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標題: [時事討論] 當推翻政府是唯一出路 曾祥泰 [打印本頁]

作者: felicity2010    時間: 2011-2-6 07:13 AM     標題: 當推翻政府是唯一出路 曾祥泰

當推翻政府是唯一出路  曾祥泰
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當中國崛起已成不用爭辯的事實;當中國一黨專政的管治效率、以國企帶動經濟發展的模式、以經濟發展先於人權的中國價值觀,開始在國際輿論中得到一些肯定,甚至連西方也質疑民主體制是否不及中國模式競爭?沒有人料到突尼斯人把統治了二十三年的獨裁者Ben Ali趕下台,更沒有人料到茉莉花革命的餘震,蔓延至埃及、也門和約旦,並觸發了一場席捲整個阿拉伯世界的民主運動。
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6 [6 k8 _7 t4 s+ `5.39.217.76中東從來被視為另一個民主黑洞,但連中東的人民都要求推翻獨裁政權、落實政治改革、建立民主體制時,誰說人權、民主和自由不再是普世價值?
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全世界的焦點在埃及開羅,開羅市中心的自由廣場(Tahrir Square),令人憶起二十二年前的北京天安門廣場。兩場民主運動倒有相似之處﹕政府腐敗,沒有政治組織策動及領導示威,只是一群年輕人自發走出來;聚集在廣場的群眾拒絕離開,坦克軍隊開進城來;示威者都深信埃及軍隊/解放軍是人民的子弟兵,不會向群眾開槍;穆巴拉克和鄧小平都是極端強硬的軍人。
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6 h/ g9 d# O/ R8 J4 ^+ B5.39.217.76想起天安門tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb4 x' ?. S' }  m6 p
現在的埃及和八九年的中國也有不同的地方﹕中國人民的生活在改革開放後改善了,但穆巴拉克當政的三十年間,埃及人民的生活是每愈下;貪污無能的穆巴拉克是問題的根源,很容易把群眾的怒火聚焦;但中國共產黨政府是集體領導的,李鵬之上還有鄧小平、趙紫陽,沒有一個明顯對像可以把民眾的全部怒火集結起來;而且在毛澤東死後,中國領導人是有任期的,再差的當權者也有卸任的一天,不可能像穆巴拉克一樣做到至死方休,還想由兒子接任總統一職。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。% H- \$ _5 ^" M; t7 l6 `

. F  \3 |5 s) V* i- C( y' Wtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb另一個顯著的分別是兩國軍隊的權力來源。黨指揮槍,解放軍由共產黨牢牢控制;但埃及軍隊並不只聽命於穆巴拉克,美國對埃及軍方的影響力可能較穆巴拉克更大,因為美國每年都向埃及軍方提供巨額軍事援助,若穆巴拉克繼續當政會影響與美國的關係,軍隊是可能為了自保而放棄穆巴拉克。公仔箱論壇* I8 |" A# C# F% g% o$ x
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埃及是美國繼以色列後,在中東的第二大盟友;也是繼以色列以外,每年提供最多軍事援助的國家,每年的金額多達15.5億美元(當中有13億是軍事援助,2.5億是經濟援助。美國每年提供以色列的軍事援助則有30億美元),而且埃及的軍官都靠美國訓練。據報道,開羅街頭的M1A1坦克都是在埃及生產,美國不吝把技術轉移給埃及軍方。8 F' P  A3 x, {
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控制埃及  控制石油5.39.217.76# p! s% v* _( P3 _
埃及對美國重要,因為是阿拉伯世界人口最多的國家,也是半個阿拉伯世界的領袖,對中東、甚至對整個世界都有極大的影響力,控制了蘇彝士運河,等於控制了西方石油的供應。文化和宗教的影響力方面,開羅的Al Azhar大學的歷史較牛津大學還要長;第一個現代政治伊斯蘭組織,伊斯蘭兄弟會(Muslim Brotherhood)於1928年在埃及成立;埃及擁有阿拉伯世界最蓬勃的電影工業;埃及作家Alaa Al Aswany是埃及的Orhan Pamuk,他最著名的小說The Yacoubian Building已翻譯為二十三種語言(可惜仍不見中文版),改編小說的電影也曾在○七年的香港電影節上畫。5.39.217.76* g4 N( c( q5 O8 }

