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標題: 中美“婚床”缘何会裂开（一） & 美资回流：中美友好的重要纽带开始松动-中美关系变化之回溯（二） [打印本頁]

作者: aa00 時間: 2011-12-5 08:52 AM 標題: 中美“婚床”缘何会裂开（一） & 美资回流：中美友好的重要纽带开始松动-中美关系变化之回溯（二）

本帖最後由 aa00 於 2011-12-11 02:33 PM 編輯 公仔箱論壇3 X8 P! V# W( |( ~0 e: e) h

中美“婚床”缘何会裂开 ——中美关系变化之回溯（一）

何清涟发表
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种种迹象显示，中美婚床正在迅速裂开，而且在短期内并无弥合可能。除了美国总统奥巴马在夏威夷亚太峰会上批评中国不遵守国际规则的强硬讲话及亚太九国TPP协议中国“未获邀请”之外，更重要的方向性指标是美中经济和安全审议委员会（U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission）的年度报告。报告共列出了43条建议，第一条建议就是，美国国会应委托美国国家安全委员会（National Security Council）对现行对华政策开展评估。; f  K, H0 ~9 ]% R, [: ?# a
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我注意到该委员会主席William Reinsch特别指出，美国已经意识到，指望中国彻底融入西方的经济和政治体制是不切实际的。这一说法表明：美国对中国的政治幻想已经破灭。公仔箱論壇3 t* h$ ?  g. Q) h, L% ]6 C# q  A

梳理一下中美关系是如何一步步走到今天，特别是回想美国总统奥巴马入主白宫后的三年对华外交，一定让人感概万千：奥巴马在其任期的第一年访华回来两手空空，欧美舆论称其“向北京叩头”；这次在夏威夷亚太峰会上对华讲话强硬，国际媒体称其“揪住中国的衣领”。从“叩头”到“揪住衣领”，这三年当中到底发生了什么？ $ f4 J' ?, f! E1 y9 f8 b+ v1 x- N
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这里先得简单交待决定中美两国关系走势的美国因素。以美国而言，影响白宫对华政策的至少有三支政界力量：一支是以两国经贸关系为优先考量的财政部与商务部（支持者为美国金融界与产业界的跨国公司），代表美国的即期利益需求；另一支以国务院为代表，从克林顿时期的人权外交开始，一直希望通过接触、说服，影响并引导中国进入西方体系。这两支力量构成“拥抱熊猫派”的主体，是近年主导美国对华政策的重要力量。近两三年美国金、产两界对华态度发生变化，中美关系摩擦也日益增多。3 g4 d. P2 m9 d1 U& T4 z1 V
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第三支被称为“敲打熊猫派”（由蓝队与弑龙派演化而来），以强调地缘竞争的五角大楼为代表。在过去很长一段时期内，这支力量无论从人数还是从影响来看处于衰退状态，直到近两年势头才变得稍旺。与之相应的是亚太地区地缘政治也发生同步变化：美国太平洋舰队本世纪零年代中期不得退守太平洋第二岛链，去年又在东南亚国家的吁请下回归第一岛链。

