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標題: 世界媒體看中國：江澤民“被失蹤”後之 - 謠言·學術·文學·政治 [打印本頁]

作者: aa00 時間: 2011-7-7 12:12 PM 標題: 世界媒體看中國：江澤民“被失蹤”後之 - 謠言·學術·文學·政治

本帖最後由 aa00 於 2011-7-9 10:28 AM 編輯
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2011年 7月 06日TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。) e& b& D, j0 K& V

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世界媒體看中國：江澤民“被失蹤”

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記者: 齊之豐 | 華盛頓

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在當今中國，“被失蹤”已經變成了一個常用詞。人權活動家、人權律師、異議人士常常遭遇“被失蹤”的命運。所謂的“被失蹤”就是被當局秘密抓捕，人間蒸發，家屬得不到被抓捕的人的任何資訊。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, e9 w# \. t9 Z; E7 ^

如今，中國執政黨退休的首腦、前國家主席江澤民也遇到了一種“被失蹤”的麻煩。過去兩天來，江澤民遭遇“被失蹤”成為國際媒體津津樂道的話題。
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AP中國執政黨退休的首腦、前國家主席江澤民

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事情的來龍是，江澤民在中共創立90年最重要的紀念活動中沒有露面，中國民間於是開始猜測。中國網際網路上於是開始流傳江澤民已經死去的傳聞。
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對網際網路上出現的它所不願意看到的資訊，中國當局處理手法是始終一貫的，這就是不加解釋地刪除。但是，因為是牽涉江澤民這個不同尋常的人物，事情就變得格外有趣起來。5.39.217.76: q& Y6 l$ ?2 S. `0 q4 Y4 v
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美國《時代》雜誌7月6日網路版發表記者漢娜.比奇的報導，題目是“中國前領導人江澤民死了嗎？中國的網際網路資訊審查機構不讓人猜測。” 報導説：“他到底是死沒死呀？在7月5日夜間大約11點，中國的網際網路開始流傳前國家主席江澤民已死的傳聞。到了午夜時分，這成為中國的網際網路非常熱門的搜索話題。但是，在半個小時之內，中國網際網路資訊審查機構使出了重手。人們用中文搜索跟死有關的話題，即使是不搭配江澤民的名字，也會得到奧威爾（所描寫的資訊全面控制的集權專制國家）式的資訊：‘根據相關的政策和法律，搜索結果未予顯示。’”TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。2 B! H0 v9 z4 |) K

寫到這裡，世界媒體的記者明顯地活躍、振奮起來，報導語言也格外繪聲繪色起來了。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。" P* h6 Q, B8 |0 a* Y
美國《大西洋月刊》雜誌資深外交事務記者詹姆斯.法洛斯美國東部時間上午10點發出報導，題目是“江澤民死了嗎？中國在實時演示新聞封鎖控制。” 報導説：“在過去的24個多小時裏，任何一個追蹤社交媒體有關中國消息的人都看到了有關前國家主席江澤民可能已死的謠傳，然後是官方的否認，然後是沉默......
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“眼下令人興奮激動的事情是，網民們對江澤民情況進行著當局所不許可的討論，他們以極快的速度往來討論，而官方的聲明卻遲緩笨拙，曖昧不明。”9 _: r* v# N. `4 R) G9 p( z* m
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中國的網路資訊審查封鎖，在中國幾億網民那裏是家常便飯，是他們每日每時都必須面對的現實生活。但江澤民去世謠傳的傳播，以及中國當局隨後的網路刪貼，大大方便了外界記者的工作，使他們原本可能是沉重乏味的報導一下子增添了豐富的戲劇性。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb# M/ v" N. z7 x4 Q3 {7 b
《華爾街日報》的"中國實時報"記者Josh Chin在7月6日中國時間晚上發出報導，題目是“江澤民死亡的謠傳出現，中國的江河失蹤。” 報導説：“今年夏天，中國出現大洪水。最長的河流長江洪水尤甚，導致幾十人死亡，毀壞了成千上萬畝的農田。但對中國一個最有人氣的社交媒體網站的用戶來説，長江已經消失了。
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“星期三，在新浪網的微網志那裏搜索‘長江’，人們得不到搜索結果。搜索其他的江，會得到該網站標準的資訊封鎖通知：‘根據相關法律法規和政策，搜索結果未予顯示。’”
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新浪網頁截圖在新浪微網志搜索“江”的結果

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“江河為什麼突然遭白眼了呢？最可能的解釋是，自星期二以來，網路間流傳大量的謠傳，説是前國家主席江澤民病重，或者已經死去。江澤民姓‘江，’（由此連帶江河遭殃）。”- g+ K1 X5 S' k* }2 _5 T

加拿大多倫多《環球郵報》7月6日發表駐北京記者馬克·麥金農的報導，題目是“不管是死是活，中國禁止發表有關江澤民的議論。”報導説，“中國的網際網路用戶已經習慣於自己的言詞被禁止發表。那些有政治興趣的人早就見慣不怪‘西藏獨立’或‘天安門廣場屠殺’之類的字眼上網就消失。”

“但是，一個很尋常的字眼星期三加入了敏感詞的單子。這個詞是‘江。’”2 L3 o/ _, Q. a1 i

“突然之間，凡是帶有‘長江’字眼的有關長江一帶洪水的帖子得到跟提及諾貝爾和平獎獲得者劉曉波的帖子一樣的對待。這樣的帖子上網就消失。其他提到別的江的帖子也是一樣。在微網志搜索那些江，會得到司空見慣的回應：‘根據相關政策和法律，搜索結果未予顯示。’”
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“其他消失的字眼是‘心臟病突發’和‘總書記，’以及‘301醫院。’有人説，江澤民已經在那所設在北京的中國人民解放軍醫院去世。”
美國之音在中國時間7月6日半夜時分獲得的最新消息是，新浪微網志搜索功能以及轉發功能出現罕見的失靈，不能進行任何搜索或資訊轉發。新浪微網志發出公告説：“由於系統維護，微群內的轉發功能和搜索功能暫時關閉，對給您帶來的不便深表抱歉。”
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外界以及中國網民現在不清楚這是新浪正常系統維護的一部分，還是中國當局封鎖資訊行動的一部分。
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官方資訊的稀缺和不透明，也使先前的舊消息獲得了新的意義。日本主要報紙《每日新聞》在日本時間7月7日淩晨0點，也就是北京時間6日夜間11點發出駐北京記者工藤哲的報導説：“在中共創立90年慶祝大會之後，江澤民病重的説法通過微網志、推特等開始悄悄流傳開來。在7月5日中國外交部舉行的例行記者會上，有人提出了相關問題。新聞司副司長洪磊聽到這樣的問題，顯得有些吃驚，並予以否定，説‘我沒有聽到這種消息。’新華通訊社等國營媒體從6日到現在也沒有有關江澤民健康狀況的資訊報導。”
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江澤民在中共成立90年紀念活動中沒有露面，成為他病重或死去的謠傳的來龍。現在，中國的網民和國際媒體在繼續追蹤其去脈。

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TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。4 I9 Y& o* e& c: c  h! O

來源 / 版權所有：  以上所述媒体 / 美國之音( L$ R1 |& c! x5 Y
(以上内容摘自或摘译自其它媒体 / 美國之音，不代表發帖者观点)
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TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。3 ]  @3 A2 m( V4 ~0 ^. T8 l) [

註：上文引述相關媒體，摘文轉貼樓下

作者: aa00 時間: 2011-7-7 12:15 PM

本帖最後由 aa00 於 2011-7-7 12:19 PM 編輯 tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb+ C5 t$ I1 q: r) P8 [5 z
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Is China's Ex-Leader Jiang Zemin Dead? 公仔箱論壇3 k+ \- y$ i5 @7 C- v5 b; R3 R
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Local Censors Don't Want Any Speculation tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb- {. J" M! l4 K7 F
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Posted by Hannah Beech Wednesday, July 6, 2011 at 12:29 am

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Frederic J. Brown / AFP / Getty Images

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Is he or isn't he? Around 11 pm on July 5, China's blogosphere began trading in rumors that Jiang Zemin, the former leader of the People's Republic, had died. By midnight local searches on this topic had become very popular. But within half an hour, the heavy hand of China's censors descended. Chinese language searches for words relating to death, even without being paired with Jiang's name, returned the Orwellian message: “According to relevant policies and laws, the search results are not shown below.”

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So is Jiang dead? Gossip about the 84-year-old's ill health has circulated for some time, and the fact that he didn't show up for the mega-celebrations of the Chinese Communist Party's 90th anniversary on July 1st further fueled speculation. (In 2009, Jiang joined the festivities marking the 60th anniversary of the People's Republic.)

With his owlish glasses and penchant for droll attire abroad—a tricorn hat at Williamsburg was just one of his fashion blunders—Jiang was easy to dismiss as a clownish imitation of his powerful forebears, Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. He underwhelmed with his abstruse Three Represents ideology, which even after a nationwide propaganda campaign still left many Chinese confused as to what it actually meant. But during the 1990s, Jiang managed to hold together the Party and brooked no dissent, whether from religious groups like Falun Gong or liberals within China's leadership ranks. He oversaw the further modernization of China at a time when some naysayers were predicting the country's economic collapse. And he boasted an impressive memory that encompassed an ability to recite the Gettysburg Address and speak basic Romanian.

Perhaps most significantly in an autocratic nation, Jiang knew when to let go. At the end of his terms as President, Communist Party General Secretary and Central Military Commission chief, Jiang handed over the reins to Hu Jintao, avoiding the public tussles that had plagued previous leadership transitions in China. Even as his possible passing creates an Internet furor, Jiang will still be remembered as a man who knew how to make a graceful exit.

PHOTOS: China celebrates 90 years of communism* L+ w+ Q7 p) \
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來源 / 版權所有：  美國《時代》             5.39.217.766 i: c, {" F; E  n2 K$ N8 N
(以上内容摘自或摘译自  美國《時代》，不代表發帖者观点)

作者: aa00 時間: 2011-7-7 12:31 PM

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Is Jiang Zemin Dead? Real-time Illustration of News Control in China/ K0 O) r' P4 T6 R: Z" `" _" r8 _
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By James Fallows & T" |- j' {9 t0 `! M* s7 `7 S

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Jul 6 2011, 9:57 AM ET
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For the past 24+ hours, anyone following various social-media feeds* about China has seen rumors, then official denials, then silence, about the possible demise of former president Jiang Zemin, shown in his prime at right. Jiang would turn 85 next month.
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For another time, an assessment of what Jiang has meant, the differences between him and the current regime (and the regime about to take control), his family's role in China, and all of that. The fascinating part at the moment is the gap between the speed and back-and-forth of the unauthorized discussion of his condition, and the ponderousness and opaque nature of official statements. An item two hours ago in the WSJ's China Realtime Report illustrates the extreme heavy-handedness of the news control. For instance: Jiang's name in Chinese is 江泽民, with the first character, 江, being his family name. That character, jiang, 公仔箱論壇8 }1 m% X; X$ h
literally means "river" -- and in the past few hours, any search for info about China's big rivers on Sina Weibo (China's Twitter counterpart, the real Twitter being blocked in China) comes up empty. As Josh Chin of the WSJ says:5 r n4 T9 ]1 @4 a* h3 l1 Z ]3 v
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>>In addition to "river," the company has also blocked searches for "death" in various iterations as well as "301 Hospital," a reference to the People's Liberation Army General Hospital in Beijing where top leaders are often treated.
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Beyond blocking searches, the service's human censors have also been busy hand- deleting posts that mention the former leader.
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Chinese microbloggers have employed a variety of tricks in an apparent attempt to get around the blocks. With Weibo censors blocking searches the word for "hung" (挂了), a common Chinese euphemism for death, users have been circulating an image showing an empty set of clothing hanging out to dry, pants hiked up to chest level the way Mr. Jiang preferred.<<
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I wish Jiang and his family well. He has been out of power for nearly a decade. The government's difficulty in handling even the most basic info about his health is one more illustration of the unevenness of its emergence as a full-fledged world power. It will be interesting to see what the government finally says about him, when it does.公仔箱論壇" B( e) q6 p/ c% e# K9 M! h2 R
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*Another real-time report: I have found the stream of info from people in my "China" circle, on the week-old Google+, to be a very useful source of updates here. More on that later too.