. y" @, l, S2 _3 t9 m3 n5.39.217.76上世紀七十年代前,埃及屬於蘇聯的共產陣營,為了拉攏埃及抗衡蘇聯,美國於一九七八年促成當時的以色列總理貝京(Menacham Begin)與埃及總統薩達特(Anwar el Sadat)在大衛營簽和約,以色列退還於一九六七年的六日戰爭中佔領了的西奈半島給埃及,埃及則宣布跟以色列停火,美國則每年向埃及提供軍事援助。公仔箱論壇2 `8 h: V" |9 w; T5 B; u

2 J8 L0 U( g' W# [* x+ Q  G5 g  kTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。和約的簽訂在埃及引起極大震撼,薩達特於一九八一年更遭伊斯蘭武裝分子刺殺,當時擔任副總統的穆巴拉克,就在危難之間接任總統。$ S% t8 M1 l# ^6 r

1 L  j4 I  x3 utvb now,tvbnow,bttvb穆巴拉克擔任副總統前是埃及空軍總司令,他重整被以色列殲滅的空軍,並參與一九七三年與以色列的贖罪日戰爭。雖然埃及和敘利亞無法奪回六日戰爭的失地,但令以軍傷亡慘重,兩國也洗脫了六日戰爭大敗的恥辱,穆巴拉克的地位及名聲由此建立。
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他上任後立即大舉追捕國內涉及行刺薩達特的伊斯蘭武裝分子,並再次頒布緊急狀態令,其中一名被補者就是現在阿蓋達第二頭目札瓦希利(Al Zawahiri)。軍旅生涯及對伊斯蘭組織極端的厭惡,塑造穆巴拉克相信只有強硬,而不是民主開放的制度,才可以為國家帶來安全和穩定,埃及真正的敵人並不是以色列,而是謀求推翻現有制度,建立伊斯蘭國家的極端分子。公仔箱論壇/ v$ ^8 p$ s5 j- n5 P

) [+ j2 W$ j) k7 P9 R3 A7 }5.39.217.76埃及沒有因冷戰結束而失去利用價值,在海灣戰爭、打擊伊朗、維持以色列的安全、促成以巴和談等議題,美國需要埃及在阿拉伯世界的影響力,即使穆巴拉克政府腐敗、打壓異己、選舉舞弊,美國繼續維持對埃及的援助,造成加沙的人道危機不獨是以色列,埃及也難辭其咎,因為埃及也以堵截哈馬斯的武器供應為名,與以色列一同封鎖加沙。公仔箱論壇! k8 ]% D+ N. m7 }, Z) D" N

$ f% ~4 W, e( A7 H7 r# F伊斯蘭兄弟會一直被埃及政府列為非法組織,埃及的議會選舉充斥造票、脅逼、恫嚇、政治暴力。只要穆巴拉克說一句「民主化,政權便會由伊斯蘭兄弟會把持」,美國擔敢推動埃及改革?穆巴拉克也看準美國的弱點,對國內異見的打壓絕不手軟,不顧美國的強烈反對,以莫須有的罪名監禁曾於○五年參與總統選舉的反對派人士Ayman Nour
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若你想了解今天埃及社會,請看Al Aswany的小說The Yacoubian Building。若你父母出身低下階層,你根本無法投考公務員,因為這是靠裙帶關係的社會;政治犯被虐待、被強姦;高層官員貪污;年輕人加入伊斯蘭極端組織,不是因為埃及人對宗教特別狂熱,而是對整個社會及制度徹底失望,相信推翻政府是唯一的出路。7 I0 u8 O: E& }+ ~$ V  H8 T2 u3 f

