D0 o; |# k* C0 C% h意大利最有名望的一些商界人士也發表了類似的模棱兩可的言論：是的，我們在為一些極其嚴重的金融和經濟震蕩做准備，但我們沒有為歐元區解體的可能性做准備。大型工業控股企業CIR的首席執行官魯道夫•德貝內德蒂(Rodolfo De Benedetti)表示：“本集團一直在研究降低意外事件潛在風險的各種方法，准備應對任何情況，包括可能性最低的情況。然而，我有信心認為，歐洲領導人能夠防止歐元區解體。”3 y5 D5 R5 m' v1 m, g Z, I% B
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歐洲領先的家電公司之一意大利意黛喜(Indesit)的首席執行官馬爾科•米拉尼(Marco Milani)表示，意黛喜的關注焦點是那些能夠保証公司度過難關的投資。9 j& o/ R/ Z- E1 P( h* O& p
+ @7 C5 ^* z6 I4 h/ T面對歐元區解體這個沒有人希望看到的噩夢景象，歐洲企業准備得如何？關於這一點，公開的研究非常少。不過，倫敦企業軟件供應商IT2 Treasury Solutions上月對75家企業的財務負責人做了一項匿名調查，這些企業位於英國、荷蘭、芬蘭、瑞士、挪威、瑞典、加拿大和阿聯酋。調查結果顯示，認為歐元區將在未來1年內解體的受訪者比例剛過53%。更能說明問題的是，78.5%的受訪者認為，隻要提前3個月獲知歐元區將要解體，自己所在的企業在財務和運營方面將能夠應付。 - F% `' ~7 Q, xTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。. ]: W7 Y. p. h% T6 ?2 k5 r: a( Z
企業的財務負責人是抗擊危機的一線人員，他們負責保護企業資產、管理企業的匯率、利率及其它風險敞口。IT2的首席執行官凱文•格蘭特(Kevin Grant)表示，許多企業的財務負責人不僅意識到了歐元區解體的危險，還已經採取了防御性措施。5.39.217.76) M9 E7 m, U% \2 o7 _. m
1 m& X( c1 g; q# p! e/ [# x往昔欠下的巨額債務並不能通過減少當下公共部門的預算來減少。這樣做只會適得其反，使經濟更為衰退。歐洲的領導人明白這一點。他們知道歐洲需要經濟增長。但是與其去解決問題，尋求經濟增長的方式，還不如喋喋不休地去指責前幾任政府的失職。對於說教者而言這是個讓人滿意的行為，但是這並不會解決歐洲的問題，當然也拯救不了歐元。 / @ }( W7 r0 z1 ~6 E' dtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb! |3 G. j1 X2 H
' n5 r% M) G$ a( Y公仔箱論壇What Can Save the Euro? Joseph E.Stiglitz) W& T0 s; Q# }6 J: A% ?& M! ^
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/ Q5 e3 ?& n7 p; `tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbJust when it seemed that things couldn’t get worse,it appears that they have. Even some of the ostensibly “responsible” members of the eurozone are facing higher interest rates. Economists on both sides of the Atlantic are now discussing not just whether the euro will survive, but how to ensure that its demise causes the least turmoil possible.5 O8 F, H0 Z1 j2 L% d4 ]& l' o9 |
& q" I/ E6 _9 ^0 ^' |+ ^: vtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbIt is increasingly evident that Europe’s political leaders, for all their commitment to the euro’s survival, do not have a good grasp of what is required to make the single currency work. The prevailing view when the euro was established was that all that was required was fiscal discipline– no country’s fiscal deficit or public debt, relative to GDP, should be too large. But Ireland and Spain had budget surpluses and low debt before the crisis, which quickly turned into large deficits and high debt. So now European leaders say that it is the current-account deficits of the eurozone’s member countries that must be kept in check.# k' v2 }6 e* k* B% t4 R
. [* N6 t; R( t5 p6 e3 ]0 K1 k公仔箱論壇In that case, it seems curious that, as the crisis continues, the safe haven for global investors is the United States, which has had an enormous current-account deficit for years. So, how will the European Union distinguish between “good” current-account deficits – a government creates a favorable business climate, generating inflows of foreign direct investment – and “bad”current-account deficits? Preventing bad current-account deficits would require far greater intervention in the private sector than the neoliberal and single-market doctrines that were fashionable at the euro’s founding would imply.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb/ m6 y/ x5 n i
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In Spain,for example, money flowed into the private sector from private banks. Should such irrational exuberance force the government, willy-nilly, to curtail public investment? Does this mean that government must decide which capital flows –say into real-estate investment, for example – are bad, and so must be taxed or otherwise curbed? To me, this makes sense, but such policies should be anathema to the EU’s free-market advocates. / t2 V, X/ D9 ntvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5 t5 [; B8 \' S0 }) u, u
The quest for a clear, simple answer recalls the discussions that have followed financial crises around the world. After each crisis, an explanation emerges, which the next crisis shows to be wrong, or at least inadequate. The 1980’s Latin American crisis was caused by excessive borrowing; but that could not explain Mexico’s1994 crisis, so it was attributed to under-saving.公仔箱論壇& v w( t7 ]+ H; C
