neoliberal and single-market doctrines that were fashionable at the euro’s founding would imply.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。; \' [( F- x: o; t9 W1 P3 r
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In Spain,for example, money flowed into the private sector from private banks. Should such irrational exuberance force the government, willy-nilly, to curtail public investment? Does this mean that government must decide which capital flows –say into real-estate investment, for example – are bad, and so must be taxed or otherwise curbed? To me, this makes sense, but such policies should be anathema to the EU’s free-market advocates.5.39.217.76 |7 r7 J. e* D- Q
5 R8 ?5 I' h* L/ N x3 C* l, UTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。The quest for a clear, simple answer recalls the discussions that have followed financial crises around the world. After each crisis, an explanation emerges, which the next crisis shows to be wrong, or at least inadequate. The 1980’s Latin American crisis was caused by excessive borrowing; but that could not explain Mexico’s1994 crisis, so it was attributed to under-saving. 1 |/ |7 ?0 c, D+ o) I& `4 G/ ytvb now,tvbnow,bttvb" Y e( e: ~3 l/ {" f
Then came East Asia,which had high savings rates, so the new explanation was “governance.”But this, too, made little sense, given that the Scandinavian countries – which have the most transparent governance in the world – had suffered a crisis a few years earlier.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。1 f3 B; U- A+ r
7 F @+ F7 U8 t& L5 {5.39.217.76There is, interestingly, a common thread running through all of these cases, as well as the 2008 crisis: financial sectors behaved badly and failed to assess creditworthiness and manage risk as they were supposed to do.' l4 y- s( ]9 \) j& u3 B
+ }* t) Q* n, j% D% a4 ^0 X+ f! N公仔箱論壇These problems will occur with or without the euro.But the euro has made it more difficult for governments to respond. And the problem is not just that the euro took away two key tools for adjustment – the interest rate and the exchange rate – and put nothing in their place, or that the European Central Bank’s mandate is to focus on inflation, whereas today’s challenges are unemployment, growth, and financial stability. Without a common fiscal authority, the single market opened the way to tax competition – a race to the bottom to attract investment and boost output that could be freely sold throughout the EU. & q6 j: \/ R+ {8 nTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 ) w7 _: e1 h9 i0 S0 W: bMoreover, free labor mobility means that individuals can choose whether to pay their parents’ debts: young Irish can simply escape repaying the foolish bank-bailout obligations assumed by their government by leaving the country. Of course, migration is supposed to be good,as it reallocates labor to where its return is highest. But this kind of migration actually undermines productivity.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb+ ?5 X$ I( s' E) ^" H% j
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Migration is, of course, part of the adjustment mechanism that makes America work as a single market with a single currency. Even more important is the federal government’s role in helping states that face, say, high unemployment,by allocating additional tax revenue to them – the so-called “transfer union”so loathed by many Germans.4 ^( \* w& Y2 h9 i! P: M$ x) X
7 J7 m1 ~! @+ ~ U4 v# Xtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbBut the US is also willing to accept the depopulation of entire states that cannot compete. (Some point out that this means that America’s corporations can buy senators from such states at a lower price.) But are European countries with lagging productivity willing to accept depopulation?Alternatively, are they willing to face the pain of “internal” devaluation, a process that failed under the gold standard and is failing under the euro?5.39.217.761 k0 u! i; S3 k8 n, f8 A
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。8 t" q: g) x C
Even if those from Europe’s northern countries are right in claiming that the euro would work if effective discipline could be imposed on others (I think they are wrong), they are deluding themselves with amorality play. It is fine to blame their southern compatriots for fiscal profligacy,or, in the case of Spain and Ireland,for letting free markets have free reign, without seeing where that would lead.But that doesn’t address today’s problem: huge debts, whether a result of private or public miscalculations, must be managed within the euro framework. 9 r1 d# h$ y* s0 A% r5.39.217.76 ; p/ X4 U) K% r4 w/ L( y% F公仔箱論壇Public-sector cutbacks today do not solve the problem of yesterday’s profligacy; they simply push economies into deeper recessions. Europe’s leaders know this. They know that growth is needed. But, rather than deal with today’s problems and find a formula for growth, they prefer to deliver homilies about what some previous government should have done. This may be satisfying for the sermonizer, but it won’t solve Europe’s problems – and it won’t save the euro. # [2 @8 K1 e( {% `5.39.217.765.39.217.768 F% u6 O; q8 D! F1 u1 U
