本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-11-5 09:32 AM 編輯 % M# V$ |' R ^1 ~ % f) Z- w' X0 e6 [Global recession grows closer as G20 summit fails Patrick Wintour & Larry Elliot! {$ H! J: C+ L; b6 b' N8 I, t. o/ v
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TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。) g2 L5 [. P1 U( [$ l
Saturday 5 November 2011 m+ P, E% L( z- pIMF to monitor Italy to ensure austerity as leaders fail to agree plan for financial aid for distressed countriestvb now,tvbnow,bttvb" N9 s6 w+ x$ D) p2 ?1 g
7 b2 \: f+ @% Z" x L5.39.217.76A world recession has drawn closer after a fractious G20 summit failed to agree fresh financial help for distressed countries and debt-ridden Italy was forced to agree to the International Monetary Fund monitoring its austerity programme.5.39.217.76! |; z& d/ i4 O4 T! q
" F+ M& Q& K7 @! V: [TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Financial markets fell sharply after the two days of talks in Cannes broke up in disarray, amid concerns that Italy will now replace Greece at the centre of Europe's deepening debt crisis. ( \/ k# Y/ s7 C5 f7 y4 y: Y7 @' \5.39.217.76, c; G& v8 R( [' q
UK hopes that the Germans would relent and allow the European Central Bank to become the lender of last resort for the euro were also dashed.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。- n, a: X) V, ^& ~
& x' v; y3 i% I" t2 ctvb now,tvbnow,bttvbOn a day of unremitting gloom and yet more market turbulence, the Greek prime minister, George Papandreou, won a late-night confidence vote in his parliament after making a speech in which he promised to start power sharing talks to forma caretaker coalition government. Although he won the vote by 153-145, he is now expected to step down and a national unity government is expected to takeover in the coming days. : S# k' n1 F6 p9 d! A& s5.39.217.765 N+ u) E, ~. \1 d1 _6 y
Papandreou said he would visit the country's president on Saturday to launch power-sharing talks "with the [opposition] parties … for the formation of a government of broad co-operation."tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb$ J! d( ?9 u/ P. l9 \$ l
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In a sign that the spread of the debt crisis to Italy could break up the single currency, the chancellor, George Osborne, admitted the Treasury was undertaking crisis planning for a eurozone collapse. 6 i4 \/ Q/ K8 G4 v5 a6 dtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 3 N6 M/ ~9 C) j3 [+ q+ Otvb now,tvbnow,bttvbTheG20 deadlock led David Cameron to issue one of his starkest warnings about the impact on the UK economy, saying: "Every day the eurozone crisis continues and every day it is not resolved is a day that it has a chilling effect on the rest of the world economy, including the British economy.5.39.217.76, K3 I( X m9 d& t; G9 K% s
9 o) z' w1 l- c, X A' c"I am not going to pretend all the problems in the eurozone have been fixed. They have not. The task for the eurozone is the same as going into this summit. The world can't wait for the eurozone to go through endless questions and changes about this. . X# I; v# h3 ]. _) Z5.39.217.76 7 q0 X' A4 d0 M2 ~: z3 B5 OTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。"We,like the rest of the world, need the eurozone to sort out its problems. We need more to happen in terms of detail on the European firewall."公仔箱論壇: V, N3 j# D f/ _; E9 X
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Cameron hinted at worse to come, describing this as only "a stage of the global crisis". " U' r( D" R- E7 X; ~. [" t8 y" P # a8 x1 H f. K1 t, ]/ R) O6 W1 [公仔箱論壇There had been hopes that the G20 would agree to increase IMF resources by as much as$250bn to more than $1tn, but disagreements about the wisdom of it, structure,size and contributors to the fund left world leaders forced to pass the issue on to a meeting of G20 finance ministers next February. 4 t" t8 N$ i6 v, S( _8 L' N4 i : t; {" v J+ J+ u) j) {9 F5.39.217.76The French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, had been eager to flourish a figure both to reassure the markets and to top his chairmanship of the G20. 0 o7 U; \% A5 K0 N, Z公仔箱論壇$ M8 r: O, R! I. ]
Cameron revealed the friction, saying: "The very worst thing would be to try to cook up a number without being very specific about who is contributing what. If you cannot do that, it is better to say the world stands ready to increase resources to the IMF as necessary."& |/ O. K2 i/ i) Z- O( W# F
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In the financial markets an early rise in share prices was reversed after it became clear that divisions in the G20 would prevent a deal in Cannes to boost the firepower of the European financial stability facility (EFSF) or the IMF.The yield on 10-year Italian bonds rose from 6.2% to 6.4%, the highest since the euro was founded, raising fears that the country would face problems financing its huge debts.公仔箱論壇6 f- N) _: E0 y' e* `% [! m. x