9 k; `! E9 ^4 J' _) {" w5 x3 w8 vTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Then came East Asia,which had high savings rates, so the new explanation was “governance.”But this, too, made little sense, given that the Scandinavian countries – which have the most transparent governance in the world – had suffered a crisis a few years earlier.& g" P. G1 e0 @' t' m- {$ `
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There is, interestingly, a common thread running through all of these cases, as well as the 2008 crisis: financial sectors behaved badly and failed to assess creditworthiness and manage risk as they were supposed to do.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。/ Q/ d- a, L1 M3 c6 W. T& h2 l
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These problems will occur with or without the euro.But the euro has made it more difficult for governments to respond. And the problem is not just that the euro took away two key tools for adjustment – the interest rate and the exchange rate – and put nothing in their place, or that the European Central Bank’s mandate is to focus on inflation, whereas today’s challenges are unemployment, growth, and financial stability. Without a common fiscal authority, the single market opened the way to tax competition – a race to the bottom to attract investment and boost output that could be freely sold throughout the EU. : Y% F- ^: G3 gtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb0 y% h f& b: ^$ v$ a/ }$ S
Moreover, free labor mobility means that individuals can choose whether to pay their parents’ debts: young Irish can simply escape repaying the foolish bank-bailout obligations assumed by their government by leaving the country. Of course, migration is supposed to be good,as it reallocates labor to where its return is highest. But this kind of migration actually undermines productivity.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb% o/ S, b' E2 W6 d0 v8 v1 {% \
/ W2 A1 F. v8 J7 K( `- N1 NMigration is, of course, part of the adjustment mechanism that makes America work as a single market with a single currency. Even more important is the federal government’s role in helping states that face, say, high unemployment,by allocating additional tax revenue to them – the so-called “transfer union”so loathed by many Germans.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb: ~! e; @3 R" u5 r6 `* w
) k e% }3 }& J9 p1 `But the US is also willing to accept the depopulation of entire states that cannot compete. (Some point out that this means that America’s corporations can buy senators from such states at a lower price.) But are European countries with lagging productivity willing to accept depopulation?Alternatively, are they willing to face the pain of “internal” devaluation, a process that failed under the gold standard and is failing under the euro?TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。0 i; ^- y; J H7 i; g7 j
$ Y$ E, T6 J- @6 ?Even if those from Europe’s northern countries are right in claiming that the euro would work if effective discipline could be imposed on others (I think they are wrong), they are deluding themselves with amorality play. It is fine to blame their southern compatriots for fiscal profligacy,or, in the case of Spain and Ireland,for letting free markets have free reign, without seeing where that would lead.But that doesn’t address today’s problem: huge debts, whether a result of private or public miscalculations, must be managed within the euro framework.5.39.217.763 y4 W- l2 W# `% ~4 P, m* x) m
0 z, P" }( Y* P9 T" I3 ETVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Public-sector cutbacks today do not solve the problem of yesterday’s profligacy; they simply push economies into deeper recessions. Europe’s leaders know this. They know that growth is needed. But, rather than deal with today’s problems and find a formula for growth, they prefer to deliver homilies about what some previous government should have done. This may be satisfying for the sermonizer, but it won’t solve Europe’s problems – and it won’t save the euro. 4 s& P8 M, M2 c# J: K公仔箱論壇% [0 }4 ~8 U0 o& X