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。4 d6 [' R8 U9 n2 Z Joseph E. Stiglitz is University Professor at Columbia University, a Nobel laureate in economics, and the author of Freefall:Free Markets and the Sinking of the Global Economy. & g. w0 n5 F1 n( |' P3 m X; Z; ITVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-12-6 08:46 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-12-6 08:51 AM 編輯 6 F; I/ R/ O8 c4 R d3 ?公仔箱論壇2 D% T3 M8 }& s% s8 F) M The Poetry of the Euro Harold James公仔箱論壇- x1 ]/ o8 A$ w! ]
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The purpose of creating a common currency has been largely and surprisingly forgotten in crisis-torn Europe.Instead, there seem to be more pressing concerns: gloomy speculation about the eurozone’s impending collapse and desperate attempts to find institutional fixes to its extensive governance problems.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb% F7 @* W1 q6 u% N* ^1 B2 \ V, p
+ I0 f/ v [+ N公仔箱論壇But the euro was not just the outcome of an idiosyncratic quest to reduce the wear on pockets stuffed with odd national coins, or to facilitate intra-European trade. The bold European experiment reflected a new attitude about what money should do, as well as how it should be managed. In opting for a “pure” form of money, created by a central bank independent of national authority, Europeans self-consciously flew in the face of what had become the dominant monetary tradition. 3 ?8 e R3 t; ~# i) ^6 s' O# ^* TTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 O. |- X9 n! YIn the twentieth century, the creation of money –paper money – was usually thought to be the domain of the state. Money could be issued because governments had the power to define the unit of account in which taxes should be paid. This tradition went back well before paper, or fiat,currencies. For many centuries, even while metallic money circulated, the task of defining units of account – livres tournois, marks, gulden, florins, or dollars – remained a task of the state (or of those with political power). , h% e0 b2 j+ ]* ~TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。公仔箱論壇5 h0 W8 c, {) g2 \# D
Abuse of this role, with governments addressing excessive debt by inflating it away, was deeply destructive of political order in the first half of the twentieth century. After World War II, the liberal politicians most committed to European federalism saw this point clearly. The economist, central-bank governor, finance minister, and president of the Italian Republic, Luigi Einaudi, pleaded the case in the immediate aftermath of the war: “If the European federation takes away from the individual states the power of running public works through the printing press, and limits them to expenses that are financed solely by taxes and voluntary loans, it will by that act alone have accomplished a great work.”' E; r( r. M: V& U& G0 {, [7 r
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。; \, T0 |% @0 h8 k) B S% R( A
But monetary abuse is no less dangerous in political systems with multi-layered authority, and in the past often led to the breakup of federal states. That is because inflation is not a benign cure for economic ills, in which beneficent and stimulatory effects are spread equally over the entire region under the inflationary monetary authority. Making inflation depends on the central bank’s decision to monetize specific debt instruments.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb9 T U# H5 Z' e. N5 G
8 N: L+ `3 D" `$ I7 P公仔箱論壇After all, the monetary authority never decides simply to convert every obligation into money. Instead, it decides that some industries, banks, or political authorities need to be sustained for the general good. Those industries, banks, and political authorities that are not so privileged are inevitably resentful, and view the central bank’s actions as an abuse of power. In federal systems, in particular, those businesses and political authorities far removed from the center are most likely to be excluded from the monetary stimulus and hence are inclined to be resentful. ! k# ~3 b! Q7 y9 ~- O6 I公仔箱論壇tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb& G) w! s8 j9 F) ^: G7 W
