* i* _2 n; ?7 Z8 p: B8 W0 [TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。毛澤東在晚年時曾表示,他這一生幹了兩件事,一件是趕走蔣介石和日本人,另一件就是發動文化大革命。他表示對文革“擁護的人不多,反對的人不少”,十分擔心身後對文革的評價。他去世前為文革定下“七三開”的調子,也就是七分肯定,三分否定。具有諷刺意義的是,曾經在毛在世時承諾對文革“永不翻案”的鄧小平,最終還是在掌握中共大權之後徹底否定了文化大革命。) L2 q, w3 {/ d |2 r
公仔箱論壇( H( e' B" ^ Z2 E8 E4 m
不過,儘管中共早在1981年就正式否定文化大革命,但實際上多年來一直對有關文革的研究和討論採取壓制的態度,使得大量有關文革的歷史資料被隱瞞或者流失。有關文革的集體記憶,也隨著經歷文革的人逐漸逝去而淡化了。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。/ V6 W. i# p6 Q: u/ W. s
% J* z7 N% p8 C$ [5 u公仔箱論壇*中共黨史:毛澤東好心辦壞事*tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb7 k) K. T; ^0 z. g1 m+ w
公仔箱論壇* L) T: E0 K. o$ V. c* ~: q
“中國共産黨歷史”第二卷重申,文革是“一場由領導者錯誤發動,被反革命集團利用,給黨、國家和各族人民帶來嚴重災難的內亂”,但是仍認為毛澤東的錯誤在於錯誤估計國際國內形勢,也就是所謂的“好心辦壞事”。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。/ ^; p# a" i* n6 g7 V/ b
0 T- Z" u3 w B dThere is little question that the Chinese Communist Party has come a long way since it was founded 90 years ago by 12 delegates representing roughly 50 members. @/ q( U* ^% u7 S$ Utvb now,tvbnow,bttvb ! I0 b4 Q ]- `1 ]: LTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 ! p8 n9 O( ~" }4 Y公仔箱論壇Yet however insignificant it may have seemed back then, there was no question about its ideology, identity and mission. Inspired by utopian Marxism, the party represented China’s idealist leftists, nationalists and the downtrodden. Its mission was to end social injustice and Western colonialism. * u$ x; u! S: S3 ^% I
公仔箱論壇, t( w, p( n% F+ e& V
$ _+ b; R7 o# f" j- D5.39.217.76Today the party is a political behemoth, with 80 million members and control of the world’s second-largest economy. At home its grip on power faces no organized challenge; abroad its leaders are accorded a respect Mao and Zhou Enlai could not have dreamed of. TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。* c0 S2 c% S( m( i4 C8 B
) i5 o# C# W v- E C* D公仔箱論壇 8 v# R% H; N, m) {5 ]1 g0 @Indeed, we should give the party its due for having abandoned the Maoist madness of its first three decades in power — the mass terror, famine, brutal political campaigns and vicious power struggles — and for radically improving the material lives of China’s 1.3 billion people. . [- z$ c( e% G7 A6 J- G% N1 e
公仔箱論壇6 N b- X( a6 B: f* `4 Y1 a7 ?
