[時事討論] 強人可以捨　埃及不能　盧峯

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-2-3 09:34 AM 編輯 5.39.217.76* k5 a! I4 g! a1 W/ V% C

強人可以捨　埃及不能　盧峯

兩個星期前,埃及民眾還乖乖待在街中看電視,關注着突尼斯的「茉莉花革命」( Jasmine Revolution)。那個時候,埃及總統穆巴拉克的政權看來穩如泰山,誰也不擔心埃及會出甚麼問題,美國老大哥同樣放一百個心,不相信強人穆巴拉克會出甚麼問題。
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這樣的信心不是沒有根據的。穆巴拉克治下的埃及過去三十年就像一個超穩定系統那樣,沒有出現過任何政治危機,沒有輸出革命,沒有再跟以色列開戰,沒有為恐怖組織提供訓練或庇護。從西方世界特別是美國來看,穆巴拉克治下的埃及可說是中東地區的模範生,不但全力配合美國的中東政策,不但成為以色列安全的屏障,更成了抵禦激進主義在中東傳播的中流砥柱。公仔箱論壇9 \" u" R2 S8 x- j) O
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可是,突尼斯的「茉莉花革命」不到兩星期,模範生突然周身麻煩。向來乖乖接受強人統治的埃及人民突然如潮水般湧上街頭,即使軍警出動坦克車威嚇也毫無懼色,還誓言要把穆巴拉克拉下台。奉召入開羅維持秩序的軍隊及特種部隊的表現更奇怪,他們沒有按總統的指令平亂,可也沒有像某些人想像那樣逼宮。他們只是作好部署,保護重點政府機關及部門,擺出一副枕戈待變的姿態。不過,像埃及這樣一個強人管治的政體,事態轉變可以非常快,可以非常急速;真正起決定性作用的不是上街的萬千人民,而是埃及國內最有組織、有最多資源的機構─軍隊,而是埃及的最重要盟友─美國。
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跟絕大部份強權政體一樣,領導人及政府能長期管治主要倚賴手上的重兵。不管經濟有多壞,人民有多水深火熱,這些政府都會優先把錢、把資源撥給軍人發薪,撥給軍隊買武器。北韓如是,敍利亞如是,巴基斯坦如是,埃及也一樣。換言之,軍隊比國內任何組織都不缺資源發展,都有更強的動員組織能力。任何人包括總統要管治全國,都必須得到軍隊的支持。過去三十年來穆巴拉克能坐穩江山,靠的就是軍隊特別是軍隊高層的全力支持。
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然而從最近幾天的情勢來看,埃及軍隊開始有點動搖,開始在考慮變動的可能性,軍隊的高層更已晉身為副總統,隨時準備接班。按這樣的佈局來看,穆巴拉克總統即使不致即時落台,他的權力、權威已大為削弱,不但無法像較早前計劃那樣扶植兒子接班,更可能在跟軍隊高層互諒互讓後交出權力,淡出政壇,避走外國。事實上對軍隊而言,最重要不是保住穆巴拉克這個人,而是軍隊的特殊地位。若果交出穆巴拉克能穩住局勢,避免流血,他們大概不會拒絕。

而對另一個要角美國來說,最重要是埃及政權留在親美、親以色列領袖手上。這個人不一定是穆巴拉克,可以是其他人。假若因為力撐穆巴拉克而開罪埃及人民,令埃及國內出現大量不滿、反對現狀的激進組織,那即使穆巴拉克能保住政權於一時,埃及過去三十年的穩定也將一去不返,埃及再也不能做西方世界的模範生。權衡之下,向埃及軍方、穆巴拉克施點壓力,促使強人有秩序、和平地下台顯然是更佳選擇。

過去幾十年,美國已遺棄了一大堆軍事強人,菲律寶的馬可斯、巴拿馬的諾列加、南越的吳廷琰等。穆巴拉克大概很快會成為新的犧牲品!
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felicity2010

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發表於 2011-2-3 09:35 AM | 只看該作者