UPDATE: This email from Michael Standaert in southern China:' i5 t- u# L9 o: a9 {* \0 @% ~+ K
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>>More from the rumor mill, via an odd route: Just heard from a young acquaintance here in Shenzhen over QQ that Internet game operators he knows have been given notice not to allow any Internet gaming tomorrow, so he was speculating that an official announcement about Jiang Zemin will come tomorrow.<<
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The main point, again, is the government's incredible awkwardness in handling health news about an 84-year-old man who has been out of power for a decade.公仔箱論壇) N, f+ L) ^) h3 Y
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Update-update. Courtesy of Adam Minter, this headline just now from the (anti-government) Epoch Times:
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來源 / 版權所有：  美國《大西洋月刊》/ 以上所述媒体
(以上内容摘自或摘译自  美國《大西洋月刊》/ 以上所述媒体，不代表發帖者观点)

作者: aa00 時間: 2011-7-7 12:38 PM

《華爾街日報》5.39.217.76. ^/ g `0 A* V

July 6, 2011, 7:50 PM HKT
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Following Jiang Death Rumors, China’s Rivers Go Missing

Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesMao Zedong once swam in the mighty Yangtze, but former Chinese president Jiang Zemin has made it disappear.
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ReutersChinese President Hu Jintao (R), former President Jiang Zemin (C) and National People’s Congress Chairman Wu Bangguo attend a banquet marking the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing September 30, 2009.

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More In Jiang Zemin

A Notable No-Show at Communist Party's 90th Birthday
Jiang Zemin Slept Here

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Google+A screenshot from Google+ shows an image of an empty suit of clothes posted online, apparently in reaction to rumors that former Chinese president Jiang Zemin has died.

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China’s longest river, the Yangtze, has been at the heart of historic floods this summer that have killed dozens of people and laid waste to hundreds of thousands of acres of farmland. But to users of one of China’s most popular social media sites, it no longer exists.

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Searches for the Yangtze’s Chinese name – Chang Jiang (长江)—on Sina.com’s Weibo microblogging platform came up empty on Wednesday, as did searches for a number of other Chinese rivers, yielding instead the service’s standard censorship notice: “According to the relevant laws, regulations and policies, the results of this search cannot be displayed.”

Why the sudden aversion to flowing bodies of water? The likeliest explanation is a torrent of rumors circulating online since Tuesday that former president Jiang Zemin is either gravely ill or has already died. Mr. Jiang’s surname means “river.”
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The Chinese rumor mill has wrongly predicted Mr. Jiang’s death before. But the latest round of speculation comes just days after the 84-year-old former leader conspicuously failed to show up at celebrations marking the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party. He would be the longest-serving and in many ways most significant Chinese leader to have died since Deng Xiaoping in February 1997.

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Regardless of whether the rumors are true, Sina is taking no chances. tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb( w. `. \: D& h8 S) j* p% D
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In addition to “river,” the company has also blocked searches for “death” in various iterations as well as “301 Hospital,” a reference to the People’s Liberation Army General Hospital in Beijing where top leaders are often treated.

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Beyond blocking searches, the service’s human censors have also been busy hand-deleting posts that mention the former leader.
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Chinese microbloggers have employed a variety of tricks in an apparent attempt to get around the blocks. With Weibo censors blocking searches the word for “hung” (挂了), a common Chinese euphemism for death, users have been circulating an image showing an empty set of clothing hanging out to dry, pants hiked up to chest level the way Mr. Jiang preferred. 公仔箱論壇* m9 O7 \' X  e& v9 v
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It’s not the first time China’s censors have gone to great lengths to prevent Internet users searching out information on the country’s top leaders. At various times, Chinese language searches for “carrot” on Google have been blocked, apparently because one of the three characters in the word matches the surname of current Chinese president Hu Jintao. tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5 d# {; F" X+ u2 S! }
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There are some inconsistencies in Sina’s apparent effort to quash the speculation surrounding Mr. Jiang. While “myocardial infarction” is blocked, “heart attack” mysteriously is not. Searches for “301 Hospital” that use Chinese characters for the numbers instead of Arabic numerals likewise produce results. ! U1 m8 S  B, U( D; T( p
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As always, it remains unclear whether the censorship effort has managed to calm speculation about Mr. Jiang’s death or encouraged it further. Jiang-related rumors and commentary remained rife Wednesday night on Twitter, which is blocked in China but can be accessed by means of firewall circumvention software. And while Sina’s content police have gotten wise to the image of the empty suit of clothing, it remains available on Google+.
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– Josh Chin. Follow him on Twitter @joshchin; X, q+ t8 I! m8 `& C$ M

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作者: aa00 時間: 2011-7-7 12:45 PM

加拿大多倫多《環球郵報》
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Dead or alive, former Chinese leader Zemin subject of censorship in China
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BEIJING— Globe and Mail Update Published Wednesday, Jul. 06, 2011 11:50AM EDTLast updated Wednesday, Jul. 06, 2011 3:51PM EDT ! I, G( K6 b- D

Internet users in China are used to having their words censored. Those with a taste for politics have long ago gotten used to having posts with words like “Tibetan independence” or “Tiananmen Square massacre” go missing almost as soon as they appear online.

But Wednesday, an altogether more mundane term joined the list of sensitive words: “river.”

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Suddenly, posts referring to the recent flooding along the Yangtze River that used the river’s Chinese name (“Chang Jiang”) were given the same treatment as mentions of Nobel Peace Prize winner Liu Xiaobo – the posts disappeared. Same for references to other rivers. Searches for any of them on Weibo – China’s popular Twitter-style microblogging service – drew the all-too-familiar response: “According to relevant policies and laws, the search results are not shown below.”

The likely reason? The Chinese character for “river” is also the family name of former Chinese leader Jiang Zemin.

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Rumours started swirling Tuesday that the 84-year-old Mr. Jiang had passed away, and gained momentum Wednesday when a Hong Kong television station “confirmed” that Mr. Jiang had died from illness. Though no such news was reported in any of China’s official media, the country’s army of censors swiftly moved to eliminate any terms that Weibo users might use to search for, or comment on, the rumours.

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Other terms that went missing were “heart attack” and “general-secretary,” as well as “301 Hospital,” the People’s Liberation Army General Hospital in Beijing where Mr. Jiang was said by some to have passed away. (Funerals for former Chinese leaders have a habit of turning into protests against their successors – the Tiananmen protests grew out of mourning for the deceased reformer Hu Yaobang.)

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In addition to blocking searches, the censors were apparently hard at work deleting hundreds of individual postings that referred to Mr. Jiang’s rumoured passing. According to one posting on Weibo, which was seen by the Agence France-Presse news agency but later deleted, the national propaganda office also issued an edict banning news organizations from reporting on the health of Mr. Jiang.

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“About the news that Jiang Zemin has passed away, news organizations can’t do reports on their own, all news reports should be in accordance with news releases from Xinhua (state news agency),” the posting said, according to AFP.

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The rumours about the former leader’s death began immediately after he was mysteriously and very noticeably absent from a July 1 celebration marking the 90th anniversary of the founding of the ruling Communist Party. All other past and present senior party figures were in attendance.

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Mr. Jiang was last seen in public during the October 2009 celebrations to mark the 60 years of Communist rule in China. He stood alongside his successor, Hu Jintao, as they reviewed a parade of troops, tanks and missiles that rolled through central Beijing.

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The owlish Mr. Jiang shot from his post as Shanghai party boss to become general-secretary of the Communist Party in June 1989 – in the immediate aftermath of the bloody crackdown on pro-democracy protests on Tiananmen Square – after his predecessor, Zhao Ziyang was dismissed from the general-secretary’s post for being too sympathetic to the student demonstrators. Paramount leader Deng Xiaoping is said to have been impressed by how Mr. Jiang had handled similar demonstrations in Shanghai, and brought his new protégé to the national stage.

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At first seen as an interim figure, Mr. Jiang lasted 13 years in the top post, and has continued to wield wide influence even after his retirement in 2002 via his allies in the Politburo.

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While his theory of “The Three Represents” – his attempt to create an ideological legacy akin to Mao Zedong Thought and Deng Xiaoping Theory – has been widely scorned as meaningless (other than, perhaps, making room for capitalists in the party rank-and-file), Mr. Jiang’s main contribution was perhaps the smooth transition he orchestrated to Mr. Hu. It was the first peaceful transfer of power in modern Chinese history, and set the precedent that Mr. Hu is expected to follow when he is due to retire next year.

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Mr. Jiang set the country on a growth-at-all costs model during the 1990s, a period which saw unbridled economic development come hand-in-hand with widespread environmental destruction and growing social inequality. He also tolerated no dissent, famously launching a harsh crackdown on the Falun Gong movement – which saw thousands of practitioners arrested and sent to reeducation-through-labour camps around the country – after determining they were a threat to Communist Party rule.

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For those waiting for Xinhua to say whether Mr. Jiang is dead or alive, there was little to chew on: hours after the rumours began to circulate, the top story on Xinhua’s English-language remained a photo gallery of Hollywood’s highest-paid actresses.

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Unlike the Yangtze River, Angelina Jolie and Sarah Jessica Parker remain approved topics of discussion in China.

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作者: aa00 時間: 2011-7-7 12:48 PM

日本主要報紙《每日新聞》5.39.217.769 b4 D9 d: M- Q; g8 ~9 i2 W! p8 I
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中国：江沢民前国家主席に重病説　共産党大会出席せず# ]! G7 X0 a! E6 m( L, Q Q% a9 `' E

2011年7月6日 20時2分　更新：7月7日 0時50分TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。0 H3 K; E* X: s

江沢民・前中国国家主席
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【北京・工藤哲】北京で今月１日に開かれた中国共産党創建９０周年の祝賀大会に出席しなかった江沢民（こうたくみん）前中国国家主席（８４）について、重病説が持ち上がっている。北京の外交関係者は「健康なら大会に姿を見せるはずだ。よほどの事情があったのではないか」と指摘し、情報収集を急いでいる。
　江氏の重病説は祝賀大会後、ミニブログ「ツイッター」などでささやかれ始めた。中国外務省の５日の定例会見でも関連の質問が出たが、洪磊（こうらい）副報道局長は驚いた様子で「そうした情報は聞いていない」と否定した。新華社通信など国営メディアも６日現在、江氏の健康状態に関する情報は伝えていない。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。; ]( b6 Q0 e) K, x8 ]1 x
　重病説をめぐり、米国に本拠を置く中国語ニュースサイト「多維新聞網」は同日の段階で「家族や高官に異変はない」と報じる一方、香港のテレビ局ＡＴＶや韓国ＫＢＳテレビが６日午後、「死亡した」と伝えた。ただ、いずれも詳細には触れておらず、ＡＴＶは「公的には確認されていない」と指摘、情報は錯綜（さくそう）している。5.39.217.762 O1 ~5 u" d7 I. C5 [
　一方、江氏が入院したとの情報がある北京市内の人民解放軍系病院では６日、警備関係者の姿が目立ち、張り詰めた雰囲気に包まれていた。

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作者: aa00 時間: 2011-7-7 12:52 PM

江泽民健康何以惹人关注？ ) D1 M3 j7 f; A! }$ b$ o

2011-7-6
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Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: 江泽民2007年10月15日出席中共17大

