[時事討論] 林行止: 對話要領在背後外部勢力非熱腸

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-10-9 09:57 AM 編輯
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林行止: 對話要領在背後外部勢力非熱腸
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一、寫稿的時候，學聯與政府的「對話」能否如期於明午四時召開，看雙方就議程及地點各自表述的情況，仍是未知之數；如果順利召開，會否「談得攏」而定下後會之期，更是誰亦無法說得準。目前可以預估的是，不論「對話」展開與否，金鐘現場均會十分熱鬧—「對話」拉倒，滙聚於此的學生和市民必會躁動；「對話」召開，一起看直播的群眾則會對屏幕大發議論……。明天入夜金鐘必然十分「熱鬧」！TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5 v6 R& z& i" y' i. ]* D5 `
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不管內地官媒如何報道和評論（事實是抹黑）「雨傘運動」（卓文在昨天的專欄中稱之為「遮擋運動」，更恰切更傳神，香港人其實說「雨遮」多於「雨傘」），筆者相信中央決策官員不會相信這次由學生主導的公民抗爭活動，有令蘇聯集團變天蘇聯本身解體的「顏色革命」的「負能量」，因為香港市民不僅手無寸鐵，且無縛雞之力，根本無法無力無膽無意「造反」；另一方面，「外國勢力」即使同情「雨傘運動」，「看在錢銀份上」，充其量只會隔海看熱鬧，不可能暗助遑論真的出手相助。香港因此「得個嘈字」，對中共政權並無絲毫「殺傷力」。換句話說，香港絕無可能動搖中共的統治（支聯會年年高呼打倒中共的口號而北京置若罔聞，便是深明其完全發揮不了實際作用），事無大小均須聽從北京指示的特區政府，因而未獲授權可動用「大殺傷力武器」彈壓群眾，北京當然更不會調解放軍入城。* X# C- Y% v0 i( |

經過這麼多年，香港人對於「外國（來）勢力」介入香港事務的有效性，應當非常清楚；那是，所有國家參與外國事務的前提為「是否有利於吾國」，如今中國全方位崛興，別說在許多國際事務上西方國家需要中國的同意或協助，僅就經濟層面而言，失去中國市場或中國投資，對眾多國家都會造成某種程度的困難（或對本已疲不能興的經濟發生雪上加霜效應），因此，在現階段向這些國家求助，若非碰一鼻子灰便是空手而回……。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb$ x# ^! V/ s/ V0 D( H6 B

二、被傳媒稱為千福ＢＢ的美國駐港領事，數月前不是意氣高揚擺出一副帶引香港民主運動的言行嗎？然而，在「雨傘運動」啟動後，某些人極需要他的「精神鼓勵」的時候，他真像ＢＢ般「被」銷聲匿迹，在避無可避時充其量隔空說些無關痛癢模棱兩可（取態中立？！）的話，與香港民情完全脫節！筆者實在無意批評這位熟悉中國事務的美國外交幹員，只想指出這種人只會盡忠職守為其祖國利益發聲（這是外派官員的首務）。當他們的國家與中國就某些有共同利益問題出現爭執時，他們會做出一些不利北京的表態，以之作為該國政府與中方交換利益的籌碼；近來千福ＢＢ不僅沒有去金鐘表演支持港人爭取真普選，幾近完全禁聲，這不是他「變」了，而且美國有求於中國，他於是對香港的民主運動興趣缺缺！

今年二月二十六日，本欄的《陰柔招數拔異己　和平革命卻瘟神》，是《獨裁者精乖了》的「讀後感」。這本書的《導言》說的明白︰「專制國家並不特別害怕美國，因為世界的互動日趨頻密。美國是中國最大的貿易夥伴之一，還是委內瑞拉石油的最大買主……，在許多重要的戰略議題上，美國必須仰仗俄國外交上的支持，聯合國的制裁對專制獨裁國家而言，往往不痛不癢，外國人權團體若發出抗議，只須驅逐出境即可。事實上，外國的介入，不論是美國、聯合國，還是國際刑事法庭等組織，往往是獨裁者極有用的擋箭牌（useful shield），可以用來掀起國內的民族主義熱潮，鼓動人民團結起來保衞國家！」

筆者衷心希望香港的有心人，今後不要再去「游說列強」支持香港了，因為他們的國家利益凌駕港人權益，港人只會被利用而不會得到什麼實質協助，實不至的口惠（另一種假大空）是沒意義沒意思的；而不這樣做，還會免去被指斥為「勾結外國勢力」的「賣國賊」。這種罪名的後果可大可小。