# w" E! P4 _# |+ C2 X% }& J公仔箱論壇自嘲最易統治順民
# c% b+ t& e/ X" {3 |( `' D' i. uTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。不少埃及人都自嘲,他們是全世界最容易統治的順民,經過多年的壓逼,埃及人還不是屈服於政府的淫威,逆來順受?沒有人料到,只是十多天的時間,看似牢固的穆巴拉克政權,忽然變得岌岌可危。
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# N5 w$ k' F. x2 d  K8 l( j- rtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb埃及今天正處於民主化的十字路口,反對的民眾未能一鼓作氣把穆巴拉克扯下馬、穆巴拉克也無法以暴力壓下民主運動、美國政府仍然舉棋不定,既不願意與大多數埃及人為敵,但又不想背棄多年的盟友。
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究竟埃及是八九年的東歐、成功把握民主化的機會?是八九年的中國,錯失了民主化,但經濟得到發展?還是○九年的伊朗,既錯失了自由化、經濟繼續一團糟?Allah bless Egypt.
作者: felicity2010    時間: 2011-2-6 07:15 AM

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-2-6 07:22 AM 編輯 : h# i2 Y2 Z4 o

4 g5 @  ^  V" P* c, b' i" EIt's not radical Islam that worries the US – it's independence
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  ~/ n' f% j% Z0 m8 F! c3 t, w5.39.217.76By Noam Chomsky  Guardian
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'The Arab world is on fire," al-Jazeera reported last week, while throughout the region, western allies "are quickly losing their influence". The shock wave was set in motion by the dramatic uprising in Tunisia that drove out a western-backed dictator, with reverberations especially in Egypt,where demonstrators overwhelmed a dictator's brutal police.5.39.217.76# Z4 p  E8 p, S/ B! z: |3 U
Observers compared it to the toppling of Russian domains in 1989, but there are important differences. Crucially, no Mikhail Gorbachev exists among the great powers that support the Arab dictators. Rather, Washington and its allies keep to the well-established principle that democracy is acceptable only insofar as it conforms to strategic and economic objectives: fine in enemy territory (up to a point), but not in our backyard, please, unless properly tamed.
0 v1 q: H% d& U( \4 N6 HOne 1989 comparison has some validity: Romania,where Washington maintained its support for Nicolae Ceausescu, the most vicious of the east European dictators,until the allegiance became untenable. Then Washington hailed his overthrow while the past was erased. That is a standard pattern: Ferdinand Marcos, Jean-Claude Duvalier, Chun Doo-hwan, Suharto and many other useful gangsters. It may be under way in the case of Hosni Mubarak,along with routine efforts to try to ensure a successor regime will not veer far from the approved path. The current hope appears to be Mubarak loyalist General Omar Suleiman, just named Egypt's vice-president. Suleiman, the longtime head of the intelligence services, is despised by the rebelling public almost as much as the dictator himself.
* u0 @$ c! R; _9 C1 Q6 b公仔箱論壇A common refrain among pundits is that fear of radical Islam requires(reluctant) opposition to democracy on pragmatic grounds. While not without some merit, the formulation is misleading. The general threat has always been independence.The US and itsallies have regularly supported radical Islamists, sometimes to prevent the threat of secular nationalism.
$ l  S# K& Z- H  m9 {. `8 a5.39.217.76A familiar example is Saudi Arabia,the ideological centre of radical Islam (and of Islamic terror). Another in along list is Zia ul-Haq, the most brutal of Pakistan's dictators and President Reagan's favorite, who carried out a programme of radical Islamisation (with Saudi funding).tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5 G' x: W$ K) |* p% H/ K! O6 u
"The traditional argument put forward in and out of the Arab world is that there is nothing wrong, everything is under control," says Marwan Muasher, a former Jordanian official and now director of Middle East research for the Carnegie Endowment. "With this line of thinking, entrenched forces argue that opponents and outsiders calling for reform are exaggerating the conditions on the ground."TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。* E" i, ], p4 a- d, f! }# Z
Therefore the public can be dismissed. The doctrine traces far back and generalises worldwide, to US home territory as well. In the event of unrest,tactical shifts may be necessary, but always with an eye to reasserting control.公仔箱論壇. F; c2 C* M" \! f