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-2-3 09:37 AM 編輯
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Beyond Mubark
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* R1 w7 W6 p/ K1 X4 S公仔箱論壇The New York Times 公仔箱論壇+ @9 N) N+ p6 F# @. @) \
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The announcement from President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt that he would not run for re-election was welcome, if he means it, but it was unlikely to be enough. It is up to the Egyptian people to decide. But as a proud nationalist, Mr. Mubarak can best contribute to Egypt’s stability and future by stepping aside and letting an interim government takeover until truly free elections can be held.
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Mr. Mubarak spoke after President Obama’s special envoy urged him not to run again. On Tuesday evening, Mr. Obama said that he had told the Egyptian leader that “an orderly transition must be meaningful, it must be peaceful, and it must begin now.” That should be a clear warning to Mr. Mubarak that his time has passed. TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。. x9 e7 l3 @+ R8 K7 w- U8 j
On Tuesday, the eighth day of demonstrations, hundreds of thousands went to Liberation  Square in Cairo to demand Mr. Mubarak’s ouster. The protests were the largest and most diverse so far.
The demonstration was peaceful. The army had announced that it would not use force, a decision Mr. Obama praised on Tuesday night. Egyptians have expressed their gratitude, but the generals should not misread that enthusiasm. Egypt needs a real democracy, not another strongman. Washington,which provides $1.5 billion in military aid annually, should be sending that message to the army’s leaders.
Presidential elections are scheduled for September. We are skeptical they can be credible with Mr. Mubarak even nominally in charge. Whatever happens incoming days, the Egyptian government and the opposition will need to work together to create conditions for a fair vote.
The government must start by lifting the blackout on Internet and cellphone service. The 30-year-old state of emergency that has allowed it to detain and censor all critics must end. Egypt will need a truly independent electoral commission and international monitors to ensure an honest vote. All participants will have to agree to abide by the final results. tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb" ]; F& [% h6 P6 l3 Q6 T' x
This is made far more complicated by the fact that Egypt has few opposition groups — the result of Mr. Mubarak’s 30 years of authoritarian rule. The best organized is the banned Muslim Brotherhood.Mohamed El Baradei, the former top nuclear inspector for the United Nations and a Nobel laureate, is eager to lead.   Y3 }3 t' r" |4 z; w4 s* z3 S
Those with political ambitions must quickly explain their vision for Egypt— beyond ousting Mr. Mubarak. What rights would they guarantee in law? Will the Coptic Christian minority be protected and have a voice in their country? Will there be freedom of access to the Suez Canal? Will the government abide by the 1979 peace treaty with Israel?
Critics here and in Egypt have complained that President Obama has been too slow to cut his ties with Mr.Mubarak. Balancing national security concerns against moral responsibilities is never pretty. The United States has an important role in encouraging a swift and peaceful transition. President Obama is right to take pains to avoid any impression that Washington is orchestrating events. 5.39.217.76" q2 m! s  s3 [
The Iranian revolution is seared in our memories. There are no guarantees that Egypt’s next government will be as friendly to Washington as this one. And no guarantee that it will treat its own people any better. But Mr. Mubarak’s efforts to hold on to power, at all costs, will lead to more instability and fury. If Egypt devolves into chaos, it will feed extremism throughout the region.

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felicity2010

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發表於 2011-2-3 09:38 AM | 只看該作者

