本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-11-29 08:15 AM 編輯 ( a- d& A% f& c5 U6 F1 d9 k' o& G5.39.217.76( \# L5 ^6 o6 x+ R! {* w5 N$ T, m Look behind you,Lucas and Mario Gideon Rachman5.39.217.76. p+ G- P! P0 s5 \
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The arrival of technocratic prime ministers in Greece and Italy has not been greeted with universal applause. Some complain that because Lucas Papademos and Mario Monti have not been elected, their appointments will simply confirm the elitist and undemocratic nature of the European project. # J( H3 V' ~$ I6 B8 T: a/ a* U公仔箱論壇5.39.217.76( F3 }' D _4 \0 P3 I, n3 \" S# y# [
Perhaps so. But technocrats have something to be said for them in the middle of a financial crisis. They are perfectly at home in the world of yield curves and collateralised debt obligations. They understand foreign countries, as well as the markets. If you enter their offices they are unlikely to ask for a bribe or to pinch your bum. Since they are assumed not to want a long-term career in politics, they may be able to take difficult decisions. : k$ y# P: `9 T% lTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 4 ]. A! r+ b. BTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。European technocrats tend to have strikingly similar credentials. Compare the CVs of Mr.Monti, Mr. Papademos and Mario Draghi, the newly arrived head of the European Central Bank. All three men are economists who trained in the US. All three have had topjobs in the bureaucracy of the European Union. Both Mr. Monti and Mr. Draghi have worked for Goldman Sachs., u8 z& R6 O! s, V: L# I3 R
0 P* o* @1 f' u& H( l k6 \) zThese qualifications will please the markets and upset anti-globalists. But Europe, and the world at large,has every reason to hope that Messrs Monti and Papademos can work miracles. For if the technocrats fail to do so, the extremists are waiting in the wings.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5 _9 W3 X* O2 R1 o. k" M
6 j, h$ M- q% i r8 _4 D" E# QTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。In Greece, about a quarter of the electorate now say that they favour parties of the far left, and a further 8 per cent back the nationalist right.Collectively, the political extremes in Greece now muster more support than either of the two mainstream parties. The shape of Italian politics, after the forced resignation of Silvio Berlusconi, is likely to be confused for awhile. But Italy has spawned powerful communist and far right movements in the past. In the meantime, Umberto Bossi of the Northern League says that he will relish entering opposition – where he can rail against the EU, immigrants and southern Italians.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。3 u* A m/ M, s- ]8 Z/ E, m0 W
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The radicalisation of politics is just as visible in the creditor nations of Europe as amongst the debtors.Marine Le Pen of the far right National Front will have a big impact on the2012 presidential election in France, although she is unlikely to win. In the Netherlands the government is now reliant on the votes of the Freedom party led by Geert Wilders, which is running second in the polls. Austria’s far right Freedom party is at level pegging in the polls with the governing People’s party. In Finland the nationalist True Finns are still gaining ground and are easily over 20 per cent in the polls. 2 X# T ^" E' ~6 I/ S( X' w- p4 I$ Qtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb $ \& P, A- ?7 c H$ @$ |公仔箱論壇All of these rising parties rail against “elites”, whether in Brussels, Wall Street or their own governments. They are all hostile to globalisation and to immigration,particularly from the Muslim world. Some parts of the European far right, such as the Jobbik party in Hungary, still play on traditional anti-Semitic themes. But others, like Mr Wilders in the Netherlands, are strongly pro-Israel,perhaps because they see the Jewish state as an ally in a clash of civilisations with the Muslim world.3 M: _4 l1 F4 d% j7 g
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Increasingly,however, Europe’s populists are intent on breaking out of the electoral ghetto of hostility to immigration – and are instead stressing economic and eurosceptic themes that have a broader appeal.9 G$ `0 W' @2 Y! E. H& ]% w
' @/ z& t8 ]( D, K! JTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。All the populist parties are deeply sceptical of the EU, which they see as promoting most of the things they abhor: multiculturalism, international capitalism, the erosion of national borders and the erasure of national currencies.1 e$ f2 s: M1 f( U5 M' ^( j Z
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Ms Le Pen campaigns to withdraw France from the euro, impose tariff barriers and roll back the Schengen agreement on free movement of people across the EU. Mr Wilders, who was once a single-issue anti-Islam politician,has just announced he is investigating the possibility of the Netherlands ditching the euro and going back to the guilder. Polls show that a majority of the Dutch population now regret joining the European single currency. ' j3 [ M, U8 K* O2 [4 \tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5.39.217.765 D8 t& i% C# ]; r
For the moment, across Europe, there is no party of the far right or the far left that looks close to winning power through the ballot box. Generally the mainstream parties can still band together to keep the extremes out. But it would still be a big mistake to write the populists and extremists off.: p* }+ x0 G+ x8 G$ E& o& e( y7 M7 e