在政治和經濟上有求於中國，外國尤其是販賣「普世價值」的美國，不會為香港這個政治作用甚低的經濟城市和北京硬碰。不過，中國一旦縱容特區政府對和平示威群眾動用有殺傷力的「暴力」，便肯定有嚴重效果，因為深受基督教倫理影響，西方國家的消費者會要求企業別和中國做生意和拒買中國製造的商品；投資者則會要求機構投資者撤出中國（和香港）市場……。即使西方國家政府袖手旁觀只出「口術」，中國經濟和香港金融都會遭受重大衝擊。

除非中共的統治受威脅，不然，中國絕不容許特區政府「重拳出擊」！

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三、二月二十六日本欄提及「和平抗爭運動理論大師」真沙普一九九三年為緬甸民主運動而寫的《從獨裁統治走向民主政體》（G. Sharp:From Dictatorship to Democracy；可從TheAlbert Einstein Institution同名網站免費下載；據出版資料，二○○五年有中譯本），其附錄一巨細無遺地臚列了數百項「和平抗爭」（Nonviolent Action）必須採取的步驟（可視為「和平抗爭者手冊」），舉其犖犖大者，有組織者在行動前要發表「正式聲明」（扼要有力地述說發起抗爭的理由）、大事宣傳以廣周知（在網絡時代這並無困難）、採用有象徵性的標誌（如黃絲帶〔十九世紀美國女性爭取投票權的標誌〕）、舉辦公眾論壇或討論會……。「三子」和「兩學」發起的「雨傘運動」都做到了。

現在是能否進行「對話」的敏感時刻，真沙普在本書闢專章談此命題（第二章︰《談判的危險性》），他指出「談判」（或「對話」）是解決衝突的有用工具，任何一方，只要並非抱玉石俱焚心態，應爭取任何談判的機會；不過，「談判」不一定能達成雙方滿意的結論（not...reaching a mutually satisfactory solution），「滿意」很多時要「鬥爭」才能獲致。至於弱勢的一方是否有在「鬥爭」中滿足訴求的潛力，便要知己知彼，審時度勢，不可輕舉妄動。
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真沙普認為，獨裁者提出通過談判解決爭端，其出發點許多時是「詭詐」的，因為這極可能是強勢的一方軟硬兼施迫使對手放棄抗爭的手段。當然，真沙普的對象是國家和可能威脅到其權力的反對派，與獲北京全力支持，有警力、情報人員、線民及僱傭兵（流氓）的特區政府和除了滿腔熱誠什麼都無有怕的學生（和市民）完全不同……。這次「對話」之能否成功，「三人組」不是關鍵，北京是否願意稍微後退半步才重要。由於十八大四中全會在本月二十至二十三日舉行，中共理順「家事」後，便可放手處理香港問題；但繼之而來的是十一月初在北京舉行的亞太國家領袖峰會（原本在港舉行），是政治敏感期。因此，如果學聯與政府成功啟動「對話」，筆者相信將是一次「馬拉松式」的會議。

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發表於 2014-10-9 10:18 PM | 只看該作者

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-10-9 10:26 PM 編輯 公仔箱論壇+ M8 S; Y) A* u
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《華盛頓郵報》：最大輸家是梁振英    ' g/ A8 [/ U& q' ~" i. X
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近日佔中的形勢稍為緩和，今天美國《華盛頓郵報》就藉著這個時刻刊登一篇文章，總結這一個多星期所發生的事。5.39.217.767 F1 u6 z7 [4 P2 D9 u
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文章指出，即使現時參與集會的人數開始減少，但只要政府與學生的對話破裂，再次爆發大型示威是可以預料的。再說，這次社會運動，已經表示了香港人對於民主政制有所追求－－他們不僅希望得到，而且願意付出，是以不論當局屢次表示將會清場，又或以威嚇的手段驅趕群眾，最終都徒勞無功，仍然令很多支持者聚集各處佔領場地。
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有些悲觀人士或會覺得，怎樣做都好，北京在這件事上絕對不會讓步。然而文章覺得，在短時間内大家已經做到威脅香港政治體制的行動，所以最大的輸家是特首梁振英：就像他不敢面對全港市民，僅以電視講話對外界溝通，空談集會人士應該馬上撤離，是為實例。0 L* L6 I. I2 ~  d' d
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事實上，令梁振英民望急降的一著，是從他施放第一枚催淚彈開始。就像中央高層，他認為自己的施政毋須得到市民支持，從而把政府總部外面的一處集會地點，以防暴警察進行清場，加上他又將民主支持者「妖魔化」，無不令他的處境尤其險峻，建制中人也有不少反對他擔任特首一職。經此一役，就為大家製造一個「倒梁」的良好契機。
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文章引述立法會主席曾鈺成稱，假若2017年仍然未有普選，香港就會「不能管治」，而隨著香港邁向民主，親中陣營就會愈來愈得不到選民支持。於是某些較為進取的親中政客，就可能需要在這個時候，把取態變得溫和一點，因為「雨傘新一代」將會成為未來數十年的政治新寵。% d. P3 M& i; y: l3 I
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與此同時，文章亦提及北京方面需要思考一下香港真正面對的問題；國家主席習近平還需重新審視形勢，不能動輒就用鎮壓來解決問題。另外他亦要撤換中聯辦一些強硬派的官員，就是他們兩年多以前的錯判，捨棄了中央本來屬意的唐英年，而硬推梁振英上台，繼而造成當下的殘局。

