公仔箱論壇 - Powered by Discuz! Board

標題: [時事討論] 化解歐債危機還看鐵娘子盧峯 [打印本頁]

作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-11-29 08:22 AM 標題: 化解歐債危機還看鐵娘子盧峯

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-11-29 08:24 AM 編輯 ! H" m* b; M  K0 s7 }$ q3 q

化解歐債危機還看鐵娘子  盧峯# `0 T6 X# F: V) j: e6 i

TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。7 K) c' j. K( g/ \# i( r
英國名相邱吉爾二戰時候的豪氣、決斷與堅強讓後世人津津樂道。可他從政之路絕非一帆風順，坐冷板凳的時候不少，給同輩政客、學人罵的更多。一九二五年他擔任財相帶領英國重回金本位制度就被經濟學家凱恩斯痛罵，認為邱吉爾死抱過時的金本位教條，硬逼英鎊升值，削弱英國貨的出口競爭力，變相把市場拱手相讓予美國及其他出口大國。凱恩斯還寫了題為“ The Economic Consequences of Mr Churchill”的文章，把他的批評及怒氣一股腦兒併發出來，即使不同意凱恩斯觀點的人也會看得過癮。

前一陣子，《凱恩斯傳》的作者 Robert Skidelsky抄了大師的橋，寫了一篇“ The Consequences of Angela Merkel”批評這位德國總理拘泥反通脹教條，堅持歐豬各國勒緊肚皮緊縮經濟還債並不合理，因為這樣做將令各國越窮越見鬼，收入下降得比財赤下降還要快，到頭來他們還債的能力更受質疑，債務危機更揮之不去。公仔箱論壇" I- ]# Q: h. \$ y% N: w7 I( ~

是不是該把歐債危機糾纏不休的責任放在德國及默克爾身上當然有討論的餘地，但德國及默克爾的確掌握了解決問題的鎖匙。只要德國拿出歐元區第一大國的風範及氣度，讓整個歐元區在危急期間分享她的金漆招牌，分享她的信貸評級，局勢將會大為紓緩，債息將不會屢創新高，歐豬各國包括意大利也可以有喘息的空間。
5.39.217.763 I  O  |- A1 {
歐元區各國同樣發行歐元債券，利息當然有分別，經濟規模小的，風險高的如希臘、葡萄牙政府自然要較龍頭如德國、法國付出較高的利息。市場風平浪靜時，息差不過兩、三厘或更少，大家都相安無事。到現在兵荒馬亂，人人爭相避險，買歐元債券的都寧選德國或至少法國政府的出品，其他歐元區國家政府則被迫付出越來越高的利息以維持還債能力。首先是瀕臨破產的希臘，然後是愛爾蘭、葡萄牙，她們縱使有ＩＭＦ及歐盟一再注資貸款也只能苦苦支撐，因為債息始終降不下來。終於，歐盟及歐元區核心意大利也被拖下來，債券利率升破七厘，半年的債息也升至歷來最高水平。假若債息持續在六、七厘以上，意大利這個國債高達ＧＤＰ百分之一百二十的大國肯定受不了，令金融市場牽起更大的震盪與波瀾。5.39.217.76: T. Z% ^5 j& x6 J% n

為免意大利爆煲甚或蔓延到法國，德國以外的歐元區國家債息必須穩定地調低。而要讓債息下降，德國便不能再袖手旁觀，置身事外，她必須要把自己的信用及金漆招牌押上，變相為新增的歐元債務作擔保。這樣做有兩重涵意，其一是展示強大的政治決心，顯示德國不會臨危逃走，而是跟歐元區共赴一軛。其二是以她的超強經濟實力增強市場的信心，減低歐元區國家賴債的可能性。要知道德國是全球第四大經濟體，又是第一大出口國，有她作保肯定讓投資者放心得多。

