v4 N. A/ Z) Q9 B) k+ E公仔箱論壇希臘和意大利技術官僚總理走馬上任並沒有受到普遍的贊譽。一些人抱怨，盧卡斯•帕帕季莫斯(Lucas Papademos)和馬裡奧•蒙蒂(Mario Monti)並非經過選舉，因此由他們擔任總理隻是印証了歐洲一體化計劃精英主義、不民主的本質。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb$ s7 O& N0 ~3 W, E o5 A) R
' D' H9 t, n1 w或許的確如此。但在金融危機之中，技術官僚有值得稱道之處。他們對收益率曲線和債務抵押債券(CDO)熟稔於心，他們既了解外國，又了解市場。如果你走進他們的辦公室，他們不大可能索取賄賂，也不會捏你的屁股。而鑒於他們在人們看來是無意長期從政的，或許他們有能力做出艱難的抉擇。 ' c% U! L% N7 ^( i公仔箱論壇$ u, y, y* x1 q: I z) ]( h
歐洲技術官僚們的資歷大都驚人地相似。可以比較一下蒙蒂、帕帕季莫斯和歐洲央行(ECB)新行長馬裡奧•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)的履歷，他們三人都是曾在美國接受教育的經濟學家，三人都曾在歐盟(EU)官僚機構中擔任過高級職務，蒙蒂和德拉吉還都曾在高盛(Goldman Sachs)供職。 ^7 o1 v! M8 ftvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 0 [; G/ p4 R7 W6 a5.39.217.76他們的資歷會合市場的意，但會讓反全球化人士不滿。不過歐洲，甚至全世界，都有充分的理由希望蒙蒂和帕帕季莫斯能夠創造奇跡。因為如果這兩位技術官僚失敗，極端主義者就會迫不及待地登上舞台。公仔箱論壇8 I# c/ s U7 \* i; A
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-11-29 08:15 AM 編輯 tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb( O+ N! M8 M; X6 \& N3 w& n/ e( d
4 Y1 P ^' \6 M; [5 z4 Q" `8 QLook behind you,Lucas and Mario Gideon Rachman公仔箱論壇# k( t5 ^+ }7 O) j/ w E: ?
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The arrival of technocratic prime ministers in Greece and Italy has not been greeted with universal applause. Some complain that because Lucas Papademos and Mario Monti have not been elected, their appointments will simply confirm the elitist and undemocratic nature of the European project. " n4 O p- w, s, n* a2 L5.39.217.76 . h- z/ m% z3 @) b公仔箱論壇Perhaps so. But technocrats have something to be said for them in the middle of a financial crisis. They are perfectly at home in the world of yield curves and collateralised debt obligations. They understand foreign countries, as well as the markets. If you enter their offices they are unlikely to ask for a bribe or to pinch your bum. Since they are assumed not to want a long-term career in politics, they may be able to take difficult decisions.5.39.217.76: z W. f+ _: V. M' X
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European technocrats tend to have strikingly similar credentials. Compare the CVs of Mr.Monti, Mr. Papademos and Mario Draghi, the newly arrived head of the European Central Bank. All three men are economists who trained in the US. All three have had topjobs in the bureaucracy of the European Union. Both Mr. Monti and Mr. Draghi have worked for Goldman Sachs. 8 R: w, ~& w3 a2 T公仔箱論壇4 Y) K& A' K& Q, B: m2 \. Y1 ~
These qualifications will please the markets and upset anti-globalists. But Europe, and the world at large,has every reason to hope that Messrs Monti and Papademos can work miracles. For if the technocrats fail to do so, the extremists are waiting in the wings.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb8 l3 p- z* T: s7 E- r5 q6 B
( c1 z/ l; B- G) ]" D( j5.39.217.76In Greece, about a quarter of the electorate now say that they favour parties of the far left, and a further 8 per cent back the nationalist right.Collectively, the political extremes in Greece now muster more support than either of the two mainstream parties. The shape of Italian politics, after the forced resignation of Silvio Berlusconi, is likely to be confused for awhile. But Italy has spawned powerful communist and far right movements in the past. In the meantime, Umberto Bossi of the Northern League says that he will relish entering opposition – where he can rail against the EU, immigrants and southern Italians. 3 X" H2 H- c' \% P0 i4 J( a, P2 h 5 V- E6 V, K% r7 PThe radicalisation of politics is just as visible in the creditor nations of Europe as amongst the debtors.Marine Le Pen of the far right National Front will have a big impact on the2012 presidential election in France, although she is unlikely to win. In the Netherlands the government is now reliant on the votes of the Freedom party led by Geert Wilders, which is running second in the polls. Austria’s far right Freedom party is at level pegging in the polls with the governing People’s party. In Finland the nationalist True Finns are still gaining ground and are easily over 20 per cent in the polls. 3 y( H t2 E2 c* v; e# gTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5 y# O4 w* ^8 n' w- s7 x. V9 R, O