最後文章認為，那些認為學生訴求不切實際的人，是錯誤的；只要他們仍然團結、有原則、意志堅定的話，中央始終都要妥協。

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Ishaan Tharoor: 4 reasons Hong Kong’s protests failed (and 4 reasons they didn’t)
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Hong Kong's pro-democracy demonstrations have petered out. With the exception of a few protest encampments and blockaded streets, life has mostly returned to normal in this bustling Asian metropolis. It's a far cry from the heady days last week when the world's attention fixed on the hundreds of thousands joining in the occupation of the heart of the city center.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb3 {$ ?* _! p" \

A slow process of talks with the local government seems about to begin, and critics of the protesters have grown noisier. But does that mean the protesters— many of whom were college and high school students — have lost? Here are some reasons why the protests may have failed, and why they have not.
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4 REASONS THE PROTESTS FAILED# k  i0 y2 W1 \2 O, _$ _5 b5 x9 Y$ F/ P
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The protesters won next to nothing
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Despite all their labors — the rallies convened, the rain squalls endured, the water bottles distributed, the hours spent on the hard asphalt of some of Hong Kong's main roads — the students did not achieve any of their central demands. Hong Kong's top leader, Chief Executive Leung Chun-Ying, remains in office and is showing no sign of voluntarily stepping down. The pro-democracy camp's quest to win genuine universal suffrage from Beijing appears,as it perhaps always did, a hopeful aspiration with little chance of being realized. The student organizations that mobilized the protest are now attempting to hold talks with Hong Kong's government in a bid to show their supporters some tangible success, but it's unclear how much they'll be able to gain from it.
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The restraint and patience of the authorities6 ?0 r2 [# h! W% b& V

The main catalyst of the protests was the overreaction of Hong Kong's government and police: first in briefly detaining 17-year-old student leader Joshua Wong on Sept. 26 and, two days later, firing 87 rounds of tear gas on protesters near Hong Kong's government headquarters. This heavy-handed action galvanized a critical mass of Hong Kongers and immediately placed the events in the former British colonyy in an unwelcome historical frame: that of Beijing's 1989crackdown on student democracy demonstrations in Tiananmen Square.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb. S+ Q) s: p; Q1 A: g4 S2 i+ V# J/ P

But in the days thereafter, as the protests swelled and angry crowds gathered in front of police barricades, the authorities behaved with calm and patience. (It's unclear to what extent Hong Kong police were involved, if at all, in the violence directed at protesters on Friday by suspected "triad" elements.) Hong Kong's government ceded some of the city's busiest streets to the protesters and did not follow through on threats to clear out the occupied areas.It opted to wait out the protesters, many of whom were bound to return to their jobs and classes by the end of last week's holiday period. The patience of the authorities eclipsed the sheer willpower of the pro-democracy camp.
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A lack of leadershipTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( i9 g% O) R% ]/ U+ ?6 d; n

Hong Kong's protest movement, like many of the recent uprisings that have captured the world's imagination, was characterized by its decentralized nature. The student leaders chased by reporters insisted that they had little control over the tens of thousands occupying Hong Kong's streets. There were no clear hierarchical chains of command. And there was no focal figurehead around whose moral authority the protesters could rally.

