; H; W% u2 S7 _& \5 s5.39.217.76中國需要進行金融改革，這一點無可辯駁，但北京方面的真正挑戰是，承認增強財政體系、使之以更透明、更不易損害穩定的方式滿足支出要求的重要性。除非領導人下決心這樣做，否則關於中國應採取更靈活的貨幣政策、改善關鍵金融機構治理的勸告，將繼續是對牛彈琴。 0 y( G4 x6 @0 P5 n8 z. T& f # C- p# S, r v4 m, ]) {不幸的是，使歐元區和美國都陷入癱瘓的預算問題，在此無法被引以為鑒。中國政府驚訝地看著歐美各國政治領導人，為了達成加強本國財政狀況的一致意見而苦苦掙扎。這種情況隻是強化了中國的觀點：在應對不可預測的全球經濟方面，預算程序在政治上太礙事了。這使得如下情況的可能性進一步加大了：北京方面將繼續利用銀行體系，去做一些教科書上從不認為恰當的事。' H0 ]; q' T5 U5 s( B' n
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-11-26 07:16 AM 編輯 " i0 B8 o: T9 n& a4 x# j) s 3 ?8 w- t# i! L5 G$ KTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Banks’ role won’t change until the status quo becomes unsustainable公仔箱論壇1 H* E" l# A/ e1 u/ X5 g7 r By Kerry BrownTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。& U8 M/ `: d" D
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb- l6 N. P# o8 l m/ r2 \
' q, ]6 g8 P1 c3 {3 m7 ^: O2 otvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThe function of banks in China is very particular, as Yukon Huang argues, but it is unlikely to change any time soon. When the country entered the World Trade Organisation almost exactly ten years ago,there was great excitement about the potential impact of liberalisation on its banks, with competition from outside, the opening up of new markets, and the general internationalisation of the biggest players. A decade on, we can see that banks still preserve their unique position in the Chinese firmament, as protected agents of the state, and of the Communist party in particular. Their remit is narrow, and they are used as accomplices for the provincial and central governments’ greater budgetary purposes. ! T t5 z5 h- d9 y$ D5 I5.39.217.76 - g9 I6 K. G* ~- e( C4 x* gAlmost all Chinese banks are state-owned (with the possible exception of the partially-private Mingsheng bank), and that they march to the tune of government policy, in ways that banks elsewhere would find unimaginable. But to fundamentally change this would involve unleashing reforms in other areas of state-society-commerce relations, which the current leadership have shown they are profoundly resistant to. To them, the one lesson to be drawn from the global financial crises since 2008 is that state direction and involvement in enterprises, and in particular in those in the finance and banking sector, has been vindicated, and shown to be a good thing. All the shouting from outside China in the late 1990s urged them alter the banking model and to adopt ones more like those in the west,with high levels of entrepreneurship, but also risk. But if there is one thing this leadership dislike, that is risk. ; S" L* A" E/ RTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 " \( Q. Y) a$ }: n1 ]( r5 C. kTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。It could be that as levels of provincial indebtedness grow, and issues of hidden loans and financial irregularities become harder to ignore, the government will start to clarify the roles of banks a little more clearly, and set tighter conditions on how they work with local, and national, government, and with party and business elites and their interests. However, this would have to be part of a bigger push for reform. But systemic reforms redefining the role of the party within society – that have been ongoing since 1980 – have yet to have a major breakthrough. At the moment, status quo is sustainable, and in the party’s political interests. So status quo is likely to be, in the short to medium term, how things stay. In the long term, of course, there will have to be reform – but that will always remain best for another day. + F+ j; q% o& G' Y; L6 j+ O0 ]TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb$ E* ~7 O% P. ]4 Z6 j- B: _9 B
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb0 \4 X% n( B. ?- p: T* @+ { The writer is head of the Asia Programme at Chatham House