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从90年代柏林墙倒塌后，中美关系成为两国最重要的外交关系。无论是克林顿政府还是小布什政府，对华政策都呈“低开高走”曲线。1992年克林顿在竞选总统时承诺：“不会拥抱从巴格达到北京的独裁者”，但后来却成了解除“六四”后各国禁制措施的积极推进者。面对媒体的讥讽，克林顿只得以 “创造性模糊战略”来自我辩解。其继任者小布什在竞选时将中国定位为美国的“战略竞争者”，但在9•11以后因反恐需要，被迫与中国发展“战略伙伴关系”，在美国的“拥抱熊猫派”与“弑龙派”两种主张夹击中走中间路线，被称为“熊猫避险派”。
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与前两任美国总统的对华政策呈“低开高走”曲线相反，奥巴马政府的中美关系呈“高开低走”。奥巴马在进入白宫之前，对中国（包括台海关系）并无倾向性的定见。他从未指称中国是一个独裁国家，也没有承诺他会采取一些方式将中国引向民主。奥巴马当选后，在对华关系上更是创造了两个“第一”：他是第一个在对华政策上充分考虑了来自中国的“智囊”的建议的总统，其“对华政策期望清单”是由美国东西方研究所邀请中国外交部“中国国际问题研究所”，从“中国视角”出发参与起草的。该清单建议中美两国应该建立五个伙伴关系：经济伙伴、反恐伙伴、防扩散伙伴、绿色伙伴、跨太平洋伙伴。另一个“第一”是开创了美国总统上任不到一年就访问中国的先河。这次访问中，他公开表达了正面接纳中国和平崛起、不谋求遏制中国、愿意同中国分享部分“领导责任”等意愿，以此换取中美战略相互保证，希望确保中国崛起不挑战美国利益而且成为促进美国利益的正面因素。
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但奥巴马向中国伸出的友谊之手，并未赢得北京的友谊。北京对他以种种方式表达了前所未有的轻慢。在奥巴马访华时，中国政府的各种控制比过去克林顿、布什两位总统来访时要严厉得多。美国为了表示奥巴马的访问行程不完全受控于北京，曾点名《南方周末》采访奥巴马。尽管《南方周末》总编向熹本来就是中共信任而派去看守这家媒体的干部，采访报道本身也没有出格之处，但北京还是给予向熹以免职的惩罚。在2009年12月哥本哈根气候峰会期间的24国首脑会议上，中国“忘记”了自己愿做美国的“绿色伙伴”并在全球气候及节约能源等议题上支持美国的承诺，甚至置起码的外交礼仪于不顾，派一个副部长级的官员对奥巴马颐指气使，表现极为粗鲁。所有这些，都激起了美国人对中国政府的反感。这些反感积聚到2010年1月，终于在Google事件上找到了爆发点，此后中美婚床开始出现裂缝。两国间风波迭起。从Google事件、对台军售，直至奥巴马接见达赖喇嘛，所有过去美国为顾及中国政府情绪而暂时搁置的事接连推出。公仔箱論壇0 d: m6 A1 n$ E7 u( Z; `
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这些事情与2010年开始冒头的贸易保护主义、在华外资对中国投资环境的严重不满结合在一起，使中美关系面临越来越多的困难。中国的反应也非常激烈，《光明日报》于2010年2月4日发表了一篇“奥巴马，13亿中国人鄙视你”，开创了中美建交以来官方媒体辱骂美国总统的先河。当时，一向慎谈政治的美国在华商界人士对中美关系前景也持悲观态度，欧亚集团甚至将中美关系列为2010年全球十大风险之首。

中美关系出现这么多的风波，北京冷静下来之后，倒也想了一些办法希望挽回。尽管中国已经成为GDP总量第二，但中国却表示了前所未有的谦让姿态。先是主管外交的国务委员戴秉国于2010年12月发表长文，主题是表示，“说中国要取代美国、称霸世界，那是神话。”继之又有中国国际战略研究基金会名誉会长、解放军原副总参谋长熊光楷发表署名文章“被歪曲的中国国家安全形象”，斥责国内有人过高估计自身实力，鼓吹“持剑经商”，“加深了外界对中国的误解”。2011年5月解放军总参谋长陈炳德访美，再次强调中国“无意挑战美国”，只是希望美国尊重中国的核心利益。这一从“崛起”到谦辞“候选老大”的急转弯，虽然是缘于国内政治经济形势尤其是经济形势非常不妙，但希望与美国修好的想法表露得非常清楚。9 m4 f8 m4 [. `- b$ O& E

问题是，美国决定对华政策的几种势力的消长，并非白宫能够控制。总统个人无论对中国的观感如何，毕竟无法将其个人偏好带到美国的对外政策中来，如同小布什总统从不喜欢专制中国，但也形格势禁，不得不与中国结成反恐“战略伙伴”关系。郎咸平最近发文“我们低估了奥巴马的权谋”，是因为没看到决定美国对华政策两派势力的消长。
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（后续分析请见“美资回流：中美友好的重要纽带开始松动——中美关系变化之回溯”）5.39.217.763 o. K  K3 k5 r1 U

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TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。2 v, J# S  N% N) H7 i. i
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(以上内容摘自或摘译自其它媒体 / 作者，不代表發帖者观点)

作者: aa00 時間: 2011-12-5 08:54 AM

中美“婚床”缘何会裂开 ——中美关系变化之回溯（一）  (English Version)
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何清涟发表TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。% V0 Y% Z. u6 p' t1 @+ ^& e

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There are signs that the Sino-American wedding bed is quickly falling apart, and no remedy is possible in the near future. Apart from U.S. President Barack Obama’s tough talk that criticized China for not abiding by international rules and its “not being invited” to Trans-Pacific Partnership, there was an even more important directional indicator: the annual report from the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. In that report forty-three recommendations had been listed, the first of which was: the U.S. Congress should commission the National Security Council to carry out assessments of the current China policy.