5.39.217.769 O6 Z# D$ T5 L& v2 {* W2 v Joseph E. Stiglitz is University Professor at Columbia University, a Nobel laureate in economics, and the author of Freefall:Free Markets and the Sinking of the Global Economy. : j% F3 J+ C x' k; X; w公仔箱論壇作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-12-6 08:46 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-12-6 08:51 AM 編輯 5.39.217.76& z& s! y, a8 q; x0 Q" {
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5 G4 D1 `: r s% t4 ^% _2 A The Poetry of the Euro Harold Jamestvb now,tvbnow,bttvb" K+ S, ?& Y9 B! Q) C1 @
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7 u6 t1 _, y5 B+ rtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThe purpose of creating a common currency has been largely and surprisingly forgotten in crisis-torn Europe.Instead, there seem to be more pressing concerns: gloomy speculation about the eurozone’s impending collapse and desperate attempts to find institutional fixes to its extensive governance problems. , o6 a* s+ o* k6 E W r8 q; _TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 # Z9 ^7 ^+ V8 F0 t5.39.217.76But the euro was not just the outcome of an idiosyncratic quest to reduce the wear on pockets stuffed with odd national coins, or to facilitate intra-European trade. The bold European experiment reflected a new attitude about what money should do, as well as how it should be managed. In opting for a “pure” form of money, created by a central bank independent of national authority, Europeans self-consciously flew in the face of what had become the dominant monetary tradition. & b2 S( e6 ?/ G5.39.217.76TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。; \+ Y5 r3 M: K" t, a
In the twentieth century, the creation of money –paper money – was usually thought to be the domain of the state. Money could be issued because governments had the power to define the unit of account in which taxes should be paid. This tradition went back well before paper, or fiat,currencies. For many centuries, even while metallic money circulated, the task of defining units of account – livres tournois, marks, gulden, florins, or dollars – remained a task of the state (or of those with political power). 7 g3 {. r# c8 q2 s& ctvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5.39.217.76. `* i0 [7 G# U" J
Abuse of this role, with governments addressing excessive debt by inflating it away, was deeply destructive of political order in the first half of the twentieth century. After World War II, the liberal politicians most committed to European federalism saw this point clearly. The economist, central-bank governor, finance minister, and president of the Italian Republic, Luigi Einaudi, pleaded the case in the immediate aftermath of the war: “If the European federation takes away from the individual states the power of running public works through the printing press, and limits them to expenses that are financed solely by taxes and voluntary loans, it will by that act alone have accomplished a great work.”tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb8 l. q: s% ~) _( E0 i
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But monetary abuse is no less dangerous in political systems with multi-layered authority, and in the past often led to the breakup of federal states. That is because inflation is not a benign cure for economic ills, in which beneficent and stimulatory effects are spread equally over the entire region under the inflationary monetary authority. Making inflation depends on the central bank’s decision to monetize specific debt instruments. ' x+ F7 e F/ N+ @* D' [3 ?+ l5.39.217.76公仔箱論壇- F( P* {6 N3 n5 ^5 J" B; `2 M- p1 v
After all, the monetary authority never decides simply to convert every obligation into money. Instead, it decides that some industries, banks, or political authorities need to be sustained for the general good. Those industries, banks, and political authorities that are not so privileged are inevitably resentful, and view the central bank’s actions as an abuse of power. In federal systems, in particular, those businesses and political authorities far removed from the center are most likely to be excluded from the monetary stimulus and hence are inclined to be resentful.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb& d' u+ b( i! h, ]! h
