( y. E# G, N7 a) g/ E% c公仔箱論壇澳大利亞也許會發現，自己開創了又一個地緣政治先例——它將成為被夾在當今兩大強國當中的首批國家之一。作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-11-21 07:37 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-11-21 07:41 AM 編輯 m, t/ ~' a+ ~8 g- y公仔箱論壇tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb- R" i, c$ Q8 Q; `/ [ Working with Washington is threat to cosy ties with ChinaTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。# n( v+ x' c2 l* w1 y' S0 E
By Geoff Dyer in Washington - N; u6 u: p0 n; i8 W% Y公仔箱論壇7 C9 y) Q m# b4 C. Z( _
/ s8 x+ r9 }6 s2 B- r公仔箱論壇In 1942, the Japanese air force dropped more bombs over Darwin than they had used at Pearl Harbor and in the process turned Australia into a rock-solid ally of the US. On Thursday, Barack Obama visited the same northern Australian town and re-cast the alliance for a new era.5.39.217.76 [9 T9 a# A% I; u+ A0 V# L
The numbers of American marines to be based in Darwin may be modest but the strategic significance is not. The beefed-up security pact with Australia is a hugely important episode in the growing geopolitical contest between China and the US over the future of Asia. ; W3 Y$ A% |: D3 _$ SFor the past three decades, Australia has served as a sort of early-warning system for the rise of China. To understand the effect China is having on the world, Australia has been a good place to start.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb: Z" n$ D1 m2 m, F
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Prodded by some far-sighted diplomats, Australia was one of the first countries to wake up to the economic potential of China. In 1985, then Prime Minister Bob Hawke took Chinese leader Hu Yaobang on a personal tour of the Pilbara, a remote stretch of Western Australia with vast deposits of iron ore. In a way, it was the start of the current commodities boom. Since then,ever-larger slabs of the iron-rich red earth have been transported to China to make the steel for China’s mammoth urbanisation.5.39.217.760 j, n% y% T: P# Z5 E
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Australia’s think-tanks and universities have many of the best China-watchers in the English-speaking world and in Kevin Rudd, it had the first Chinese-speaking prime minister of a western country (Mr Rudd is now foreign minister). ( f7 N' x3 a9 j+ v9 s" _tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb$ ~/ \# ~# ?' N8 {8 j: @( l, b. F
Australians were also well ahead of the pack in being rattled by China’s state-owned industry. In2009, Stern Hu, an Australian citizen of Chinese origin who worked for Australian miner Rio Tinto, was arrested by the Chinese authorities on charges of stealing state secrets. The charges were reduced to industrial espionage and Mr Hu admitted to taking bribes, receiving a 10-year prison sentence, but the suspicion lingered that his prosecution was partly the result of a dispute between the miners and Beijing over iron ore prices. $ E9 T3 s- C" D, J' E1 pTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。9 W6 l( e) i, V2 `& i6 k+ `
Given the importance of China to its economy, Australia might have been expected to drift away from its close links with the US, which were forged in the heat of the Second World War. “You could not get much closer to China than we are,” the former Australian ambassador to Beijing Geoff Raby used to joke. “But we will.”+ O/ o: H) e& l$ D9 z% t, e
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Yet the fact that Canberra is doubling-up on its defense alliance with Washington is one of the most powerful indicators of the way that Beijing has unnerved the rest of the Asia-Pacific region in the past few years with its more abrasive diplomacy.While Mr Obama was in Australia, Hillary Clinton, US Secretary of State, was in the Philippines, another regional neighbour that has watched Chinese behaviour with growing apprehension and which is celebrating a 60-year security pact with the US. She agreed to provide Manila with a new warship. : |% @5 k. g; U K公仔箱論壇The calculation in Canberra and other capitals around the region is that they can continue to have it both ways – trading freely with a booming China while continuing to benefit from the security umbrella provided by the US. With a greater show of unity and renewed American engagement in the region, these countries hope, China’s more disruptive instincts can be curtailed and the Asian boom will continue apace. + E' c) E' L8 b4 p$ ?