5 \% a: n# l4 s/ Z4 Q& u澳大利亞的智囊團和大學裡有許多英語世界裡最好的中國問題觀察家。陸克文(Kevin Rudd)還是西方國家裡第一個會說漢語的總理（陸克文目前擔任澳大利亞外交部長）。澳大利亞人也遠比其他國家的人更早地領教到中國國有企業的霸道。2009年，澳大利亞礦商力拓(Rio Tinto)雇員、華裔澳大利亞公民胡士泰(Stern Hu)被中國有關部門以盜竊國家機密的罪名逮捕。后來罪名降至商業間諜罪，胡士泰承認受賄，被判處十年監禁，但人們一直懷疑，胡士泰被起訴一定程度上與中國政府和力拓因鐵礦石價格發生的爭執有關。 ( P& [2 m; c( Z4 J1 J" J公仔箱論壇 % H7 U, w- s3 K' x1 e0 k鑒於中國對其經濟的重要性，外界本來認為澳大利亞會調整它在二戰最嚴峻時期與美國結下的緊密關系，轉向中國懷抱。前任澳大利亞駐華大使芮捷銳(Geoff Raby)曾經開玩笑地說：“你們不可能比我們更接近中國，但我們可以。”5.39.217.76" K2 m( v2 }9 F$ M' w( m" c
然而，澳大利亞與美國建立防務聯盟的事實最有力地表明，過去幾年裡中國越來越生硬的外交方式讓其它亞太國家感到不安。當奧巴馬訪問澳大利亞的時候，美國國務卿希拉裡•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)正在訪問中國的另一個鄰國菲律賓。越來越不安地關注著中國一舉一動的菲律賓。正在舉行慶祝菲美簽署安全協定60周年的活動。而希拉裡同意為菲律賓提供一艘新軍艦。5.39.217.768 w# ~3 i K# P- c1 a" C
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澳大利亞和其它亞太國家的考慮是，它們可以繼續兩條腿走路——一邊自由地與蓬勃發展的中國開展貿易，另一邊繼續受益於美國提供的保護傘。這些國家希望，隨著它們更明確地展示團結，加之美國重新開始參與亞太地區事務，中國本能中較具破壞性的那一面可以得到遏制，亞洲將快速持續繁榮。 % H* R6 O3 x0 T3 C* B; U $ v6 k( B: W% v) B) `( C0 X公仔箱論壇但所有這些假設都建立在美中之間的地緣政治較量不會升級的前提之上。等待澳大利亞的可能還包括一些痛苦得多的選擇——例如，假設中美軍艦之前在南中國海發生的某一場小沖突升級的話。隨著美國在其領土上駐軍，澳大利亞可能發現自己被牽扯進了其安全保障國與主要市場之間的沖突之中。 ; G# V# L0 t' H, fTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。公仔箱論壇& M% O, K; R+ D* _# G! G4 U
澳大利亞也許會發現，自己開創了又一個地緣政治先例——它將成為被夾在當今兩大強國當中的首批國家之一。作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-11-21 07:37 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-11-21 07:41 AM 編輯 ' o" U, ]8 N& | " [; e) o" D& Z# n: T" L& f7 V5.39.217.76Working with Washington is threat to cosy ties with China5.39.217.76& C) [0 L$ T( }9 s! J& [1 G, B
By Geoff Dyer in Washington # H: ]' T# }2 I3 E" ^- M$ Rtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb / B% L P- g% y* h. ]1 d5.39.217.76 / e. U i- x9 K5 }* LIn 1942, the Japanese air force dropped more bombs over Darwin than they had used at Pearl Harbor and in the process turned Australia into a rock-solid ally of the US. On Thursday, Barack Obama visited the same northern Australian town and re-cast the alliance for a new era. . ~5 p# k. P9 A2 o. L# T+ r( m5.39.217.76The numbers of American marines to be based in Darwin may be modest but the strategic significance is not. The beefed-up security pact with Australia is a hugely important episode in the growing geopolitical contest between China and the US over the future of Asia.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。) H. g5 [; A8 I g2 p6 E6 e
For the past three decades, Australia has served as a sort of early-warning system for the rise of China. To understand the effect China is having on the world, Australia has been a good place to start. 8 N& {% |: ^+ |公仔箱論壇 9 Y! v# b3 D2 v. ] lProdded by some far-sighted diplomats, Australia was one of the first countries to wake up to the economic potential of China. In 1985, then Prime Minister Bob Hawke took Chinese leader Hu Yaobang on a personal tour of the Pilbara, a remote stretch of Western Australia with vast deposits of iron ore. In a way, it was the start of the current commodities boom. Since then,ever-larger slabs of the iron-rich red earth have been transported to China to make the steel for China’s mammoth urbanisation.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。; @7 P3 b* I/ @# i5 P& l8 | B& R$ h
" z6 T- B) J& l& X/ W7 dtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbAustralia’s think-tanks and universities have many of the best China-watchers in the English-speaking world and in Kevin Rudd, it had the first Chinese-speaking prime minister of a western country (Mr Rudd is now foreign minister).' p9 D3 Q9 {6 h$ ?
