. D- U( h1 q. F# [ y5 U' q, d公仔箱論壇 ! q, F/ C* E& ~美國要削減債務，得設法開源節流，但民主黨拒絕削減福利支出節流，惟恐基層苦上加苦，共和黨則不肯加稅，稱這窒礙投資和創造就業、令經濟雪上加霜。其實，兩黨可透過短期措施令美國暫時避過倒債，問題是，奧巴馬逼兩黨一次過傾掂數，確保明年大選期間不會出現瀕臨倒債的情況。+ M, L! f+ p+ A) S; y7 u
4 v! o0 W. Y, l1 [: Y5 ~) Ytvb now,tvbnow,bttvb奧巴馬罕有地發火，是因為共和黨眾院第二號人物坎托，要求採取以削減支出為基礎的權宜之策、暫時解除危機。坎托向傳媒表示，奧巴馬向他發出「不要逼我攤牌」的警告，總統也揚言準備好將其主張交給選民定斷。觀乎奧巴馬威脅行使總統否決權，部分議員已開始構思如何收拾倒債的爛攤子。有民主黨參議員認為應優先發放社會福利金，多名共和黨議員建議先向軍人支薪。 4 g3 N" g9 F8 l" B" i0 f w公仔箱論壇 / c3 s% G) s' H+ Qtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb準備與共和黨對撼tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb0 p3 j6 ]$ R+ u1 h/ r$ H
英國《每日電訊報》一篇報道，帶出一個發人深省的問題：奧巴馬為何在國債問題上發難？該報指，即使是「公共醫療保險」（public option）未被納入醫改案、關塔那摩監獄關不得、布殊時期的富人減稅優惠獲延長，也未至於令奧巴馬動怒，奧巴馬因美國瀕臨倒債失去一貫的沉着和冷靜，反映他已準備好在此一問題上與共和黨對撼。 q; {0 V5 [/ [- q
1 m+ H! z% L/ B! L: Y6 b5 f5 R7 W公仔箱論壇的確，奧巴馬為促成醫改案，不得不在「公共醫療保險」爭議上向共和黨人讓步，惹來醫改「半吊子」的批評，他在醫改案一役極其量只是慘勝。共和黨陣營受制於茶黨勢力，被迫在國債問題上與民主黨較勁，一旦玩出火，隨時重創美國經濟，誰也擔當不起，奧巴馬此際怒火中燒奉陪到底，共和黨隨時玩火自焚，一鋪「輸凸」。5.39.217.76* e& R. M8 T+ q# f
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, v ~. q7 f* U) }9 ]5.39.217.76这场国债上限之争到底是怎么回事？为什么引起这样大的关注？我们来看一看：tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb4 w' w0 H Z$ F. D. ~
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国债上限到底是什么？TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。4 {& P- C z" J" S' u" g
$ v8 F* X8 w7 {. o/ a5.39.217.76这是美国政府能够借债总数的上限。目前美国国债上限是十四万三千亿美元。一般认为，美国目前的巨额国债主要是多年来政府预算赤字累积的结果。 7 L. y& s/ `" i( y/ ~, U) N0 v 9 x, @: N) T Y, |) m) ?: Etvb now,tvbnow,bttvb美国在1980年以来已经39次提高国债上限。在里根时代共提高17次，克林顿执政时期4次，小布什时代则有7次。 0 w. b# k+ @: S% \9 ~8 O- ]TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb& A- V: L* O. \2 `3 N8 @
如果不提高国债上限会有什么后果？ 1 I* S5 `9 `7 b8 Q, U! vTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 * E! T \% n1 V5 g+ O0 [1 STVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。最直接的后果就是美国政府将无法支付大笔开支。例如，在国债上限到期的八月份，美国政府的收入为一千七百二十亿美元，但实际的开支将高达三千零七十亿美元，其中短缺的一千三百五十亿美元需要靠借债来弥补。 1 Z$ p0 A/ b" c0 x8 C3 V7 t - f; n! k& V& ]& @. Y6 S* W; ?不提高债限的后果包括： c, L/ Y& j# ^& v; {7 M# M# rtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 2 J4 [' b! H' V0 L/ itvb now,tvbnow,bttvb--美国政府无法偿还所欠债务，如向债权人支付到期的本金和利息；tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb$ p/ c# v4 y0 `( l* J* Q$ p' E
--美国政府无法支付政府和军队运作的资金；tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb% w6 n2 Q; r2 _ a% t' z
--美国政府被迫停止发放养老金、联邦医疗保险、军人津贴等补助，停止向政府雇员和合同工支付工资；& F0 K; o% A5 G @
--国债违约导致投资人或者投资国减少购买美国国债，从而引起利率上升，导致民众购房、购车和信用卡的利率也跟着上升，增加民众开支； " d" q* l3 c7 m0 X/ \tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb--政府开支紧缩和利率上升又会导致各行业减少投资，引起就业下降和股市动荡； ! t: {) R% O) p, a( L, {; T# p+ ^TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。--国债违约会导致与中国等债权国的关系紧张，损害美国国债的信誉。这个因素再加上利率上升，将使美国未来举债的成本大为增加，从而使得美国严重的债务问题更为恶化。2 x i% f+ C. u% N7 e
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万一两党不能在8月2号的截至日期前提高债限，美国政府有没有后备方案？公仔箱論壇7 g* z% d$ |& _4 n ]
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尽管财政部长盖特纳一再强调美国无法承担不提高债限的后果，分析人士认为，财政部一定有一个“优先支付顺序”，即在国债上限没有提高的情况下，优先支付哪些开支。一般认为美国将优先支付美国国债债权人和债权国的利息，其次是支付社会安全、联邦医疗保险、失业救济和支持美国战争需要的军火商。这些开支就会基本上耗尽所有收入。政府将无法支付军队和退伍军人开支、政府开支和政府工作人员的薪资。 0 L% W6 W5 h( S/ s7 B1 {- |$ U9 G ! p1 H+ d( L" g% \tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb为什么白宫及民主共和两党不能就提高国债上限达成共识？ + m( {) C, Q- R" y, _2 B- B, l公仔箱論壇 - `. E4 Y3 g$ G5.39.217.76美国选民近年来有强烈的呼声，要求联邦政府削减开支，减少国债。很多分析人士认为，共和党之所以在2010年的中期选举中大获全胜，就是因为选民厌倦了大幅度增长的预算赤字和国债。许多共和党人在竞选之际就承诺要在不提高税率的前提下大幅度削减政府开支。中期选举之后，新国会中的茶党更是形成了一股强大的政治力量，把减少国债作为首要议题，对以众议院议长贝纳为首的传统老派共和党形成挑战。 % S6 h& J% h; M8 I$ k8 w8 q# i3 K6 ]* l4 O2 x) H7 M
