[時事討論] 黃軍禮: 烏克蘭動盪系列（2） | 烏克蘭的『左』『右』大局」

felicity2010

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, r/ m$ ?1 A. w黃軍禮: 烏克蘭動盪系列（2） | 烏克蘭的『左』『右』大局」& n6 A' l5 u. u9 V2 u; W' @8 x4 ]

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近日俄羅斯與烏克蘭在克里米亞的衝突成為了國際焦點，而戰爭的戰線，自然亦蔓延到媒體的報道角度。兩天前，便有美國女主播不滿俄羅斯電視台的偏頗報道，憤而在直播期間辭職。
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) @) V& L) h9 t: n: U* n- R- F; X俄羅斯電視台的報道，固然是宣揚親俄論述。然而，據筆者或有粗疏的觀察，在政治上較為偏左（信奉社會主義、反美帝國主義）的報章、學者，普遍同樣對烏克蘭的親歐派較有戒心。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb9 J& p$ h" S# a4 `; W4 P# C
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左翼人士認為亞努科維奇倒台的背後，明顯有著美國及歐盟干預的影子。以季莫申科為例，她在當上總理之前，實際是控制烏克蘭大量天然氣公司的大財閥，有「天然氣公主」之稱。實際上，橙色革命，便是美國和歐盟在背後支持這些財閥才得以成功。然而，這些親歐派在改善民生上卻沒有多大作為，季莫申科本人甚至牽涉在貪污醜聞的鋃鐺入獄。在他們的眼裏，烏克蘭親歐派並不是甚麽好東西。
1 s: y5 [7 b2 E5 q1 _TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。
6 S: R! k; l1 Q, |! K1 F2 J1 yTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。左翼人士同時認為，現時的親歐派有走向過激的民族主義的憂慮。首先，烏克蘭在東部地區仍有不少國民使用俄語的情況下，廢除「俄語」作為第二語言，明顯是缺乏包容的行為。此外，在推翻亞努科維奇的過程中，激進的親納粹分子亦有參與其中。這些人排斥一切非烏語使用者，甚至肆意攻擊不懂烏克蘭語的人。因此，他們普遍認為烏克蘭現時面對瀕臨分裂的政局，是西方與俄羅斯角力的結果，不能完全歸咎俄烏任何一方。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。0 D( [, B1 \) A  h1 ]- n. X
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右翼人士（本土主義、反共）的立場，則通常較同情烏克蘭的親歐派，反對普京入侵克里米亞。對於本土主義者來說，烏克蘭人自覺與俄羅斯人的文化不同，才會對堅持使用俄語的人有厭惡的情緒。而兩害取其輕，與其永遠是俄國的附庸，無法擺脫蘇聯強權的陰影，支持親歐派，自然是右翼份子的「正常選擇」。由於大家看慣的CNN、BBC等主流媒體大多從上述角度出發，所以筆者亦在此不贅。
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* {& [/ A4 i/ |把左翼及右翼對烏克蘭事件的觀點羅列出來，不是要批判「左膠」、「右膠」。而是希望讓讀者知道，包括筆者在內，在闡述烏克蘭事件之時，總不免由於個人的信念、政治取態及篇幅所限，自覺或不自覺地在寫作時側重部分觀點。各位讀者倘若希望在眾多文章之中，了解烏克蘭的真象。多閱讀、多「解讀」（解毒），才能在「偏見」之中看見較完整的真象。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb8 t& ^, ]2 O  E0 _, i. Q
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felicity2010

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The Economist: The Ukraine blame-game
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- }- d0 e  u: I& Q$ i* v) ?2 kTO SOME critics, Ukraine’s agonies are Barack Obama’s fault. His lead-from-behind foreign policy has so dismayed America’s allies and emboldened its foes that Russia knew it could send troops prowling round Crimea with impunity.
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The crisis is the “ultimate result of a feckless foreign policy where nobody believes in America’s strength any more,”says Senator John McCain of Arizona, the dean of the Republican Party’s(much-diminished) national-security wing. To another hawk, Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a “weak and indecisive” Mr Obama “invites”aggression. Even some Democrats have broken ranks. One, Senator Chris Coons of Delaware, has blamed trouble in Ukraine, in part, on Mr Obama’s “perceived weakness” in Syria, which has left not just Russia but “vital allies” doubting America’s will to act.
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! z- p8 s1 u) K6 v5.39.217.76Some frustration is sincere. Mr Obama’s professorial, chin-stroking approach to geopolitics can grate at the best of times—pondering his own foreign policy in a recent interview with Bloomberg View, he called it “restrained, and I think thoughtful”. These are not the best of times. In particular, even friendly governments call Mr Obama’s Syria policy a mess, notably since he failed to enforce his vow that the use of chemical weapons would be a “red line” triggering military strikes, instead grabbing at a Russian offer to help dismantle Syrian stocks of poison gas.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb8 f/ s- w9 A1 D$ d! k( t! }