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Australians were also well ahead of the pack in being rattled by China’s state-owned industry. In2009, Stern Hu, an Australian citizen of Chinese origin who worked for Australian miner Rio Tinto, was arrested by the Chinese authorities on charges of stealing state secrets. The charges were reduced to industrial espionage and Mr Hu admitted to taking bribes, receiving a 10-year prison sentence, but the suspicion lingered that his prosecution was partly the result of a dispute between the miners and Beijing over iron ore prices.公仔箱論壇4 a, V, u: _/ r z. E, K: l% a+ b
! I C+ v1 u. W! }4 G& c1 ]Given the importance of China to its economy, Australia might have been expected to drift away from its close links with the US, which were forged in the heat of the Second World War. “You could not get much closer to China than we are,” the former Australian ambassador to Beijing Geoff Raby used to joke. “But we will.”/ O, V/ Y5 `& j: m
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Yet the fact that Canberra is doubling-up on its defense alliance with Washington is one of the most powerful indicators of the way that Beijing has unnerved the rest of the Asia-Pacific region in the past few years with its more abrasive diplomacy.While Mr Obama was in Australia, Hillary Clinton, US Secretary of State, was in the Philippines, another regional neighbour that has watched Chinese behaviour with growing apprehension and which is celebrating a 60-year security pact with the US. She agreed to provide Manila with a new warship. 3 e& ~0 K& S9 }. kThe calculation in Canberra and other capitals around the region is that they can continue to have it both ways – trading freely with a booming China while continuing to benefit from the security umbrella provided by the US. With a greater show of unity and renewed American engagement in the region, these countries hope, China’s more disruptive instincts can be curtailed and the Asian boom will continue apace. 0 N9 \" V% D5 S% j5 M9 D" ntvb now,tvbnow,bttvb+ Q3 W! a$ W0 u) P" r( ]& q {
But all that assumes the geopolitical rivalry between the US and China does not escalate. There is another potential future that could await Australia, which would involve some much more painful choices. Suppose one of the skirmishes between Chinese and US ships in the South China Sea were to escalate. With American marines and kit on its territory, Australia could find itself pulled into a conflict between its security guarantor and its main market. 3 ]# z& v! |) w5 b1 I/ ~$ d; K c" kAustralia would then find itself blazing another geopolitical trail, as one of the first countries to be squeezed between the two great powers of the age.作者: norman.ho 時間: 2011-11-21 05:38 PM
本帖最後由 norman.ho 於 2011-11-21 05:42 PM 編輯 + u* h$ y; U! w; V% wTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。! t0 g+ a: r* u
Australia, a resource rich, military strong and sovereign country, by inviting the US navy to station at Darwin, is acting like a spoilt brat craving for drug; prostituting herself, not for money, but to get high.作者: aa00 時間: 2011-11-22 12:48 PM
北京無奈澳美軍盟 8 s/ l. h! f8 ~( h4 @
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。& N" }3 k K% D) d1 |3 u# U
/ a; U6 I) C" R4 U" ]& |1 eTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。美國總統奧巴馬宣稱，美國向澳洲派駐海軍陸戰隊將增加至二千五百名。北京方面評論美國這計劃「不適當」。澳洲國防部長史密斯反唇相譏說，中國在澳美軍事同盟問題上的反應是「適度而慎重的」，西方紳士外交語言的背後是「無奈和克制的」。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb) C' f/ N6 d: ^5 J: m8 {
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本帖最後由 norman.ho 於 2011-11-22 08:14 PM 編輯 公仔箱論壇' S+ w3 {3 e' s6 d
% S! r" Z3 w4 G6 U( MI don't think the stationing of US navy at Darwin really post any threat to China as such; the US strategy is to create tension at the Asian Pacific region in order to slow down the economic and military collaboration among the Asian countries. tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb, d! ^3 O/ k' l* E
As all Asian countries are in the process of developing their industrial and commercial sectors, no country would want to go to war, even when being push. Take the example of India and Pakistan; there has been various terrorist attacks at the heart of India, yet they are still busy talking about trade and military cooperation. We all know any war between any Asian country is guaranteed to be a loose loose situation. 7 v" O( b: e! |- w* ?1 R! x6 D4 }It's only the US and a couple of the European countries that wants war or civil war in Asia; so the rise of economic status of Asia could be stifled. I am sure no country would fall for it.作者: aa00 時間: 2011-11-23 08:43 AM