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最近两日，有关中国前领导人江泽民健康状况的消息引起了海外华文媒体的关注，甚至就连韩国、日本等一些国际媒体也纷纷猜测。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb) H' Y" E+ |! f; o& {' I( `
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虽然真相至今不得而知，但一个离任已近十年的前领导人的健康状况至今还如此为人关心，而中国官方至今也不公布任何消息，至少从某一个角度折射了中国政治的不稳定性和不正常性。
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几天前中共庆祝建党九十周年时，许多前领导人都出席了纪念活动，唯独江泽民缺席。最近几天一些博客和海外网站一度传言他在北京的301医院已病危甚至逝世。今年五月有媒体报道，江泽民在4月份曾大病一场，但已痊愈，正在调养中。但据总部设在美国的多维新闻社引用接近高层人士的消息称，江泽民的健康基本比较稳定。
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在中国政治历史上，领导人的健康状况一直是人们观察中国政治的重要指标。近到十几年前的邓小平，远到三十多年前的毛泽东，其健康状况始终是海外媒体津津乐道的对象。其实，这本身并非中国的专利，几乎所有的共产党体制的国家都有过这样的经验，前苏联也是如此。因此，记得以前曾有西方学者据此写过一本书，在前言中这样写道（大意）：如果一个飞机的飞行员起飞时身体患有严重疾病，那么客机上乘客大抵都不会同意他担任此次飞行的任务；推而广之，对一个国家的领导人，也是如此。但是，由于共产党国家的人民没有了解自己领导人健康状况的权利，因此就会引发更多猜测。
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无论是前苏联还是中国的毛泽东、邓小平，在当时都是对中国政治和命运握有重要影响力的人物；在政治和媒体均不透明的情况下，海外媒体对此报道得津津乐道，恰好折射了中国人民命运的无奈。但今天海外媒体津津乐道报道的江泽民，却是 - 如前所述 - 一个离任已近十年的前领导人。无论是海外媒体报道得津津乐道，还是中国官方对此的讳莫如深，似乎都在间接印证一个道理：江泽民虽然离任将近十年，但对中国政治仍继续拥有影响力；不然人们就无法解释中国官方对此的讳莫如深。公仔箱論壇& W% G" O7 |7 G2 g- ]" m

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江泽民还有多少影响力？tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb3 g7 Y) B8 _. i& V3 J

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江泽民对今天和未来的中国到底还有多少影响力？这确实是一个值得观察和研究的问题。九年前江泽民卸任时，其继任胡锦涛曾被人称为中国的"儿皇帝"，因为在当时的中共中央政治局九个常委中，绝大部分是江泽民的亲信和人马。5.39.217.76$ N$ r  e2 V2 @  B, y2 i
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但九年过去了，胡锦涛的第二任期也已接近尾声，江泽民对胡锦涛的影响力在相当程度上已有所下降。胡锦涛零五年开始连续调整对台和对日政策，近年又提出"科学发展观"，都从一个侧面折射出胡锦涛在内政外交问题上不但体现出与江泽民不同的思路，而且有付诸实施的资源和能量。5.39.217.765 Q. a& ~1 C. H
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不过，在人事问题上，江泽民似乎依然拥有相当的话事权。最典型的就是在习近平和李克强两人的职务安排问题上。众所周知，按照胡锦涛的想法，李克强应该成为总书记的接班人，而且几年来一路都在往这个方向培养李克强。但前几年，正当所有人都认为李克强是胡锦涛既定接班人的时候，习近平犹如"半路杀出的程咬金"，忽然成为总书记的接班人选。据海外媒体报道，其间江泽民运筹帷幄的作用不可低估。
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转眼间，距离决定中国最高领导层移交的中共十八大还有一年多，正是各派力量角逐的关键时刻。在这个时刻，在人事问题上依然拥有话事权的江泽民的健康状况，自然是各方关心的焦点，而中国官方的讳莫如深也正由于此。

中国权力过渡的微妙变化

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但客观地看，今天人们对江泽民健康的关注，与十几年前对邓小平健康，乃至三十多年前对毛泽东健康的关注，已完全不可同日而语。当年对毛泽东和邓小平健康的关心，让人产生似乎毛泽东或邓小平一走，天就要塌陷的感觉；但今天在江泽民问题上却完全不存在这个问题。这从某种程度上，也折射了中国政治近些年发生的微妙转型和变化。公仔箱論壇# H! d/ l. f; }/ H/ J; p
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中共历史上的权力移交，无不伴随着高层激烈的路线斗争。最近二十多年来有三个变化值得关注：一是由邓小平开启的废除领导干部终身制，虽然邓小平本人自己最后也并没有完全做到这一点；二是在江泽民时代开启的权力平稳过渡；三是最高层任期基本确定为两任，而且进入政治局常委的年龄不能超过六十八岁。
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上述三点里，值得注意的是第二和第三点。从江泽民过渡到胡锦涛，是中共历史上第一次最高权力平稳过渡，而其前奏则是1997年江泽民与乔石的权力斗争，以乔石自动退出，江乔两人之间达成某种协议或交易收场。虽然这样的权力过渡与现代民主模式相差甚远，但对中共而言，却已是令人关注的变化了。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb, i: v6 f' T  `$ N6 M6 p9 z

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如果将这一切称为中共的转型的一部分，那么对江泽民健康的关注，可能是这一转型的另一个侧面。只不过这个侧面"横看成岭侧成峰"，积极面和消极面互相参半而已。

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作者：李崇光（香港的中国问题评论员）
责编：乐然

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來源 / 版權所有：  德国之声
(以上内容摘自或摘译自德国之声，不代表發帖者观点)

作者: akh333 時間: 2011-7-8 01:31 AM

提示: 作者被禁止或刪除內容自動屏蔽

作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-7-8 06:12 AM

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-7-8 06:26 AM 編輯
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China Appears to Censor Any Online Discussion of an Ex-Leader’s Health
Andrew Jacobs New York Times 7 Jul 2011
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What do Jiangsu Province, the minor pop idol Jiang Yirong and Huadong Hospital in Shanghai have in common? Over the past day, these and scores of other words and expressions have been blocked on much of the Chinese Internet, a result of the government’s unrelenting attempt to quash widespread rumors that the former Chinese leader Jiang Zemin is dead or dying.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。% y8 [( S: z; H9 Q
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Not surprisingly, the stepped-up effort to silence speculation about the well being of Mr. Jiang, 84, who officially retired as party chief in 2002 and as president in 2003, has generated even more rumors since last Friday after he failed to attend the 90th anniversary gala commemorating the birth of the Chinese Communist Party.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。* p# Y5 Z: b' d) \5 Z& ^( C' r' t
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On Thursday morning, the official Xinhua News Agency issued an English-language response to the reports that Mr. Jiang had died, saying they were “pure rumor” and quoting what it said were“authoritative sources.” Later in the day, during a regularly scheduled news conference, a Foreign Ministry spokesman declined to answer any questions about Mr. Jiang’s health, referring journalists to the Xinhua statement. That exchange, however, was curiously omitted from a transcript of the news conference posted on the ministry’s website.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。) {3 w  n& b- W( s4 V

While China’s ruling party has not in recent years suppressed news about the death of an important leader, officials rarely, if ever, discuss the health of current or former leaders, and they ban news coverage of those subjects.
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“I don’t want to believe rumors, but what am I supposed to do when rumors always turn out to be true in this country?” said a posting on Sina Weibo, the popular microblogging site that on Wednesday seemed to be suffering an especially zealous rash of censorship.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。- _2 n- Z1 F5 ~, I# {
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In many instances, the offending words contain the character “Jiang,” the former leader’s surname, which also means “river” in Chinese. Huadong, also unsearchable, is the top-notch hospital where Mr. Jiang,the once jaunty Communist Party general secretary, may or may not have been treated for a heart attack, a stroke or infected mosquito bites — all ailments alternately blamed for his disappearance from public view.# ?; o0 U8 w, w( u; K* q$ r( ~

Speculative online accounts have repeated as fact the rumor that the respirator supposedly keeping Mr. Jiang alive would be unplugged on July 8. The number eight is considered lucky among the Chinese because it rhymes with another character meaning prosperity. (While the accounts are likely to be false, some historical accounts say an ailing Mao Zedong was taken off life support on Sept. 9, 1976, because the ninth day of the ninth month would be an easy date for the masses to remember.)
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Mr. Jiang last appeared on state television in2009, when he joined other senior leaders reviewing a military spectacle marking the 60th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。; _3 l% F, c7 d+ C& v- h( I( f
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Talk about Mr. Jiang’s impending demise has ricocheted across the Internet and then faded numerous times over the years.But his failure to show up at the 90th anniversary celebration, a required event for retired party elders as well as current leaders, raises the likelihood that he is in fact ailing.% B7 i/ P' V3 G) l; ^$ ~* Y
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A Hong Kong television station went so far as to broadcast news of Mr. Jiang’s death before retracting the report. And overseas Chinese Web sites that specialize in political gossip have been claiming that Mr. Jiang died Tuesday night or that a large number of police officers were spotted outside the Beijing hospital that caters to senior leaders. (Not surprisingly, that institution, the 301 Military Hospital, can no longer be searched on the Internet.)
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Sam Crane, a China expert at Williams College, suggested that the government censorship machine was counterproductive. “It’s making them look very foolish,” he said. “The state is trying to control information so they can control the narrative, but in the Internet era that’s harder and harder to do.”

The narrative about Communist Party leaders has always been a fraught business, with the passing of top leaders sometimes proving politically disruptive. In 1976, after the death of the beloved Prime Minister Zhou Enlai, party leaders tried to suppress public mourning. In the end, as many as two million people defied the authorities by gathering in Tiananmen Square, where they criticized the Gang of Four, Mao and the excesses of his Cultural Revolution.5.39.217.76" n" ^0 P9 ?7 t6 Q- U& ?& `8 ]( }
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A decade later, the unexpected death of General Secretary Hu Yaobang led to an outpouring of public grief in Tiananmen Square that morphed into a mass protest against the party. That episode, which ended in a hail of gunfire on June 4, 1989, shook the party to its core.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。; s1 c: t5 [) k9 H, u7 k# f. E
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The death of Mr. Jiang, whose tenure is not especially savored by Chinese liberals, would not be likely to draw such an emotional public response. But the Communist Party does not like to leave anything to chance.

Roderick MacFarquhar, a China specialist at Harvard University, said that even if the rumor about Mr. Jiang’s failing health proved true, the party had never hidden public disclosure about the death of a senior leader. Any delay, even if brief, might be aimed at allowing the members of the Politburo Standing Committee to prepare his obituary and public eulogy, which would presumably be delivered by President Hu Jintao, who succeeded him as party chief.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。& q- n" o0 }* O. O: t" d# |$ m

“They need time to prepare, not so much for the funeral, but for the description of the man and his place in Chinese Communist Party history,” Mr. MacFarquhar said.5.39.217.76# p1 D% Q# [6 G. G- P: g
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In the meantime, the government’s handling of the matter seems to be prompting a torrent of ridicule on the Internet, especially on Twitter and other overseas sites that are beyond the control of Beijing’s censors. On Wednesday, people began circulating photographs of Mr. Jiang shaking hands with the former leader Deng Xiaoping (“they meet again”) and a cartoon of a pair of trousers hanging on a clothesline that is meant to be a reference to a Chinese euphemism for death.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb! L1 |# q# L* m3 }
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Mia Li and Adam Century contributed research.

作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-7-8 06:18 AM

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-7-8 06:27 AM 編輯
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Jiang Zemin death rumours spark online crackdown in China
Tania Branigan and Associated Press 7 Jul 2011公仔箱論壇/ e5 `, g( }# |# k& K/ g' E
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All internet searches for former leader – whose name means river – blocked, but savvy users find ways to get around ittvb now,tvbnow,bttvb; h& t" n# C8 X" T1 q

Even for China's rigorous internet censors, it has proved an unusually busy day. References to rivers and laundry are among the apparently innocuous items vanishing from postings and search results amid rumours that Jiang Zemin, who led the country before president Hu Jintao took over in 2002, is dead or seriously ill.
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Similar tales have circulated several times in the past. This time they seem to have been prompted by the 84-year-old's absence from celebrations for the 90th anniversary of the Communist party on Friday. Heis normally a staple of such events and other former leaders were shown at the gathering.

Sina, which runs a wildly popular microblog service, went to increasing lengths to keep the topic off-limits. Searches forthe leader's name, or even just for "jiang" – river – resulted in the warning: "Search results are not shown due to relevant laws and policies."

They even began to remove one of the cheekiest references to Jiang: an empty set of clothes hanging up, with the trousers hitched to Simon Cowell-level. The former leader is known for his high waistline.5.39.217.765 L# Q. g6 f! z5 V

But some internet users began posting about a leader called "River", using the English word.) @. Y: o( F7 |/ r- v% ?

The lengths to which authorities are going are all the more striking because Jiang's death would be unlikely to cause major ripples.

"We are not going to see a palace coup of any sort," said Steve Tsang of the University of Nottingham, an expert on succession in China.

"We are not going to see a leadership change as a result of Jiang Zemin's passing away and we are not going to see a majorreversal in any major policy."