8 T9 G4 f) v: l) k' k0 l4 t! NHyperinflation in Germany in the 1920’s fanned separatism in Bavaria,the Rhineland,and Saxony, because these remote areas thought that Germany’s central bank and central government in Berlin were discriminating against them. The separatists were politically radical – on the left in Saxony,and on the far right in Bavaria and the Rhineland. 2 c6 | c1 f3 ?- m8 U5 R. x 2 ?6 l/ q; `! p9 t5.39.217.76There are also more recent cases of the same effect. In late-1980’s Yugoslavia, as the socialist regime disintegrated, the monetary authorities in Belgrade were inevitably closest to Serbian politicians such as Slobodan Milošević and to Serbian business interests. As a result, the Croats and Slovenes wanted out of the federation. In the Soviet Union,inflation appeared as an instrument of Moscow bureaucrats, and there, too, more remote areas sought to break away.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb( @2 S) F2 }, U% }. ~& D
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。* P. t! D( ?* Z( o- Y
The makers of modern Europe saw that unstable and politically abused money would be a European nightmare,and lead to destructive national animosities and antagonisms. They were supported by the twentieth century’s two most influential economists, Friedrich von Hayek and John Maynard Keynes.5.39.217.766 w) l* w( C" J J8 Y' L
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Hayek was the most consistent critic of state-produced money. His proposal, competitive currencies produced by “free banking” in which numerous private authorities would issue their own money, was more radical than the solution adopted by Europeans in the 1990’s. But the Hayekian element of a money-issuing authority that was extensively protected against political pressures, and consequently against political opprobrium, was a key part of the European Union’s Maastricht Treaty. Keynes, too, in planning for the postwar order, proposed a synthetic global currency that would guarantee stability and prevent deflation.2 o+ C; _2 n& }- |
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。- P9 X; u6 f2 v. P& M/ \2 z
The vision of central-bank independence as a necessary part of the constitution of a sound and stable political order was not simply a European construct in the 1990’s. It was also reflected in legislative changes affecting other central banks, and in central bankers’ growing prestige. 8 ~/ }! d: a) C; U9 {% ]) K. m+ itvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 6 }2 I" m0 } G; J, BTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。That view is now seriously challenged. In the aftermath of the worst financial crisis since WWII, central banks are once again being called on to monetize securities issued by some debtors, but not others.That task of selecting between debtors is highly political, and poisons the idea of monetary stability. 6 l4 d9 T: R! v7 h2 a- A 0 r0 F6 [2 I( a _8 HJean-Claude Trichet, until recently the president of the European Central Bank, liked to claim that money was like poetry, before adding that both give a sense of stability. That unusual but accurate formulation is reminiscent of General August Neidhardt von Gneisenau’s famous reply to the Prussian King, who dismissed as “nothing more than poetry” von Gneisenau’s patriotic concerns in the early nineteenth century. “Religion,prayer, love of one’s ruler, love of the fatherland, what are these but poetry?” von Gneisenau asked. “Upon poetry is founded the security of the throne.” * ~) G. |: P4 J" R0 btvb now,tvbnow,bttvb公仔箱論壇2 c7 U1 \7 V* ?$ S- Q
Stable money, too, is the foundation of political order. We should not allow ourselves to be so overwhelmed by today’s crisis that we forget that. - \& n7 y3 \% v) z 0 T$ b# }5 S! r5.39.217.76公仔箱論壇; z3 v" |4 _6 G6 y- e3 W Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University and Professor of History at the European University Institute, Florence. He is the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle.作者: aa00 時間: 2011-12-6 11:27 AM
跨国企业开始为欧元区解体作准备 @; P& B9 L$ ~5 f% x, @( \ _
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