本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-11-26 07:12 AM 編輯 5.39.217.76) c7 U2 f3 s% t
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( V% I: i Z4 G/ [ 中國金融體系的真正風險 黃育川( S, K9 B. I9 w0 ? {
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國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)最近對中國金融穩定性的評估突顯出，中國政府在信貸過程中扮演的角色和不靈活的利率政策，正日益帶來風險。那些認為銀行部門的缺陷有可能引發金融崩盤的人，對中國的實際負利率和由之帶來的大量投機活動提出了嚴厲指責。他們認為，在全球金融危機期間高度依賴信貸擴張來刺激經濟的做法，最終會導致不良貸款的飆升。所有這些，都被看作金融壓制戰略的一部分，推遲了中國四大國有銀行成為真正的商業銀行那一天的到來。$ N: P. l6 n. H
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但專注於這些浮現的金融風險，實際上隻是從問題的表面症狀著手，而沒有理解和著眼於它的根源。數十年前，當鄧小平啟動刺激經濟增長的改革措施的時候，他需要獲得資源來擴大沿海地區的投資。但這位共產黨領導人面臨一個現實：到20世紀90年代中期，政府收入已降至僅佔國內生產總值(GDP)的11%，唯一的選擇就是利用銀行體系中的家庭儲蓄。雖然此后政府收入一直穩步上升，但目前中國國家預算仍然隻佔GDP的25%，而其它中等收入國家的這一比率平均為35%，經合組織(OECD)經濟體平均為40%以上。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。+ ?& Q; d% s' g5 \2 c% }2 O
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-11-26 07:16 AM 編輯 ) p7 Q+ t. [, X5 o j
: z( `6 G, F! C: NTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Banks’ role won’t change until the status quo becomes unsustainable( c7 ~' r0 }6 L* }6 K; r By Kerry Browntvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5 O) e, m$ ^6 y& E6 m! `( F3 u4 D
" Y+ Q$ U. b9 Q5 C0 t7 T1 N . Y3 h3 `6 i) V8 M5.39.217.76The function of banks in China is very particular, as Yukon Huang argues, but it is unlikely to change any time soon. When the country entered the World Trade Organisation almost exactly ten years ago,there was great excitement about the potential impact of liberalisation on its banks, with competition from outside, the opening up of new markets, and the general internationalisation of the biggest players. A decade on, we can see that banks still preserve their unique position in the Chinese firmament, as protected agents of the state, and of the Communist party in particular. Their remit is narrow, and they are used as accomplices for the provincial and central governments’ greater budgetary purposes.公仔箱論壇) \) ^8 K: O8 L G3 k
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Almost all Chinese banks are state-owned (with the possible exception of the partially-private Mingsheng bank), and that they march to the tune of government policy, in ways that banks elsewhere would find unimaginable. But to fundamentally change this would involve unleashing reforms in other areas of state-society-commerce relations, which the current leadership have shown they are profoundly resistant to. To them, the one lesson to be drawn from the global financial crises since 2008 is that state direction and involvement in enterprises, and in particular in those in the finance and banking sector, has been vindicated, and shown to be a good thing. All the shouting from outside China in the late 1990s urged them alter the banking model and to adopt ones more like those in the west,with high levels of entrepreneurship, but also risk. But if there is one thing this leadership dislike, that is risk. 5 h9 C$ N. [0 h" ?% d9 k5.39.217.769 W/ J3 u$ W) U2 s9 I# t* E9 A6 _! p
It could be that as levels of provincial indebtedness grow, and issues of hidden loans and financial irregularities become harder to ignore, the government will start to clarify the roles of banks a little more clearly, and set tighter conditions on how they work with local, and national, government, and with party and business elites and their interests. However, this would have to be part of a bigger push for reform. But systemic reforms redefining the role of the party within society – that have been ongoing since 1980 – have yet to have a major breakthrough. At the moment, status quo is sustainable, and in the party’s political interests. So status quo is likely to be, in the short to medium term, how things stay. In the long term, of course, there will have to be reform – but that will always remain best for another day.- o3 b! A9 `- u* j+ [
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。3 y7 X" P. l2 p3 F* Z0 S5 f
, Z# A0 c; [( [: g9 G! l0 WTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。The writer is head of the Asia Programme at Chatham House