+ ?5 z8 f# J' d3 e公仔箱論壇Yet if asked, “What does the Communist Party stand for,” few Chinese leaders today could give a coherent or honest answer. 5.39.217.769 U6 x2 _& z7 T) |: h4 y2 E/ ^/ U
1 n4 `( T% g# ]2 M% E公仔箱論壇 # b/ N, m6 v; _! M/ D. Jtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThis much we know: It no longer stands for a utopian ideology. If there is one ideology that the party represents, it is the ideology of power. The sole justification for the party’s rule is the imperative to stay in power. ) L# ?1 m0 H% O& g7 ETVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 ! }7 U: B' n% p% p8 |% d- v% |公仔箱論壇TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。4 n- X' p/ O( y/ s$ x
Nor does the party stand for China’s masses. Despite efforts to broaden its social base and make it more connected with China’s dynamic and diverse society, the party today has evolved into a self-serving, bureaucratized political patronage machine. It is undeniably an elitist party, with more than 70 percent of its members recruited from government officials, the military, college graduates, businessmen and professionals. " X( T; X0 P" Q9 t$ O 7 }3 c( u" M: A5.39.217.76 1 @1 ^9 y8 c7 o2 e/ b/ ESo for all its apparent power, the party is in fact facing an existential crisis and an uncertain future. Apart from staying in power, it has no public purpose. The crisis is not only ideological, but also political; it explains much of the cynicism, corruption and insecurity of the party and its elites. ; _8 v7 W' X0 z$ n. I公仔箱論壇 * j$ f% {8 q. H0 W% T5.39.217.76 " l9 F3 j1 Q. Z# O1 C* s8 {9 K* Rtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbAs the party has firmly rejected democratization, its only strategy for survival is to maintain the course it has embarked on since the Tiananmen crackdown in June 1989: drawing political legitimacy from economic growth but relying on repression to crush challenges to its monopoly of power. Although this strategy has worked well since Tiananmen, its effectiveness and sustainability are increasingly in doubt. 5.39.217.764 m% I! C( C1 h9 s, ~7 X
5.39.217.76: j' V# M, ] @; d4 o
5 l. d4 ^- Z; g" p a5.39.217.76On the economic front, growth is about to slow down. Demographic aging, resource constraints, stalled economic reforms and environmental degradation are almost certain to depress China’s growth potential. An optimistic World Bank forecast predicts a growth rate from 2016-2020 of about 7 percent annually — a respectable number, but a 30 percent drop from today’s rate. 5.39.217.76# {8 k8 V6 A: U! {! B( m
+ u/ P! N. A' d
0 S& h- x/ Q S% N, x+ u公仔箱論壇China’s economic revolution is also unleashing powerful social forces that will make maintaining a one-party state more tenuous. The party’s governing philosophy and organizational structure make it difficult to incorporate China’s growing middle-class politically. The convergence of an economic slowdown and rising political activism will challenge the party’s rule from several directions. # v' ^4 F7 D* V2 X( Ktvb now,tvbnow,bttvb3 v' t5 x; c6 C% u4 }) ~$ A
8 |& u) r' y* Q+ ?; s
Now that the Chinese Communist Party has been in power for 62 years, its leaders might also want to note that the record for one-party rule is 74 years, held by the Soviet party, followed by the 71-year rein of Mexico’s Institutional Revolutionary Party. : t: y. \& d( S 4 A) l, e H) c3 i5 Ntvb now,tvbnow,bttvb D; A! E2 v$ O ?) _* R8 x
So when Chinese leaders toast their party’s 90th birthday, they should harbor no illusions that the party can beat history’s odds forever. 3 @, R5 _% ?' W( a1 X! P; G* r" ^4 s
% B: U7 U4 m' ~/ @ % m8 \* y# L ~; I公仔箱論壇Minxin Pei is a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College in California. 4 @+ |, Y6 W) S# ~8 A
I.H.T. Op-Ed Contributor 5 R% u7 U2 g7 Z# d/ x 5 h& x9 i. G& X& L% f9 a5.39.217.76tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb- y/ H! M" V) r6 [! j% y8 T China's Communist Party at 90 5 P4 o. y5 | v3 t, x. L6 A % i p* D0 d( GTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。4 |# x& l i8 A( `* `! @