Two Hong Kong television stations have reported that Jiang has died, citing unidentified sources.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb' [% M! s9 |0 _ n7 k
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The Wall Street Journal's website reported that Sina had also blocked searches for words such as "myocardial infarction", "hung" – a euphemism for death – and "301Hospital" – a reference to the medical facility that often treats top leaders.3 _" n, q* M* I/ D( o, c6 {4 I
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Chinese internet users have become increasingly adept at evading censorship, often using images, analogies, Roman script and puns. But David Bandurski, of the University of Hong Kong's China Media Project, said censorship ghettoises discussions, so that they do not spread beyond small groups of people who recognise the relevant code words.
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Chinese officials still "want to control the conversation as ultimately as they can," he said.

作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-7-8 06:23 AM

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-7-8 06:27 AM 編輯

China insistsreports of Jiang Zemin's death are 'pure rumour'TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5 R3 {1 R+ b' g4 v' _& h( y
Johnathan Watts The Guardian 7 Jul 2011
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Denial that former president has died unlikely to quell online and overseas speculationtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb$ r1 y, @7 j/ s3 z

Reports of the death of the former president Jiang Zemin have been greatly exaggerated, the Chinese state media has insisted, amid a frenzy of speculation online and overseas.
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In an unusual move, state news agency Xinhua issued a brief denial that the 84-year-old statesman had passed away to quell rumours that began on Friday when Jiang failed to attend the biggest political event of the year – a 90th anniversary celebration to mark the founding of the Chinese Communist party.
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Asia Television of Hong Kong broadcast a report on Wednesday claiming Jiang had died of an unnamed illness. Japanese and South Korean media issued similar bulletins. Chinese journalists said they had been told to expect news on Thursday, but the only comment was a single line from Xinhua.
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"Recent reports of some overseas media organizations about Jiang Zemin's death from illness are pure rumour," the newswire said, quoting unnamed "authoritative sources".

Despite the denial, speculation is unlikely to fully die down until Jiang is seen again in public. The last such big occasionwas in October 2009 for the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic. Jiang was also present at an event in Sichuan last year, where his car was reportedly followed by an ambulance. Jiang is said to be suffering from an illness and possibly hospitalised, although it is hard to confirm because China treats the health of its leaders as a state secret.

Until today, censors have tried to quell speculation by blocking references to related words on blogs and search engines: "Jiang", "myocardial infarction", "hung"– a euphemism for death – and "301 Hospital" – a reference to the medical facility where he was said to be treated.) B) _/ _" P) p! u( X3 j( z
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Searches for "jiang", which means river,resulted in the warning: "Search results are not shown due to relevant laws and policies." Netizens sidestepped the prohibition by using English words and allusions.

The US-based dissident news site Boxun.com said Shandong News in eastern China had its website disabled by authorities for reporting Jiang's death, though the newspaper dismissed Boxun's report.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb' f0 @7 o2 {" t) \5 t1 i  R6 M; N' X- O
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Boxun showed what it said was a screenshot of Shandong News with a banner headline reading "Venerable Comrade Jiang Zemin Will Never Be Forgotten" next to a photo of the former leader.
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A woman in the news department at Shandong News said the newspaper's site went offline on Wednesday because its servers crashed and it was still trying to fix the problem.公仔箱論壇  K$ j  R6 Z. u, W* O$ h
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The woman, who would only give her surname, Wang,said the website never posted news saying Jiang had died.公仔箱論壇8 x7 o0 ~: X0 W* o' {1 `

"That's a rumour," she said. "Maybe someone with ulterior motives made that screenshot."
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The internet cat-and-mouse game over the possible death of a former leader underscores how secretive China's Communist party leadership remains – and the difficulties of maintaining that secrecy in a well-wired society.
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Jiang Zemin rose to power in the wake of the 1989 Tiananmen Square killings, oversaw the handover of Hong Kong in 1997 and led his country until 2002, by which time it was one of the world's most powerful economies. He was replaced by the current president Hu Jintao.

作者: aa00 時間: 2011-7-8 12:35 PM

本帖最後由 aa00 於 2011-7-8 01:13 PM 編輯
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2011年 7月 07日5.39.217.76( g/ K$ E( I; N& m6 H7 }

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世界媒體看中國：老人·謠言·政治·熱鬧$ r" N! i' K$ K: L* C! T

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VOA  記者: 齊之豐 | 華盛頓
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TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。* J. g3 q+ u6 B: x# r5 R

圖片來源: 2011年7月7日産經新聞報導PDF截屏公仔箱論壇4 v2 i5 l9 _% @/ u
日本“産經新聞”錯誤報導江澤民已去世tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb1 X: y$ {( f( M/ W5 f
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在一般情況下，在一般國家，一位即將85歲的老人，即使是一位退休國家元首，行將85歲，身體不適，病重，已經去世，或沒有去世，這樣的消息或傳聞不會成為非同一般的大新聞。# k' }1 J; }2 m0 K; F) V& n; B
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然而，中國的情況非同一般。中國前國家主席江澤民可能病重或已經去世的傳聞7月5日半夜時分在中國的網際網路上流傳開來之後，中國當局全面開動新聞出版檢查以及網路資訊封鎖機器，對有關的消息實行全面的封鎖。

在當局的封鎖措施之下，中國的長江也從中國的網際網路網路空間消失（參看美國之音7月6日的詳細中文報導：“世界媒體看中國：江澤民‘被失蹤；’”“當局急阻涉江帖平添多少敏感詞”）。這種比人咬狗還離奇的新聞，顯然使世界各國的記者興奮異常。" h! o3 [- O( x3 j" C) W
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*外國記者的娛樂*
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報導這樣的離奇新聞使外國記者得以把工作和娛樂結合起來，使工作變成娛樂，娛樂變成工作，讓他們好像返回了童年，讓他們得以充分展示自己的正經、假正經、幽默、冷峻、深邃、博學、認真、風趣、歡快......他們甚至借此機會相互逗趣打鬧。

法國的《巴黎競賽》畫報網站發表的一篇報導，可以説是一個很顯眼的例子。

儘管中國官方媒體7月7日星期三正式否認江澤民已死，《巴黎競賽》畫報發表的亞尼克·維裏的報導依然是洋溢著調侃。這篇報導的題目是：“江澤民的真假死，” 副標題是：“中國前國家元首（1993-2003）依然活著麼？官方媒體要人放心，但謠傳依然在網路間流傳。”

維裏報導的正文依然是這種歡快興奮的口吻，而且在歡快中還不忘揶揄一下日本的新聞界同行：公仔箱論壇% W4 d( }3 I3 d& J! y7 |3 x7 M

“國家機密。中國前國家主席江澤民將作為鎮壓1989年天安門示威抗議的人之一載入史冊。自星期三他死亡的傳聞傳出之後，中國的網路資訊審查機構超忙碌起來。應當説，這一次北京的傳播機構被弄了個猝不及防。......網民立即通過社交網路把消息傳開來，儘管很多關鍵詞......立即被封殺，其中包括江澤民的‘江’字。星期四，日本的《産經新聞》還發出報導，證實中國這位前強人死亡，從而再添一份亂。”
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*《産經新聞》受揶揄*
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不幸的《産經新聞》被揶揄也只能暗自苦笑。7月7日，在中國官方的新華社發出正式否認之前的幾個小時，跟日本其他主要報紙一樣向以嚴肅持重著稱的《産經新聞》為江澤民去世發出一份網路版號外。

《産經新聞》號外的通欄大標題是：“江澤民（84歲）死去”。副標題是：“（江的去世）對中國的權力結構的影響  /（江乃）習近平的後盾 /  前國家主席。”公仔箱論壇( t$ Y, d& Q5 X8 U8 X- |  {. E
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《産經新聞》的這個大錯不但被遠在法國的《巴黎競賽》畫報揶揄，在日本國內，總部設在東京的網路新聞網站J-CAST新聞網也拿它來當笑柄。7月7日，J-CAST新聞網發表一條新聞，標題是：“江澤民是死是活？《産經新聞》對新華社、對面決鬥。”公仔箱論壇& X; g. D3 [* J" n" c% J
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*日本報紙的嚴肅持重*5.39.217.766 d, l" s) a' R, G& T% W
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。% k. `8 O& X3 \" G
與此同時，日本其他主要報紙則依然遵循嚴肅持重的路線，進行一本正經的報導。例如，《日本經濟新聞》7月7日發表駐北京記者島田學的報導，題目是：“中國否認江澤民死去 /  消息來源説他‘健康狀況惡化。’”報導説：5.39.217.76. Y3 _, A% _! u7 w
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“好幾個中國消息來源7日表示，傳説中健康不佳的江澤民前國家主席‘雖然沒有死去，但狀況不妙。’這些消息來源證實江的狀況在惡化。但是，對於江澤民已經去世的報導，中國國營的新華社7日援引多位政府官員的話説，‘有關的報導純屬謠言。’”

*英語報紙的活潑調皮*
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與幾乎總是一本正經的日本報紙報導相比，英語世界的報導就顯得明顯活潑，甚至非常活潑。澳大利亞主要報紙之一《雪梨先驅晨報》7月8日發表一篇報導，其標題乾脆玩起了文字遊戲：

Beijing rules: don't speak ill of Jiang
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。" U1 e2 L' r0 }+ H. C
這種文字遊戲讓翻譯絕望，因為它一語雙關，既可以表示“北京裁定：不準説江壞話，”也可以表示“北京裁定：不準説江有病。”翻譯只能是一次選擇一種，難以同時包含兩種的意思。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。2 z+ `. J' S! _1 U; R5 L) y5 R" O
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《雪梨先驅晨報》在那文字遊戲的標題下，轉載的是華盛頓郵報駐北京記者基斯·裏奇伯格6日發表、7日更新的一篇報導。
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查華盛頓郵報裏奇伯格報導的原文，其標題一本正經，一點也不調皮：“中國封鎖網際網路有關江澤民的搜索結果；否認有關他死亡的報導。”5.39.217.761 g% x. A& F$ x- R' B' y' b8 R
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裏奇伯格報導的內容也中規中矩，十分穩健嚴肅：/ p( ]$ I$ c3 A+ ^+ i+ e
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“中國的媒體審查機構星期三開始封殺一些詞的網際網路搜索結果，試圖撲滅有關患病的前國家主席江澤民健康狀況的傳聞猜測。星期四，官方的新聞通訊社否認他已死報導，説那都是‘純屬謠言。’

“上個星期五江澤民沒有同其他高級領導人一道出席慶祝中國共産黨成立90週年的活動。自那時以來，有關84歲的江澤民瀕臨死亡或已經死亡的傳聞在微網志網站滿天飛。多年來一直有謠傳説，江澤民患病。”

*主戲是網際網路封鎖*TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。$ s4 S5 f1 ]" ~

在過去兩天有關中國的報導中，中國當局網際網路資訊審查機構的封鎖和中國網民鬥智鬥勇、突破當局資訊封鎖是世界媒體報導的重點。$ t7 Y  L' }; R' z# ^2 d* W5 A
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與裏奇伯格相比，路透社7月7日發表的駐北京記者本·布蘭查德和魏遂禮（譯音）的報導，又顯得輕鬆愉快了很多。該報導的題目是：“富有創造性的中國人繞過網路審查機關搜索‘江大伯。’” 報導説：- C- K) b' Z6 Y1 R! y( S
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“這是中國網際網路上最熱門的一個話題，但是當局不準許任何人談論。
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。2 x1 a* P( V( f# `# S+ A/ w0 ?
“在海外媒體報導了前國家主席江澤民死去之後，中國內行的網際網路用戶就不斷找到富有創造性的途徑翻越網際網路國家防火牆。所謂的防火牆是中國保安當局設立的網際網路屏障，用來干擾或阻斷人們從網上獲取當局認為是過於敏感的資訊。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb9 c6 {6 X, B1 ~- X) _# w

“在中國的微網志或搜索引擎搜索欄中鍵入‘江澤民，’人們所能得到的只是被遮罩的網頁或慢騰騰的連接。在部落格裏寫‘江澤民’這個名字，人們就會受到資訊審查機關的格外關注。敏感的言論常常一上網就消失。5.39.217.76( r: ~. [6 R1 `8 y