時間無多，其他國家快要彈盡糧絕了。德國及默克爾願意改變態度，支持發行歐元區債券讓其他國家借用她的金漆招牌解困嗎？

作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-11-29 08:24 AM

默克爾：左右歐洲的鐵娘子  Quentin Peel

TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。3 ?* d6 w: r. a; q
據說30多年前時任美國國務卿亨利•基辛格(Henry Kissinger)曾經抱怨稱，在打一個電話就能找到拍板人之前，他是不會信任歐洲的。德國暢銷雜志《明星》(Stern)寫道，基辛格現在一定滿意了。現在他隻需要打電話給柏林的“歐羅巴夫人”(Madame Europa)即可——也就是德國總理安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)。《明星》雜志甚至還公布了默克爾辦公室的電話號碼。
8 R* B0 |- o8 L. `
德國人終於遲鈍地發現，他們這位冷靜、可靠、故意顯得毫無光彩的領導人，實際上是整個歐洲的發號施令者。“無論我們喜歡與否，默克爾是當今歐洲最重要的人物。”波恩大學(Bonn University)政治學教授、默克爾傳記的作者格爾德•朗古特(Gerd Langguth)說道。“她本人可能也不喜歡這樣，但越身處事務的中心，她似乎就越是受用。”公仔箱論壇, T( Y2 V& V/ [

隨著上周歐元區主權債務危機引發市場進一步動蕩，這位57歲的前物理學家向歐洲伙伴們呼吁，問題的解決之道是“加強、而非削弱歐洲一體化”，這等於向其他歐洲國家提出了挑戰。在她領導的中右翼政黨基督教民主聯盟(CDU)年會發表講話時，默克爾又引導該黨回歸親歐洲的本源，支持逐步朝著在歐盟(EU)內部建立一個政治聯盟邁進。這不是市場希望聽到的表態，市場想要的是能夠立竿見影地阻止歐元區危機的解決辦法。不過這番表態還是讓基民盟的忠實黨員頗為喜悅。

默克爾對未來的願景足以讓歐盟內部最不熱衷於聯盟的國家（特別是英國）感到警惕。在英國，談及“政治聯盟”這幾個字，就會產生像朝公牛揮動紅布一樣的反應。然而通過說服基民盟對“加強歐洲一體化”抱有希望，默克爾也贏得了回旋余地，能夠更靈活地應對當前危機。

實際上，德國總理默克爾在歐元區債務危機兩年前在希臘爆發、甚至更早以前，就已經主導了歐盟的決策。她也許語言溫和，注重建立共識，但正是她的思想為布魯塞爾設置了議程，確定了危機管理的指導原則。她堅持主張，如果不附帶嚴厲的財政緊縮條件，就不提供救助。她堅決要求私營部門債權人分擔債務減記的負擔。她拒絕讓歐洲央行(ECB)充當最后借款人來停止危機在債券市場的蔓延。9 E. k% P5 `4 J( R

德國媒體喜歡起一些歡迎“鐵血宰相”——像俾斯麥一樣——回歸的文章標題，但這些標題卻沒有展示出她靈活的個性。默克爾生於西德漢堡，卻成長在奉行共產主義的東德。她從圈外空降至基民盟核心，並於2000年取得了男性主導的該黨的控制權，直至現在成為了無人能敵的領袖。公仔箱論壇2 L9 U! i' p) ~; J& ?

默克爾是在1990年兩德統一后由赫爾穆特•科爾(Helmut Kohl)帶進政府的，被樹立為統一后代表東德的標志性女性政治人物。科爾把默克爾稱為“小姑娘”，又把她任命為婦女和青年部長。當時，默克爾並沒有表現出什麼政治野心。她雖然是一位新教牧師的女兒，卻天生政治觸角敏銳。盡管默克爾迷人、有幽默感，但她也頗為冷酷。自從登上權力頂峰，她小心地罷黜了每一個潛在的挑戰者。與科爾一樣，默克爾以她驚人的記憶力而聞名。實際上，讓她出名的是，她決心比一切共事的男性都能更好地掌控問題。與她關系親密的一位前顧問表示，作為一位科學家，默克爾非常希望搞明白事情的原委，而一旦做出決定，她會堅持不懈，除非環境發生變化。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。2 h' g/ `3 [3 D0 z. Z) m( C, Y

過去一年，她曾兩次做出驚人的政策大轉變，並成功說服她所在的政黨遵從她的決定。第一次是在日本福島(Fukushima)核電廠爆發核災難之后，她說服德國政府放棄了延長德國核電站壽命的決定。《How the Chancellor Rules》一書作者瑪格麗特•哈克爾(Margaret Heckel)表示：“作為一名物理學家，她長期以來從未對原子能產生過任何疑慮。”“當福島核事故在日本這樣一個高科技國家發生后，這完全出乎她的預料。她明白，即便是在德國，一些想象不到的事情也可能會發生。”5.39.217.762 D. x9 |) |" |7 `; i: m4 F7 \