6 X. |0 C- V, C/ t' f. D+ d8 A5.39.217.76Yet there is a self-serving undercurrent to much “Who Lost Ukraine?” commentary. It is not just that Republicans enjoy painting Mr Obama as a new Jimmy Carter. Those pondering a White House run in2016, such as Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, see a chance to attack Hillary Clinton, Mr Obama’s former secretary of state and a putative Democratic presidential contender, for her role in an ill-fated “reset” of relations with Russia.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。% J6 R, Z' F" L
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The sheer range of the charges being levelled against Mr Obama is unhelpful. Rigour demands that they be weighed one by one.First take the charge that Mr Obama’s “weakness” emboldens President Vladimir Putin of Russia. True, Mr Obama is sceptical about the use of large-scale military force to resolve geopolitical tangles (though he uses drones and special forces liberally). But none of his critics has called for American troops or warplanes to rush to Ukraine’s aid. “There’s no viable military action that can be taken, I accept that,” sighs Mr McCain.
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Perhaps critics mean that Mr Putin might have stayed his hand if he had harboured just a doubt about Mr Obama’s willingness to use force. But Mr Putin invaded another neighbour, Georgia, in 2008, when America’s president was George W. Bush, whose martial zeal few doubted. Mr Bush airlifted Georgian troops home from Iraq and sent American military transport planes to Georgia’s capital, Tbilisi, to make it harder to overrun. His vice-president, Dick Cheney, vowed that “Russian aggression must not go unanswered.” But it did go unanswered, largely. Russia took effective control of a fifth of Georgia after a peace deal brokered by European leaders. Russians control that territory to this day.公仔箱論壇4 N% a; q  a; Y
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Now Washington is alive with politicians suggesting fierce policies that might cow Mr Putin this time round. Many, such as visa bans and asset freezes for Russian oligarchs, have little support in Europe. Others are not in America’s power: Mr Cruz talks of suspending Russia from the UN Security Council. Some are unwise. Several senators want Georgia and Ukraine on a fast-track to NATO membership, though neither is ready (and many European allies would not defend them against Russia, undermining the main article of that alliance).5.39.217.761 B# T1 g2 }! q; e3 ]
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Those convinced that a weak Mr Obama has emboldened foes are concentrating on the wrong bit of his foreign policy.Managing a thug like Mr Putin, who would distrust any American president, was never going to be easy. More thoughtful critiques consider how Mr Obama relates to allies.
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Mr Putin is not deterred by even the toughest Western rhetoric when he sees a chance to advance national interests, says Fiona Hill of the Brookings Institution, a think-tank, who led government intelligence analysis of Russia during the Georgian crisis. The only way now to slow his march into Ukraine, she suggests, is for America to work in lockstep with Europe, preventing Mr Putin from exploiting Western divisions.
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Kurt Volker, a former American ambassador to NATO, wishes that America had worked with Europe years ago to make Ukraine’s oligarch-infested energy sector more transparent. Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee, the senior Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee,wants co-ordination with Europe on economic aid for Ukraine. Senator Marco Rubio,a Florida Republican, argues for opening up American gas exports to the region,to weaken Russia’s grip as an energy supplier.公仔箱論壇" E* W8 `8 P2 {8 J7 P( d% I
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While Putin puts the boot in, the West is disputing
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Alas, Team Obama is surprisingly bad at alliances. In Ukraine, America largely outsourced policy to Europe for many months, before deciding too late that it was going wrong. Forget criticism in Washington about how a stronger, Reaganesque president might intimidate foes. A larger problem is the White House’s resentful attitude towards America’s friends. Officials grumble about being stuck with the job of keeping the peace in Asia, Europe and the Middle East while free-riding allies enjoy the fruits of global trade. Time for others to step up and do their share of maintaining an open international order, they say. Officials talk of the “bandwidth” chewed up by high-maintenance bits of the world, when Mr Obama would prefer to focus on fast-growing Asia, or—as public opinion loudly demands—on nation-building back home.
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" x% \7 A- ~1 F+ Z2 |/ J) g5.39.217.76Well, tough. Great powers cannot always choose where to expend time and energy. Mr Obama did not cause Russia’s assault on Ukraine: that has roots which long predate him. But now he must lead efforts to contain Mr Putin’s mischief.5.39.217.768 L7 ?( K2 a( o/ ?