It drew my attention that William Reinsch, chairman of that Commission, pointed out specifically that the U.S. had come to realize it was unrealistic to expect China to fully integrate into the Western economic and political system. This statement showed that the U.S. political illusion about China had dashed.
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To sort out how the relationship between China and the United States wound up step by step to the way it is today, in particular when recalling U.S. President Barack Obama’s diplomacy toward China in the three years after he entered the White House, one would surely be filled with mixed emotions. 5.39.217.76! t2 x7 J5 r+ A! C

In the first year his presidency, Barack Obama visited China and came back empty-handed; public opinion in Europe and the United States had it that he “kowtowed to Beijing”. This time, during the APEC Summit in Hawaii, Obama made some tough remarks on China, and international media said he “grabbed China by the collar”. tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb. m+ x9 D/ p% c; U- m# ~) N
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From “kowtow” to “grabbing the collar”, what happened in these three years?- ~2 [# U: k" s, w9 `. R

It is necessary to first go through briefly the American factors that determine how the ties between China and the United States would be. In the U.S., there are at least three political forces that have influence on White House policy toward China.

The first force, comprising the Treasury and the Department of Commerce, gives top priority to bilateral economic and trade relations between the two countries, and represents immediate interests and needs of the United States. Supporters of this force are mainly multinational enterprises of the U.S. financial and industrial sectors. 7 E' A0 b( i1 k( N5 z

The second force is represented by the Department of State. Starting from Bill Clinton’s human rights diplomacy, this force has been hoping to lead China into the Western system through contact, persuasion, influence and guidance. This and the first force constitute the main body of “Panda Huggers”, which has been the group that dominated U.S. policy toward China in recent years. However, in the past two or three years, the financial and the industrial sectors changed their attitude toward China and frictions between the two countries increase by the day. tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb/ q* X3 j0 @2 d

The third force, known as “Panda Bashers”, evolved from the blue team and the dragon slayers and is represented by the Pentagon, which stresses geopolitical competition. For a long time in the past, this force appeared to be in decline both in its supporters and influence, it gained momentum slightly only in the last two years. Meanwhile, corresponding geopolitical changes have taken place in the Asia-Pacific region: the U.S. Pacific Fleet had had to retreat to the second Pacific island chain in mid-noughties of this century; it went back to the first island chain last year at the request of Southeast Asian countries.9 \$ t% {  T$ [

Since the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1990s, the relationship between China and the United States became the most important of diplomacy in both countries. Whether it was the Clinton administration or that of George W. Bush, U.S. policy toward China appeared to have started low and ended high.

In 1992, Bill Clinton promised during his presidential campaign that he would not be “coddling dictators from Baghdad to Beijing”. But later he became an active advocate for countries to lift their bans against China after June-4th. In the face of media ridicule, Bill Clinton could only use “creative ambiguity strategy” as self-defense. 1 c4 ~+ l( s9 f$ P& o( j

When running for presidency, Clinton’s successor George W. Bush positioned China as a U.S. “strategic competitor”. But after 9/11, he had to develop with China a “Strategic partnership” due to anti-terrorism needs. Under attacks from both the Panda huggers and dragon slayers, Bush took to the middle path, and was called the “panda hedger”.0 T0 `+ ^) `: S/ U6 P" _

Contrary to the “start low and end high” curve of his two predecessors, Barack Obama appears to have a U.S.-China relationship that “started high and ended low”. Before entering the White House, Barack Obama had no fixed, tendentious opinion on China (including the Taiwan Strait relations). He never said that China is an autocratic country, nor did he promise to take actions to guide China toward democracy. After being elected, Barack Obama created two “firsts” in U.S. China policy: he is the first president to have taken fully into account suggestions from China’s “think tank”. His “China policy wish-list” was drafted from “China’s perspective” by “China Institute of International Studies”, at the invitation of American Institute of East and West. That list suggested that China and the United States should establish partnership in five areas: economics, counter-terrorism, non-proliferation, green, and trans-Pacific. 6 E! B7 r, Y0 C% Z. f) R: W8 M
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Barack Obama is also the first U.S. president to visit China within the first year of his presidency. In that visit, Obama openly expressed that the United States positively accept China’s peaceful rise, that the country does not seek to contain China, and its willingness to share with China part of the “leadership responsibility” so as to get in return mutual strategic guarantees between China and America. He hoped that China’s rise would not challenge the interests of the United States and instead become a positive factor in promoting them.