例如，在这次有关债限问题的谈判中，共和党众议院多数党领袖坎特就代表强硬的茶党理念，提出巨大的削减额度，而且拒绝增税。为此参议院少数党领袖里德指责他是谈判的最大障碍，“根本就不该在谈判桌上”。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb! u! s% E: r4 }( |8 {8 H
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目前两党的分歧主要在于：共和党表示，提高国债上限的前提是政府提出巨大的削减开支计划，而且削减的开支数目必须高于增加的债限额度。民主党则反对削减社会福利计划，并要求对富人增税。他们指责改变福利计划将使美国最弱势的群体--老年人和低收入者的生活雪上加霜。 & F# s0 w: D' f" U0 q5.39.217.76tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb( J. ~; @6 J4 ?" \1 M) ?8 M
被两党夹击的奥巴马总统则提出“削减开支、增加税收、改变福利”等几项齐头并进的方案。他提出的方案包括提高税收以增加政府收入，以及改革社会安全福利和联邦医疗保险这两项耗资巨大的社会福利计划。但是国会两党内部都有反对他的强烈声音，难以达成妥协。 3 j g1 G% B: p5 x公仔箱論壇 : u, C: C6 B% `8 b$ G! c公仔箱論壇 : ]) g' `# P' z+ _一个可能的方案是，政府将为社会安全福利计划采用新的通货膨胀指数。考虑中的指数称为“连锁消费者物价指数”(Chained Consumer Price Index)。这个指数一般比更普遍使用的消费者物价指数(CPI)所反映的通货膨胀要低。如果社会安全福利和这一指数挂钩，那么美国政府每年支付的福利金就会减少。另外，采用这一指数还可以减缓免税额的成长，在10年内可为政府减少大约2500亿元预算。5.39.217.760 i1 X9 H7 ?' R& w
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-7-17 04:16 AM 編輯 - {1 E! Q9 u. m& Z
5.39.217.76+ U0 S+ b7 e: K1 ]" [( L4 T Issues Holding Up Debt Ceiling Agreement The New York TimesTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。8 T, ?7 c! l Y3 V3 E, ]8 A4 ?; o
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As the deadline to raise the debt ceiling looms, many Republicans are demanding changes in benefit programs as a condition of increasing the debt limit.Congressional Democrats oppose cuts, but President Obama has pushed for a sweeping budget agreement that aims to save $4 trillion over 10 years through a combination of spending cuts and new tax revenues. * C! q) T" k* zTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。公仔箱論壇0 A8 }& @/ G ?0 g x+ s# w Medicare & p. c. d- J3 }( B4 Z# d+ ^' oTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。2 L4 e7 h! a s! N Issue Medicare spending is expected to increase to $970 billion in 2021, from $520billion in 2010. Officials have said that the program, which provides healthcare to people 65 and older, is not sustainable in its current form. ) n/ D, d M5 Z* T G公仔箱論壇TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。# P' r8 W; N" t! C) {: ~4 z What the Democrats say Mr. Obama has offered to slow the growth of Medicare spending, possibly by as much as hundreds of billions of dollars over 12 years and more than $1 trillion in the following decade, by leveraging Medicare’s buying power. But he has not provided details.Many Democrats see Medicare cuts as undermining their political case against the House Republican plan to turn it into a “voucher” program.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, U. W' V4 {4 g8 y* N/ c, @; V
! B( Z2 ]; x1 k qTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。What the Republicans say Earlier this year,Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin proposed a plan to give future beneficiaries a fixed amount of money to buy private insurance. On Tuesday, Representative Eric Cantor of Virginia presented 27 proposals that he said would save up to $353 billion over 10 years. They include charging co-payments for laboratory tests and home health care, and increasing charges to high-income beneficiaries.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。3 b. Z3 i& K5 i0 g8 {# G9 v3 O
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5.39.217.768 G; A9 w, N7 R- X3 Q+ t$ X* e Issue Federal spending on Medicaid, the nation’s low-income health program financed jointly by the federal government and the states, is expected to increase to$560 billion in 2021, from $273 billion in 2010. The Obama administration injected billions of dollars into the program as the recession deepened two years ago. ' J- J% d" U E$ s6 D+ f4 M: y9 P& p" z* j( P