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Obama,under pressure from Congress, was deeply reluctant to contribute to an expansion of IMF funds without clearer signs that the eurozone was sorting out its problems. Admitting that he had been given a crash course in European politics, Obama urged Greek and Italian parliaments to take decisive action to control their deficits and combat what he described as some of the psychological origins of the crisis.5.39.217.76" {' E2 C% L/ T0 F1 P
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He also urged the euro area to start putting some resources into the EFSF, which Europe hopes to turn into a bailout fund with at least €1tn to deploy. + B+ h) i$ I' W; K. B3 JTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 7 d- s* L! ~6 K8 g5.39.217.76But the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, said: "There are hardly any countries here which said they were ready to go along with the EFSF."TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。3 w+ m9 X# A$ \5 Z; O$ P/ U) e4 N
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Berlusconi was summoned to a late-night hotel meeting with Merkel, Sarkozy, the IMF director general, Christine Lagarde, and Obama, where he was told that the IMF was to start monitoring to ensure tough austerity measures are implemented. The measures include changes to the labour market, pension reform and the sell-off of state-owned assets.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。. Q6 M4 } d- X" Z* U* ]
8 a% L" _0 i5 Q5 u5.39.217.76Italy has debts of €1.9tn, or 120% of GDP, and if it followed Greece down the path towards a financial bailout, or default, the impact on the European banking system would be vast. Italy faces new tests in further auctions of its debt this month – it has to raise €30.5bn in November and a further €22.5bn in December.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。/ b a5 J, ?5 _6 t' T8 s
0 z/ I7 g: i: GSarkozy denied that the demands on Berlusconi represented an IMF coup, saying: "Wenever wanted to change governments, either in Greece or in Italy. That is not our role, that is not our idea of democracy, but it's clear that there are rules in Europe and if you exonerate yourself from these rules you exclude yourself from Europe." $ e ~( M, p) E8 ], e % w# {2 N3 ^+ O; l3 W- P5.39.217.76Berlusconi,facing defections from his own party, insisted he had invited the IMF to offer advice. Berlusconi said on Friday he had rejected an offer of funds from the IMF – "I don't think Italy needs that" – and said his country was more solid than France or the UK.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。& ] d% ]1 d7 l8 n( @ L
U6 D7 \: P6 j% rBritish officials privately admit that potential economic collapse in Italy is now the single biggest concern gripping world leaders. One said: "We cannot have the Italians meeting in crisis every three days. We need some action." ) [) |, P! F' k. {/ `tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。' g9 u+ J: W6 t3 v, t
The UK government will now focus on urging its European partners to make progress,and will continue to support extra cash for the IMF. Cameron said he would not need UK parliamentary approval for this as the Commons has already agreed to an increase that would cover the proposed UK additional contribution. % j1 t# ?/ a, i: B- p2 z+ itvb now,tvbnow,bttvb7 a! Q- N# r# H4 P
The EFSF has €440bn ($608bn) available to lend, of which roughly half is expected to be consumed by bailouts of Ireland, Portugal and Greece. Italy has nearly€2tn in debt outstanding.5 V+ p6 ^0 `! c5 \) j; y/ L; C7 o
! P. ?! i3 U* M& v! RThe European Central Bank has purchased Italian debt since August, but will not carry on doing so indefinitely. The need to bolster the EFSF has led the EU to pursue countries outside the euro zone with surplus cash, such as China.作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-11-5 09:24 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-11-5 09:28 AM 編輯 ) c- ^ n% j3 M- E7 k6 u4 F* K0 pTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 : w% e7 C! K; ^4 S( n O6 ^G20 summit:slumping to the occasion Guardian Editorial 5 U# p! E! ?5 Z' w3 | Q9 i* x, m5.39.217.765 Nov 2011 公仔箱論壇) Y9 u# D9 T3 A