“但中國人使用‘江大伯，’‘超級垂簾聽政者，’‘前皇帝’之類的詞語，來進行跟這個問題相關的活潑的辯論，雖然這種辯論讓局外人不摸頭腦。”
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英國倫敦《電訊報》同日發表的報導標題，則讓讀者不禁覺得它話裏有話：“中國堅持説，有關江澤民死亡的謠傳是假的。”. Q  K& i. S( w, s5 k" A
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《電訊報》報導的重點也在中國當局的網路封鎖和中國網民的突破封鎖，報導既滑稽又深沉：5.39.217.76, f3 |! [* r( I0 j( B- b0 a( l5 `; q

“網民搜索中文的‘江澤民’或搜索江河的‘江’字，會得到新浪網微搏網站的警告，説這種搜索是非法的。”公仔箱論壇" x. j6 D/ j# j2 f$ Q
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“於是，新浪微網志那裏就開始出現一些有關這位前領導人的帖子，他的姓氏用英語‘River’來代表。”

“網際網路上圍繞著中國一位前領導人是否死去這一話題的這種貓捉老鼠的遊戲凸顯出中國共産黨領導層依然多麼神神秘秘，以及在網際網路普及的一個社會維持這種神秘多麼困難。”

*中國特殊的政治*tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb1 j8 q0 M$ i/ }1 t4 J

對外部世界來説，一個84歲的老人的身體健康狀況成為世界人口第一大國的一個不能公開報導或談論的話題，成為千百萬網際網路用戶跟當局鬥智鬥勇的由頭，這種奇異的政治現象讓人很難理解。
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華爾街日報記者傑裏米·佩奇及時寫出一篇報導，給人們解惑。佩奇報導的題目是：“為什麼中國試圖封鎖遮罩有關江澤民的議論？”報導説：
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“在外部世界看來，中國試圖封鎖遮罩人們談論前國家主席顯然是生病的事情，這或許顯得不必要，也是徒勞，畢竟在過去的幾天裏有關的言傳已經在網際網路上迅速傳開了。

“但是，中國共産黨非常清楚，現任和前任領導人的死亡在過去常常會引起政治動蕩。最明顯的一個例子是在1989年，(胡耀邦之死)引起要求民主的抗議示威。5.39.217.76& @+ p( S, D( A6 H. A

“因此，公開討論黨的領袖的健康一直被嚴格禁止。一個主要原因是中國這些領導人年齡一般比外國領導人大，但他們依然試圖給人一種富有青春活力的印象。”TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。' {( ^6 e4 ?5 n: u+ C; ^

印度的主要報紙《印度教徒報》駐北京記者安南思·克裏什南在7月7日發出的報導中，則對有關江澤民生死的謠傳所顯露出來的獨特中國政治做出了這樣的一番介紹：% |* I# P7 D8 H5 E7 ~% D
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“本星期有關（江澤民生死的）謠傳起因于他沒有出席7月1日（中共慶祝成立90年）慶祝活動。前總理李鵬和朱熔基都參加了那些活動。”tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb/ |% t5 `7 F4 }3 S4 U3 H7 A$ r( W+ k

“在2009年慶祝中華人民共和國建國60週年活動中，江澤民被給予突出的報導。很多中國分析人士認為，這反映出他退休多年之後依然可以繼續在幕後發揮相當大的影響力。”

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tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb, @$ ?! J( ^' ~2 v* o2 ]+ p
來源 / 版權所有：  以上所述媒体 / 美國之音
(以上内容摘自或摘译自其它媒体 / 美國之音，不代表發帖者观点)

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註：上文引述相關媒體，摘文轉貼樓下

作者: aa00 時間: 2011-7-8 12:41 PM

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L’ancien chef d’Etat chinois (1993-2003) est-il toujours vivant ? Si les médias officiels se veulent rassurants, la rumeur court toujours sur le Net.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。* k7 ~* V( s5 r: G
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。4 V4 \0 m! G: K% A4 C  l& F

Yannick Vely - Parismatch.com 5.39.217.76' U; r# Q5 Q/ X( N5 x# D; `5 L

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Secret d’Etat. Depuis mercredi et les premières annonces de la mort de l’ancien président chinois, Jiang Zemin, qui restera aussi dans l’Histoire comme l’un des hommes de la répression des manifestations de Tienanmen en 1989, les censeurs chinois sont sur le qui-vive. Il faut dire que la communication de Pékin a cette fois-ci été prise de court. Si les spéculations sur l’état de santé de Jiang Zemin avaient été relancées après son absence remarquée aux célébrations du 90e anniversaire de la naissance de Mao Zedong, le 1 juillet dernier, l’annonce de sa mort sur la chaîne de télévision hongkongaise ATV, mercredi, a fait l’effet d’une bombe médiatique incontrôlable. Les utilisateurs du Web ont immédiatement diffusé l’information sur les réseaux sociaux, bien que de nombreux mots-clés – dont infarctus du myocarde et iang (rivière en chinois)  associés à l’ancien maire de Shanghai et à sa mort à l’âge de 84 ans aient été immédiatement censurés. Jeudi, le quotidien japonais «Sankei Shimbun» a encore rajouté un élément à la confusion, en confirmant le décès de l’ancien homme fort de la Chine.公仔箱論壇- o% C8 S9 {* b) r7 z

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Un démenti officielSelon l’agence Chine Nouvelle qui reprend les déclarations officielles, les récentes informations sur la mort ou la maladie de Jiang Zemin sont «de pures rumeurs». Selon le site dissident Boxun.com, le journal chinois Shandong News avait fait paraître sur son site internet une mention au décès de l’ancien leader – «Vénérable camarade Jiang Zemin nous ne t’oublierons pas»  - ce qu’a démenti la rédaction du site. Ce dernier a d’ailleurs – hasard ou coïncidence… - été inaccessible quelques heures durant. Ce remue-ménage sur la mort prévisible d’un dirigeant de 84 ans démontre une fois de plus le climat d’inquiétude qui règne à Pékin. Ses prises de position anti-étudiants lors des événements meurtriers de la place Tiananmen, en 1989 lui ont valu de devenir secrétaire général du Parti communiste dans la foulée, en lieu et place de Deng Xiaping et de purger les rangs du parti des réformateurs favorables à la prise en compte des aspirations de la jeunesse. En plaçant des proches à des postes-clés – «la bande de Shanghai» -, Jiang Zemin – qui conservera jusqu’en 2004 son poste de président de la Commission militaire centrale -, noyautera le pouvoir pendant plus de dix ans, avant de céder sa place au président chinois actuel, Hu Jintao.公仔箱論壇! r/ q! Z$ P  q2 Y: i9 g5 B
Pékin redoute-t-il  alors qu’une partie de la dissidence fête la mort de ce liberticide ? Depuis l’obtention du prix Nobel de la Paix par Liu Xiaobo, et plus encore après la révolution du Jasmin en Tunisie, qui a ensuite gagné l'Egypte et la Libye, Pékin veille au grain, pour que les «porcs» ne se mettent pas à grogner. Selon le site Chinese Human Rights Defender, pas moins de 49 dissidents ont été arrêtés, après des appels anonymes à la révolution lancés sur Internet mi-février et des manifestations de soutien aux révolutionnaires arabes. Neuf personnes ont été formellement arrêtées, dont trois envoyés en camp de rééducation par le travail. Vingt-trois autres ont été libérés sous caution dans l’attente de leur procès. Et le site de détailler le sort de chacun, avocats, écrivains, blogueurs ou simples activistes pour une société plus juste et égalitaire en Chine. Le gouvernement de Hu Jintao mène ainsi une guerre sans précédent contre la cyber-dissidence, surveillant les réseaux sociaux comme le lait sur le feu. Il est toujours impossible pour le citoyen chinois de s'informer sur les révolutions menées dans les pays arabes ou sur la crise nucléaire de Fukushima, sans prendre le risque d'être traqué à son tour par les autorités.

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來源 / 版權所有：  以上所述媒体 tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb. e3 o8 @$ ~' {- x. i, C5 p
(以上内容摘自或摘译自其它媒体，不代表發帖者观点)

作者: aa00 時間: 2011-7-8 12:45 PM

江沢民前国家主席が死去　今後の日中関係にも影響かtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb& |. @2 x" f8 E, m! e' G
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。0 P! f3 ?$ ]# s2 ^- e3 t

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2011.7.7 09:43 tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb ~ Y( |# L" @& q) ]0 h) ~
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5.39.217.765 `0 t7 [5 u" {$ `- I8 m% ?5 z

クリックして拡大するTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。6 ]6 e7 w& b1 K0 l3 e/ m
江沢民前国家主席（ロイター）
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TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。8 A# _6 o5 T0 f8 t- s; O
　中国の江沢民前国家主席が６日夕、北京で死去したことが７日分かった。日中関係筋が明らかにした。８４歳だった。遺体は北京市内の人民解放軍総医院（３０１病院）に安置されていると見られる。関係者は「脳死」と話している。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb; D# y* j8 J: }! N3 N( O. m+ a

　江氏は１９８９年から２００２年まで中国の最高指導者である共産党総書記を務め、改革開放路線を推進して高度経済成長を実現する一方、貧富の格差拡大を生み出した。次期最高指導者と目される習近平国家副主席の有力な支持者でもあり、江氏の死去は今後の政局や日中関係にも影響を与えそうだ。
　中国のメディア関係者によると、江氏は長期間にわたり膀胱（ぼうこう）がんで療養していた。４月ごろから体調を崩して入院、６月下旬から危篤の状態が続いていた。７月１日の中国共産党創建９０周年の祝賀大会を欠席したため、重病説や死去説が流れていた。
　江沢民氏は江蘇省出身。１９４７年に上海交通大を卒業。５５年、当時のソ連の自動車修理工場で研修した経歴をもつ。電子工業相を経て８５年に上海市長、８７年に上海トップの上海党委書記に就任。
　８９年６月、民主化運動を弾圧した天安門事件直後にトウ小平氏ら長老たちに抜擢（ばってき）され、総書記の座に上りつめた。国家元首である国家主席は９３年３月から０３年３月まで務めた。
　９７年のトウ氏死去後、名実ともに中国の最高指導者となった。
　在任中、企業家の共産党入党を積極的に認めるなど党改革を手掛けたが、言論の自由や民主化に向けた改革には消極的だった。
　引退後も、上海閥のリーダーとして政界に影響力を持ち続け、上海閥と良好な関係にある習副主席を支援してきた。
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來源 / 版權所有：《産經新聞》
(以上内容摘自或摘译自《産經新聞》，不代表發帖者观点)

作者: aa00 時間: 2011-7-8 12:52 PM

SOURCE : The Sydney Morning Herald Beijing rules: don't speak ill of Jiang

Keith Richburg, Beijing July 8, 2011. E. |- s6 J7 C

CHINA'S media censors have blocked internet references to ailing retired leader Jiang Zemin after rumours spread that he had died.
Speculation has been rife on microblogging sites that Mr Jiang, 84, was dying or had died after he failed to appear last Friday alongside other top leaders for ceremonies marking the 90th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party's founding./ b6 D: m0 E/ i
Mr Jiang has been rumoured to have been in ill health for years. On the most popular local Twitter-like microblogging site, Sina.com, searches were blocked for terms including ''301'', the name of the Beijing military hospital where China's top leaders are treated. Also blocked was Mr Jiang's name, which means ''river'' in Chinese, as well as ''brain death'' and ''brain dead''." X( I/ m( }6 Q- u( ]
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Savvy internet users found ways around the restrictions by chatting using other common words for ''river'' to refer to Jiang.

There was no official word on Mr Jiang's health - not unusual in a country where basic facts about senior officials are closely guarded secrets. But the explosive growth of the internet in China, with millions of microblogging sites, or ''weibo'', is challenging the Communist Party's monopoly on information.

The blocking of the search terms suggested leaders were aware of the speculation and were determined to try to control the timing and manner of any announcement about Mr Jiang.

The current leadership might also be sensitive to how the public will react to an announcement of Mr Jiang's death.

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Mr Jiang, who took over as party secretary after the Tiananmen Square massacre of 1989, was viewed as a free-market economic reformer who reduced the state's role in business, brought China into the World Trade Organisation and improved relations with the US.