不僅如此，她還知道，核能將變得非常不受歡迎，並會提升綠黨(Greens)的支持率。她立即放棄了這一政策。她的第二個政策大轉變就發生於上周：她說服她所領導的基民盟克服保守派的強烈反對，支持最低工資。公仔箱論壇: T+ u, F: |6 ]" {" I
5.39.217.76: E4 G: ~; n0 F9 e3 E- Q  k
如果她在2013年獲得三連任——她目前仍是德國最受歡迎的政治家，她所在的政黨也是該國最大的政黨——她既可以選擇組建一個左傾的聯合政府，也可以組建一個右傾的聯合政府。她首次當選德國總理是在2005年，格哈德•施羅德(Gerhard Schroder)的總理生涯從此落下帷幕，但此后，從沒有任何跡象顯示她喪失了對這一高位的熱情。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。: `3 B+ M) x# M3 N% F# V2 P, ?; T
公仔箱論壇, }$ f! u$ R8 S+ M7 G& O
“她從未停止學習，”哈克爾表示，“這就是為何人們繼續低估她的原因。一旦你對她形成了某種看法，她已經發生了變化。”

“她是個務實的問題解決者，不追究意識形態，”朗古特教授表示，“她隨時會改變立場。她所在的政黨不喜歡這點。他們需要一個始終如一的信仰。但基民盟……知道隻有靠她，他們才能贏得下次選舉。”tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb, W/ V0 @& L8 B5 H0 p/ ~. D& B

批評者們指責她解決此次危機的手段“過少且過遲”，無法穩定市場。進展緩慢的民主進程與金融投資者的即時反應之間的矛盾困擾著她。她不信任市場，並拒絕被催著做出回應。此外，她非常厭惡風險，這讓她受到心存憂慮的選民的喜愛。然而，她內心的務實主義意味著，她可能會改變想法，就像她在核能問題上所做的那樣。& B4 [, S9 v2 s; D. [
' i1 n  Y0 G, h# \. f7 O
另外一位由女科學家變成政府首腦的傳奇性人物瑪格麗特•撒切爾(Margaret Thatcher)曾經說過一句名言：“撒切爾夫人是不會轉彎的。”對於很多現在關注德國的人而言，默克爾似乎也會揮起同樣堅硬無比的手袋這樣說。但不要被蒙蔽了：就像德國媒體所公認的那樣，這位“媽媽”完全是一個更加柔和的人。

作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-11-29 08:26 AM

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-11-29 08:30 AM 編輯

The steely headmistress with Europe in her thrall Quentin Peel公仔箱論壇0 X9 n; t( h# m3 v1 f

More than 30 years ago Henry Kissinger, then US Secretary of State,allegedly complained that he could not believe in Europe until it had a single telephone number to call. He should be happy today, says Germany’s popular Stern magazine.He just has to call “Madame Europa”, alias Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, in Berlin. It even printed her office telephone number.公仔箱論壇% C. \) b0 C7 Q. {' ^* @1 O2 F, }
公仔箱論壇* O* A, X$ Y. g) W
Germany has belatedly discovered that its sober, solid and deliberately unglamorous leader is really the person calling the shots across the continent. “Whether we like it or not, Ms Merkel is the most important person in Europe today,” says Gerd Langguth,politics professor at Bonn university, and a biographer of the chancellor. “She may not like it herself, although the more she is in the centre of things, the more she seems to enjoy it.”公仔箱論壇4 ~: G% Z/ \9 k6 l

As Europe’s sovereign debt crisis further rattled the markets this week the 57-year-old former physicist threwdown the gauntlet to her European partners by calling for “more Europe, not less Europe” as the answer. Addressing the annual congress of her centre-right Christian Democratic Union, she steered the party back to its pro-European roots, in favour of “step-by-step progress towards political union” in the European Union. It was not what the markets wanted to hear. They wanted an instant solution to stem the eurozone crisis.But it delighted the party faithful.公仔箱論壇! O0 V6 x! r* J0 d! Y& K
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb. U8 o8 I) r0 w" m
Ms Merkel’s vision of the future was also more than enough to alarm the least federalist parts of the EU, not least the UK, where the very words“political union” are like waving a red rag to a bull. But by persuading her party that they can hope for “more Europe”, she has won room for manoeuvre to be more flexible in the current crisis.' B, Z, {0 k& n7 U$ [% `% j  p