( o/ V5 q. u4 B+ _7 @Yes they Cannes? Sadly, in the end, no they couldn't. It is important,nevertheless, not to overstate the failure of the Cannes G20 summit. This is not apocalypse – or even Acropolis – now. Modern summits are an ongoing bargaining process, not a one-off, all-or-nothing shoot-out. But it is just as important not to understate the missed opportunities and the perilous consequences either. The fundamental fact about the Cannes G20, like the Brussels eurozone summit last week, is that the nations of the world had the chance to get a stronger grip on the European sovereign debt crisis and they let it slip. One way or another, therefore, they are doomed to have to try again. But the context may not be any easier when they do. In fact, it could be much worse. + H4 K% Z) `9 Z! X) [公仔箱論壇 2 f: ]7 S% N: n. `6 O! ^The easy excuse is to blame Greece. If George Papandreou had not thrown a spanner into the post-Brussels works by announcing a referendum on last week's rescue package, the argument runs, then Germany and France could have come to Cannes with a shiny new eurozone prospectus for China and others to buy. That argument won't wash. Mr Papandreou's timing, though not his spasm of democratic instinct, was terrible. But Greek instability is a given in this crisis,however you frame it. The bigger problem was that Europe's three-part rescue plan was virtual reality, not money on the table. It was a rights issue with a prospectus lacking hard numbers. It was not a bad plan – and it has certainly gained the eurozone some time. But it was inadequate. It contained insufficient bankable and quantifiable commitments on Greece, on Italy, on the recapitalisation of the banks and on the euro stability fund. The very fact that the EU had to come to the G20 for help was indicative of the fact that the EU was failing to pull together – and was perhaps incapable of solving its own problems. 1 F' P* [! ^# g& A" H 7 F I" T7 R! |' q, n% {, Etvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThat judgment can now be extended to the G20 too. Yesterday's Cannes communique is a compromise document, as they always are. But the Cannes conclusions rarely rise above generality. "We all commit to further structural reforms to raise output in our countries," they say. But who commits to exactly what? "We will ensure the IMF continues to have resources to play its systemic role to the benefit of its whole membership," says what is arguably the communique's single most important sentence – not least in the paranoid worm's-eye-view world of Westminster Euroscepticism. But how much resources?From whom? And where will it be spent? Even the apparently concrete Italian commitment to call in the IMF "to carry out a public verification of its policy implementation" lacks the necessary steel rods that would reinforce Italy's pledge to restructure its debt,5 e( ~& w5 P$ V, O! Y
4 g& L7 @8 d$ x2 D8 N- v公仔箱論壇It may not seem from the reporting as if the G20 was about anything other than righting Europe's banks and public finances. In fact, every G20 is and ought to be also about low global growth. Yet Cannes disappointed here too. The communique talks of an action plan for growth and jobs. But where is it? There are vague commitments to take "discretionary measures to support domestic demand, should economic conditions materially worsen." And there is an apparent Chinese commitment (which nevertheless does not mention China)"to increase domestic demand coupled with greater exchange rate flexibility". True, these are not technically inconsistent with an energetic growth pact. Yet to pretend that this is in any sense a co-ordinated or credible action plan for the nations to combine to get ahead of the markets is simply false. + l' O# _* Z1 X6 T + }1 b/ l7 y0 d; \TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Any summit is better than no summit at all. It is also important to have realistic expectations about the ability of nations with different interests, and often ruled by coalitions, to take transformative collective actions. Yet if not them, who? And if not now, when? Cannes provided few answers. All the big questions still remain on the table for next time.作者: norman.ho 時間: 2011-11-6 09:59 AM
.... and there is no free lunch. 0 C1 {/ V+ T" R+ a5 N ~2 [; e: T公仔箱論壇Should the Chinese government get involved in the rescue of the European Financial Crisis? The answer is yes, we have no choice but to help bailing them out. (whether we like it or not). ' g0 J2 ^- E l3 z# D- S" c7 ~% ytvb now,tvbnow,bttvbWe (the Chinese Government) have survived the last Global Financial Crisis coming out rather unscathed, that was mainly due to our strong fiscal policy (pegging the Chinese Yuan to $US, and we hold a huge amount of US dollars and US bond in our reserve), and the strong government spending on building the local infrastructures such as airport, freeways, railway lines, port facilities, and a very strong local demand for housing and manufactured goods and so on.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 u: u+ w$ I, {" V
However, these internal demands of our own products will and is slowing down. So what's is going to happen to our manufacturing sector when the global demand keeps on dwindling? We will have to cut down on production, reduce the workforce, lower our price even further, hence the wage and condition of the factory workers will deteriorate.公仔箱論壇 j6 h; B8 k( U0 W+ _* U9 b( M. D1 f
So, it is to our interest to help bail out the European fianacial crisis.作者: norman.ho 時間: 2011-11-6 10:22 AM
本帖最後由 norman.ho 於 2011-11-6 11:39 AM 編輯 + d. H, b- H. T0 ?