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felicity2010

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Michael Meyer: Ukraine’s Unintended Consequences
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, w( A/ A; U0 c+ W2 \4 Q/ R公仔箱論壇NAIROBI – Now that Russia has occupied the Crimea Peninsula, the blame game has begun. US President Barack Obama has allowed yet another “red line” to be crossed, critics say. And everywhere there is loose talk of a “new Cold War” and the “price” to be paid by the Russian aggressors. But, in this fraught environment, we would do well to recall two historical precedents.
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Twenty-five years ago, this month, Hungarian Prime Minister Miklos Nemeth traveled to Moscow to seek Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev’s blessing for a radical experiment. Nemeth, barely 40, had been appointed by the ruling Hungarian Socialist Workers’ Party only four months earlier. He was seen as a naïve young technocrat, charged with reforming the ailing Hungarian economy. He was expected to fail. Then he and his“reforms” could be blamed for the country’s troubles.
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Nemeth, however, was anything but naïve. And he had a secret aim: to take Hungary out of the Soviet bloc and steer it to the West. His weapon of choice was democracy. Within a few months, he planned to hold Hungary’s first free election. What would happen, I asked him at the time,if the communists lost? “We would step down,” Nemeth replied, “as in any other civilized democracy.”- E( m: U& [. g' R* o
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In communist Eastern Europe, that was apostasy. And Gorbachev, hearing of the young Hungarian’s plans, was outraged.Communist leadership in Hungary was not something for the mere people to decide, he spluttered. A full, free, and fair election? It would set a terrible example for the rest of the Soviet bloc.
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3 b$ K! k, U4 R) l- B- RNemeth saw his reforms failing and an uncertain future for himself. Then Gorbachev abruptly ended his lecture. But of course, he said, “this is for you to decide.”
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Almost not believing his good fortune, Nemeth asked the million-dollar question. If Hungary were to hold a genuinely democratic election, and if the communists lost, would Moscow intervene, as in1956? “Nyet,” said Gorbachev, and then added a caveat. “At least, not as long  as I sit in this chair.”
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This nyet was of fundamental importance. With it, Nemeth was able to return to Budapest and proceed with the election, marking a turning point in the tumultuous events that would end with the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989 and the breakup of the Soviet empire.1 I  D8 k& M+ B8 n0 W# S6 h4 S; \, D
Fast forward to the present, and contrast Nemeth’s deft diplomacy with what we see in Kyiv. Instead of recognizing (and dealing with) Russia’s inevitably outsize role in the region, Ukraine’s revolutionary government defied it. Instead of speaking reasonably of finding solutions to the country’s problems that would accommodate the needs and interests of all of its citizens, the new government abolished Russian as eastern Ukraine’s official second language and intimated that it would soon eliminate its traditional autonomy as well.1 n: n4 a& M% E% i& x2 [6 e' ]  ^

0 Z2 J+ Q6 o1 ?1 V6 Y) W5.39.217.76It should surprise no one that Russia has intervened. If Nemeth had handled matters as badly in 1989, the map of Europe might look very different today.5.39.217.76' s) q- C9 A0 c$ z  [* Y5 O. U
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Consider another historical echo. President Jimmy Carter spent New Year’s Eve, 1979, phoning Democratic Party leaders in rural Iowa. Carter was facing re-election, and he enjoyed a comfortable leadover rival Ronald Reagan. But, just days earlier, the Soviet Union had invaded Afghanistan. Neither the United States nor anyone else was in a position to stop it. What to do?TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。9 r1 X" A- s, k5 r/ w. C1 z5 P

  y2 E8 w- Z) k7 b1 m" s5.39.217.76So Carter worked the phones, trying to persuade Iowa’s farmers to endorse an embargo on grain exports to the Soviet Union. It would deliver a financial body blow to the Midwest’s economy, Carter feared, and jeopardize his prospects for a second term. Along the way, an embargo might well accomplish nothing except to deepen Cold War animosities.
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And that is exactly what happened. Carter lost the 1980 election, and the Soviet Union barely felt the embargo. Instead,the US found another way to penalize Soviet aggression: arming the Afghan mujahedeen. A decade later, the Red Army had withdrawn its forces, the US packed up and went home, and Al Qaeda set down roots.4 k: i2 h  m4 y& @$ s

, h) \5 |, l1 ~( s% }公仔箱論壇Today, we are at another historical turning point. Once again, Western leaders face a challenge for which there is no good response. Once again, they feel they must do something, anything – even if they have no sense of the ultimate consequences.5.39.217.76  w9 G/ W- o3 M3 q. ^# N
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Rather than react blindly, as Carter did, it would be better to follow Nemeth’s lead and think strategically about aims and means. In the face of passion and pressure, cool heads must prevail and force the firebrands in Kyiv to think carefully about Ukraine’s future and negotiate solutions for all of its citizens.
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Now is the moment for dispassion. We know from past experience that the law of unintended consequences can be harsh.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5 c6 ?7 k/ F  h

4 |6 @# c6 l4 b" N. u6 }6 E( y, J3 tTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Michael Meyer, a former communications director for UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, is Dean of the Graduate School of Media and Communications at Aga Khan University in Nairobi.
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