All of these rising parties rail against “elites”, whether in Brussels, Wall Street or their own governments. They are all hostile to globalisation and to immigration,particularly from the Muslim world. Some parts of the European far right, such as the Jobbik party in Hungary, still play on traditional anti-Semitic themes. But others, like Mr Wilders in the Netherlands, are strongly pro-Israel,perhaps because they see the Jewish state as an ally in a clash of civilisations with the Muslim world. # I8 h- N& B2 W9 Vtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 0 G# b1 f9 c: e& P5 p5.39.217.76Increasingly,however, Europe’s populists are intent on breaking out of the electoral ghetto of hostility to immigration – and are instead stressing economic and eurosceptic themes that have a broader appeal.公仔箱論壇3 C y$ c7 B# Q# i
( @. T5 [ j* C; g( FAll the populist parties are deeply sceptical of the EU, which they see as promoting most of the things they abhor: multiculturalism, international capitalism, the erosion of national borders and the erasure of national currencies.5.39.217.765 k7 S' u/ `- m
2 \7 W. \3 Z9 g- I- `: n3 Vtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbMs Le Pen campaigns to withdraw France from the euro, impose tariff barriers and roll back the Schengen agreement on free movement of people across the EU. Mr Wilders, who was once a single-issue anti-Islam politician,has just announced he is investigating the possibility of the Netherlands ditching the euro and going back to the guilder. Polls show that a majority of the Dutch population now regret joining the European single currency. ' L, T. m& r! Z7 Y, D' W# otvb now,tvbnow,bttvb : i( q% V8 q6 @4 u' Q; f$ qtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbFor the moment, across Europe, there is no party of the far right or the far left that looks close to winning power through the ballot box. Generally the mainstream parties can still band together to keep the extremes out. But it would still be a big mistake to write the populists and extremists off./ h5 @% {) m; ~# D5 h4 z
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These groups are already powerful enough to strongly influence the debate. Mainstream politicians in creditor nations such as Finland, the Netherlands and Slovakia say that, after the Greek bail-out, they could not possibly vote for a further package of loans for Italy – the voters would revolt and turn to the political extremes. In France, debates on immigration and on economic policy have clearly been pulled right by the National Front.5.39.217.761 e! t0 t, z+ J- _* a6 v
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All this is happening in an economic situation that is bad – but not yet catastrophic. Imagine, however, what the European political landscape would look like if banks started to collapse, people lost their savings and their jobs, and there was another deep recession. At that point voters would be desperate and disillusioned enough to turn to the extremist parties in much larger numbers. J5 Z9 Y" U. q' j K% o, o* C( ~: U' FTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb6 u: @. Z" b, q# T" I. l
So a great deal is riding on the ability of the technocrats to stabilise their national economies, calm the bond markets and prevent another financial crisis and a disorderly break-up of the euro. 3 m8 Z+ d$ {. O$ m- Itvb now,tvbnow,bttvb1 K4 ~- h+ A! m% N% d
The trouble is that, while Messrs Monti, Papademos and Draghi are very able men,they are not miracle-workers. The danger is that the situation in Europe may now be too far gone for even the most steely and brilliant of technocrats to turn things around.作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-11-29 08:11 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-11-29 08:17 AM 編輯 4 I# B. a1 j/ M* u, m6 m 6 a `2 J- E* X: S3 Q) V: tEurope's left has vanished from the map Gulf Stream Blues ) l9 S0 R, J9 `% i2 ?/ L% v4 w) V5.39.217.76 9 s, [' A. m x7 \公仔箱論壇TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( r$ j2 i' {3 h) ~% v1 ^, a