Frequently last week, protesters complained of not knowing what they were working toward each day of the occupation; others said they would not follow various directives and entreaties of student leaders if they disagreed with them. Leadership matters — not just for the sake of building a movement,but also to give it credibility and momentum. The latter, at least, seemed to fade quickly on the streets of occupied Hong Kong.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb) h5 h- W* ^( C+ }
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Loss of popular support公仔箱論壇0 ^. J' k! B; b$ m5 z" N

The protests closed some of Hong Kong's central arteries, snarling the city's traffic, shutting down tram lines and scrambling the commutes of hundreds of thousands of ordinary residents. In the packed commercial neighborhoods of Causeway Bay and Mong Kok, student occupations came up against frustrated locals, many of whom had no qualms with the students' political convictions but resented the harm done to their livelihoods. Once it became clear that the police would not initiate any sort of heavy-handed crackdown,the protesters had to fight an uphill battle to retain public sympathy."People are getting tired of the inconvenience," one protester told me Saturday night. "We're going to have to leave soon."
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4 REASONS THEY DID NOT FAIL

The protesters have the moral high ground

In the face of Beijing, run by some of the world's most ruthless politicians, and a local government largely seen as detached and incompetent, it was easy to be charmed by the protesters. They were rallying for democratic rights they believed are owed to their city — not the chaotic overthrow of the status quo. Their cause was marked by an astonishing self-discipline and collective ethic, best exemplified in the protesters' remarkable efforts to clean the occupation site, care for one another's well-being and even recycle. Moreover, they practiced non-violent civil disobedience, raising their hands as a mark of peacefulness even at moments of intense provocation.
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The protests were not going to loosen Beijing's authoritarian grip over HongKong in the space of one week. But they did illustrate how tight and cruel that grip can be.0 K" z7 r2 p1 i

The occupation laid down a marker
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In the eyes of many outsiders, Hong Kong is not a necessarily "political" place.It is defined by its hustle and bustle, its jet-setting, cosmopolitan banker elites, its tales of rags-to-riches fortunes. The city is a no-nonsense,free-wheeling global entrepot. It's about commerce, not politics. That was the philosophy that governed British colonial rule in the territory and which was continued after the 1997 handover to China.
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The protests were a shock to the system. Hong Kong sees marches and vigils every year,including when thousands commemorate the June 4 anniversary of the events at Tiananmen. But the events of last week were unprecedented: protesters didn't just march, but seized territory and shut down parts of the city.It turned into a landmark episode in Hong Kong's political history. And it will have real effects: Even if he survives the protests, it's possible Chief Executive Leung — now unpopular among Hong Kong's oligarchic elites as well as Beijing's disappointed politicos — may be compelled to resign not long from now., c' ]& v- K9 X. I. I7 e( n

The protests politicized a new generationtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb# [2 o! P+ {' a" g) D# n$ w* I
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The most memorable protest leader is 17-year-old Joshua Wong,  a spindly waif of a teenager who looks like his natural place still belongs before an Xbox, not the barricades in front of a top official's office. As he resisted reporters' attempts to hail his own achievements, he seemed to epitomize the sense of purpose voiced by many in Hong Kong's new protest generation."I'm organizing," he explained to WorldViews last week, "because thirty years from now, I don't want my own kid to be on the streets,fighting for democracy."5.39.217.76' e; K6 a& B- a; t* w9 h* l
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Everywhere you looked at the height of the protests, you saw young students chanting,singing songs, passing around supplies, swapping stories, painting banners, and sharing the moment together. The events of the past week will live long in their minds. "We are here together to be with each other," said Serena Lee, 22. "We know this will be a long war."公仔箱論壇8 _4 h$ B4 V( e6 P! S
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The underlying problems will not go awayTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。/ X' K, s9 x! J' L
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And they'll have plenty of ammunition in the years and decades to come. Hong Kong's rowdy media and sophisticated civil society will not be so easily bent by Beijing's agenda. Moreover, the protests weren't just animated by the issue of elections and democracy. The students were also launching scathing attacks on the administration of their own city, a celebrated capital of global finance that happens also be one of the most unequal societies on the planet. The systemic problems that are coming to the fore in Hong Kong — the poverty gap, the impossibility for many to own property — will be difficult to tackle. Hong Kong's new army of dissidents will know when to fight their next battles.
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[時事討論] 林行止: 對話要領在背後 外部勢力非熱腸

[時事討論] 林行止: 對話要領在背後外部勢力非熱腸