By DAVID SHAMBAUGHPublished: June 30, 2011 TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。6 I+ |+ a# X/ t6 R7 @9 |
! U- ~! O$ E, l2 _' r- N4 j8 C
5 U$ h7 k7 N8 G: }1 \" Qtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbBEIJING — Nationwide ceremonies and a deluge of media coverage have been mobilized by China’s ruling Communist Party to mark its 90th anniversary today. But all the hoopla cannot conceal the party’s insecure state. / @* @. l3 i/ E, w8 G" y4 \$ U' ~
3 O. v" O& Q$ RTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 ' f2 v/ C, ~- A! NTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。公仔箱論壇$ O" n! Q C; |: u1 c- d+ c
公仔箱論壇. z2 F2 X" z# y/ _
Central China Television (CCTV) has been airing long narrative documentaries about the party’s history; bookstores are full of red-covered histories; museums have mounted special exhibitions — including the new National Museum’s “Road to Rejuvenation.” And the buildup will be capped by a nationwide address by the party’s general secretary, President Hu Jintao. 3 C. d6 B1 w$ Y! \ / b- N3 n6 h) Q8 x+ E0 m7 DTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。公仔箱論壇# |2 B% X# J8 w u1 d( H9 X+ e
The main theme in all these celebrations has been that the party has provided China prosperity and dignity following a “century of shame and humiliation.” The narrative of past aggression and aggrievement is pervasive, as is the affirmation that the party has rebuilt Chinese society and restored China’s rightful place in the world. 公仔箱論壇* A& a3 K6 f& |. R: r' W h0 W8 z3 \
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5 t. l1 t* A+ D4 L7 n$ b
$ j" T$ i9 h6 ^6 `
Accompanying the festivities is an unprecedented official look into the party’s past. After 16 years of preparation, the Central Party History Research Office has produced a 1,000-plus-page compendium of the party’s history from 1949 to 1978 (post-1978 apparently remains too politically sensitive because many of the officials involved are still in power). , I: K4 ~# d+ G) \8 P3 i 5 c) k" c9 M. Q. P" Y/ J5 Q% _% y/ N; r ]& o. F; W8 l
While the tome provides many new details of sensitive events during the Mao era, it is still highly selective and largely in step with the master narrative laid down in the 1982 publication: “Certain Questions in Our Party’s History.” # K5 N; F6 b' Z# }6 N: Itvb now,tvbnow,bttvb& m; O; k3 H6 n2 t5 H7 T5 ^
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb/ n$ e+ ^2 }$ w$ g, g
Nowhere mentioned is the violence of political campaigns during the 1950s that cost the lives of tens of millions (some of the campaigns are discussed, but not the persecutions and killings). The 1956 Hundred Flowers Movement, in which intellectuals launched broadside critiques of party rule (many which remain apt today), is totally absent. Only the subsequent “Anti-Rightist” purge is covered (in a sanitized fashion) — but not Deng Xiaoping’s role in directing it. & D6 W$ q/ F! D$ |) h9 _公仔箱論壇 + L1 W7 y0 z2 `& Z* p* @, c. [9 m* K+ M5 D2 ]
The Great Leap Forward, which produced the “three bitter years” (1960-62) and claimed the lives of up to 45 million, according to new archival research by the historian Frank Dikotter, and the Cultural Revolution (1966-76) receive substantial treatment. But both catastrophes are essentially attributed to the usurping of party rule by “leftist opportunists” like Lin Biao, Jiang Qing and the Gang of Four. ( V4 v' a2 w/ Q7 O- {+ b. J 7 |& }. M; ^& F& F4 a公仔箱論壇 / L( \8 `% U9 Y0 s( k, NMao himself does come in for criticism, but overall the blame is shifted to others. Mao’s successor Hua Guofeng does benefit from a posthumous “rehabilitation,” but no such luck for the disgraced Zhao Ziyang. tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb. t0 Z8 d- h0 [
+ ^; F0 h* q( d. ]8 o s6 F " \0 n; i! }- v+ w/ Gtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThe official treatment of these events is clear: maintain a strong institutional apparatus and remain vigilant against inner-party usurpers and foreign saboteurs. Thus, even in the midst of an anniversary celebration, the party’s continuing inability to honestly and fully confront its past speaks volumes about its present and future. It is symptomatic of existing insecurities. & @, C, E' m d8 _9 b; b