Hyperinflation in Germany in the 1920’s fanned separatism in Bavaria,the Rhineland,and Saxony, because these remote areas thought that Germany’s central bank and central government in Berlin were discriminating against them. The separatists were politically radical – on the left in Saxony,and on the far right in Bavaria and the Rhineland. ) _ G+ A- g" j* Z. x9 z6 p& Y5.39.217.76 7 I( z' E [ v1 H- o5.39.217.76There are also more recent cases of the same effect. In late-1980’s Yugoslavia, as the socialist regime disintegrated, the monetary authorities in Belgrade were inevitably closest to Serbian politicians such as Slobodan Milošević and to Serbian business interests. As a result, the Croats and Slovenes wanted out of the federation. In the Soviet Union,inflation appeared as an instrument of Moscow bureaucrats, and there, too, more remote areas sought to break away. + S) g: c6 u1 i. ~$ g6 `5 j% a) I& K公仔箱論壇 2 Q3 e" b+ Y6 \" ~. J: ATVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。The makers of modern Europe saw that unstable and politically abused money would be a European nightmare,and lead to destructive national animosities and antagonisms. They were supported by the twentieth century’s two most influential economists, Friedrich von Hayek and John Maynard Keynes. % n% f6 O( }# X z3 C& H公仔箱論壇: M: c4 p) S+ C( I
Hayek was the most consistent critic of state-produced money. His proposal, competitive currencies produced by “free banking” in which numerous private authorities would issue their own money, was more radical than the solution adopted by Europeans in the 1990’s. But the Hayekian element of a money-issuing authority that was extensively protected against political pressures, and consequently against political opprobrium, was a key part of the European Union’s Maastricht Treaty. Keynes, too, in planning for the postwar order, proposed a synthetic global currency that would guarantee stability and prevent deflation. 9 p( r) E8 d- a6 D, a& r+ O, ~7 I # R$ \6 I# A# C- d5.39.217.76The vision of central-bank independence as a necessary part of the constitution of a sound and stable political order was not simply a European construct in the 1990’s. It was also reflected in legislative changes affecting other central banks, and in central bankers’ growing prestige. 3 j; J; D" S: J" ^: X5.39.217.761 |* ^0 y5 M: O% @2 d- |& W( v
That view is now seriously challenged. In the aftermath of the worst financial crisis since WWII, central banks are once again being called on to monetize securities issued by some debtors, but not others.That task of selecting between debtors is highly political, and poisons the idea of monetary stability.$ I- z# [* t' `* O' g
9 G8 L& L- J0 _" ?% c6 ETVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Jean-Claude Trichet, until recently the president of the European Central Bank, liked to claim that money was like poetry, before adding that both give a sense of stability. That unusual but accurate formulation is reminiscent of General August Neidhardt von Gneisenau’s famous reply to the Prussian King, who dismissed as “nothing more than poetry” von Gneisenau’s patriotic concerns in the early nineteenth century. “Religion,prayer, love of one’s ruler, love of the fatherland, what are these but poetry?” von Gneisenau asked. “Upon poetry is founded the security of the throne.” & l- ?. X8 `5 S" g7 a" ?公仔箱論壇 7 ?6 Q* g3 d( Y) h5.39.217.76Stable money, too, is the foundation of political order. We should not allow ourselves to be so overwhelmed by today’s crisis that we forget that.5.39.217.761 L$ @% y7 F" g& i) s. |2 F' X0 O
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5.39.217.76; K g0 C! d0 G Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University and Professor of History at the European University Institute, Florence. He is the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle.作者: aa00 時間: 2011-12-6 11:27 AM
跨国企业开始为欧元区解体作准备 公仔箱論壇. U5 x( I" q9 Z4 u9 {* i7 V2 v
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0 e8 `' |" [2 m! l( q2 k- u ( C4 `" p' x N) g% v公仔箱論壇 ; M, c6 m" }. T* ~0 O2 ITVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。欧元区解体还是那样遥远吗?5.39.217.76, x; t3 B: H0 q
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9 l9 \9 Z X4 I* z8 E2 u: Ftvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 2 \7 A5 ]4 C0 Z% \ ^5.39.217.76 ; O4 M4 e' K! O* x5.39.217.76英国《金融时报》日前发表文章称，欧洲许多大型企业已经开始为欧元区解体后的情形作打算。因为他们害怕，欧洲政治层无法掌控愈演愈烈的债务危机。 / m; x+ F* l% @( Y5.39.217.76 . ~& V/ m2 e D& g; n G# I$ \0 S) U6 T }5.39.217.76 公仔箱論壇% i' x/ U: e* a4 T: o( Z* S! H
