+ R; Y8 G/ Y7 Z3 C/ \5.39.217.76埃及沒有因冷戰結束而失去利用價值，在海灣戰爭、打擊伊朗、維持以色列的安全、促成以巴和談等議題，美國需要埃及在阿拉伯世界的影響力，即使穆巴拉克政府腐敗、打壓異己、選舉舞弊，美國繼續維持對埃及的援助，造成加沙的人道危機不獨是以色列，埃及也難辭其咎，因為埃及也以堵截哈馬斯的武器供應為名，與以色列一同封鎖加沙。 * R* @% a. y+ G/ h$ I5.39.217.76 ( t9 L, b4 r% E$ ?( G5 L: a公仔箱論壇伊斯蘭兄弟會一直被埃及政府列為非法組織，埃及的議會選舉充斥造票、脅逼、恫嚇、政治暴力。只要穆巴拉克說一句「民主化，政權便會由伊斯蘭兄弟會把持」，美國擔敢推動埃及改革？穆巴拉克也看準美國的弱點，對國內異見的打壓絕不手軟，不顧美國的強烈反對，以莫須有的罪名監禁曾於○五年參與總統選舉的反對派人士Ayman Nour。; f, {9 V2 o: p B7 {% R
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若你想了解今天埃及社會，請看Al Aswany的小說The Yacoubian Building。若你父母出身低下階層，你根本無法投考公務員，因為這是靠裙帶關係的社會；政治犯被虐待、被強姦；高層官員貪污；年輕人加入伊斯蘭極端組織，不是因為埃及人對宗教特別狂熱，而是對整個社會及制度徹底失望，相信推翻政府是唯一的出路。 % V4 t; N" o$ f( ` 0 m' R" I' }- F O2 H, s; G5.39.217.76自嘲最易統治順民 ; f' L( C9 g- Y+ I) u6 z2 z0 ^% Itvb now,tvbnow,bttvb不少埃及人都自嘲，他們是全世界最容易統治的順民，經過多年的壓逼，埃及人還不是屈服於政府的淫威，逆來順受？沒有人料到，只是十多天的時間，看似牢固的穆巴拉克政權，忽然變得岌岌可危。0 ~* X+ M1 z( E$ d2 V" l5 m& S
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埃及今天正處於民主化的十字路口，反對的民眾未能一鼓作氣把穆巴拉克扯下馬、穆巴拉克也無法以暴力壓下民主運動、美國政府仍然舉棋不定，既不願意與大多數埃及人為敵，但又不想背棄多年的盟友。 + o" U! [* l. X* }+ ~tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb公仔箱論壇7 B1 q$ l# ~4 N
究竟埃及是八九年的東歐、成功把握民主化的機會？是八九年的中國，錯失了民主化，但經濟得到發展？還是○九年的伊朗，既錯失了自由化、經濟繼續一團糟？Allah bless Egypt.作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-2-6 07:15 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-2-6 07:22 AM 編輯 5.39.217.763 Z8 c& B1 N2 e
. f: F, N: f8 \9 i It's not radical Islam that worries the US – it's independence # T8 ?5 A1 t$ e5.39.217.76公仔箱論壇& I a# B8 D' F( v! Y {
By Noam Chomsky Guardian ( g$ S! r* V+ e# y5 H0 R, vtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb0 ]$ y1 m2 x" `2 h
'The Arab world is on fire," al-Jazeera reported last week, while throughout the region, western allies "are quickly losing their influence". The shock wave was set in motion by the dramatic uprising in Tunisia that drove out a western-backed dictator, with reverberations especially in Egypt,where demonstrators overwhelmed a dictator's brutal police. , y' |6 [$ C( PObservers compared it to the toppling of Russian domains in 1989, but there are important differences. Crucially, no Mikhail Gorbachev exists among the great powers that support the Arab dictators. Rather, Washington and its allies keep to the well-established principle that democracy is acceptable only insofar as it conforms to strategic and economic objectives: fine in enemy territory (up to a point), but not in our backyard, please, unless properly tamed. , @8 I2 v9 V `2 I( q5 J7 zTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。One 1989 comparison has some validity: Romania,where Washington maintained its support for Nicolae Ceausescu, the most vicious of the east European dictators,until the allegiance became untenable. Then Washington hailed his overthrow while the past was erased. That is a standard pattern: Ferdinand Marcos, Jean-Claude Duvalier, Chun Doo-hwan, Suharto and many other useful gangsters. It may be under way in the case of Hosni Mubarak,along with routine efforts to try to ensure a successor regime will not veer far from the approved path. The current hope appears to be Mubarak loyalist General Omar Suleiman, just named Egypt's vice-president. Suleiman, the longtime head of the intelligence services, is despised by the rebelling public almost as much as the dictator himself. ; q+ O# d/ n& W7 }/ U/ ctvb now,tvbnow,bttvbA common refrain among pundits is that fear of radical Islam requires(reluctant) opposition to democracy on pragmatic grounds. While not without some merit, the formulation is misleading. The general threat has always been independence.The US and itsallies have regularly supported radical Islamists, sometimes to prevent the threat of secular nationalism.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5 O5 L0 u) l8 s! o
A familiar example is Saudi Arabia,the ideological centre of radical Islam (and of Islamic terror). Another in along list is Zia ul-Haq, the most brutal of Pakistan's dictators and President Reagan's favorite, who carried out a programme of radical Islamisation (with Saudi funding). ) p* @8 Q- d( A"The traditional argument put forward in and out of the Arab world is that there is nothing wrong, everything is under control," says Marwan Muasher, a former Jordanian official and now director of Middle East research for the Carnegie Endowment. "With this line of thinking, entrenched forces argue that opponents and outsiders calling for reform are exaggerating the conditions on the ground." / O9 O5 [+ o& Q8 r! {2 N1 m! jTherefore the public can be dismissed. The doctrine traces far back and generalises worldwide, to US home territory as well. In the event of unrest,tactical shifts may be necessary, but always with an eye to reasserting control. 