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Late on Wednesday, the website of a Hong Kong TV station published what appeared to be a tribute to Mr Jiang, without confirming whether he had died.

Mr Jiang was last seen publicly in 2009 at ceremonies marking the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. Reports of his health come as China is preparing to move to a new generation of leaders next year.

Mr Jiang was said to be the leader of one faction manoeuvring behind the scenes to support his favoured candidates for elevation to the ruling Standing Committee.

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WASHINGTON POST

TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。& U/ k+ c: E4 z3 _3 p s

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作者: aa00 時間: 2011-7-8 12:59 PM

Creative Chinese skirt censors to search for "Uncle Jiang"

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By Ben Blanchard and Sui-Lee Wee
BEIJING | Thu Jul 7, 2011 3:50am EDT 1 f7 p6 F2 H) k+ m8 x

TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。/ L+ k  H+ X$ s

BEIJING (Reuters) - It is the most popular subject on China's Internet that no one is allowed to talk about.
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After overseas media reported the death of former President Jiang Zemin, web-savvy Internet users in China are finding creative ways to jump the Great Firewall, the cloak of Internet security authorities use to disrupt or halt access to things deemed too sensitive for the Internet.
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Type "Jiang Zemin" into a microblog or search box in China and you don't get much but a blocked site or a sluggish connection. Write it into a blog and you are inviting scrutiny. Sensitive comments are often deleted as quickly as they appear.

But using terms like "Uncle Jiang," "super-sovereign backstage ruler," and "former emperor," Chinese are engaging in a rather lively, if oblique, debate about the issue., e9 E- P: T' M  T# z

Chinese state media denied a Hong Kong television station's reports that Jiang had died, sparking a wave of speculation about the 84-year-old's condition.公仔箱論壇( |9 v1 c' S  w  E
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( Y% D% I$ L9 I
Despite censorship, the keyword search "Jiang Zemin" was the most-discussed topic on the popular Twitter-style site Weibo Wednesday night.

More than 140 million Chinese have embraced microblogs -- 140-character messages -- as their latest tool for spreading information and opinions that can rile Chinese Communist Party's officials.5.39.217.76' P6 Q; q3 {) c( L

Jiang aside, Weibo search results for China's current premier and president, Wen Jiabao and Hu Jintao, respectively, have long been blocked.公仔箱論壇/ p9 ~. D" p7 T4 N" f  C
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Search results for "Jiang" (which means river), "Chang Jiang" (the Yangtze River), "Taishanghuang" (super-sovereign backstage ruler) and "Xiandi" (former emperor) showed pages that said "according to relevant laws, regulations and policies, search results are not displayed."tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb/ ?1 v6 d- v" Y
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"The death of Uncle Jiang has been totally blocked. What kind of a society is this?" said a microblogger on Weibo who managed to skirt the rules.0 z' N" W/ b( Z/ N

China's top search engine Baidu did not block Jiang's name and its data showed that the number of searches for "Jiang Zemin" spiked more than 4,000 percent this week.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb8 X& H! }4 D6 X. z
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。4 Y! i+ ^: v4 j/ r$ v
China blocks popular foreign sites like Facebook, Twitter and YouTube, fearing the uncensored sharing of images and information among the nation's more than 450 million users could cause social instability, especially after online calls for Arab-inspired "Jasmine Revolution" protests.

Before state news agency Xinhua denied the rumors of Jiang's death around midday Thursday, microbloggers were criticizing the Chinese government's silence.
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"When Mao and Deng died, it was announced in a timely way," there's no reason to cover this up," said a microblogger, referring to China's former leaders Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.
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Other bloggers complained that the media was responsible for fuelling the rumor mill.$ b" Q( g" ~+ ^  T# H
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。! S' e5 I) t  d/ I/ `
"Why are some people spreading all kinds of rumors, saying such and such have passed away?" said another microblogger. "What I want to say to you, you people in the media who are playing this up, your brutality and cold-heartedness are poisoning the country. Why are you doing this?"

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作者: aa00 時間: 2011-7-8 01:06 PM

SOURCE: THE WALL STREET JOURNAL TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( p# N* o, H8 |6 @. K8 e) U
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb$ E0 V8 a0 _$ a" H9 T+ B: O [
Why China Is Trying to Censor Talk About Jiang Zemin
July 7, 2011, 8:42 PM HKT ! M6 c' b! \0 B+ ]
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Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesA file photo taken on October 24, 2002 shows then-Chinese President Jiang Zemin using his hands to answer a question from a member of the audience following his speech at the George Bush Presidential Conference Center on the campus of Texas A&M University in College Station, Texas. 5 v& N& r4 I$ N* W

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TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。9 B* [0 p7 m, r& e- f

Mark Avery/Associated PressChinese students hold aloft a banner calling for ‘Freedom & Democracy Enlightenment’ on the martyrs monument in Beijing’ s Tiananmen Square festooned on Wednesday, April 19, 1989 with a giant portrait of Hu Yaobang.

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To the outside world, China’s efforts to censor talk of the apparent illness of former President Jiang Zemin might seem unnecessary – and futile, given how quickly word has spread over the Internet in the last few days.
But the Communist Party is acutely aware that the death of current and former Chinese leaders has often been a trigger for political instability in the past – most notably the pro-democracy protests around Tiananmen Square in 1989.5.39.217.76  J/ w  ]7 @( X: K
And public discussion of Party leaders’ health has always been strictly taboo – not least because they are generally older than their foreign counterparts, but still try to project an image of youth and vitality.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb. m, K* W# s2 B; j- T* |
The culture of secrecy dates far back in China’s history.8 W8 i+ s* z# j
Legend has it that China’s first emperor, Qin Shi Huangdi, died while traveling in 210 BC, so his prime minister – fearing an uprising before he could return to the capital – arranged for two carts of fish to escort the imperial carriage for two weeks to cover up the smell of the rotting corpse.
A similar mentality was perpetuated in the Communist era by Chairman Mao Zedong, who ruled until his death at the age of 82, despite being virtually incapacitated by illness in his latter years.
When he eventually died in the early hours of September 9, 1976, authorities did not announce the news for about 16 hours, according to news reports from the time.
His death triggered a bitter power struggle, which led to the conviction of the “Gang of Four” – including Mao’s wife Jiang Qing – and the emergence of Deng Xiaoping as China’s supreme leader.1 Y4 V! J! d7 J* Y
The death of Hu Yaobang, a popular former Party chief, in April 1989 was also a catalyst for political instability as thousands of students took to the streets to pay their respects to him and protest over the government’s low-key funeral arrangements.; r" x' D* Z' L# m2 J: d
Those demonstrations then snowballed into broader protests in favor of political reform, which were then crushed by the army, killing hundreds, possibly thousands.5.39.217.76# B9 m+ v" x! R' {) T
Like Mao, Mr. Deng also remained China’s paramount leader until his death in 1997 at the age of 92, although he held no formal office after 1990, did not appear in public after 1994, and was largely incapacitated by Parkinson’s disease in his final three years.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb# o7 n9 c* K" ]  R* h8 C$ L
He died shortly after 9 pm on February 19, 1997, but his death was not announced by the official Xinhua news agency until early the next day, according to reports at the time from the Associated Press.2 p3 x( s. }1 a  y( M9 h# Z- O
After Deng passed away, Jiang Zemin launched a drive to consolidate his own power base by forcing rivals – particularly the relatively liberal Qiao Shi – to retire., V  @; n" i2 T* e  t' {# |
Ironically, it is thanks to Mr. Jiang that his own death – whenever it happens — is unlikely to trigger another bout of political unrest or infighting since he did not retain ultimate power after ceding his Party and government posts to his successor, Hu Jintao, between 2002 and 2004. It was the first peaceful and orderly transition of power in the Party’s history, and established unofficial age limits at which senior leaders are now expected to retire automatically.
And while rumors of the death of Mr. Jiang, who was known for his love of karaoke and frequent fashion faux pas, have sparked nostalgic chatter among some who lament the blandness of the country’s current crop of leaders, chances seem slim that his death would galvanize government critics the way the passing of the more liberal Hu Yaobang did in 1989.公仔箱論壇. Y' K0 p8 |5 t& B' C
None of that appears, however, to have made the Party any more comfortable about explaining Mr. Jiang’s surprise absence from a ceremony Friday marking the 90th anniversary of the Party’s founding.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb& l  F* ?. M4 n5 r0 |" d; T
– Jeremy Page; p, c5 _& `4 {
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作者: aa00 時間: 2011-7-9 10:10 AM

本帖最後由 aa00 於 2011-7-9 10:18 AM 編輯 tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb& N4 [3 w5 M! N* E; L5 n* e$ c, X
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2011年 7月 08日
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世界媒體看中國：謠言·學術·文學·政治
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記者: 齊之豐 | 華盛頓
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圖片來源: AP
中國過濾有關前國家主席江澤民的健康話題。圖為年輕人在北京一個網吧使用網際網路5.39.217.76, {! |: ]# h/ f5 l: L

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TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。1 u( C2 \! R: ]
在外界以及中國網民間盛傳中國前國家主席江澤民已經去世之際，中國執政黨共産黨宣傳部門控制下的中國各大網際網路網站監控部門開足馬力，刪除一切關於江澤民的帖子，並且連同包含“長江”字眼的帖子一併刪除或遮罩。

在中國當局實行的這種網路資訊控制和封鎖成為國際笑柄十幾個小時之後，中國官方通訊社新華社正式發文否認。新華社援引權威人士的話説，有關報導純屬謠言。/ m! p* ], U8 _: x+ S4 \5 y5 S+ ^( f

*中國的謠言新聞*5.39.217.760 u# f( E* R' z" P) o' O

7月9日中國時間淩晨1點左右，搜索谷歌英文新聞，在搜索欄鍵入“China, rumor”（中國，謠言），可以得到604條搜索結果。其中打頭的是有關江澤民死去謠傳的新聞報導，其中包括新華社的否認在內。接下來的謠傳報導是中國有意投資美國的社交網路臉譜網。

搜索谷歌日文新聞，在搜索欄鍵入“中國，噂”（中國，謠言），可以得到大約50條搜索結果，其中打頭的也是有關江澤民死去謠傳的新聞報導，其中包括新華社的否認在內。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb" K3 S7 `2 \4 m5 U& k% v8 x
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搜索谷歌法文新聞，在搜索欄鍵入“Chine, des rumeurs”（中國，謠言），可以得到大約250條搜索結果，其中打頭的也是有關江澤民死去謠傳的新聞報導。

中國的謠言究竟數量多少，如何辨別，這可以是一個複雜的學術問題，難以一概而論。但毫無疑問的是，當今中國是頻繁出現謠言導致重大新聞事件、甚至導致騷亂的一個大國。謠言導致重大新聞事件的最近例子是江澤民去世的謠言。謠言導致騷亂的最近例子是6月中旬廣東增城騷亂。

“廣州增城發生大規模騷亂: 不要輕信謠言，也不要傳播謠言，更不要被少數人利用，”這是中國官方新聞媒體的一個標準的標題。
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。9 y4 F1 k; d7 ~6 n# \8 D
在發生群體抗議事件的時候，中國官方在進行鎮壓之前總是呼籲民眾“不要輕信謠言，也不要傳播謠言，更不要被少數人利用。”在6月的增城，在5月的內蒙古，在1989年6月的北京，中國當局都是這種説法。
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。$ n; j: M/ n2 z% W( |; v" T8 m1 E# W
*學術外行乎？政治糊塗乎？*

由此可見，無論是關於已經退休的高齡前領導人江澤民的謠言，還是引發民眾上街跟當局對抗的謠言，各種謠言的流傳是令中國當局頭痛的問題。公仔箱論壇4 U3 q5 z) \! J$ q& y
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然而，非常有趣的是，接受中共控制的中國首屈一指的網際網路搜索引擎公司百度屬下“百度百科”居然對謠言頗為讚美，似乎是説謠言越多越好，謠言越多越能顯示一個社會穩定繁榮：
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“謠言是社會大眾傳播不可或缺的一部分，也是人們日常精神文化生活中的調味料。一個穩定繁榮的文化傳播社會應該有一定的謠言産生幾率與其相適應，謠言越多，反應出社會文化傳播活性越強（人們對於傳播的積極性越高），反之，則説明這個社會的大眾傳播或者人際傳播缺少活性。” 5.39.217.76+ T! \) u8 a0 A( E8 X