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.... and what goes around comes around.公仔箱論壇/ f, z, B# m5 Y" g9 K% b
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Just go back about 15 years, remember the East Asian Financial Crisis in 97, the slaughtering the four Asian Dragons, the drastic devaluation of the Thai, Singapore, Korean and Indonesian currencies, how the IMF dictated the fiscal policy to countries like Korea, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippine? / J- ^# A9 L: [$ {2 {) }5.39.217.76George Soros was sitting back laughing and reaping off with huge profit. The Japanese economy has since been slowed down drastically. 3 T4 I$ q6 [% [9 ^2 \: [tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbAnd that happened at the precarious time at which HK was being returned to mainland China. We survived that alright didn't we? We must be thankful to the way the Chinese Government handled the situation. And the only Asian country that toughed it out was the Malaysian government who vigorously resist the IMF interference. ( W2 k/ X9 ?9 t9 g! b. Ltvb now,tvbnow,bttvb, c& p. o1 l) N- h' W( Y
What is the IMF doing now? Nothing, absolutely impotent. And the media is now referring to the EU region as the Euro Zone, The words European Union were hardly being uttered anymore. 6 ^! f& b. _, {3 Y# hTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 & V% P# ~9 x5 a/ F/ v% {5 V$ FAnd the US? They have a bigger problem of their own than the European countries.作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-11-6 03:07 PM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-11-6 03:12 PM 編輯 j8 g0 k% g' l; JTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 $ S c% y$ C, @; JWho is the villain in this eurocrisis movie? Gulf Stream Blues " L; ]" D) c$ A8 Z9 A+ G. [- P5.39.217.76 + g, _, {8 x9 e( [, itvb now,tvbnow,bttvb公仔箱論壇$ o5 k! \$ z; o3 t: d8 y% m0 v
Cannes has seen its fair share of cinematic flops over the years. But this red carpet-laden city on France's south coast has never seen a political flop like the one it witnessed over the past two days. It had all the elements of an edge-of-your-seat political thriller: high stakes, sudden plot twists, personal rivalries and looming global disaster. But who is the villain in this particular script? Today there was plenty of finger-pointing to go around. _: k q4 w( ]+ a1 c" O/ z % ^# B, x& C$ G+ LTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。The leaders of the world's 20 richest countries intended to come to Cannes to come up with a solution to global economic crisis which is quickly spiraling out of control. But a shock announcement Tuesday from the Greek prime minister that he would hold a referendum on Greece's acceptance of the bailout package worked out last week changed all that. The resulting outcry threw the Greek government into disarray, putting it near collapse - which could have precipitated a global emergency. The leaders of the 20 richest countries in the world ended up working out nothing, spending the entire summit glued to their blackberries waiting for news from a tiny country in the Mediterranean. 0 k9 v( }. J: o! \) }3 {5.39.217.765.39.217.76% {1 i7 Q( r) l( M( t* v
The leaders left Cannes tonight with nothing to show for their meeting. No plan to save the eurozone, no funding, and no consensus. Indeed the G20 summit has ended with the world in a worse state than it was in when it started. Europe,and the world, could be just days away from economic collapse if the Greek government collapses tonight in a no-confidence vote scheduled for midnight. : c* _1 J+ G5 n v5.39.217.76( I2 P( ?/ @3 h) ^* ?; T
So who is to blame for all this? The obvious culprit, both from the beginning and this week in particular,is Greece. But though Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou's snap decision to hold a referendum may be mystifying, he and his Socialist party have done nothing to create this crisis. Since they came into power they have only been trying to fix what the previous Conservative government did. One would be hard-pressed to not feel a bit sorry for Papandreou, who came into office in2009 to get the shock of his life when he learned the previous government had been cooking the books. 5 y+ U' s" n+ t- H" j ; {2 Z7 T C* ?4 FBut Greece is fast becoming only a bit player in this drama. All eyes are now turning to Italy and its beleaguered and reviled leader Silvio Berlusconi.Yields on Italy's bonds rose to euro-area highs this week, prompting fears that the country may be just days away from collapse. Italy is the third largest economy in the Eurozone and it is too big to bail out, so a collapse of Italy's borrowing ability would likely spell the end of the euro and a global financial crash. But Berlusconi, who does not seem to be in full grasp of reality at this point, is almost literally fiddling while Rome burns.- v9 e& p7 v, D8 A