In truth, the chancellor has dominated decision-making in the EU ever since the eurozone debt crisis began in Greece two years ago, if not before. She may be soft-spoken, a consensus builder, but it is her thinking that has set the agenda in Brussels, and dictated the guidelines of crisis management. She insists there can be no bail-out without drastic austerity conditions. She is adamant private creditors must share the burden of a debt write-down. She refuses to call on the European Central Bank to be the lender of last resort to stop contagion in the bond markets.6 m2 v# l( _% y' n* M2 {- R

Yet popular German headlines that welcome the return of an “Iron Chancellor” – like Bismarck – fail to capture her flexible personality. Born in Hamburg, but brought up in communist East Germany, she came from outside to seize control of the male-dominated CDU in 2000, and is now its unchallenged leader.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb! Z1 N; R+ ]; `- |( A
公仔箱論壇; \( [: `" L4 z7 [: J! t
She was brought into government by Helmut Kohl after unification in 1990, as a token woman from the east after unification. He called her “the girl”, and made her minister for women and youth. At that stage, there was little sign of ambition. She may have been the daughter of a Protestant pastor but she was blessed with acute political antennae. While charming and funny, she can also be ruthless. Since she got to the top, she has carefully removed every potential challenger from office.
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb) C4 V( C: |, T  p
Like Mr Kohl, she is known for her remarkable memory. Indeed she is famous for her determination to master a subject better than any of the men she has to work with. As a scientist, she really wants to understand what makes things tick,according to a former close adviser, and once she has reached a decision, she sticks with it – unless circumstances change.公仔箱論壇  A( L" o' m: o5 P# J

Twice in the past year she has performed remarkable U-turns, and managed to persuade her party to follow her. The first was in reversing her government’s decision to extend the life of Germany’s nuclear power stations,following the nuclear disaster at Japan’s Fukushima plant. “Being a physicist made her feel comfortable with atomic energy for a long time,” says Margaret Heckel, author of “How the Chancellor Rules”. “When Fukushima happened in a high technology country like Japan, it simply was not in her projections. She understood that even in Germany, something unimaginable may happen.”5.39.217.76; S; @. B( ]/ ?4 K8 i- @4 K

Not only that, she knew nuclear power would be very unpopular and boost the votes of the Greens. She dumped the policy overnight. Her second U-turn came this week: she persuaded her CDU to overcome strong conservative objections, and support minimum wages.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。7 w6 g8 q9 F% e4 K+ _( J$ `  f- u
5.39.217.76! V6 |* l, r# U7 {! y+ {
If she wins a third term in 2013 – she is still the most popular German politician, and her party is the largest – she can choose to form a coalition to the left as well as to the right. She first won office in 2005, bringing down the curtain on Gerhard Schroder’s chancellorship but since then has shown no sign of losing her zest for high office.5.39.217.766 i5 |! U1 p* X& u8 o

“She never ceases to learn,” says Ms Heckel. “That is why people continue to underestimate her. Once you have formulated an opinion on her, she has already changed.”5.39.217.766 X( D* v5 J; u( S! F: I/ o" u

“She is a pragmatic problem-solver, not ideological,” says Prof Langguth. “She can change her position from one day to another. Her party does not like that. They want a consistent conviction. But the Christian Democrats ... know that only with her can they win the next election.”

Critics say her approach to the crisis has been “too little, too late” to stabilise the markets. She is obsessed by the contradiction between a slow-moving democratic process, and the instant reaction of financial investors. She mistrusts the markets, and refuses to be rushed to respond. She is also deeply risk-averse,which endears her to anxious voters. Yet the pragmatist in her means she can change her mind, just as she did over nuclear power.4 _7 d, M7 T4 j. X
6 i/ X- J. H' ?& R9 q) g7 D
Margaret Thatcher, that other legendary female scientist turned head of government,famously once declared “the lady’s not for turning.” To many looking on at Germany in now Ms Merkel may seem to wield the same adamantine handbag. But do not be fooled: “Mutti” as she is known in the German media is an altogether more emollient figure.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。: C* {5 I7 W. M
5.39.217.76! x; g+ G6 r3 B

The writer is the FT’s Berlin bureau chief

歡迎光臨公仔箱論壇 (http://5.39.217.76/)