But Barack Obama’s hand of friendship extended to China did not get in return Beijing’s friendship. Instead, Beijing showed Obama its disdain in all sorts of ways. When President Obama visited China, the Chinese authorities applied control measures that were much more rigid than when Bill Clinton and George W. Bush visited the country.

In a bid to show that Obama’s visiting itinerary was not completely controlled by Beijing, the United States named Southern Weekend to interview Obama. Although Xiang Xi, the editor-at-large of Southern Weekend was a cadre that the CCP trusted and sent to supervise the media outlet, and the interview itself didn’t cross any line, Beijing still punished Xiang Xi by removing him from his duty./ {) j! l5 l! N( _( U9 v8 b
In December 2009 during G-24 meeting at the United Nations Climate Change Conference, China “forgot” its commitment to be America’s “Green Partner” and to support the United States in issues like global climate and energy conservation. It even disregarded basic diplomatic etiquette, and sent a vice-ministerial level official to talk arrogantly to president Obama, a behavior that was extremely rude. 公仔箱論壇+ A! @2 H" }& b+ p  B; D" I
All this aroused Americans’ antipathy against the Chinese government. 5.39.217.76, r# [7 n* r( P* ]8 ]4 Q

By January 2010, this accumulated antipathy finally reached the breakout point on the Google incident. Since then, the wedding bed of China and the United States began to fall apart, and a series of clashes between the two countries ensued. From the Google incident, arms sales to Taiwan, to Barack Obama’s meeting with the Dalai Lama, all those that the United States had once set aside temporarily to take care of the feelings of the Chinese government were now rolled out in succession. 5.39.217.767 n; ]5 B  ~, y* h! w
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These incidents, with the combination of the trade protectionism that began to rise in 2010, and the strong dissatisfaction the investors felt toward the investment environment in China, resulted in increasing difficulties facing Sino-American relationship. China’s reaction to these was very heated. On February 4, 2010, a CCP mouthpiece Guangming Daily published an article: “Obama, 1.3 billion Chinese people despise you”, setting the first example of China’s state media abusing a U.S. president since the establishment of Sino-American diplomatic relations. 5.39.217.76) U" L6 t/ ]! n# m: ~
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At that time, the U.S. business community in China, which had always been careful not to talk about politics, were also pessimistic about the prospects of Sino-American relationship, which was even listed by Eurasia Group as number one of the world’s top ten risks in 2010.8 k/ _; }: ~' q# M

With these many clashes broke out, Beijing did actually think of ways to try to restore the Sino-US relations after it had calmed down. Although China has reached second place in total GDP, the country showed gestures more modest than ever. First, State Councilor for Foreign Affairs Dai Bingguo published in December 2010 a long article which theme was, “It is a myth to say that China would overtake the United States and dominate the world.” tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb* Q/ ~5 h) }! T8 v+ y# V

Later on, an article entitling “Distorted Image of China’s National Security” was published under the name of Xiong Guangjie, honorary president of the Chinese International Foundation for Strategic Research, and former deputy chief of staff of the PLA. It reprimanded some people inside China for an overestimate of their own strength, and their advocacy of “holding sword while doing business”, which “deepen the outside world’s misunderstanding of China.” TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( h3 l9 P( g1 M1 E+ P

In May 2011, PLA Chief of General Staff Chen Bingde visited the United States. He reiterated that China “has no intention to challenge the United States”, and that it only wants the U.S. to respect its core interests. Although this rapid u-turn from speaking of its “rise” to toning down and addressing itself as a “would-be boss” is a result of grave domestic political and in particular economic situation; the hope of rapprochement with the United States was also expressed very clearly.