0 N1 d- X$ L! O1 ]5.39.217.76What the Democrats say White House officials have indicated that they could accept savings of $100 billion or more over 10years, much to the dismay of many House Democrats. Critics say the cuts would impair access to care for the poor and shift costs to the states, which are facing a large expansion in Medicaid eligibility and enrollment, scheduled to start in 2014 under the new health care law.6 i+ R8 W. k% X% j; t
' K* R1 O7 e* K2 v5 n! ?' ^" w- `tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbWhat the Republicans say The proposal by Mr.Ryan called for transforming Medicaid to a block grant, with a lump sum of money given to each state, an idea opposed by Democrats. He said his plan would save $771 billion over the next decade. Mr. Cantor on Tuesday proposed $100billion in savings from Medicaid over 10 years, the same amount sought in a White House proposal.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb* Y- a5 j/ M+ Y2 g5 P; W& \
( g3 h$ f3 a1 j. i1 v2 U) g) EIssue Spending on Social Security, which comprises more than a fifth of the federal budget, is projected to rise to $1.3 trillion in 2021, from $701 billion in2010. In May, the Social Security Administration estimated that under current law the program’s trust fund would be exhausted by 2036. 7 R T6 ~- Y* ]2 {7 g9 I3 _/ T* v' _5 o What the Democrats say Mr. Obama has expressed interest in large savings from the use of a different measure of inflation to reduce the annual cost-of-living adjustment in Social Security benefits. But Congressional Democrats have joined with lobbyists for older Americans to oppose the changes, saying that Social Security is not the cause of the deficit.8 P [1 ]8 N% k* ~5 S$ B4 ]
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。* o" t9 @' D, b6 k+ r What the Republicans say Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma has said he supports the idea of an alternative measure of inflation,known as the chain-weighted version of the Consumer Price Index, on the ground that it is more accurate. Lobbyists for older Americans criticized this proposal, which could reduce federal spending by more than $110 billion over 10 years.( b% Z0 @+ V4 O) T) b' \; d9 J
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb% T0 r4 ~3 K4 p7 c1 L Tax revenues - `& k7 E/ V+ L3 w9 u! {5.39.217.76 5 F7 \. J+ a2 p' i5 S8 x/ Y5.39.217.76Issue In 2001 and 2003, Congress passed tax cuts proposed by President George W. Bush,which were set to expire at the end of 2010. President Obama reached a deal with Republicans to extend the cuts at all income levels for two years. Whether to let the cuts expire for any income group and how to close corporate loopholes have been points of contention in the negotiations. 8 s$ W) L& C7 |, W" y) |7 l 5 W1 y$ R! C% `0 HTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。What the Democrats say Mr. Obama has called for allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire for top earners, but noted that the change would not take effect before 2013. The White House has also proposed closing loopholes or other tax breaks for owners of corporate jets, oil and gas companies and hedge funds, changes that could raise about $130 billion.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。9 J7 }& u, ?7 y( F