& O6 F3 ]4 ~; e3 jtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbWith his black coat wrapped around his shoulders, Berlusconi seemed the ultimate archetypal villain in Cannes. The degree to which the rest of the world's leaders don't trust him was on display today when they forced him to accept IMF monitoring to make sure he actually implements the austerity reforms he promised last week. His deep humiliation over this fact will likely only make his behavior more erratic in the coming weeks. & e8 C8 \' i7 o+ H3 _ + j9 {* e: Y7 itvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThere are a host of Southern European leaders who are easy to point fingers at in this disaster. But can the real villain be found further north, in the land of lederhosen and beer steins? Reports coming out of Cannes this week indicated that the US is getting increasingly frustrated with Germany because they see them as the real problem that is blocking a solution to the euro crisis. 7 O' f- E' ~8 a公仔箱論壇 $ M0 G1 w/ \8 [# ZTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。After all, the EU has the resources and the ability to solve the euro crisis tomorrow if they wanted. They actually have enough money to build a firewall around Italy and Spain to prevent contagion to those countries - if they had backing from the European Central Bank. The UK, US and France have all been pleading with Angela Merkel to agree to let the ECB put its economic might behind the bailout. And China has also told them this, most notably when they last week declined to participate in the €1 trillion EFSF bailout fund,pointing out that Europe has the capacity to shore it up itself with the ECB.But Germany regards such a move as antithetical to the precepts of the ECB, the successor to the very conservative Bundesbank. They say the ECB must be kept independent, acting only as a regulator of currency and interest rates.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。' Z' B( D" [6 Q" U# ^
9 d2 T3 W6 a) q9 XTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Of course the ECB isn't technically controlled by Germany, although it is based in Frankfurt. In fact the ECB as of a few weeks ago has a new leader, the Italian central banker Mario Draghi. But few are expecting him to assert himself with Merkel. There are thoughts that his Italian background might even make him 'more German than the Germans', given that he doesn't want to expose himself to allegations of perverting the traditional role of the ECB in order to save his home country.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb& W% n* W# }6 z F6 V6 g
8 |4 a6 g- r0 iBut the fact is that injecting cash in order to shore up an economy is within the remit of a normal centralbank - but not a German one. And no solution to this eurozone crisis can go ahead without Merkel's approval. Who has the authority to tell the Germans that they just have to suck it up and let the ECB get involved in the bail-outs? : Y7 ~/ z) Y. w+ O( X1 K* w# Ptvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 4 F+ U/ \$ X" x' a公仔箱論壇There is only one such power - the United States. If Barack Obama sat Merkel down and told her she must accept a bail-out role for the ECB, it might be enough pressure to make her accept. After all, he can point out, America came to the aid of Germany in 1948 with the massive injection of cash with the Marshall Plan (which Germany is still paying back). Germany owes the United States, and the world, this sacrifice. 4 e) q% \2 W/ Q- W( }" UTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 / e% T, C; p" b R$ dBut there is a problem with this idea. European leaders, as well as the European public at large, views the United States as the one who sparked off this economic crisis in the first place. Germans believe the US has lost the moral authority to tell them what to do in this situation because they were the ones who caused the 2008 economic crisis, which in turn sparked the 2010-2011European debt crisis. The euro project was still being built, they say, it needed more time to develop. But the crisis sparked in 2008 by Wall Street and loose American financial regulation exposed the eurozone to a crucial test too early in its development. Why, many German politicians are asking, should they take orders from the very people who sparked this crisis in the first place?公仔箱論壇: d% m* d2 k/ K9 c' n( T
* i0 K( d* i5 \- l" D8 yAnd that's the scary situation we find ourselves in today. There is no leader in this crisis, and seemingly no country has the moral authority or the will to step in and tell the others what to do. The developing world - who are the only ones with the cash to bail out their struggling formal colonial masters - are conversely not yet in a position to exert leadership in this crisis. And with the US and Japan struggling under their own debt problems and political stagnation, there is nobody left to be the adult in the room.$ |. s0 g% w3 n
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This movie has a lot of villains, but apparently, it has no hero.
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戛纳街头的峰会海报