However, the rise and fall of the forces that influence U.S. China policy is not what the White House has control over. Regardless of what perception a President may have of China, that personal preference could not be allowed to influence U.S. foreign policy. Just as former President George W. Bush had to form with China a “strategic partnership” to fight terrorism as the situation so demanded, even though he never liked autocratic China. Lang Hsien-Ping recently wrote an article, “We have underestimated Barack Obama’s trickery”, in it are signs that he failed to see the rise and fall of the panda huggers and the dragon slayers are what truly shape the U.S. China policy.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。# V1 _/ h% c' n; n5 H, g% X. H

For follow-up analysis, please see “U.S. capital reflux, the crucial bond between China and the United States began to loosen—a retrospective of changes in Sino-American relationship over the past decade.
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來源 / 版權所有：以上所述媒体 / 作者 tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb' `) f' u) R. J# Z% L
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作者: aa00 時間: 2011-12-11 02:36 PM

美资回流：中美友好的重要纽带开始松动-中美关系变化之回溯（二）

何清涟发表
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如前所述，中美关系发生变化的一个重要原因，是诸多美国跨国公司巨头相继从中国市场撤出。中国方面只承认美资有撤出的，但不承认撤资“成潮”。美国波士顿企管顾问公司（BCG）发布的研究报告《美国制造归来》（Made in the USA, Again）指出，中美生产成本差距缩小，美资企业已从大陆撤离回流到美国，中国制造（Made In China）已变身成为美国制造（Made In America）。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( U1 T$ A* r+ v: Q; g

中国市场已成美资眼中“鸡肋”. m/ q6 v3 d: @. ]' \9 z

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这里需要先对中国商务部公布的外商投资增加的数据作一解析。北京一直宣称外资还在持续增加，2011年1-9月，全国新批设立外商投资企业20407家，同比增长6.24%；合同外资金额1778.67亿美元，同比增长16.85%；实际使用外资金额866.79亿美元，同比增长16.6%。如果仅看这些数据定会产生误解，即中国还被世界跨国公司视为投资宝域。但实际情况并非如此，因为上述数据包括来自维尔京、开曼群岛、萨摩亚、毛里求斯和巴巴多斯等自由港的对华投资。维尔京、开曼群岛、萨摩亚等地正好是中国资本外逃的中转站和洗钱天堂。来自这些地方的所谓“新增对华投资”，其实只不过是中国人和中国公司在这些洗钱天堂漂白的资本回流。
早在四、五年前，美欧众多跨国公司就已经公开表露对中国投资环境恶化的严重不满。中国美国商会与中国欧盟商会连续三年发布的调查报告，都表示欧美商界对中国的保护性政策越发感到担心，认为它们在华工作的环境在未来几年将会更加恶化。外资的不满集中在三点：一是知识产权得不到保护，新规定迫使外资企业将业务和技术诀窍转让给中资公司，以换取市场准入。二是政府采购规定有失公平，在华经营的外资公司“期望在公开招标中获得平等对待”。三是中国对外资企业并购采取的限制。要成立合资企业，外资方面必须寻找中国公司作为合作伙伴，双方的股权分配只能是一半对一半。在中国知识产权保护力度严重不足，这给外资企业造成了巨大的损失。
美国政府与欧盟领导层与中国就投资环境进行多轮磋商，但未能有所改变。加之中国大陆近两年面临员工薪资上涨，土地成本增加，以及人民币不断升值等因素，造成整体生产成本大增。美资企业盘算成本之后，认为大陆廉价劳动力的优势已不复存在，于是将企业回迁美国。BCG在《美国制造归来》中预测，到2020年将有15%针对北美市场的美国企业从中国回流到美国。前不久，福特汽车公司宣布把1.2万个工作机会迁回美国，并将在美国投资160亿美元，包括62亿美元用于购买和升级在美工厂的配备。BGG高级合夥人希尔金（Harold L. Sirkin）指出，未来五年在美国一些地区制造的商品，生产成本将只比大陆沿海城市略高5%至10%。成本缩小的同时，美国的生产效率更超过大陆。