3 U2 L* j* L+ B1 M+ D- DTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。; d2 l& F# t% e. J+ |7 ^ What the Republicans say Speaker John A. Boehner of Ohio had indicated willingness to consider $1 trillion in new revenue, with most of the money to be generated through an overhaul of the tax code. But he backed away from that plan when it drew criticism as a potential tax increase and he has declared any tax increases off the table.作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-7-17 04:17 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-7-17 04:19 AM 編輯 " g' d/ T+ B# B公仔箱論壇 * }9 u! N3 v* d# Q8 g公仔箱論壇House Republicans Plan Vote on Deficit公仔箱論壇3 _3 r2 R$ \* G9 I* v* |1 M7 @" m ` 公仔箱論壇4 w: O( L: k' i/ ]3 J* M
By CARL HULSE and ROBERT PEAR July 15, 2011 5 z) E: A8 O; l- |, mtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5.39.217.760 \2 A! c/ p+ m+ M5 j
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4 u& I {: c) J2 a' [tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbWith budget negotiations with the White House stalled, Speaker John A. Boehner of Ohio said Friday that the House would vote next week on a three-part plan to cut the deficit, cap federal spending as a share of the economy and amend the Constitution to require a balanced budget. 0 m* U1 y; g% {- ^3 Q公仔箱論壇 , f( V, x* w/ B& @, v6 g% t7 _The plan, which has a companion in the Senate, would represent the House position in the final stages of the debate as the federal government nears the limit of its borrowing power. While it would not appear to have a chance of passing the Democrat-controlled Senate, and President Obama is opposed, it could provide a legislative avenue to increasing the debt limit as it makes it way through Congress.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb* ?6 n! J8 \5 w! }. S
- c# M' z1 _# ~+ R4 dThe House Republican leader, Representative Eric Cantor of Virginia, said the House would move on its own because the president’s deficit-reduction proposals fell far short of what was needed. ( v) A) a% g/ X5 u5 m; G3 @, S1 P: {tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb- o0 ]+ p: B8 A5 A% t. w
In the budget blueprint passed by the House this year, Mr. Cantor said, “We sought$6.2 trillion in cuts over 10 years.’’ By contrast, he said, in debt negotiations at the White House this week, “the president and Democrats have offered perhaps $1.5 trillion of savings.’’ / b/ A& h( b& y* gTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。/ O7 S5 N7 |% f& B: ]
Mr.Cantor pushed back against Democratic complaints that the Republicans had not offered any concessions, but he said the Republicans would not permit federal spending to continue on its current trajectory. \) Q5 _% [0 y! [2 O# t " F) t$ \+ T0 W9 \+ h: | iTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。“We are not going to allow this kind of spending to continue,’’ Mr. Cantor said.“We don’t have the money.’’ , j6 N& n: _: m" D' r2 C ' A& r" y% u I ^* g- _0 s5.39.217.76Mr.Boehner left the door open to the compromise plan floated by the Senate Republican leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who has described his proposal as a last-ditch option. It would call for Congress to vote on whether or not to disapprove a debt limit increase, an approach that could avoid a government default by allowing Republicans to register their disapproval of the increase but still allowing it to pass. ; c1 H' }! s; R- mtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb, J& @# Z( y; R: G `4 g/ H
“We are far from the time for a last-ditch effort,’’ Mr. Boehner said, signaling that Congress still had many days and perhaps weeks of work to do on the debt.