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These groups are already powerful enough to strongly influence the debate. Mainstream politicians in creditor nations such as Finland, the Netherlands and Slovakia say that, after the Greek bail-out, they could not possibly vote for a further package of loans for Italy – the voters would revolt and turn to the political extremes. In France, debates on immigration and on economic policy have clearly been pulled right by the National Front. 4 i) k, n: o4 {- B公仔箱論壇5.39.217.76- F# S" `3 n, {1 o
All this is happening in an economic situation that is bad – but not yet catastrophic. Imagine, however, what the European political landscape would look like if banks started to collapse, people lost their savings and their jobs, and there was another deep recession. At that point voters would be desperate and disillusioned enough to turn to the extremist parties in much larger numbers.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。& J: J( ^5 Y4 e% h
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So a great deal is riding on the ability of the technocrats to stabilise their national economies, calm the bond markets and prevent another financial crisis and a disorderly break-up of the euro.; t+ w% Q. o( R
1 `. C3 m" M" w; n7 R* G. \, l0 K公仔箱論壇The trouble is that, while Messrs Monti, Papademos and Draghi are very able men,they are not miracle-workers. The danger is that the situation in Europe may now be too far gone for even the most steely and brilliant of technocrats to turn things around.作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-11-29 08:11 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-11-29 08:17 AM 編輯 ; e# t3 C% j X) D* z0 G* \3 ltvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 7 S% x0 a8 y* h9 u3 p- X7 A5.39.217.76Europe's left has vanished from the map Gulf Stream Blues2 x7 P1 Q6 h% M" q' {0 S# U( E
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$ z4 r' q# H+ L : K& ]* F8 ~; T( a0 h3 x- E/ s + F' j5 l) a [+ e2 X; E. E9 a5.39.217.76It's a process that's been long in the making, but this weekend's election in Spain seemed to be the final nail in the coffin for European Democratic Socialism - at least for the moment. With the fall of the Socialist government of Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero in Spain, following on the heels of the fall of Socialist prime minister George Papandreou in Greece two weeks ago, the EU is now left with only two centre-left governments - Denmark and Austria. 1 A& y- S/ B' o& l4 V- r- Gtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb * y9 i( j6 @% Q, HTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。The already dwindling left was already not in a good position, with just five centre-left governments out of the 27 EU states at the beginning of the year.Four of those governments have since fallen, including the collapse of the Slovenian government in September (new elections, which the Left is certain to lose, will be held next month). Only the Austrian government has survived, and they were joined by the Danish social democrats who won a trend-defying election in September. Cyprus, which has a communist (butin truth more nationalist) government, does not sit with the centre-right grouping in Europe.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb6 n" F1 Y* o7 t& {8 {; x4 k
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At the same time, five governments now have provisional or technocratic governments - effectively under the control of the markets and the dominant centre-right governments of Europe. The presidencies of the three institutions of EU governance - the commission, the parliament and the council - are all held by the centre-right. The situation is unprecedented. The irony is, at this time of crisis when Europe seems to be tearing itself apart, the governments of Europe have never been so ideologically united - at least in terms of the left-right divide.公仔箱論壇* d* D, w- k) d) X
% D% C; f* w& L) iThe one country that has bucked the rightward trend, Denmark, will take over the rotating EU ministerial presidency at the end of the year. There will be many on the left who will be looking to Denmark's new prime minister, Helle Thorning-Schmidt , to represent their interests as the only voice of the Left at EU level during the presidency term in the first half of2012. It's much like the way the Left was looking to Zapatero when Spain held the rotating presidency in 2009. 4 E L# p3 L1 ]+ M6 d* p3 `3 M5.39.217.76 - Q$ L8 u6 C% W+ e6 P3 N% a2 YTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。But Zapatero never sought out a leadership role at European level, and so far Thorning-Schmidt also seems hesitant to take up the mantle. Even if Denmark holds the presidency, it would be hard for them to forcefully put forward the positions of the European left when that only represents the governments of two small countries.公仔箱論壇; c( J1 ?$ v6 ^* c) c3 b) Z
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But that could all change depending on the results of the French election in May of next year. Sarkozy's poll numbers are plunging lower by the day, and his loss of the French senateto the left in September seemed a harbinger of things to come. If Socialistcandidate Francois Hollande wins in May it would fundamentally change theEuropean political landscape and could reverse the left's decline. With thesupport of the government of the EU's second largest country, Denmark may feel more confident in promoting a Leftist solution to the European crisis. 1 Y5 f! I5 L L; B9 n/ r5.39.217.76 5 I" G" R- m Q* |But if Hollande loses and Sarkozy is elected for a second term, it is hard to seethe European left regaining relevance again any time soon.