高盛从急欲联姻到绝袂离婚tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb/ h2 B. _) x4 N# I3 d. }" R
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撤资的不止产业界，还有金融业。最近几个月，美国银行（Bank of America）和高盛先后结束与中资银行的联姻。在它们采取行动之前，美银（Bank of America）和美林（Merrill Lynch）将其拥有的中国建设银行的10%的股份出售了大约一半。在所有美资的撤资当中，高盛的退出具有标志性意义。就我所知，高盛曾绞尽脑汁希望在中国扎根，为此充当了中国金融业最踊跃的战略投资者。为了获得北京青睐，高盛曾投入巨额公关费用进行巧妙的公关。这些公关手段当中包括采用北京最喜欢的手段：即帮助中国在国际社会宣传。那本罔顾事实、竭尽吹捧之能事的《北京共识》（2005年），就是美国高盛公司的资深顾问乔舒亚•库珀•雷默（Joshua Cooper Ramo）执笔写成。这个报告不仅将中国这种罔顾社会公正与人权、严重透支生态环境的经济模式，说成“以平等与高质量的发展为其特点”，是“寻求公正与高质增长的发展途径”的发展模式；还说“北京共识”包含的许多“非经济理念”（即“专制极权政治＋市场经济”的政治理念与价值观）不仅值得发展中国家仿效，还将在全球范围内取代“华盛顿共识”。这种有点无耻但很有效的“公关”方式其它外资银行亦曾广泛采用，2004年在英文世界里发行并获得关注的《他改变了中国：江泽民传》，作者就是一句中国话都不会说的花旗（银行）集团的执行董事库恩。这位既非传记作家，也非记者，更不是中国问题专家的金融界从业者，亲自捉笔写就这本传记，其公关意义自不待言。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。. D6 K3 |' {& c6 K" Y3 m
花费如此投入公关而进入的市场居然被舍弃，只有傻瓜才会将这一信息解读成是出自于自身的困难。只能说，这些银行已经看到一点：中国市场的前景晦暗，该是全身而退之时了。
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这些对美国政界有着举足轻重影响的跨国公司退出中国，意味着联系中美政治经济关系的重要纽带已经松动。以往的岁月里，由于在华投资的广泛利益，这些跨国公司一直力主中美友好，是美国政商两界“拥抱熊猫派”的主要社会基础。
多年来，跨国公司为了实现和保障在华投资利润，对国会进行了大量游说。它们在华盛顿有专门的游说人员，还结成了同盟。在中国加入世贸组织之前，他们热衷于呼吁美国政府无条件延长对华最惠国待遇。面对中国恶劣的人权状态与专制政治，他们游说国会的主要理由是，“中国正行进在接近西方民主的改良之路上”、“经济发展将会促进中国的政治改革”、“网路普及将给中国带来新闻自由”等等。这些游说活动中有几项让中国政府受益匪浅。例如，2000 年美国国会对中国最惠国待遇表决之前，波音等美国数百家跨国公司结成团体，发动了声势浩大的游说行动。参与人员包括各公司的政府关系专家、行业联合会的游说机构以及共同雇佣的专门游说公司。在近一年时间里，他们举办大量讲座和会谈，向国会灌输开放对华贸易将会给美国企业带来的巨大商机的理念，最终获得成功。这次集体游说总共花费1.12亿美元－－此前，美国商界集体行动的最高纪录是建立北美自由贸易区的游说，总额也不过3,000万美元。2007年美国出台《对华出口和再出口管制政策的修改和澄清及新的授权合格最终用户制度》，增加了47项出口管制产品，但最后促使美国减少管制产品的不是中国政府的抗议，而是美国的跨国公司波音、联合技术等企业的游说。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb# X5 B& M0 W* _. K! Z, I- q
美国跨国公司对中美友好所做的贡献，中国政府基本不会公开承认。但北京心知肚明，尽管北京曾聘请20多家专业公关公司为其在美国游说，其效果却远不如这些在美国本土政界拥有盘根错节关系网络的跨国公司。当美国金融产业界与中国的紧密联系松动之后，中国与美国在地缘政治上的矛盾、以及中国与国际体系、中共价值观与普世价值的内在冲突等各种因经贸利益而被强行压制下去的摩擦性因素就会日益突显。
无疑，中美关系面临新变局。从目前的状况来看，美国对此似乎已有心理准备，中国方面明显准备不足。

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作者: aa00 時間: 2011-12-11 02:38 PM

美资回流：中美友好的重要纽带开始松动-中美关系变化之回溯（二）

何清涟发表
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U.S. capital reflux, the crucial bond between China and the United States began to loosen—a retrospective of changes in Sino-American relations (two)