現在不清楚為“百度百科”撰寫“謠言”詞條這一段的寫手到底學術太外行，還是政治太糊塗，還是存心要跟中共及其政府搗亂。但“百度百科”的這種説法顯然跟正規的有關謠言的社會學、傳播學研究不一樣。; Z( O: \0 [2 z
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學術界在謠言研究上的共識是：謠言是資訊缺乏導致的。也就是説，謠言並不表示繁榮，而是表示貧乏；只有在一個不穩定的社會，謠言才能此伏彼起、長盛不衰。

*謠言與想像力發揮*TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。! c1 f; X6 K: E$ `

擁有哈佛大學社會學博士學位的香港科技大學教授丁學良本星期四在接受美國之音駐香港記者齊勇明採訪的時候，就江澤民死亡的謠言在中國飛速流行的問題發表了評論。丁學良在採訪中有關謠言的説法，顯然是遵循學術界的共識。
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丁學良表示，中國政府在領導人健康問題上的原則就是能不説的就不説，能少説的就少説；大部分情況下是事先安排好了再説。他認為，也就是因為這種做法“才給外界製造了這麼多的好奇心和‘探索’的空間。”
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, `5 q* N1 X. {! S) Q
換句話説，資訊的缺乏為人們發揮想像力、創造力提供了空間。公仔箱論壇) ]$ n  P: }$ |- k

説到這裡，應當順便指出，在想像力、創造力方面，中國人一點也不比外國人、外國記者差。就在外國記者妙筆生花地描述過去幾天的中國、由謠言解説中國政治的時候，中國國內已經有人寫出玄幻作品，將細膩的政治分析和奇妙的文學想像融為一爐，令人不禁拍案叫絕，開懷大笑：

“剛才經超級傳送陣離開風雲大陸，去雷鳴大陸查探了一番。5.39.217.765 I2 W0 O) G- {& t
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“報導有二：
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“一是：亞視獨家爆料姜大乘渡劫失敗…… tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb6 |4 [$ L+ ?& m7 }+ K, f' y8 _
“二是：未獲人族天淵城確認。 2 B( t9 r* d, B* `# j/ h* S$ S

“異族的説法是，姜大乘dying or had died（正在死去或已經死了）…… 2 n& d- [( {' Y" h% ^4 o0 O' ^
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“另有消息證實，亞視掌門人係姜大乘後世子孫（非嫡系）。分析可能是不滿聖皇秘而不宣的做法，所以，兵行險著，獨家爆料。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb% w& c( A* H# ^- k) m4 z! \9 G/ p
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“姜大乘隕落，首先對靈石，古票會有直接影響。當年鄧大乘隕落之時，古市全面跌停，前車之鑒，不可不早做打算。這是影響一。公仔箱論壇2 J+ g1 h' `$ D2 u' Q

“影響二：靈界人族高層將全面重新洗牌，估計合體以上修士會隕落一批，隱退一大批，出走一批……同時，各項佈置勢必全面重新調整。以目前的形勢看，聖皇將會完全掌權，掃除對他一切威脅。
....
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“溫長老為前前趙聖皇親傳弟子，有消息稱，此人一直力主對人族進行大改變，故多受排擠……而下層修士也多有不滿……傳言其夫（婦）其子撈靈石過多……如今姜大乘隕落，他會做何打算？他與聖皇自八三年相識，至今共事將近三十萬年，兩人關係究竟如何？鬧矛盾是真，還是演戲給姜大乘看？……隨著姜大乘的隕落，謎底將會很快揭開。”
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熟悉當今中國社會和政治的人不難順暢理解並欣賞這些文字。即使是不太熟悉，只要把有限的幾個關鍵詞翻譯出來之後，也可以理解並欣賞。例如，異族=外國人；姜大乘=江澤民；聖皇=胡錦濤；靈石=錢財；鄧大乘=鄧小平；古票=股票；靈界人族=中共領導層；溫長老=溫家寶；前前趙聖皇=趙紫陽。公仔箱論壇; K; Z: c. t. A
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*謠言.宣傳.政治*5.39.217.764 ]% O, K8 C& y* e' c' a5 B4 |+ {+ h
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就跟研究生命科學的研究者至今對生命沒有確切定義一樣，研究謠言的研究者對謠言至今也沒有確切的定義。英文版的維基百科對謠言的難以定義有一個相當簡明扼要的介紹。儘管如此，謠言研究依然是社會科學的一門顯學。

與此同時，也有許多學者認為，謠言是屬於宣傳的一部分，是為了影響公眾輿論而編造並強行推行的謊言。中國經濟學者茅于軾認為，中國就存在這種政治環境，而這種政治環境對百姓和政府都構成嚴重損害：9 F1 X# |7 V( `) a# i
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“百姓訴諸正義的道路非常艱難，成功的機會非常微小。社會陷入正義無望、邪惡當道的黑暗之中。於是民怨疊起，百姓也不再信任政府。每當官民發生矛盾時，民眾不分是非，一概認為政府是錯的。政府為了自己的利益不得不説假話，就要反對説真話的人。説真話的人就得冒風險。社會的秩序靠假話來維持。假作真時真亦假，假話説慣了，忽然政府改説真話了，百姓也不信，搞得政府百口難辨。”
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*謠言可能更真實*

謠言在一般情況下是虛假不實的。但中國不是一般國家，因此，中國官方所説的謠言，有可能比官方所説的真話更真實。洛杉磯時報7月8日發表記者大衛.皮爾森的報導，就表達了這種意思：tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb' X1 P1 O+ ]$ h. Q! X

“美聯社報導説，（在資訊錯綜混亂的情況下，）香港、日本和南韓的一些新聞媒體未經（中國）官方證實就在星期三報出了江澤民去世的消息。
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“儘管一家媒體（即香港的一家電視臺）後來撤回了自己的報導，並做出了道歉，但專家們表示，那些新聞機構可能依然是正確的。. B* m3 C# ]: w* p; y
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“中國領導層有隱瞞流行病和醜聞消息的先例。他們要花好多天才能達成共識，提出應對説法。去年中國人權活動家劉曉波獲得諾貝爾和平獎的時候，就出現了這種情況。”（齊之豐）
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記者附記：上文所引的題為“關於姜大乘隕落的訊息及分析，以及靈界人族各大真靈世家恩怨”的政治玄幻小説在中國時間7月8日午夜時分還百度貼吧，但到9日淩晨兩點時已經被刪除。顯然，即使使用玄幻小説的方式談論政治在當今中國也不被准許。; \& t3 f2 c9 i2 E9 N

作為新聞事件的一部分，美國之音將該玄幻小説原文轉貼如下：5.39.217.76; ?7 [# C; p* a9 ?
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剛才經超級傳送陣離開風雲大陸，去雷鳴大陸查探了一番。

報導有二：
一是：亞視獨家爆料姜大乘渡劫失敗…… tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb" \+ i  K5 z: s8 e/ N
二是：未獲人族天淵城確認。

異族的説法是，姜大乘dying or had died……
另有消息證實，亞視掌門人係姜大乘後世子孫（非嫡系）。分析可能是不滿聖皇秘而不宣的做法，所以，兵行險著，獨家爆料公仔箱論壇$ N: d+ O  V: c- |
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姜大乘隕落，首先對靈石，古票會有直接影響。當年鄧大乘隕落之時，古市全面跌停，前車之鑒，不可不早做打算。這是影響一。

影響二：靈界人族高層將全面重新洗牌，估計合體以上修士會隕落一批，隱退一大批，出走一批……同時，各項佈置勢必全面重新調整。以目前的形勢看，聖皇將會完全掌權，掃除對他一切威脅
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要説各大合體修士，就先説真靈世家了。這些真靈世家都是富可敵國，只手遮天的大家族。有雷鳴大陸的資料統計，真靈世家弟子在天淵城的近兩百名長老中佔據著三分之二左右的名額。但當今聖皇並非出自真靈世家……

姜大乘在的時候，作為威懾聖皇的超級存在，統領三皇。實際上是聖皇之上的聖皇。如今姜大乘隕落，再無凝聚之力。而聖皇挾譚部諸位合體與長老，自成一體，其勢無人能擋……真靈世家，看似很強，但都自成體系，難為一體……李家雖大，傳承至上古，卻不強。葉家雖弱，依然能撐住《南方週末》，隨口點評半個人族，名聲看似不顯，實則聲望依然很高……而其他的薄家，宋家，萬家，喬家，陳家……等各大家族勢力都不弱 TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。$ j; d8 U+ p8 A& T) U3 o" C
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而且這數十個家族之間，又各有子女聯姻，或有上代情仇恩怨，關係錯綜複雜，有時候，不顯山不露水，依然能指點江山，掌人族眾多修士之前途命運，甚至生死……比如陳家。 9 |. u+ q. B0 k
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真靈世家中，最大的李家與聖皇以前聯手過，但相互矛盾也很深。而且人族有三大李家，雖然都姓李，卻不是同一真靈世家，不僅如此，甚至還是對頭……薄家也與聖皇多有不和……習家與聖皇很不好説，既無仇，也無怨，但習家與姜大乘關係過密，恐為聖皇不喜。姜大乘隕落，影響最大的恐怕就是習合體，薄合體了。當然，更直接的，現任最高長老團的賀長老，周長老。這兩位長老是姜大乘的親戚

先分析習合體： 5.39.217.76& _3 X- L8 l5 |1 Y
來自真靈世家，習家。豪門顯爵，無論是姜大乘的關係，還是與當今聖皇的關係，都不算差。是一個中間派，為姜大乘所喜，當初七十七名合體以上修士投票選的時候，以兩票之差，擊敗對手李合體。後傳此人，不願當聖皇。曾數度上書力辭……與當今聖皇的關係也不差，但並非聖皇嫡系，聖皇上位後，多依賴譚部舊將。而這些舊將又與李合體為首……如今姜大乘隕落，聖皇會做什麼選擇與安排，實難預料……

當初習合體定位，就是合體後期以上修士，多半為聖島修士投票的結果，一共七十七人，習合體以兩票優勢擊敗李合體……時過境遷，聖島修士已不復當年，聖島內部矛盾重重，再加上姜大乘隕落……其勢不在……如今，關健還要看聖皇的安排以及習合體的修為進度了
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另一面：溫長老為前前趙聖皇親傳弟子，有消息稱，此人一直力主對人族進行大改變，故多受排擠……而下層修士也多有不滿……傳言其夫其子撈靈石過多……如今姜大乘隕落，他會做何打算？他與聖皇自八三年相識，至今共事將近三十萬年，兩人關係究竟如何？鬧矛盾是真，還是演戲給姜大乘看？……隨著姜大乘的隕落，謎底將會很快揭開
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其實，我現在最關心的是這個目前看似不重要的溫長老……他的動向，隨著姜大乘的隕落，將向對人族産生深遠的影響……也可以看看，紫聖皇和耀聖皇眼光究竟如何？他們的親傳弟子，在這個局面，能否有一番作為？還是真的忙著撈靈石呢？ 5.39.217.76) i, r+ m3 r6 u9 H6 j( G* w; J
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。8 Y' A: r* ~! E* {9 l, a6 ?. o" M
現在做一番推算，將幾個有可能假設都一一例出來，自然不難分析出未來走勢
假設一：聖皇和溫長老的矛盾是在演戲，那麼，姜大乘隕落了，戲就該演完了……如果這個假設成立，如此演戲有兩種可能， TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。- d4 W& ^$ {! y8 B/ `9 P

第一：一個為了個人的安危，讓姜大乘放心。以求保命。靜等姜大乘隕落，獨掌大權，為所欲為。 tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb" u) a, U! @4 M0 [$ y
第二：想對人族進行全面改革，但形勢不允許，只能裝出有矛盾。上可使大乘放心，下可讓低階修士看到些許希望。那麼，如今姜大乘隕落，而全面改革將很快開始（當然，先要將一幹阻礙的合體修士幹掉，但難度不大）。。各位道友，是否還記得去年的不了了之的收入分配改革嗎？我想，如果聖皇當真有心改革，則收入分配只是小改，還有更大的動作在後面…… tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb$ _/ Z7 c2 C" C6 b- `' [

假設二：聖皇與溫長老確實有矛盾。那麼，姜大乘隕落，聖皇急需將姜大乘的寶物收歸已有，將人馬或收歸門下，或一一分化擊破。他也需要溫長老的合作，就看他們達成什麼樣的交易條件了…… tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb0 J1 }: b6 Y( G+ v. t2 C
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關於溫長老主宰凡間多年，到底是好是壞，謎底也就隨之揭曉……無論如何，在眼下這個情況，他的份量都會變重很多……失去姜大乘的真靈世家要改換門庭。要進行重置的聖皇需要助手幫忙……如果，在這樣的一個情況下，溫長老依然沒有任何表現，那就是一個徹底的演技派，也證明當的紫道長和耀道長，看錯人了……所以，溫長老的表現將對低階修士産生很大影響……因為，在這之前，我們可能假定他是無能為力。但自此之後，這個假定失去存在的條件……
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來源 / 版權所有：  以上所述媒体 / 美國之音
(以上内容摘自或摘译自其它媒体 / 美國之音，不代表發帖者观点)2 x, z( Q6 C2 P  E" f8 ?