[attach]1531455[/attach] ! V3 b- H5 l3 W. ATVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 " p+ ]: O: F+ a4 [- D, |1 Y3 G/ z - t- Y: ?; @5 k: g. e' y6 g* s* @( S8 G9 _2 K9 V* X
It's a process that's been long in the making, but this weekend's election in Spain seemed to be the final nail in the coffin for European Democratic Socialism - at least for the moment. With the fall of the Socialist government of Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero in Spain, following on the heels of the fall of Socialist prime minister George Papandreou in Greece two weeks ago, the EU is now left with only two centre-left governments - Denmark and Austria. ' K/ H3 Q2 ~4 N2 N- h+ Y公仔箱論壇 E" p, v+ i$ f公仔箱論壇The already dwindling left was already not in a good position, with just five centre-left governments out of the 27 EU states at the beginning of the year.Four of those governments have since fallen, including the collapse of the Slovenian government in September (new elections, which the Left is certain to lose, will be held next month). Only the Austrian government has survived, and they were joined by the Danish social democrats who won a trend-defying election in September. Cyprus, which has a communist (butin truth more nationalist) government, does not sit with the centre-right grouping in Europe.公仔箱論壇4 Z+ r9 [4 V. A* ^
. L. O5 H3 T% v$ k. M% [TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。At the same time, five governments now have provisional or technocratic governments - effectively under the control of the markets and the dominant centre-right governments of Europe. The presidencies of the three institutions of EU governance - the commission, the parliament and the council - are all held by the centre-right. The situation is unprecedented. The irony is, at this time of crisis when Europe seems to be tearing itself apart, the governments of Europe have never been so ideologically united - at least in terms of the left-right divide.5.39.217.76" P' t2 o/ Z8 a5 C4 Y8 a O
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The one country that has bucked the rightward trend, Denmark, will take over the rotating EU ministerial presidency at the end of the year. There will be many on the left who will be looking to Denmark's new prime minister, Helle Thorning-Schmidt , to represent their interests as the only voice of the Left at EU level during the presidency term in the first half of2012. It's much like the way the Left was looking to Zapatero when Spain held the rotating presidency in 2009. ( `, _/ F1 |. x2 B" O$ z+ r 0 {: O9 ?* o- }4 w9 K0 aBut Zapatero never sought out a leadership role at European level, and so far Thorning-Schmidt also seems hesitant to take up the mantle. Even if Denmark holds the presidency, it would be hard for them to forcefully put forward the positions of the European left when that only represents the governments of two small countries. i6 E9 r% d# }, z
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But that could all change depending on the results of the French election in May of next year. Sarkozy's poll numbers are plunging lower by the day, and his loss of the French senateto the left in September seemed a harbinger of things to come. If Socialistcandidate Francois Hollande wins in May it would fundamentally change theEuropean political landscape and could reverse the left's decline. With thesupport of the government of the EU's second largest country, Denmark may feel more confident in promoting a Leftist solution to the European crisis." O% A& B# H& o, ]0 p6 Q
$ y1 P: l4 R3 r7 |1 u2 f4 Ptvb now,tvbnow,bttvbBut if Hollande loses and Sarkozy is elected for a second term, it is hard to seethe European left regaining relevance again any time soon.