By He Qinglian

(translated by kRiZcPEc)
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As said in the previous article, one of the main reasons the Sino-American relations has changed was that one American multinational giant after another withdrew from the Chinese market. China only acknowledged that there had been instances of U.S. businesses withdrawal, but denied that it had become a trend. In its research report, Made in the USA, Again, the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) pointed out that “the [gap of production costs] with China shrinks”, U.S. enterprises had left China and moved back to America. What were once made in China are now made in America. (Source in Chinese)tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb8 f" f8 W3 @! L6 b7 o) w( H; n, L

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The Chinese market has become uneasy for American BusinessesTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。9 G+ Z, i& c6 [; `" T% a
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Here it is necessary to first analyze the data released the Chinese Ministry of Commerce that reflected an increase in foreign investment. Beijing has claimed all along that foreign investment is still on the increase. From January to September 2011, 20,407 new foreign enterprises had been approved to launch, an increase of 6.24% year on year; and contracted foreign investment amounted to $177.867 billion, an increase of 16.85% year on year. Looking at these data alone and it would be inevitable to misunderstand that multinationals still deem China as the place to invest in. This is not true. The data cited above included investment from free ports like the Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Samoa, Barbados, and Mauritius. These places happen to be money laundering havens and transit points for China’s capital that has fled the country. The so-called new investments in China from these places were in fact returning capitals of Chinese individuals and Chinese companies that had been bleached in money laundering havens.公仔箱論壇/ l- g7 w0 i7 A
As early as four or five years ago, many multinationals from Europe and the United States openly expressed their dissatisfaction with the deterioration in China’s investing environment. For three consecutive years the American Chamber of Commerce in the People’s Republic of China and the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China published studies that reflected businesses from the U.S. and the E.U. had been increasingly worried about China’s protection policy, thinking that their work environment in China would worsen even more.
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Foreign companies are dissatisfied in three areas.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, C  P* k& ?! c& Y; |7 Y2 l- f

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First, lack of protection of intellectual property: New regulations forced these companies to transfer their business and technologies to Chinese companies to gain market access. Protection of intellectual property was seriously inadequate, causing massive losses in foreign enterprises.
Second, unfair government provisions on acquisition: Foreign companies in China “wished to get equal treatment in open tender.”
Third, merger restrictions imposed upon foreign firms: To set up joint ventures, foreign companies were required to partner with Chinese companies, and the share holding ratio between both sides could only be fifty-fifty. 5.39.217.76% |( C1 G! W: H6 t. I
U.S. government and E.U. leaders held rounds of talk with the Chinese authorities on investment environment, but no change had been resulted. On top of this, China saw in the last two years a rise in workers’ wages, land cost and continuous appreciation of RMB among other factors that sharply increased the overall production costs.
After costs calculation, U.S. enterprises thought that the advantage of cheap labor in mainland China has ceased to exist, and so they moved back to the United States. In its report Made in the USA, Again, the BCG predicted that by 2020, 15% of U.S. corporations targeting North American market would move back to the United States from China.公仔箱論壇6 x8 n0 F  ?" l/ H$ ^. u, N( }/ z
Not long ago, Ford Motor Company announced that 12,000 jobs are to be moved back to the United States, where it will invest $16 billion, including $62 billion for purchase and plant equipments upgrade.
BCG senior partner Harold L. Sirkin pointed out that in the next five years the production cost of goods made in certain areas in the United States would only be 5 to 10% higher than coastal cities in China. As the costs reduced, the United States has a productive efficiency edge over China.
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U-turn of Goldman Sachs’ attitude toward China4 N, W6 R& l! i) I; E/ v0 g