The vibrant democracy movement in Tunisia was directed against "a police state, with little freedom of expression or association, and serious human rights problems", ruled by a dictator whose family was hated for their venality. So said US ambassador Robert Godec in a July 2009 cable released by WikiLeaks.
7 B1 k" d; t- ~  v6 {; bTherefore to some observers the WikiLeaks "documents should create a comforting feeling among the American public that officials aren't asleep at the switch" – indeed, that the cables are so supportive of US policies that it is almost as if Obama is leaking them himself (or so Jacob Heilbrunn writes in The National Interest.)5.39.217.76- i! r* i0 j: x7 c
"America should give Assange a medal," says a headline in the Financial Times,where Gideon Rachman writes: "America's foreign policy comes across as principled, intelligent and pragmatic … the public position taken by the US on any given issue is usually the private position as well."5.39.217.76" b: _( m( C: Z7 \  c& K8 l! K* b% g3 j, F
In this view, WikiLeaks undermines "conspiracy theorists" who question the noble motives Washington proclaims.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。' v" B1 i+ e( B. d, w# J
Godec's cable supports these judgments – at least if we look no further. If we do,, as foreign policy analyst Stephen Zunes reports in Foreign Policy in Focus, we find that, with Godec's information in hand, Washington provided $12m in military aid to Tunisia.As it happens, Tunisia was one of only five foreign beneficiaries: Israel(routinely); the two Middle East dictatorships Egypt and Jordan; and Colombia, which has long had the worst human-rights record and the most US military aid in the hemisphere.- {( H3 f, D/ T. w0 J
Heilbrunn's exhibit A is Arab support for US policies targeting Iran,revealed by leaked cables. Rachman too seizes on this example, as did the media generally, hailing these encouraging revelations. The reactions illustrate how profound is the contempt for democracy in the educated culture.$ C. w) F4 o, O6 e0 ~$ N% S$ J
Unmentioned is what the population thinks – easily discovered. According to polls released by the Brookings Institution in August, some Arabs agree with Washington and western commentators that Iranis a threat: 10%. In contrast, they regard the US and Israel as the major threats (77%; 88%).; M1 V% U% Z' x( f) n; q) W
Arab opinion is so hostile to Washington's policies that a majority (57%) think regional security would be enhanced if Iran had nuclear weapons. Still, "there is nothing wrong, everything is under control" (as Muasher describes the prevailing fantasy). The dictators support us. Their subjects can be ignored – unless they break their chains, and then policy must be adjusted.
( R1 o3 Z4 @4 y" g9 mtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbOther leaks also appear to lend support to the enthusiastic judgments about Washington's nobility. In July 2009, Hugo Llorens, U.S.ambassador to Honduras,informed Washington of an embassy investigation of "legal and constitutional issues surrounding the 28 June forced removal of President Manuel 'Mel' Zelaya."
4 a1 h" d* N% G- p1 G5.39.217.76The embassy concluded that "there is no doubt that the military,supreme court and national congress conspired on 28 June in what constituted an illegal and unconstitutional coup against the executive branch". Very admirable, except that President Obama proceeded to break with almost all of Latin America and Europe by supporting the coup regime and dismissing subsequent atrocities.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。# G. M2 N# c0 Q; O
Perhaps the most remarkable WikiLeaks revelations have to do with Pakistan,reviewed by foreign policy analyst Fred Branfman in Truthdig.
' Y* ~$ a8 a1 f- O: o/ L: D5.39.217.76The cables reveal that the US embassy is well aware that Washington's war in Afghanistan and Pakistan not only intensifies rampant anti-Americanism but also"risks destabilising the Pakistani state" and even raises a threat of the ultimate nightmare: that nuclear weapons might fall into the hands of Islamic terrorists.公仔箱論壇  t2 f4 W5 r3 v" {5 b
Again, the revelations "should create a comforting feeling … that officials are not asleep at the switch" (Heilbrunn's words) – while Washington marches stalwartly toward disaster.




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