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-2-3 09:43 AM 編輯

Egypt protests: Mubarak shows his dark side
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By Simon Tisdall Guardian5.39.217.763 L2 [  r6 r! l+ R1 o- a
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Hosni Mubarak launched his counter-revolution today, sending waves of armed thugs to do battle with pro-democracy demonstrators in Cairo and other cities. The attacks, reportedly involving plainclothes police and vigilantes as well as pro-regime citizens, appeared to be carefully co-ordinated and timed. And the army, which only days earlier had sworn to protect "legitimate" rights of protesters, stood back and watched as the blood flowed.
This ugly turn of events should come as no surprise. What is unusual is that the regime tolerated such levels of unrest for nearly a week.
Mubarak was never quite a dictator in the Saddam Hussein or Robert Mugabe mould. His rule was more akin to the semi-enlightened despotism of an18th-century European monarch. But at bottom, it always depended on coercion and force. Today, the pretence of reasonableness was torn away. His dark side showed for all to see.公仔箱論壇$ d0 b: E7 i2 i6 ^( z5 ^3 ]
Mubarak's speech to the nation on Tuesday night was widely misinterpreted.The president was, by turns, angry, defiant and unrepentant. He offered no apologies, proposed no new initiatives, gave no promise that his son Gamal would not succeed him, and instead lectured Egyptians on the importance of order and stability (which he alone could assure).5.39.217.76+ e) f' ?' \3 h5 q( l
He appeared not to have learned anything from the past week. And his one"concession" – that he would not seek re-election – was no concession at all. After all, he had never said he would.. w2 u+ n- Y2 w* [- t' g" u$ m
This was not the performance of a defeated man. Mubarak may be down but he's not out. And judging by today's events in Tahrir  Square, he and the military-dominated clique around him clearly feel they have done enough, for now, to get the Americans off their backs, flex their still considerable muscle, and reclaim the streets for the regime. All the talk about reform and elections and negotiations can wait, whatever Barack Obama says.
Today's immediate message to the people from an unvanquished, still vicious regime: it's over – go home, or else.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb2 O+ L( a0 m& Z6 E# t) q; B9 o
There's a good to middling chance the counter-revolution strategy will work,given time. "Imagine yourself as Hosni Mubarak, master of Egypt for nearly 30 years. You're old, unwell, detested and addicted to power," wrote Wall Street Journal columnist Bret Stephens.2 e4 z3 K4 |* Z' Z- U
"You could have orchestrated a graceful exit by promising to preside over free and fair presidential elections later this year – elections in which the Mubarak name would not be on the ballot. Instead you gambled that you could ride out the protests and hold on. It's a pretty good gamble ..."TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。4 ?: F* M! w  R3 {3 e  @! ~
Reasons for believing Mubarak can not only survive the next eight months but also exert decisive, possibly fatally obstructive influence over Egypt's new direction are plentiful. As matters stand now, the regime is unreconstructed, the opposition is split, and the Americans are undecided.Despite his insistence on a swift, orderly transition, Obama has not withdrawn his personal support. In Brussels today, the EU also declined to demand Mubarak's immediate resignation. David Cameron said reforms must be implemented faster.$ _* C3 Z1 X0 f
All of them got a dusty brush-off. In an official statement, the Egyptian foreign ministry, still led by an old Mubarak crony, Ahmed Aboul Gheit,rejected US and European calls for the transition to start now. Calls from"foreign parties" were "aimed to incite the internal situation,"it said. In other words: get lost.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。' v* {1 k1 k* [/ m7 O/ ?# ?1 q
Mubarak and his close confidant and deputy, Omar Suleiman, have more cards to play as they foment a backlash and seek to regain control. As in the past,they can play on Israeli and American fears of an Islamist takeover. They can point out just how disastrous it might be if a new government tore up Egypt's peace treaty with Israel.5.39.217.764 P, I8 c. L. ~! T5 F: A
The opposition leader, Mohamed ElBaradei can easily be portrayed as untrustworthy.In fact, such a campaign is already under way. The Americans, for example,suspected him of pro-Iranian bias when he headed the UN's nuclear watchdog –and believe, too, that he is far too cosy with Turkey's neo-Islamist leaders.
As he tries to reassert his primacy, Mubarak can rely on the conservative Arab states of the Gulf, Saudi Arabia,Libya and Algeria,and on any number of African governments that have no wish to encourage popular revolution. Even old enemy Iranis privately ambivalent on this score.
He can offer negotiations to the opposition and hope to gain advantage from their refusal, so far, to participate. And if all this fails, the regime canal ways let loose its thugs and hooligans, just to emphasise that without state-imposed order, only chaos, not democracy, reigns.5.39.217.766 s& n% s3 d, p
Mubarak's counter-revolution is still a long shot. Too much has changed in Egypt for it ever to go back the way things were. But today saw the beginning of anew stage in a complex internal struggle whose ultimate outcome remains deeply uncertain.

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[時事討論] 強人可以捨 埃及不能 盧峯

[時事討論] 強人可以捨　埃及不能　盧峯