It was not just the industries that withdrew, but the financial sector as well. In recent months, the Bank of America and Goldman Sachs ended their partnership with Chinese banks. Before they took action, the Bank of America and Merrill Lynch sold about half of their 10% share holdings in China Construction Bank.
Of all the American corporations withdrawn from China, Goldman Sachs’ exit had a symbolic significance. From what I knew, Goldman Sachs had at one point racked it brain in the attempt to take root in China. To achieve this, the company became the most active strategic investor in China’s financial sector. And to get Beijing favor, Goldman Sachs had spent big money to produce clever Public Relations.
These PR techniques included one that Beijing liked best: helped China with its publicity in international community. Published in 2005, written by Joshua Cooper Ramo, senior consultant of Goldman Sachs, Beijing Consensus was a book that disregarded facts, and went as far in flattery as possible.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb, C0 @5 {+ [" y6 j* W5 p
That book not only portrayed China’s economic model—one that disregards social justice, human rights and seriously overdrafts ecological environment—as one with the characteristics of equal and quality development, a development model that seeks fairness and high standard growth; it also said that many of the non-economics ideals the Beijing consensus comprises are not only what developing countries should learn from, but will also replace the “Washington consensus” globally.
This somewhat shameless but highly effective way of pro-China PR had widely been used by other foreign banks. In 2004 [for example], the book the Man Who Changed China: The Life and Legacy of Jiang Zemin was published in the English world and generated much attention. Its author, Robert Lawrence Kuhn, Executive Director of Citigroup (bank), is a person who doesn’t speak Chinese at all. This financial practitioner who is neither a biography writer nor a journalist, even less so a specialist on China’s problems would personally put pen to paper and wrote up this biography, the book’s significance in pro-Beijing PR went without saying.
The market that Citigroup spent such big money and effort on pro-Beijing PR to get access to was abandoned by the corporation, only a fool would think this decision was due to the conglomerate’s own problem. I could only say that these banks have already realized one thing: China market has a grim outlook, and from which it’s time to withdraw.
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Multinationals: Key allies of China lobby

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The withdrawal of multinationals with decisive influence on U.S. political circle means that the crucial link that binds the political and economic relationship between China and the United States has begun to loosen. In the past, given the wide-ranging investment interests in China, these corporations advocated all along for Sino-American friendship and were the main social base of the Panda huggers in the U.S. political and business circles.公仔箱論壇; T4 |  ], Y- k$ P
For years, multinationals carried out much lobbying at Congress so as to realize and protect their investment interests in China. These corporations had in Washington lobbyists serving specifically this purpose and they formed an alliance. Before China joined the WTO, they keenly called on the U.S. government to unconditionally extend the most-favored-nation trading (MFN; Permanent Normal Trade Relations, PNTR after 1998) status to China. As for the issues of China’s dreadful human rights conditions and its autocratic rule, the main reasons with which they lobbied Congress were, “China is on the path of improvement and is moving closer to Western democracy”, “economic development would be conducive to China’s political reform”, “the spread of the Internet would bring press freedom to China” and so on. + |, Q4 Z7 c! u& b# V
Some of these lobbying efforts benefited China significantly. For example, before the U.S. Congress voted on China’s PNTR status in 2000, hundreds of Multinationals like Boeing formed a group and launched a massive lobby campaign. Participants of the campaign included government relations experts from these companies, industry lobby groups and companies specialized in lobbying that these corporations jointly hired. For almost a year, they held huge number of seminars and talks, instilling in Congress the idea that open trade to China would bring huge business opportunity to American enterprises, and they eventually made it. This collective lobbying cost in total $ 112 million. Before this, the highest spending record of collective action from the US business sector was the creation of the North America Free Trade Zone, which totaled in no more than $ 30 million.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。; y% H& V* g' ~6 z% r& I1 p, g
In 2007 the United States promulgated “the People’s Republic of China exports and re-export control policy changes and clarifications and a new Authorization Validated End-User system “, 47 export control products were added. But in the end what prompted the U.S. to reduce the number of controlled products was not the protest from the Chinese government, but rather the lobbying from U.S. multinationals like Boeing, United Technologies and other enterprises.5.39.217.760 H5 {) X% _" z2 U( Z
The Chinese government basically would not openly acknowledge the contributions U.S. multinationals had made to bolster Sino-American friendship. Yet Beijing knew very well that even though it had hired more than twenty professional PR firms to lobby for it in the United States, the effort was far less fruitful than these Multinationals which had deep-rooted connections with local politicians.7 M& [* V: e4 L) a- r8 |! |
After the close tie between the U.S. financial and industrial sectors and China has loosened, the geopolitical conflicts between China and the United States, the inherent conflicts between China and the international system, and clashes between universal values and those of the CCP—the friction factors that had been forcibly suppressed by reason of economic interests will become increasingly evident.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。* k' p' E$ b( v, n2 i- e; v
Undoubtedly, the Sino-American relations are facing new changes. Judging from the current situation, the United States seems to have been psychologically ready, while China is clearly ill-prepared for it. tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb. d4 D9 ^: x' j: ~: k7 v( ^
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