: p1 j4 _+ [. l" wTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。公仔箱論壇! M; e- q1 n1 ~0 S: B0 o$ M5 o. n
Since the autumn of 2009, following the Fourth Plenary Session of the 17th Central Committee, China and the world have witnessed a more repressive and insecure Communist Party, including a slowing of some political reforms undertaken from 1997-2009. TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, |8 K& u$ O8 c9 N0 C) {
) E( g7 _0 A) B8 ?1 @
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。8 k" k- I+ K4 I% k6 R) P
Despite the political stagnation, three sets of reforms have continued: expanding multi-candidate elections to local level party committees; increased transparency in local budgeting and resource allocation; and efforts to improve meritocracy at all levels of the party and government. But efforts to make central policy making more transparent, to prosecute pervasive corruption, to improve “intra-party democracy” and “extra-party supervision,” and to open up the media have all stagnated. 5 |, F$ Q4 ^. O1 F/ O & J3 ?7 U5 t2 Y' qtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 6 a, s D' ]7 p; k7 p, ?0 d+ p* rTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。These reforms all grew out of the party’s study of the collapse of the Soviet Union and other one-party regimes. The main lesson the Chinese Communist Party drew from these foreign examples was to be proactive, flexible and adaptive, and to manage political change from above. Stasis and dogmatism were seen as recipes for stagnation and collapse. + O, D! E. X/ W' B1 o $ r N8 G' B9 k% c- a4 O5.39.217.767 ~ l9 q5 g- n% F, D
What we are witnessing as the party turns 90, however, is the opposite. Instead of being secure and confident, it is seemingly frozen in fear of the future, unsure about its grip over ethnic regions (Tibet, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia), afraid of rising social unrest and ad hoc demonstrations, worried about the macro-economy and foreign relations, and on the cusp of a major leadership transition in 2012. tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb/ }* J6 s; _5 b( K' k" ?- I
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。) d L- I! E& Y' U
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb7 l6 f3 D% n/ {+ C
Moreover, a coalition of internal security forces, giant state-owned corporations, the propaganda apparatus, and the military have joined with hard-line elements in the party to pull back from reforms. 9 }) L9 ? p4 L7 l- S% O/ I
5.39.217.76. f |- z' t8 M( T5 T
7 u* y. b# N$ i+ _! C
Yet there is a reformist wing in the party, led by Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, which advocates more open politics. But it does not have the resources or allies to re-ignite political reforms. The intra-party cleavage runs high and deep and party members here indicate viewpoints and factions are becoming increasingly polarized. The pending leadership transition only adds to the risk aversion and crackdown. - N5 x1 p' i% A. _" iTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 9 Z8 R* x9 W6 _公仔箱論壇 - z7 O2 X/ n8 U2 Q& i3 M: JTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。China’s Communist Party at 90 is a bit like many 90-year-olds: increasingly infirm, fearful, experimenting with ways to prolong life, but overwhelmed by the complexities of managing it. ; E7 P! Y& g3 j1 _$ @8 g4 a
. \" l+ H' U& k
! Y9 a( a9 U) ~5 K1 K David Shambaugh is professor and director of the China Policy Program at George Washington University and the author of “China’s Communist Party: Atrophy & Adaptation.” * u& `- B" Y1 u H O5 P5.39.217.76tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5 p5 i+ W5 W. p% F
; |$ r" u1 |8 G5 X- v5 m) O' ?TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 [ o @4 |0 H# x公仔箱論壇3 m/ p* P- J+ y( L
l4 y) x- j1 V. ^% r+ \* G公仔箱論壇Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb3 T% I3 g- o6 `, g' L' B 公仔箱論壇* i5 \' ~7 z$ O* g; Q0 F& u
& e/ {8 K" X$ z n