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註：上文引述相關媒體，摘文轉貼樓下

作者: aa00 時間: 2011-7-9 10:24 AM

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China says rumors of former President Jiang Zemin's death are falseBeijing finally releases a statement after unsuccessful attempts to quell intense speculation on the Internet.

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By David Pierson, Los Angeles Times July 8, 2011

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Reporting from Beijing—
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After a week filled with rumor and intrigue, the official New China News Agency had the following message Thursday to relay to the world: Former President Jiang Zemin is not dead.
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Rumors started swirling July 1 when the ailing 84-year-old was conspicuously absent from a ceremony at Beijing's Great Hall of the People commemorating the Communist Party's 90th anniversary.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb; r% n, ], [5 s; }3 `, c7 o

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Amid China's economic transformation, many farmers struggle

China's Communists mull the party's future

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WTO rules against China on limiting export of raw materials

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That set off online speculation, highlighting the growing power of the Internet in China and the party's flat-footedness. Rumors began spreading that Jiang, who rarely missed major public appearances, was either too ill to attend or had died.
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Within days, thousands of posts had popped up on Chinese microblogging sites, known as weibo, contemplating what had happened to the man who led China out of the political chaos after the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown and into an era of explosive economic development.

"Do you think tonight's game will be delayed?" asked someone on the Sina weibo, China's most popular microblogging service, about an Argentina-Colombia soccer match.

Jiang may not have attained a cult of personality like Mao Tse-tung or Deng Xiaoping, but his owlish glasses and his habits of breaking into impromptu song and snoozing during party conclaves nonetheless became legend.
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In an apparent effort to control the narrative, Internet censors blocked Jiang's surname, which means "river." Suddenly all searches for "Pearl River" and "Yangtze River" came up empty.

They didn't stop there. Famous quotes by Jiang were gone. The military hospital in the capital where he was rumored to be treated was unsearchable. So was Song Zuying, Jiang's legendary mistress (also a songstress).tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb' m9 I8 j( W/ p  F# [7 J
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Anyone trying to look up "myocardial infarction," the medical term for a heart attack, would have also been met with a standard error message: "According to the relevant laws, regulations and policies, the results of this search cannot be displayed."3 Y' Y/ [  o( q0 V& {. v

The response was not surprising. The health of party leaders is guarded as a state secret. But the censorship only heightened suspicion that Jiang was not well.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb* `4 u4 _$ f9 r- e

Anyone wanting to discuss the former leader's health online had to be inventive and use obscure terms like "late emperor" to refer to him and "Ba Bao Shan," a famous cemetery in Beijing, to suggest he was dead.公仔箱論壇' L5 |2 S. g& H

There have been previous rumors of Jiang's death. But this round was far more intense because of the breathtaking pace of communication among China's 457 million Internet users, said Xiao Qiang, an expert on digital media in China at UC Berkeley.

"The creativity behind these search terms demonstrates how much resistance and push-back there is to censorship," Xiao said. "This kind of resistance has been growing the past two years."

By Wednesday, an announcement of Jiang's passing seemed imminent. Those fortunate enough to navigate the Internet with circumvention software to access banned sites like Twitter would have found a deluge of thinly sourced posts suggesting Jiang had indeed died.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。3 X6 z( Q$ L+ ]  k7 f

State television evening news was a logical place to expect an official answer. But the newscaster Wednesday night didn't have to say a word. He was wearing a jovial yellow tie. There would be no death announcement.公仔箱論壇/ t# ~+ A4 S1 V# ]' W
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Even without official confirmation, news media in Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea reported Wednesday that Jiang had died, according to the Associated Press.
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Though one of the outlets, a Hong Kong television station, later retracted its report and apologized, experts say the news organizations could still be correct.
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China's leadership has a precedent for withholding news about developments such as epidemics and scandals. Finding consensus and crafting a response can take days. That was the case when Chinese human rights activist Liu Xiaobo was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last year.
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"The Chinese Communist Party's obsession with controlling the flow of information and putting a carefully thought-out spin on events can make it slower to respond to news than other organizations, which in turn helps create a vacuum in which rumors can gather momentum," said Jeffrey Wasserstrom, chairman of the history department at UC Irvine and author of "China in the 21st Century: What Everyone Needs to Know."TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。* K4 M! C- Y  X0 N

Finally, after six days of intense speculation, China's state media arm released a brief bulletin on the news wires Thursday afternoon.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb1 @6 a* w3 R3 y' G+ @6 n
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It read: "Recent reports of some overseas media organizations about Jiang Zemin's death from illness are 'pure rumor,' said authoritative sources Thursday."
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A regularly scheduled Foreign Ministry news conference later in the day provided no additional information.

"Fascinating incident," Wasserstrom said. "Well, nonevent."
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作者: aa00 時間: 2011-7-9 11:24 AM

2011年 7月 08日江澤民生死之謎折射中國制度建設缺憾
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記者: 齊勇明 | 香港 5.39.217.76: T( U2 Z& q4 V+ v

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圖片來源: AP 5.39.217.76( h5 q" p1 s# f: q
一位婦女走過江澤民畫像.當局否認江已經去世.6 P, d$ q5 [. j

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丁學良表示，中國政府在領導人健康問題上的原則就是能不説的就不説，能少説的就少説。大部分情況下是事先已經安排好了再説。他認為，也就是因為這種做法“才給外界製造了這麼多的好奇心和‘探索’的空間。”TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。* Z: e) @) o# i& I- e8 v
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中國前國家主席江澤民據傳去世的風波經中國官媒新華社辟謠後已趨於平靜。但當人們對一名離任多年的年邁前領導人給予如此高度關注時，問題就不一樣了。多位專家學者就此發表了看法。
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幾家中外媒體誤報了江澤民病逝的消息，既反映了中國政府運作的不透明導致媒體猜測，也反映出人們對中國政治前景的關切。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb1 s3 v7 N$ R* x
*學者：領導人健康狀況應該公開*

香港科技大學教授丁學良對美國之音説，中國政府的資訊太不透明，領導人的健康也成為國家機密。他説歐洲國家早在20世紀中期，就將在任離任的最高領導人的健康做為必須向公眾公開的資訊。5.39.217.766 |* W: n/ j1 r7 ^$ ^0 T5 ~

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他説：“當然他退休這麼多年了，但他畢竟做過13年的最高領導人，他的健康狀況應該成為公眾了解的、政府也有責任向公民、向全世界公開披露的消息。”TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。3 N5 o" ~0 I9 D

丁學良説，就是因為中國沒有這個制度，外界才只能靠猜測。

他説，中國前領導人鄧小平去世前，香港就有至少4次猜錯。他説其中一次是某媒體得到鄧小平身邊人士的消息説，不行啦。媒體幾個小時後就報了死訊，但是那次鄧小平沒死。他説，這和中國的特別制度也是有關的。
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*中國最高領導人的醫療條件世界第一*tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb0 D% C# O; {& A

丁學良：“最高領導人在中國享受的醫療條件是世界上最好的，其他國家的領導人無法和中國領導人相比。中國領導人享受著全世界最頂級的待遇，就算是在美國這樣發達的國家救不活的，在中國都有可能被救活。”$ c- x1 P, s$ j* V3 f8 ~$ u+ }4 l
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香港明報署名評論説， 84歲的高齡的江澤民健康出些問題，一點也不奇怪，“問題是一個卸任已經6年多的前領導人的生老病死，還能引起民間如此廣泛的興趣，在世界各國實屬罕見。”$ r( N+ `5 O# y7 W
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美國之音中國北京理工大學教授胡星斗
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中國北京理工大學教授胡星斗對美國之音説，人們對這一消息的關注主要反映了在一個非法治國家裏，民間關注江澤民存亡的主要原因是擔心這個事件可能會影響到中國未來政治格局。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。! e7 E3 U% O; V# D# c7 F
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胡星斗説：“儘管他是一個退位的領導人，但是在中國，畢竟現在還不是一個真正意義上的法治國家。權力不一定和法律確定的職務有關，有的人可能沒有職務，但是具有權力。”& e3 h- C- \2 E& B2 X

*胡星斗：權力和法定職務不掛鉤*5.39.217.76/ G$ K) n+ J% h5 V: P' [
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胡星斗説：“這可以説是非法治國家的一個特點吧。在這種情況下，一個領導人即使退位的領導人，他也有可能對未來的發展走向産生重大影響。民眾對此事的關注也可以説是對國家前途或者説對自己命運的關注吧。”' I( P( O6 m: l

香港英文報紙南華早報引述評論人士的話説，如果江澤民死在中共決定下一屆最高領導人的18大之前，他的死就會增加最高權力交接的不穩定性。
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美國之音張楠北京學者章立凡
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該報援引歷史學者章立凡的話説，江澤民之死將會改變中國的政治平衡。當江澤民把權力交給胡錦濤時，他在胡周圍安插了很多自己的親信，以此來限制胡錦濤的影響力。他説：“如果他現在去世，我認為不是一件好事。如果有不同的陣營，這些陣營之間可以相互制約，起到平衡的作用。否則的話，一方強勢，主導力就會過強。”
*作家：中國制度性建設不夠穩固*

北京的獨立作家、評論家戴晴對美國之音表示：“各方關注就是因為中共高層各派政治勢力都在安排自己的人馬，這就意味著將來的領導人是誰。也就是誰上臺，今後的各種政治氣氛、出臺的政策等，都會有很大的變動。”TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 `$ I/ u- K2 Y% j4 ~; d8 i
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美國之音獨立作家、評論家戴晴& W) E4 `; U$ G" ?- [! @: h8 n
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戴晴説，這是制度上的問題。她舉例説，“美國的兩黨制、歐洲的總統制或議會制，不論哪個領導人出現生死或健康狀況，它整個政治局面還會是穩定的。而在中國，不同的最高領導人，就會有完全不同的政治形勢”。她説如果江澤民在18大之前去世，就會使局面出現很大的變動。5 s$ U) l$ y2 b8 k' l

戴晴説：“中國這種政治體系太在乎個人，制度性的建設不夠穩固，於是他們的生死就這樣被人關注。”

*公佈資訊是法治區別與人治的一個標誌*

對此，丁學良教授的分析是：“江澤民在位時，有很多事情都是他親自拍的板。當時就有爭議，在他退休以後有些政策的爭議就更大了。當然他的健康狀況如何對這些政治的做法能不能延續下去、在多大程度上會受到修改、有什麼大的人事安排，都有很重要的含意。”9 p. b( H. G7 a3 T6 w
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丁學良説：“(因此中共)公開這些事情不僅僅是公開個人健康的問題，在目前的制度和體制之下，最高權力在多大程度上是法制的權力，在多大的程度上是人治的權力。這個問題不解決，中共最高領導人，包括現任的和退休的領導人，他們的健康狀況就不會對外公佈。”1 K  \  M2 [6 l0 E  |
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丁學良表示，中國政府在領導人健康問題上的原則就是能不説的就不説，能少説的就少説。大部分情況下是事先已經安排好了再説。他認為，也就是因為這種做法“才給外界製造了這麼多的好奇心和‘探索’的空間。”/ S- K$ w# W% N. I- C& A1 ^/ r

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