9 \. i- X5 I% _! n" s9 u# A6 bThe vibrant democracy movement in Tunisia was directed against "a police state, with little freedom of expression or association, and serious human rights problems", ruled by a dictator whose family was hated for their venality. So said US ambassador Robert Godec in a July 2009 cable released by WikiLeaks. ! k4 N; S4 \, O( i' d7 N" f) R5.39.217.76Therefore to some observers the WikiLeaks "documents should create a comforting feeling among the American public that officials aren't asleep at the switch" – indeed, that the cables are so supportive of US policies that it is almost as if Obama is leaking them himself (or so Jacob Heilbrunn writes in The National Interest.) 4 C+ M1 A: Z5 z4 f2 u' C2 m6 y3 W5.39.217.76"America should give Assange a medal," says a headline in the Financial Times,where Gideon Rachman writes: "America's foreign policy comes across as principled, intelligent and pragmatic … the public position taken by the US on any given issue is usually the private position as well."公仔箱論壇! ]% s8 f7 A( u- N7 s# ]7 Y" K
In this view, WikiLeaks undermines "conspiracy theorists" who question the noble motives Washington proclaims.: D- ^, z% m z0 y( p* [
Godec's cable supports these judgments – at least if we look no further. If we do,, as foreign policy analyst Stephen Zunes reports in Foreign Policy in Focus, we find that, with Godec's information in hand, Washington provided $12m in military aid to Tunisia.As it happens, Tunisia was one of only five foreign beneficiaries: Israel(routinely); the two Middle East dictatorships Egypt and Jordan; and Colombia, which has long had the worst human-rights record and the most US military aid in the hemisphere.5.39.217.76$ ^6 a0 B" v6 v# A3 n- \7 _2 @
Heilbrunn's exhibit A is Arab support for US policies targeting Iran,revealed by leaked cables. Rachman too seizes on this example, as did the media generally, hailing these encouraging revelations. The reactions illustrate how profound is the contempt for democracy in the educated culture. + I x4 L I _9 t* S" [- p/ ~5.39.217.76Unmentioned is what the population thinks – easily discovered. According to polls released by the Brookings Institution in August, some Arabs agree with Washington and western commentators that Iranis a threat: 10%. In contrast, they regard the US and Israel as the major threats (77%; 88%). " z& |8 Y# E3 R$ C" ~# P/ E6 o( A6 Ftvb now,tvbnow,bttvbArab opinion is so hostile to Washington's policies that a majority (57%) think regional security would be enhanced if Iran had nuclear weapons. Still, "there is nothing wrong, everything is under control" (as Muasher describes the prevailing fantasy). The dictators support us. Their subjects can be ignored – unless they break their chains, and then policy must be adjusted. 9 U2 h) J) T& m公仔箱論壇Other leaks also appear to lend support to the enthusiastic judgments about Washington's nobility. In July 2009, Hugo Llorens, U.S.ambassador to Honduras,informed Washington of an embassy investigation of "legal and constitutional issues surrounding the 28 June forced removal of President Manuel 'Mel' Zelaya."5.39.217.76- ?5 Q( T6 S6 b% S) e1 f
The embassy concluded that "there is no doubt that the military,supreme court and national congress conspired on 28 June in what constituted an illegal and unconstitutional coup against the executive branch". Very admirable, except that President Obama proceeded to break with almost all of Latin America and Europe by supporting the coup regime and dismissing subsequent atrocities. 8 D4 `1 X" v, T# etvb now,tvbnow,bttvbPerhaps the most remarkable WikiLeaks revelations have to do with Pakistan,reviewed by foreign policy analyst Fred Branfman in Truthdig. E* {* ^4 c( L( N5 JThe cables reveal that the US embassy is well aware that Washington's war in Afghanistan and Pakistan not only intensifies rampant anti-Americanism but also"risks destabilising the Pakistani state" and even raises a threat of the ultimate nightmare: that nuclear weapons might fall into the hands of Islamic terrorists.+ l+ }1 e( O E% `& {: W! {2 @
Again, the revelations "should create a comforting feeling … that officials are not asleep at the switch" (Heilbrunn's words) – while Washington marches stalwartly toward disaster.