% |5.39.217.76 ' O3 E* L# {, ^0 atvb now,tvbnow,bttvbBut all that assumes the geopolitical rivalry between the US and China does not escalate. There is another potential future that could await Australia, which would involve some much more painful choices. Suppose one of the skirmishes between Chinese and US ships in the South China Sea were to escalate. With American marines and kit on its territory, Australia could find itself pulled into a conflict between its security guarantor and its main market. - v/ N6 t F+ `( s; t% }+ Q5.39.217.76Australia would then find itself blazing another geopolitical trail, as one of the first countries to be squeezed between the two great powers of the age.作者: norman.ho 時間: 2011-11-21 05:38 PM
: k$ L Z1 S- R3 E# O) ?( H# \Australia, a resource rich, military strong and sovereign country, by inviting the US navy to station at Darwin, is acting like a spoilt brat craving for drug; prostituting herself, not for money, but to get high.作者: aa00 時間: 2011-11-22 12:48 PM
北京無奈澳美軍盟 1 g: Y3 `$ b$ v( h. ]7 ~公仔箱論壇tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb! L" ?$ m. H. `
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美國總統奧巴馬宣稱，美國向澳洲派駐海軍陸戰隊將增加至二千五百名。北京方面評論美國這計劃「不適當」。澳洲國防部長史密斯反唇相譏說，中國在澳美軍事同盟問題上的反應是「適度而慎重的」，西方紳士外交語言的背後是「無奈和克制的」。 * E* f; M' L, `, ~9 r1 k- @% u- Ctvb now,tvbnow,bttvb " x) s J+ p9 W; g / `2 t! p; R, M8 a) Z; H8 {史密斯很清楚，北京一向反對周邊國家結成軍事同盟，因為缺乏軍事盟友的中國情願同鄰國一個個解決雙邊問題；但是，周邊小國不會單獨面對人口及版圖龐大的中國，何況她還在經濟和軍事上迅速膨脹！所以，澳美必須保持軍事同盟關係。 0 T4 Q8 J3 X: V/ U# M) mTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5.39.217.767 e% K6 j; s0 M8 l: w
而且，史密斯要北京清楚，澳洲一直認為，美國在亞太地區代表了和平、安全與繁榮的力量，而且將會繼續下去。那麼誰反對美國「重返亞洲」，誰就是不和平、不安全與不繁榮的力量。此外，他還否認澳美將在靠近印尼的柯克斯島設立聯合軍事基地。 " s+ X5 }& g, A0 T3 V5.39.217.76公仔箱論壇 z9 \& v& t3 t, {
不但澳洲國防部長反華的詞鋒犀利，連澳洲外交部長陸克文也老實不客氣。中國外交部發言人質疑澳美加強軍事同盟是否符合該地區和平和發展的潮流，陸克文表示：「我們不希望自己的國家安全政策由其他外部勢力來說三道四，這是澳洲的主權問題。」他說：「我們不會對中國的國家安全政策說三道四。所以，我們必須相互尊重。」這位華語流利的前總理曾經被北京樂觀人士譽為親中派，如今才知道洋人學好普通話是用來罵你說三道四，干預內政。5 ^) u% ~+ I6 ~1 \+ r" }5 O
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陸克文還反對中國媒體所謂「美軍駐軍澳洲將使得南中國海發生戰事時，澳洲會成為目標」的說法。他認為，公開作這樣的猜測是輕率和錯誤的。 4 f+ F7 q, h; Q; F" Z8 v$ `, FTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, X$ p$ Q- y7 n% j$ E; x- A
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司馬成 : ]1 t& m) u1 wTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 ! Q" ^: {5 J1 y: T! O5.39.217.76 ( L, y6 B/ s4 m9 b; cTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。公仔箱論壇1 V" V/ J& d+ e. p, g
- {8 ^7 B7 K8 r! y: `. |) NI don't think the stationing of US navy at Darwin really post any threat to China as such; the US strategy is to create tension at the Asian Pacific region in order to slow down the economic and military collaboration among the Asian countries. & l5 B" K- `9 R/ j8 W& k
As all Asian countries are in the process of developing their industrial and commercial sectors, no country would want to go to war, even when being push. Take the example of India and Pakistan; there has been various terrorist attacks at the heart of India, yet they are still busy talking about trade and military cooperation. We all know any war between any Asian country is guaranteed to be a loose loose situation.5.39.217.76% O) E- s! E: t9 w) E4 c
It's only the US and a couple of the European countries that wants war or civil war in Asia; so the rise of economic status of Asia could be stifled. I am sure no country would fall for it.作者: aa00 時間: 2011-11-23 08:43 AM
美澳同稱溫家寶「有分寸」 ) C+ g5 g0 ]8 L8 Z+ T5.39.217.76溫家寶在印尼峇里島與以美國為首的新圍堵中國勢力交手，說出了一句「來而不往非禮也」，周一本欄解讀，指溫總的「往」僅重申中國在南海問題的立場而已，並不是你做初一，我做十五，更不是人若犯我，我必犯人。所以，美國和澳洲都稱讚中國的反應「有分寸」。5.39.217.76, u( u p$ ^0 d) K V& E1 N" G
第四代擊鼓傳炸彈 " f/ ]) F0 b+ b& L0 r筆者觀察，固然溫家寶心在推進改革，外交大戰略歸胡錦濤管，不歸他管，而他對軍事也一竅不通，汶川大地震後他硬逼軍隊一天打通通道便露了底；但是，在涉及國家核心利益的大是大非問題上，他應該也像周恩來、陳毅那樣針鋒相對，寸步不讓。總之，美澳對他的「好評」，對他不是甚麼好事情。筆者相信，在美國咄咄逼人的亞太攻勢下，北京第四代還是想不出甚麼好辦法，惟有重新「韜光養晦」，把頭再縮回來。北京也有學者講，這是擊鼓傳「炸彈」，將問題再交給第五代。 % s/ d/ T8 K4 @3 ?4 y6 e. htvb now,tvbnow,bttvb* i, T3 e2 E- C% u' ]; D! Q
